Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

squarecircles

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

So, just watched Gerry Murphy's forecast and turning unsettled again as the Atlantic returns after this brief interlude of quiet weather.
At least the bull**** theory that a warm North America in winter can influence our weather can be tossed into the bin.
Time now for the last throw of the dice? Any sign of a SSW? :rolleyes:
Moan over.

You could see the look of relief on his face.

George Sunsnow

You’d want a sudden one which I presume wouldn’t be modeled because it’s sudden (not that even medium range sw modeling should be trusted if it’s the same super models as the phantom easterlies)
A warm North America is probably exactly what we need
A lack of energy coming out of there might be the missing ingredient with a split vortex up north?

igCorcaigh

STATUS ORANGE

Low Temperature Warning for Munster, Inland areas of Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan
Turning very cold tonight with lowest temperatures falling between -4 and -6 degrees away from southern and eastern coasts.

Issued:Sunday 07 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Sunday 07 January 2018 21:00 to Monday 08 January 2018 10:00

JCX BXC

Should be a beautiful frost in the morning.

Still an appreciable amount of frost in the shade here at 2pm here in West Clare, I've missed days like this. Last proper lasting frost was November 2016.

Elmer Blooker

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A warm North America is probably exactly what we need
A lack of energy coming out of there might be the missing ingredient with a split vortex up north?

A warm North America (in winter) may make Atlantic storms that bit less ferocious but when signs of blocking appear to our east and raise our hopes the Atlantic will win 99 times out of a 100 regardless of whats going on the North American continent.

Maybe next winter the solar minimum might give us something to get excited about but even then theres always the possibility that blocking will be in the "wrong" place and places like Greece, Italy and even North Africa go into the freezer!

HighLine

igCorcaigh wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Low Temperature Warning for Munster, Inland areas of Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan
Turning very cold tonight with lowest temperatures falling between -4 and -6 degrees away from southern and eastern coasts.

Issued:Sunday 07 January 2018 13:00
Valid:Sunday 07 January 2018 21:00 to Monday 08 January 2018 10:00

The additional degree lower than last night constitutes an orange warning?
As is with orange warnings... be prepared for this onslaught of severe weather that will bear down on us this January night. :cool:

ZX7R

Just back from a lovely buggy ride, with my son he is special needs, wicklow mountains have a nice dusting of snow birds singing and beautiful sunshine, you can give me this cold crisp and sunny weather for the rest of the winter, just to see how happy my boy is to get out of the house

igCorcaigh

Icy roads and footpaths are things people (and local authorities) need to be prepared for.

ninebeanrows

Must be said the need for an Orange national warning for temperatures hitting -5 or -6 degrees for one night in January is quite odd.

But that is what the warning system says to do - so the Mets in Met Eireann therefore must issue it.

squarecircles

HighLine wrote: »

The additional degree lower than last night constitutes an orange warning?
As is with orange warnings... be prepared for this onslaught of severe weather that will bear down on us this January night. :cool:

Colour coded Warnings have criteria,the criteria has been met for such conditions.

What could possibly go wrong...sigh.

UpTheHillFrom

Just back from the top of Croghan, Co Wicklow, there was a light dusting of snow in the shadows above 500m asl, not enough for a snowball.

fraxinus1

Got the RTÉ news alert on my phone stating that an orange warning was issued for tonight. Heart jumped as I thought either a sudden nowcast snowfall coming or it’s going to get really cold tonight..... -9 or -10...... only to read it’s -6! An orange warning does appear excessive. I know criteria have been meet but even by Irish standards, it’s hardly that severe. -6 and lower occurs at least once a year, practically every year.

squarecircles

Maybe they should have subcategories within each colour code warning, so you could have a moderate orange warning for central counties of Connacht and a severe yellow warning for coastal Connacht for example.

And then another simple straightforward standard Warning system for non incensed non weather fanatic Joe public.

Just so as to make things clearer.

JCX BXC

No need for the RTE alert, although not much seems to trigger them.

While it is a little excessive imo, it's worth keeping in mind for people for slippy footpaths etc and keeping themselves warm. An elderly woman near me had a bad fall this morning and fractured her elbow, very lucky considering she recently had a hip replacement.

There's not much between a yellow and orange warning if you look at the ME criteria.

MJohnston

squarecircles wrote: »

Maybe they should have subcategories within each colour code warning, so you could have a moderate orange warning for central counties of Connacht and a severe yellow warning for coastal Connacht for example.

And then another simple straightforward standard Warning system for non incensed non weather fanatic Joe public.

Just so as to make things clearer.

They do have subcategories in essence though because they have the warning level and then they quantify exactly what is triggering it, along with a brief forecast of expectations. I seriously don't know why that is too difficult for some of the general public to understand!

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Should be a beautiful frost in the morning.

Still an appreciable amount of frost in the shade here at 2pm here in West Clare, I've missed days like this. Last proper lasting frost was November 2016.

And Shannon has the most severe frost warning of all the airports so enjoy the frost!


EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 071600/081200 FROST MOD GND AND FBL AIR DEPOSITIONS LIKELY BECMG 0722/0801 SEV GND and MOD Air FCST =

Less severe warnings at the other airports.

Soccarboy11

grass is frozen and water on the floor is frozen outside my home in Cork City already. Car shows 1 degree, but ground must be colder!

Oops69

not even a yellow warning in uk, yet temps there reportedly due to hit -11, is there an inconsistency in applying the warnings , perhaps the UK trying to be different .....again ?

Villain

Nice windchill on Lug today

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/949998725564456960

ZX7R

Oops69 wrote: »

not even a yellow warning in uk, yet temps there reportedly due to hit -11, is there an inconsistency in applying the warnings , perhaps the UK trying to be different .....again ?

I posted similar in another thread, there is in fact 3 yellow weather warnings in UK for 3 different areas

Oops69

ZX7R wrote: »

I posted similar in another thread, there is in fact 3 yellow weather warnings in UK for 3 different areas

checked meteoalarm again , yes thanks for correction ,but it does seem strange that all of the republic has an orange warning and all of northern ireland has no warning at all , not even a yellow .

ZX7R

Oops69 wrote: »

checked meteoalarm again , yes thanks for correction ,but it does seem strange that all of the republic has an orange warning and all of northern ireland has no warning at all , not even a yellow .

Two different met offices, two different ways of doing there forecasts and warnings

Meteorite58

-1.2C here near Tralee.

Oops69

ZX7R wrote: »

Two different met offices, two different ways of doing there forecasts and warnings

fair enough, I thought it was a european standardised protocol but obviously not, thanks.

JCX BXC

Oops69 wrote: »

fair enough, I thought it was a european standardised protocol but obviously not, thanks.

It couldn't possibly by European standardized! Imagine a temperature of -2c in Lisbon? Imagine +40c in Ireland!

Cloudio9

Getting orange alert text alerts from fingal county council....a part of the country that may not even go below freezing tonight. It’s just normal January weather FFS no need for this.

MJohnston

Oops69 wrote: »

fair enough, I thought it was a european standardised protocol but obviously not, thanks.

There is an EU wide standard, Meteoalarm, but it standardises the Green-Yellow-Orange-Red levels of warnings, and possibly even the different categories of weather that the warnings apply to (rain, snow, wind, etc.) but it doesn't specify the criteria for triggering each warning level.

JCX BXC

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Getting orange alert text alerts from fingal county council....a part of the country that may not even go below freezing tonight. It’s just normal January weather FFS no need for this.

The warning clearly states inland areas of Leinster.

Planet X

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Getting orange alert text alerts from fingal county council....a part of the country that may not even go below freezing tonight. It’s just normal January weather FFS no need for this.

Completely agreed but......
.......there are people who'll whinge and say that they weren't told, and they slipped or something

ZX7R

MJohnston wrote: »

There is an EU wide standard, Meteoalarm, but it standardises the Green-Yellow-Orange-Red levels of warnings, and possibly even the different categories of weather that the warnings apply to (rain, snow, wind, etc.) but it doesn't specify the criteria for triggering each warning level.

Very well explained.
Funny thing is when my wife's family (Polish) contact her because they see warnings on meteoalarm and ring to make sure everything is ok, like this evening when they saw a orange warning for cold. Trying to explain it's only going to be - 6 not - 20