Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

Treepole · 02-01-2018 2:49pm

The timing and general lack of awareness of this storm could pose a serious danger to people. The storm will be moving up through the country at a time when a lot of people will be on the roads. I am due to be travelling from Portlaoise to Limerick this evening at 5 but I've deferred leaving until later tonight.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 2:53pm

The 18Z aviation chart shows a 982-hPa low centred over Knock, moving northeastwards at 40 knots. Occasional heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms across much of the country.

DOCARCH · 02-01-2018 2:54pm

Treepole wrote: »

The timing and general lack of awareness of this storm could pose a serious danger to people.

Indeed....

The media do not have appeared to latch on to this one.

pjohnson · 02-01-2018 2:55pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Follow these excellent short range charts La.De.Da, they give a good idea for 2 to 3 hours ahead.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp

As it stands, anytime between 5 and 7pm tonight looks potentially dodgy for Co. Tipp.

I struggle badly with these graphs. When will Galway Coast be hit?

Larbre34 · 02-01-2018 2:57pm

pjohnson wrote: »

I struggle badly with these graphs. When will Galway Coast be hit?

Yes, like a m***** f*****.

pjohnson · 02-01-2018 2:58pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes, like a m**** fu****.

I can see that much. I just wondered when timewise. Wanna know if/when I can get home

Larbre34 · 02-01-2018 3:00pm

pjohnson wrote: »

I can see that much. I just wondered when timewise. Wanna know if/when I can get home

5-10pm shall be a dangerous window, and after that even main roads may have debris hazards. Id be going soon.

fraxinus1 · 02-01-2018 3:01pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed....

The media do not have appeared to latch on to this one.

Maybe the media are beginning to suffer weather warning fatigue? I’m not saying Eleanor isn’t going to happen but for the last 3 months it appears that there has been at least a yellow warning every second day with 90% of the population left scratching their heads. I said this was a possibility.

I texted my son in west dublin and told him about the severe winds and he joked about the garden bench blowing over. We have become immune.

JCX BXC · 02-01-2018 3:01pm

Looking at the MÉ short range, the worst winds can be expected here in West Clare! Timing around 5pm.

pjohnson · 02-01-2018 3:02pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

5-10pm shall be a dangerous window, and after that even main roads may have debris hazards. Id be going soon.

Thank You!

Cantona's Collars · 02-01-2018 3:05pm

Psychologeeee wrote: »

Currently driving from Louth to Wexford. Hoping to stay ahead of the storm but the sky ahead on the m50 looks ominous

You'll be home before it.Im in Wexford and it's a blanket of grey. Won't be any wind or rain for a couple of hours yet.

Drumpot · 02-01-2018 3:06pm

Thanks for all the information, this is such a superb resource, particularly trying to figure out how careful one needs to be during these events.

I live in bettystown, Co Meath, East Coast. We have flooding issues in our estate and high tide is due at 11.58. Is there any chance this storm will supercharge the surge?

Also, how serious should we take this warning ? From reading through this thread, I take it will be a quick storm passing over, but it has the potential to have those erratic speedy winds (cant remember the name).

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 3:08pm

UK Met Office aviation chart for 18Z. A warning of boundary level sea spray thrown in there for good effect!

Their Spot Wind forecast, showing 50-knot winds at 1000 ft and 60 knots at 2000 ft in the south (5230N 0730W)

e.g. "01 230 20 +10"

01 = 1000 ft
230 50 = direction 230 degrees, speed 50 knots
+10 = temperature +10 degrees Celsius

pjohnson · 02-01-2018 3:08pm

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks for all the information, this is such a superb resource, particularly trying to figure out how careful one needs to be during these events.

I live in bettystown, Co Meath, East Coast. We have flooding issues in our estate and high tide is due at 11.58. Is there any chance this storm will supercharge the surge?

Also, how serious should we take this warning ? From reading through this thread, I take it will be a quick storm passing over, but it has the potential to have those erratic speedy winds (cant remember the name).

These threads are a godsend. These charts are bloody confusing. Major respect to the experts helping explain these! (Even if they get too technical for an eejit like me with the technical stuff haha, always someone happy to break it down)

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 3:12pm

Warnings now out for Dublin and Casement too. Casement slightly windier than Dublin.

Dublin
EIDW AD WRNG 02 VALID 021800/030000 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 0218/0220 W 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 0222/0224 W 25-30 MAX 35-40 FCST =

Casement
EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 021700/030000 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 0218/0220 W 30-35 MAX 50-55 BECMG 0222/0224 W 25-30 MAX 35-40 FCST =

Shannon
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 021600/030000 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 0216/0218 W 30-35 MAX 50-55 BECMG 0220/0322 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

Cork
EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 021500/030000 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 0215/0217 WSW 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 0217/1219 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

Larbre34 · 02-01-2018 3:12pm

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks for all the information, this is such a superb resource, particularly trying to figure out how careful one needs to be during these events.

I live in bettystown, Co Meath, East Coast. We have flooding issues in our estate and high tide is due at 11.58. Is there any chance this storm will supercharge the surge?

Also, how serious should we take this warning ? From reading through this thread, I take it will be a quick storm passing over, but it has the potential to have those erratic speedy winds (cant remember the name).

If the low pressure centre is proximate to your position and the northerly /easterly variation times badly with high tide, you could certainly have an issue with flooding

q85dw7osi4lebg · 02-01-2018 3:16pm

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks for all the information, this is such a superb resource, particularly trying to figure out how careful one needs to be during these events.

I live in bettystown, Co Meath, East Coast. We have flooding issues in our estate and high tide is due at 11.58. Is there any chance this storm will supercharge the surge?

Also, how serious should we take this warning ? From reading through this thread, I take it will be a quick storm passing over, but it has the potential to have those erratic speedy winds (cant remember the name).

It's a 5.0m tide tonight for Laytown / Btown which is about 80% of it's maximum high tide range. One to watch, hopefully storm will have passed by the time it's full in.

redsteveireland · 02-01-2018 3:17pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Maybe the media are beginning to suffer weather warning fatigue? I’m not saying Eleanor isn’t going to happen but for the last 3 months it appears that there has been at least a yellow warning every second day with 90% of the population left scratching their heads. I said this was a possibility.

I texted my son in west dublin and told him about the severe winds and he joked about the garden bench blowing over. We have become immune.

I have seen one irish website/FB page joking at the possibility of another weather warning on more than one occasion in the last few weeks.

This shows even the tabloids are aware of the weather warning fatique.

Without this forum and the information I have picked up while here I think I would feel the same way.

Soccarboy11 · 02-01-2018 3:17pm

Rain just got very heavy here in Cork City. Looks like it's part of the system on the graphs?

Mr_A · 02-01-2018 3:26pm

Updated Met Eireann Orange Warning

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Westerly winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h. with gusts of 110 to 130km/h expected at times overnight and into Wednesday mainly in coastal fringes and on high ground
Issued:
Tuesday 02 January 2018 14:00
Valid:
Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 14:00

mickger844posts · 02-01-2018 3:32pm

Rain starting here in Waterford City. Winds relatively calm but obviously that will change soon. For us in the South East a serious storm ahead and in fact quiet a few areas that are not used to winds of this ferocity.

www.waterfordweather.com

Pangea · 02-01-2018 3:34pm

The latest forecast from Met UK show the centre of Eleanor crossing Donegal Bay

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/posts/10155465573779209

Gaoth Laidir · 02-01-2018 3:37pm

Latest TAF for Casement. Gusting 55 knots between 6-9 pm.

TAF EIME 021400Z 0215/0224 23018G28KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030
TEMPO 0215/0218 7000 -RA BKN013
BECMG 0216/0218 20022G35KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0216/0221 5000 RA BKN008
BECMG 0218/0220 26030G45KT
TEMPO 0218/0221 26035G55KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0221/0224 5000 SHRA SCT018CB=

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2018 3:38pm

This looks a very nasty storm for Dublin, explosively deepening as it moves of the east coast, the tightest gradient moves over the capital. Luckily it moves away very rapidly.

up for anything · 02-01-2018 3:39pm

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Maybe the media are beginning to suffer weather warning fatigue? I’m not saying Eleanor isn’t going to happen but for the last 3 months it appears that there has been at least a yellow warning every second day with 90% of the population left scratching their heads. I said this was a possibility.

I texted my son in west dublin and told him about the severe winds and he joked about the garden bench blowing over. We have become immune.

There's always one! Weather warnings aren't given lightly and they're to prevent loss of life and limb. If people want to ignore them, become immune to them or make light of them that is their perogative but I bet the people who lose their lives in these storms wish they'd paid more attention to the warnings never mind their grieving families.