Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Cork Boy 53

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

The "i dont know how many days we have now of unbroken sunshine" here in north meath contunues, im actually running out of words at this stage to describe the weather, hopefully charts for next week are wrong and we keep the warmth and the sun

Wishful thinking I am sorry to say.

Rock Lesnar

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Wishful thinking I am sorry to say.

Im happy with any type of dry weather to be honest, hot sunny, cloudy cool, i wont be complaining as long as its not constantly wet

m17

Galway today 13.30

Harry Palmr

I'll stand out in the rain when it comes I'm now getting a bit bored with this.

Just had a look at Mick weather charts for Waterford City - rainfall tally June 0 mm, since May 20th 8 mm .

pauldry

jaysis dont say that

never bored with this

sryanbruen

__Further outlook and longer range update__

I think this post is notable enough to be an update to the further outlook and longer range weather. I occasionally do these longer range updates to MT's forecasts as you've been seeing through the Spring because I feel that something is afoot and needs to be said.

The outlook that was looking very cool and wet or average temperatures and wet has seemed to be thrown away by the models today. They have massively downgraded the return of the westerlies of next week. It looks as though that we're going to be cutting off the easterly flow by Monday or Tuesday and by then, the Azores is wanting to throw up a ridge towards us keeping things warm and dry although that poses the risk of cloudier conditions than recently further west. The jet stream is likely (by current guidance) to lie to the west of Ireland by Thursday next week bringing in low pressure from the Atlantic but this really struggles to push eastwards courtesy of high pressure building to the east again and over central Europe. This tries to send the jet stream back out and into the Atlantic. The GFS continues to show a west-east split in its FI range but just at the end of the ECM model run, the Azores high successfully ridges in over Ireland by Sunday 17th June which would bring us back to warm and dry conditions quickly especially over the southern half of Ireland. Keep in mind, that's +240 hours away and we have enough uncertainty up to Thursday next week. The uncertainty is noted by this dramatic change from the models. It has been a common theme over the past week that the westerlies were going to return sometime next week. Earlier this week, it was looking like Tuesday was going to be that day and now it's Thursday for the west and Friday for the east on today's model runs but even then, it's a very weak jet stream in against a strengthening block of high pressure to the east.

Rainfall totals have also decreased on the runs today with very little rain in the outlook for the south and east of the country, a bit more for the north and west but certainly no deluge or anything alarming.

As far as I can see here, we're still waiting to see where we're going to go next week especially the latter half. The return of the westerlies seems to have backdated day by day but I think it's going to happen. I mean it has to eventually. Up to Wednesday, expect more warm and dry weather with temperatures in the high teens and low 20s though getting into the mid-20s in some places. There continues to be the threat of thundery showers at times though.

If (a big if) some of the longer range models are right, we could have a very dry and warm July too with a continuation of what Summer has brought so far.

Keep a watch out on the forum. I will continue to be posting updates on the subject.

Artane2002

Just another lovely day in Dublin . I know it's only been 8 days but June has been beautiful so far!

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Of course July 2013 it was 30c or near it the day of the twins 2nd birthday.

But day 16 now and 17 and 18 sure to come.

How many days over 20c were in 1976 or 1995

40 to 60?

How many in NW.

The great thing about getting weather like this in Summer is that the overall weather pattern can often get stuck and whatever you get youre stuck with

Low eternally spinning over Biscay steering warmth from the East.

But retrogressive High in place next week will mean 17 to 20c so the 17 will be in Sligo.

Still essentially dry though

Remember 2007 when Britain was stuck in floods n had to listen to Rihanna say umbrella ella non stop.

Whats the early Summer song 2018?

Don't know because I have barely listened to new music ever since 2016 as I've been finding it boring and crap.

Yes I do, parts of Ireland had some localised floods at times too and even a tornado in Galway if I remember correctly around 21st July. A lot of people seem to remember the dry and warm spell of early June 2007 before the heavy rain took over until mid-August with little break especially in July. However, not a lot of people seem to remember that the end of August and beginning of September 2007 was very anticyclonic which was then followed by a very dry Autumn though Winter was zonal but did have some teasers for the cold winters of the next 3 years after.

Not sure because Met Éireann's historical data on their site for Markree Castle doesn't go back that far (even though its records go back before 1900 and the station holds Ireland's all-time lowest minimum temperature). Offaly was the place to be in 1976 as Boora in the county had 5 consecutive days with a maximum of at least 30c at the end of June/start of July that year, probably unheard of in Ireland.

A few stations that do go back that far on their site in that part of Ireland that I know of are Glenties, Co. Donegal, Belmullet and Claremorris, Co. Mayo.

Glenties had 20c or more every day from June 24th (bar the 26th) to July 8th (bar the 6th) 1976 (13 days). The same station then recorded 20c or more every day from August 14th-29th 1976 (16 consecutive days). In 1995, Glenties had 20c or more every day from June 22nd to July 1st (10 consecutive days) and July 23rd to August 22nd (31 consecutive days). Claremorris and Belmullet don't really have sustained periods of 20c or more in both Summers.

Xenji

Lovely evening in Castlebar, slightly cooler with a maximum of 22.6C, but dry all day and no thunder.

Donegal Storm

Another beautiful day in Kildare, warm and sunny with high cloud. Grass is noticeably yellowing here now so could do with a decent thunderstorm but I'd gladly take another month of this

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1005162885176348677

JCX BXC

No rain today in West Clare, Max of 24.7c, currently 22c with a beautiful indoor temperature of 27.0c. The fan is on.

Cork Boy 53

Michelle Dillon has just forecast rain spreading from the west on Wednesday. As far as ME are concerned the change looks to be nailed on for then.

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Michelle Dillon has just forecast rain spreading from the west on Wednesday. As far as ME are concerned the change looks to be nailed on for then.

Small differences from GFS runs today, 06z delays it somewhat whilst the 0z and 12z bring the rain into the very west by 21:00. Doesn't look heavy on the 0z and 06z runs though the 12z does somewhat out to the west.

0z



06z



12z

mg1982

Noticeably cooler here this evening looks like we will be getting temps in the high teens from tomorrow. I have an overweight golden retriever here who will be delighted to see the back of this heatwave. South sligo.

Cantona's Collars

Johnstown Castle had 18.9

It's amazing how a sea breeze can bring down temps even a few Kms from the coast. Further inland it was 4 to 5 degrees warmer.
The forecast for next week looks like the SE will see little if any rain even if temps fall back a bit. Hopefully the trend will go as talked about here and sunny,warm weather becomes dominant again later in the month and into July.

Graces7

AllForIt wrote: »

I'm in west Mayo :pac:

OK so keep the midges! I am offshore on an island "famous" for the midges.. Waiting for a breeze before i can go out ..whistling for a wind

Graces7

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Johnstown Castle had 18.9

It's amazing how a sea breeze can bring down temps even a few Kms from the coast. Further inland it was 4 to 5 degrees warmer.
The forecast for next week looks like the SE will see little if any rain even if temps fall back a bit. Hopefully the trend will go as talked about here and sunny,warm weather becomes dominant again later in the month and into July.

I have two "climates"here'; at the back with the ocean literally a field away a delicious cool breeze and at the front an oven

Clonmel1000

Another exceptional morning here made all the more exceptional by being out of the office and able to enjoy it. Thanks be to God for this spell it’s been wonderful and you can see how much happier upbeat people are.

JCX BXC

Relentlessly cloudy so far in West Clare this morning, with a very dense fog around sunrise.

DOCARCH

Stunning day in Dublin 16. Clear blue skies/light breeze. 22.0c now.

Donegal Storm

Warm and cloudless yet again, this is the best spell of weather I can remember in years

Harry Palmr

20c at 9 Am which is a bit much! Not getting warmer though due to some highish cloud building up.

SleetAndSnow

21 degrees at 11:30 in cork city (crazy!) Was very sunny but clouding over a bit now.

sryanbruen

It was a sunny early morning but now plenty of cloud at Grange with very hazy sunny spells.

highdef

sryanbruen wrote: »

It was a sunny early morning but now plenty of cloud at Grange with very hazy sunny spells.

Ah ****. I just left my house in North Kildare where it's almost into the mid twenties and sunny and am now en route to Howth, for a walk around the Head. Hopefully it's just temporary cloud as I don't see anything significant on satellite.

sryanbruen

highdef wrote: »

Ah ****. I just left my house in North Kildare where it's almost into the mid twenties and sunny and am now en route to Howth, for a walk around the Head. Hopefully it's just temporary cloud as I don't see anything significant on satellite.

Yeah, I can see a patch of blue skies just down the road from me, it's quite high cloud and mist. Still great conditions to be had. I'm sure it will burn very quickly away here.

Perhaps I was exaggerating somewhat with very cloudy.

km79

Cloudy and feeling cool at 17 degrees
So just like much of last summer except it’s dry

pauldry

its not going to get over 19c in Sligo today

our run ends at 17 days

currently 16c n cloudy n cold.

no breaks in cloud until 4 or 5pm id say n by then too late to break 19

actually miraculously sun is out

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1005396615027453952

https://twitter.com/bluemoonie65/status/1005397528358129665