Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

Meteorite58

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munsterlegend

I love this site on a windy day. Have no idea what model it uses but looks in line with Met Eireann thinking on the storm.

https://www.ventusky.com

up for anything

Eleanor is appropriate on the 41st anniversary of the unexpected Big Gale on 2nd January, 1976. I hope she's not as terrible and frightening as that. I'll never forget my mother driving us back from Cork city to Freshford in County Kilkenny, where we'd visited my sister who'd just had her baby that morning, through the height of the storm with trees falling on the road in front of us along with telegraph poles and live electricity wires whipping off the road in front of us showering the ground with sparks. Scary as hell but also exhilarating. She got us home safely although when I look back now she must have felt as sick as hell throughout what seemed an endless drive but we had no money and just enough petrol so not much choice. She always wanted to drive the Paris to Dhakar rally - I think she'd have been well able.

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

MJohnston

I don't know how to accurately describe this but the latest GFS seems to put a lot of weight into the idea that the winds will be significantly reduced over land compared to most other models. I'll be curious to see how that works out for it.

It's a hard one to digest actually - on Meteociel the time division is too infrequent, so a lot of the event occurs between frames of the model. Whereas on Netweather the frames are hourly but the actual model resolution is much lower. Does the HD GFS only have 3 hour frames?

The general track does seem to correlate with the rest though, remarkable agreement on that.

Gaoth Laidir

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!


Met eireann might need to review their warning!

Shedbebreezy

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Look at this nonsense from the NAE... 190 kph in Donegal Bay!

Could this be your Michael Fish moment:p

ninebeanrows

A high impact event now looking more and more likely for the Greater Dublin region.

Latest Hirlam.

munsterlegend

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Could this be your Michael Fish moment:p

It would be very ironic given the username as well!

squarecircles

Could this be upgraded to a red alert for Dublin region I wonder ???

Rock Lesnar

I only heard about this, this morning, how does it look for meath, i heard south ulster mentioned so imagine us in north leinster will be effected

Cantona's Collars

Weathercheck wrote: »

A high impact event now looking more and more likely for the Greater Dublin region.

Latest Hirlam.

They always complain that people overhype bad weather,maybe they'll get a bit of it and fill Facebook with pics of blown over bins and smart comments.

goat2

everything nailed down here, bins in a nice sheltered spot, which part of the country is going to get worst hit,

George Sunsnow

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

I only heard about this, this morning, how does it look for meath, i heard south ulster mentioned so imagine us in north leinster will be effected

Severe up your way in the late evening according to the Hirlam WC posted

KingdomRushed

This is quite an interesting system. I guess the main reason it interests me (North Dublin) are the latest HIRLAM charts being posted by people which suggest that just for a change, orange warning winds may transpire under an orange warning for Dublin. Due to the the series of storms under which Dublin has been under orange (or in case of Ophelia) red warnings with little serious impact on the ground, I believe a sort of warning fatigue has set in with people. I work in an area (public infrasctructure) where we would take note of all warnings, however, I can sense that with Eleanor the general mood amongst people is 'meh' just another windy evening in store. I will watch with deep interest

downwiththatsor

KingdomRushed wrote: »

This is quite an interesting system. I guess the main reason it interests me (North Dublin) are the latest HIRLAM charts being posted by people which suggest that just for a change, orange warning winds may transpire under an orange warning for Dublin. Due to the the series of storms under which Dublin has been under orange (or in case of Ophelia) red warnings with little serious impact on the ground, I believe a sort of warning fatigue has set in with people. I work in an area (public infrasctructure) where we would take note of all warnings, however, I can sense that with Eleanor the general mood amongst people is 'meh' just another windy evening in store. I will watch with deep interest

Met Eireanns short range wind forecast shows worst winds in southwest 4-6pm c. 60 knots

squarecircles

KingdomRushed wrote: »

This is quite an interesting system. I guess the main reason it interests me (North Dublin) are the latest HIRLAM charts being posted by people which suggest that just for a change, orange warning winds may transpire under an orange warning for Dublin. Due to the the series of storms under which Dublin has been under orange (or in case of Ophelia) red warnings with little serious impact on the ground, I believe a sort of warning fatigue has set in with people. I work in an area (public infrasctructure) where we would take note of all warnings, however, I can sense that with Eleanor the general mood amongst people is 'meh' just another windy evening in store. I will watch with deep interest

I expect it to be the main story on the 9 news with John killrain standing beside the m50 doing a live link to Eileen Dunne about de terrible weder.

Shedbebreezy

The Met office just updated their warning for NI. Roughly 70% of NI in yellow warning zone,North coast none. They're still unsure of exact track.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A deepening area of low pressure, now named Storm Eleanor, will track east across the centre of the UK. This will bring gales and severe gales to Northern Ireland and northern England late on Tuesday and overnight, clearing eastern England during Wednesday morning. The strong winds may clip southern Scotland, with continued uncertainty in the northern extent. Further south, severe gales affect western and southern coasts this evening and overnight, with a very squally feature bringing a short spell of intense rainfall and very strong gusts to some inland localities. Wednesday daytime sees a very blustery day, with squally gusts accompanying showers in many areas. Throughout this period, gusts of 60-70 mph are likely along exposed coasts, with the more exposed locations seeing gusts close to 80 mph. Inland gusts exceeding 60 mph are possible.

Gaoth Laidir

11Z TAFs still have max 50 knots for Dublin but 58 knots for Casement. Still 60 knots for Shannon, 52 for Cork.

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

11Z TAFs still have max 50 knots for Dublin but 58 knots for Casement. Still 60 knots for Shannon, 52 for Cork.

Is that max gusts or max sustained?

Gaoth Laidir

Akrasia wrote: »

Is that max gusts or max sustained?

Max gust.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

11Z TAFs still have max 50 knots for Dublin but 58 knots for Casement. Still 60 knots for Shannon, 52 for Cork.

Max gust 35 knots for Sligo so they're obviously not considering the NAE.

ninebeanrows

TAFS can be occasionally be misleading. at 50 knots it means the wind is likely to gust to between 41 and 59 knots, unless there are local arrangements most wind gust tafs just need to be within 10 knots of the actual.

Gaoth Laidir

Weathercheck wrote: »

TAFS can be occasionally be misleading. at 50 knots it means the wind is likely to gust to between 41 and 59 knots, unless there are local arrangements most wind gust tafs just need to be within 10 knots of the actual.

I haven't heard that before. So the 58 at Casement, what does that mean?

Snowbiee21

https://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw This could be an interesting site to tune into later on this evening !

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I haven't heard that before. So the 58 at Casement, what does that mean?

The TAF would be correct and would not need to be amended if the observed wind gusted to 67kt, if it hit 68kt it would have to be amended.

Teddy1690

I dunno there is bright sunny skies here in Kildare no even wind seems strange they say to expect storm in just few hours I thought should be atleast cold out but yet all is mild. debating whether to secure the garden furniture or not

Gaoth Laidir

Weathercheck wrote: »

The TAF would be correct and would not need to be amended if the observed wind gusted to 67kt, if it hit 68kt it would have to be amended.

Every day's a school day. The WMO manual on codes doesn't state this rule anywhere in its TAF section.

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Every day's a school day. The WMO manual on codes doesn't state this rule anywhere in its TAF section.

Each aviation authority have different arrangements as far as i understand. In general its 10kt for Irish Airports but i believe it is just 5kt for Dublin Airport.