Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2018 4:59am

I think the more surprising feature was how close to the track of the centre some of the strongest gusts occurred, often with these systems the strong winds will be some distance south of the track which was partly the foundation of the forecast that I put out earlier, the track itself might have been marginally further north but I had based that on the fix available at 4 p.m. plus the guidance from the Arpege model which had perhaps the closest track available.

Probably the cause of the strongest gusts following the track of the centre (and not further south) was the extreme pressure oscillation with falls then rises of 7-8 mb per hour. For a meso-scale system that was rather unusual.

I've tracked probably hundreds of similar shaped lows across parts of North America too and it's rare to see this phenomenon of intense gusts occurring almost right where the low centre has been within 15-30 minutes. A more normal location to look for them would be 50-100 kms south or southwest of the centre. Looking at the wind speed guidance we had available, I think the models did even worse than a subjective forecast, they all lagged their strong wind corridor well south of their waves of low pressure, whether they got those right or not. This is why such strong gusts were being predicted for the south. I had the feeling from looking at Arpege that this might bust but there were quite strong winds at 49N 16W so I wasn't too sure if there might not be a developing double-centered low with two waves perhaps.

Anyway, a learning experience and the alert-warning zones only partially overlapped the actual delivery zone which meant that the southern portions of the alert were probably overdone, the northern parts worked out and then there was a zone further north that had stronger winds than predicted.

This won't happen each time with similar sized systems, but the pressure wave was probably the trigger. As to Rosenbloom's rule, I would substitute O'Donnell's rule, low pressure normally deviates from model tracks in whichever way will annoy the most weather enthusiasts. This never seems to fail.

i lovewine · 03-01-2018 5:00am

Very windy here in North Kildare. No thunder. Just let the mad cat out. He loves windy weather the the head case !!!. Stopped raining

i lovewine · 03-01-2018 5:02am

Very windy here in North Kildare. No thunder. Just let the mad cat out. He loves windy weather the the head case !!!. Stopped raining

textiles · 03-01-2018 5:42am

On north west Clare coast - relentless strong gales for over 12 hours and further set of violent gusts since before 04:00.
Ennis to Ennistymon road had a lot of surface water/spot flooding by 17:00 yesterday and roadside rivers very high. The estuary at Lahinch had almost reached the road at 17:00 coming up to high tide - if driving unavoidable this morning, be very careful on this road.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2018 5:47am

M6 buoy has been gusting to 58 knots past two hours, expect some more very strong gusts (100 to 120 km/hr) through at least central counties, possibly more widely north to south, lasting much of the day with not much organization to this, just a slow tightening of the westerly flow that probably peaks in the early afternoon, and a faster relaxation of it tomorrow evening and overnight.

Thursday strong wind potential seems to be downgraded on early model runs and would be confined to the southwest if anywhere. This keeps changing run to run and could yet again change before we get that far.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2018 5:58am

Gusts to 58 knots at both M6 and Mace Head 0400h, as you say this will keep up most of the day, strongest gradient wind is not until about 1300h on early guidance. This time it will probably be fairly equalized north to south although still a bit more concentrated through the Galway to Dublin corridor.

Nothing too organized about this, just the last of the mild Atlantic muck rushing to get out of the way of the pattern change due Thursday night.

On the other hand, guidance is quite toned down for Thursday wind potential, slight hint of a morning event for southwest coastal areas, otherwise just moderate west veering north most of the day.

igCorcaigh · 03-01-2018 6:02am

@MetEireann a few minutes ago tweeted:

Extremely windy if not stormy for a time today, with westerly winds bringing damaging gusts. Coastal damage and further flooding along the Atlantic coastline. Squally thundery downpours too, with surface flooding, becoming confined to the northwest later. Highs of 7 to 10 °C.

NIMAN · 03-01-2018 6:14am

Is this storm not hitting the UK at all?

See no reports on their media about it.

igCorcaigh · 03-01-2018 6:15am

NIMAN wrote: »

Is this storm not hitting the UK at all?

See no reports on their media about it.

It did. The storm has headed into the north Sea.

NIMAN · 03-01-2018 6:21am

Had it lost its power by the time it got to them?
Why no reporting of it?
Or are we talking about storms more than ever used to?

igCorcaigh · 03-01-2018 6:45am

NIMAN wrote: »

Had it lost its power by the time it got to them?
Why no reporting of it?
Or are we talking about storms more than ever used to?

I haven't followed much UK coverage today, it was probably worse here though.

Thousands of homes without power as Storm Eleanor arrives in Britain

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/02/storm-eleanor-met-office-high-wind-flood-warning-across-britain

100mph gust recorded in North pennines.

NollagShona · 03-01-2018 6:51am

Windy with gusts again here now in Tullamore

Steviesol · 03-01-2018 6:52am

A mad night by the sea in West Cork, never heard winds, hailstones, and thunder like it. Still not finished

ch750536 · 03-01-2018 7:30am

Steviesol wrote: »

A mad night by the sea in West Cork, never heard winds, hailstones, and thunder like it. Still not finished

Agreed, some of those hailstorms were stunning. Hit harder than my gran (the one from limerick city) .

listermint · 03-01-2018 7:34am

Not an ounce of sleep in Wicklow due to wind and rain. Haven't looked outside but I'd assume everything in the garden is all over the place

8kvscdpglqnyr4 · 03-01-2018 7:41am

Data for Oranmore Bridge - Water level
https://waterlevel.ie/0000029015/0001/

The station is 35 years old.
The high tide yesterday evening at 17:30 set a new record by 15cm

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 7:57am

Very noisy night near Arklow and still howling
Power is still on thankfully

The_Outsider · 03-01-2018 8:08am

Yup, a noisy night alright.
Peak winds during those squally showers.
Had a peak gust of 113km/h during a shower just before 5am.
Compared to the peak gust during yesterday evenings event of 97km.h

m17 · 03-01-2018 8:41am

Dominick street Galway 02/01/18

fred funk }{ · 03-01-2018 8:49am

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Very noisy night near Arklow and still howling
Power is still on thankfully

Yes. The raining driving into the bedroom window woke me about 2.00 and I've been awake since. The roof tiles have being lifting on the roof.

Samaris · 03-01-2018 9:04am

Went from being windy only to sudden hail dump last night before bed. Absolutely pounded the windows and nearly sent the cat up the chimney.

Woke up about 5 to what sounded like a roaring crack of thunder in SW Galway but not sure if I dreamed it. Anyone hear thunder Oughterard/south of in the wee hours?

Still manksome windy.

lottpaul · 03-01-2018 9:05am

Still extremely windy here in west Kerry - I'd usually sleep through anything but this kept me awake for a while. The main N86 road to Tralee was flooded at high tide yesterday evening in Blennerville and I'd imagine the same will happen today.

Robxxx7 · 03-01-2018 9:09am

Here in Mid-Kerry the wind is still howling..seems more sustained than yesterdays wind event with Eleanor ..

According to my weather station we got a max wind gust of 72.4kmh yesterday at 15:57 and then 73.4kmh this morning at 04:06 .. still getting the odd gust around 62kmh now ...