Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

Villain

Gonzo wrote: »

Sky News weather for what its worth is showing a peppering of wintry showers tomorrow on the east coast south of Dublin with mostly Wicklow, Carlow and Wexford at risk. The wicklow mountains could see some lying snow.

Yep hence my post earlier about going up Lugnaquilla, Harmonie has it as snow only on mountains the ECM Meteogram show dew point well above 0c for Kilkenny.

Gaoth Laidir

And have a look upwind to our north and east and there's very little snow falling.

Mafra

A little snow last night on Mt Leinster

Meteorite58

Some mighty cold temperatures showing up for Sun Morning, climbing to between 1C to 5C during the day and falling rapidly below freezing in many places again towards dark. Very cold Sun night/ Mon morning as well. Should be some good clear skies over the weekend for many, looking forward to getting into the garden after all the rough weather here in Kerry.

EDIT: Note these are 5cm above the ground temperatures.

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some mighty cold temperatures showing up for Sun Morning, climbing to between 1C to 5C during the day and falling rapidly below freezing in many places again towards dark. Very cold Sun night/ Mon morning as well. Should be some good clear skies over the weekend for many, looking forward to getting into the garden after all the rough weather here in Kerry.

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

Here is the 2m chart for the same time.

q85dw7osi4lebg

So that's why my feet are always colder than my head.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

What's the cause of that? Radiated cold from the ground / lack of air circulation?

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

What's the cause of that? Radiated cold from the ground / lack of air circulation?

Radiated heat from the ground. If you look at the grass minimum temperatures (Gmin) on the "Yesterday's Weather" page on met.ie after a clear night you'll see the difference between it and the screen temperature (1.5 metres). The grass minimum temperature is measured with a probe placed in the tips of the blades of grass.

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.....

GL, I wouldnt ever look for a job in the Indo or the Daily Mail if I were you.

Meteorite58

That chart shows temperature 5 cm above the ground, not the normal 2 m temperature. Temperature this close to the ground will be several degrees colder on a clear winter's night.

Ooops, missed that.

JCX BXC

Dublin Airport at 1:30am ~ -1c
Dublin Airport at 2:30am ~ +3c

Fair temperature rise, and without major changes in cloud or wind evident on the METAR.

I see a shower passing to the south of the airport though.

Calibos

Sharp frost and white car roofs in Bray all night.

2:40am and very heavy 10 minute hail shower in Bray.

Kermit.de.frog

Unfortunately there will be no phase 2 but frost, ice a few wintry showers for the next couple of days and as Meteorite points out some very cold minima away from windward coasts.

Below average temperatures next week.

Another attempt to bring in colder temperatures from the east later next week is a possibility. That high pressure over Scandinavia is not going anywhere fast. If we get undercutting from the Atlantic it's game on to drag in deeper cold.

M.T. Cranium

The Atlantic is lying down for a nap after all that hard work, but there's no real Siberian connection to these northern highs yet, so we will just have to take what we can get, mixed wintry showers in streamers, maybe snow in one or two locations (out of a hundred). Drive up high and you may see some. Could get a bit of thunder later today in these streamers.

The interesting thing is, none of the Atlantic fronts that try to push in (according to the guidance at any rate) bring much mild air with them, they sort of run out of that before passing 20W and arrive almost border-line cold enough for sleet. Should be a frustrating week ahead for both forecasters and snow lovers but if you like sleet, graupel and other mixed crud, then this is your golden age.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

....if you like sleet, graupel and other mixed crud, then this is your golden age.

George Sunsnow

Heavy Squally hail showers for the past several hours in a nasty NE wind here near Arklow

George Sunsnow

The snow line on these showers coming into Wicklow is above 600 mtrs
I can see a slight dusting on top of Croghan mtn for example
They were heavy so if snow was falling further down it would definitely have settled
So No snow from these where anyone actually lives

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Dublin Airport at 1:30am ~ -1c
Dublin Airport at 2:30am ~ +3c

Fair temperature rise, and without major changes in cloud or wind evident on the METAR.

I see a shower passing to the south of the airport though.

There was a slight increase in wind that may have been just enough to mix out the cold surface layer. It had been very calm around midnight. There was also a lowering of the cirrus at 1 am (from 25;000 to 20,000 ft) which may have led to some temperaure rise later on.

To fill in the gaps the exact winds and temperatures from the hourly synops were

01:00 040 6 kts 0.0 °C dp -0.3
02:00 050 7 kts 0.8 °C dp 0.3
03:00 060 7 kts 3.2 °C dp 2.3
04:00 060 13 kt 4.2 °C dp 2 3

I note that none of the hourly synops all night showed any negative temperature (0.0 at 1 am was the lowest), but still the minimum was reported as -1.0 °C by 6 am, so this must have briefly occurred between 01:00 and 01:30.

carltonleon

Cars were frosted over last night at about 9pm here in Swords. So I awoke expecting to find a lovely crisp frosty morning...... what did I find ? Nothing, no frost, not even a hint of it. All gone

sjb25

carltonleon wrote: »

Cars were frosted over last night at about 9pm here in Swords. So I awoke expecting to find a lovely crisp frosty morning...... what did I find ? Nothing, no frost, not even a hint of it. All gone

Same here I awoke To the same all gone we can’t even get a good frost anymore

Samsgirl

A friend in Michigan sent me this last night. Now, that's cold!!!

prunudo

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The snow line on these showers coming into Wicklow is above 600 mtrs
I can see a slight dusting on top of Croghan mtn for example
They were heavy so if snow was falling further down it would definitely have settled
So No snow from these where anyone actually lives

Nothing on Djouce, and its 730m ish.

Billcarson

Well this weekends cold snap has started off on a rather pathetic note. 6.7 c here atm lol,I presume the temps will fall back later ( in a few hrs).

George Sunsnow

jvan wrote: »

Nothing on Djouce, and its 730m ish.

I can see Djouce from here believe it or not down in Arklow looking North way to the east of our view of lug
It’s possible it may have escaped the most of the precip
Certainly if it had have got what came in down here it would be white on top

By the way,even though I’m píssed off with poor modeling lately,I still believe somethings got to give
Hopefully from the northeast

Billcarson

I'm just waiting for the early 2020s to produce the goods , anything we get before then or maybe 2019 is a bonus imo.

PixelTrawler

Was surprised to wake up here in D15 to find it 5c and cloudy. Expected 0c and some sun. Got up early anyway to get the "sunrise" out at Pormarnock. All I got was frozen fingers, almost too cold to press the buttons on the camera.

Strong constant wind was coming off the sea with a significant wind chill

Shedbebreezy

Billcarson wrote: »

I'm just waiting for the early 2020s to produce the goods , anything we get before then or maybe 2019 is a bonus imo.

What's that based on?

JCX BXC

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

What's that based on?

Nothing except the infrequency of these events I assume.

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

Nothing except the infrequency of these events I assume.

There was a polish scientist working in one of the UK universities talking on sk news lately about a potential new Maunder Minimum in about 20 years time
So look after yourself and eat healthily


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm

vicwatson

Samsgirl wrote: »

A friend in Michigan sent me this last night. Now, that's cold!!!

Wait, the realfeel is warmer that the actual temperature? or maybe the realfeel temp is in F ?