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Summer 2018 - General Discussion
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Hello, I've had a very bad previous few days but behind the scenes, I've been up to some stats for the warm spell that we've just had.
First, here's the final absolute maximum temperatures map for all Irish synoptic stations during the period May 23 to June 10 2018.
Here's a table of the daily sunshine totals (hours) from May 22 to June 12 2018 at 6 Irish stations which record sunshine.
Dublin Airport had 191.3 hours of sun during this period with an average of 8.7 hours of sun per day! The period was 22 days long and 191.3 hours of sun is a bit more than what a whole May average sunshine is at the station. The last sunny period that I can find comparable to this is July 2013 which had 197.2 hours of sun at the station from the 4th-25th July whilst 1st-11th (though only 11 days long) May 2017 had 145.5 hours of sunshine at Belmullet, around 3/4 of its whole monthly May average sunshine.
Notable events:
- 26.3c at Shannon Airport on May 29th is the highest May temperature in Ireland since 2012. The same station recorded a maximum of 26.1c on June 7th. The minimum at Shannon Airport on June 6th was 15.3c.
- Over 25mm of rainfall fell at Mt. Dillon within an hour on June 8th under a thunderstorm with a 9 degree drop in temperature from 25 to 16c. To put this into perspective, the highest hourly rainfall in Ireland was 52.2mm at Clonroche, Co. Wexford on 27th June 1986 which was also a thunderstorm.
- Constant lightning during the night of the 26th/27th May with thundery showers resulting in 18.6mm at Cork Airport on the 27th. Up to 9mm fell at the station in the hour 02:00 to 03:00.
All data comes from Met Éireann.
As in the outlook for the second half of June, there continues to be uncertainty and wobbles from the model runs. They have been constantly showing the Azores High ridging up to us but in the shorter FI (next week), the air is coming off of the Atlantic on the runs. At this time of year (in contrast to Winter), when you get air from this direction, it tends to bring in a lot of cloud and damp weather - not wet though. Summer 1981 was infamous for such a pattern as it was a dry, cool and very dull season. I wouldn't take this solution as concrete though because of the unreliability of the models at the moment. There have been some runs showing a northeast extension of the Azores High than it being a transient ridge but there have been more runs showing the transient ridge than the former which means the jet stream is very close by to our shores to the north. The NAO is set to go very positive for a bit according to the GFS ensembles showing that the Azores High is going to strengthen and it won't take much of an adjustment then for this to go in favour for some more warmth.
The UK Met Office 30 day outlook is not terribly optimistic of a warm to hot spell weather for the rest of June. They say that it is most likely to stay changeable.UK Outlook for Monday 18 Jun 2018 to Wednesday 27 Jun 2018:
Cloudier skies and perhaps some light rain are expected in the north and west on Monday, whilst many other areas will be fine and dry. It will be windy in the northwest and temperatures will be near normal here, but further south and eastwards it will become warm, or very warm for some. The changeable conditions will continue, with most places seeing sunny spells interspersed with cloudier skies and scattered showers. There will possibly be some longer spells of rain in the northwest too, where it will be windy at times. Through the period temperatures will average out near normal, however, there is then a chance that drier and warmer conditions could develop towards the end of June, particularly in the south.
Some longer range models though remain optimistic for a warm and dry July - whilst others are going completely down hill just revealing the uncertainty here. I think there is a lot to play for. It's a case of will the Azores High be strong enough or will we be stuck in this rut now that the pattern has become familiar again?Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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