Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Gonzo

yep, completely cloudy here too.

red sean

Cloud breaking up now in nth Sligo. Getting warm with a slight breeze.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

yep, completely cloudy here too.

I can see clear blue sky edging closer from the south west, looking like a good afternoon in store.

SleetAndSnow

Blue sky in cork and 23 degrees.

m17

Tuam Co Galway 25/06/18 temp 26.6℃ hours of sunshine 10.5

Rock Lesnar

Sun and clear blue sky is finally here!!!

m17

Coldwood Co Galway 01/03/18 -5℃

26/06/18 27.5℃

Ultimate Seduction

No word from Clommel since this hot weather came, possibly melted on to the sun lounger. Hope your enjoying it mate.

Calibos

Imagine if we had proper seasons like this every year. If Global Warming means the weather we've had in 2018 will happen more often here in Ireland then bring it on!

Joking of course. I don't want 200 million Bangladeshi's to be homeless when their country gets submerged by rising sea levels.

Still, wouldn't it be amazing to get a foot of snow every Winter and temperatures in the high 20's with blue skies every Summer

Gonzo

Calibos wrote: »

Imagine if we had proper seasons like this every year. If Global Warming means the weather we've had in 2018 will happen more often here in Ireland then bring it on!

Joking of course. I don't want 200 million Bangladeshi's to be homeless when their country gets submerged by rising sea levels.

Still, wouldn't it be amazing to get a foot of snow every Winter and temperatures in the high 20's with blue skies every Summer

I think the only way we can achieve that is to shut off the Atlantic for 6 months every year, 3 months of winter and 3 months of summer!

2018 is really starting to show that Ireland can be a very difference place when the Atlantic goes to sleep during our winter and summer!.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1011621222914945024

m17

Temps in Ireland 27/06/18

Comhrá

Kermit.de.frog

I can't understand a word they are saying.

m17

Tuam Co Galway 28/06/18 temp 30.7℃ hours of sunshine 14.7

sryanbruen

Warning: Long post alert plus bad news for those wanting some unsettled weather.

With all the headlines and rumours now talking of drought, you'd start to wonder how is July 2018 going to turn out? What do the long range outlooks say?

The UK Met Office have stated in their Contingency Planners for July-September that above average temperatures and below average precipitation are far more likely for the period in question. This can be shown by its GloSea5 model too which shows high pressure being dominant across much of northern Europe with lower heights to the south of Europe.







NOAA's CFSv2 model has been confident of an anticyclonic July for quite a while now since the beginning of May with a large area of high pressure bang over top of the British Isles. It still shows this solution to the present day. The exact distribution of the pressure is strikingly similar to that of July 1955 (see 500mb height anomaly reanalysis from NOAA below) which to this day remains Ireland and Wales' sunniest month on record.





The SST anomaly for 28 June 2018 is similar in ways to that of NOAA's reanalysis for July 1976. The end of June 1976 brought a very similar heatwave to Ireland (though on a much larger scale then to the UK) which continued on into July. May 2018 and May 1976's SST anomaly charts were very similar to each other and at the moment, it looks like this continues even into July of both years with their similarities.





When I made my Summer 2018 forecast, my analogue for July 2018 pointed at a very anticyclonic month with high pressure right over the UK. Therefore, with this and all the above outlooks or guidance from models and SSTs, there is no reason to not assume that it will be an anticyclonic July with further very dry and possibly hot weather.

The shorter range models, with especially the GFS in particular, have been struggling with the beginning of July recently. The GFS has been infamous in bringing the westerlies back as it usually does (like more than 95% of the time). The model very rarely shows persistent patterns without a change at some point in its runs though you can't totally blame it because our climate is changeable after all a lot of the time. It continues to struggle but there are a couple runs which show a very intense area of high pressure to build back over the British Isles again after some hit and miss showers for the first few days of the month.

July 2018 is looking like another classic of a Summer month with perhaps the first 18.0c+ Central England Temperature (CET) month since July 2013 and the second such month of the 2010s decade. #Summer #2018 #continues

hatrickpatrick

sryanbruen wrote: »

Warning: Long post alert

Yay!

plus bad news

*HAS HEART ATTACK*

...for those wanting some unsettled weather.

*breathes*

You sneaky but magnificent bastard

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

NOAA's CFSv2 model has been confident of an anticyclonic July for quite a while now since the beginning of May with a large area of high pressure bang over top of the British Isles. It still shows this solution to the present day. The exact distribution of the pressure is strikingly similar to that of July 1955 (see 500mb height anomaly reanalysis from NOAA below) which to this day remains Ireland and Wales' sunniest month on record.
]

When I made my Summer 2018 forecast, my analogue for July 2018 pointed at a very anticyclonic month with high pressure right over the UK. Therefore, with this and all the above outlooks or guidance from models and SSTs, there is no reason to not assume that it will be an anticyclonic July with further very dry and possibly hot weather.

The shorter range models, with especially the GFS in particular, have been struggling with the beginning of July recently. The GFS has been infamous in bringing the westerlies back as it usually does (like more than 95% of the time). The model very rarely shows persistent patterns without a change at some point in its runs though you can't totally blame it because our climate is changeable after all a lot of the time. It continues to struggle but there are a couple runs which show a very intense area of high pressure to build back over the British Isles again after some hit and miss showers for the first few days of the month.

July 2018 is looking like another classic of a Summer month with perhaps the first 18.0c+ Central England Temperature (CET) month since July 2013 and the second such month of the 2010s decade. #Summer #2018 #continues

Do you think this has anything at all to do with what transpired last February? Also if these models are correct, then surely the maximum temperature record will be broken in July.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

Do you think this has anything at all to do with what transpired last February? Also if these models are correct, then surely the maximum temperature record will be broken in July.

I'll try answer tomorrow nacho libre.

Meanwhile to make 2018 stand out even more (note 1976 being one of the years on the chart).....

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1012689306178281472

sryanbruen

Just for fun for now but CFS 500mb height anomaly charts show high pressure being the dominant influence for every month from July to November (including August) with lots of easterlies. Easterlies by October of course would start to be getting pretty cool usually. It even gives hints of Northern Blocking for November. Not to be taken seriously at all though for now.

If the October chart were to verify, it would be the fourth anticyclonic October in a row which would be absolutely crazy.

m17

Tuam Co Galway 29/06/18 30.9℃ hours of sunshine 13.8 it's now 9 days without rain

acequion

Clouded over now in Tralee,which is actually a relief after so many sweltering sunny days. It's been glorious.:pac:

m17

Clifden Co Galway 30/06/18 temp 29.4℃ hours of sunshine 11.7

giveitholly

Fantastic pictures m17

Graces7

acequion wrote: »

Clouded over now in Tralee,which is actually a relief after so many sweltering sunny days. It's been glorious.:pac:

Yes . a refreshing normality. Restful dimness after too much glare for so long. I have actually slept a lot today.

m17

Corofin Co Galway 01/03/18

01/07/18

Kermit.de.frog

Still looks very green there.

sryanbruen

The latest CFSv2 for July 2018 has gone mental. Precipitation anomalies at the bottom end of the scale for dry conditions and an area of above average heights trapped over top of us.

Don't know if two exceptionally dry Summer months (in Dublin's case of under 10mm of rain) would be unprecedented but my god it has to be remarkable at least.

dball

last week on Monday 6.00 news and weather the presenter said that it would be ideal over the next 2 days to take some dramatic photographs of the sun sets and sunrises due to that particular weather pattern. She nailed it - Last Tuesday sunset was incredible.
Wednesday was very good too .

Is there something one should look out for in the pressures or something else that can add clarity (for photographs) to the weather events unfolding here in Ireland this last few weeks.

sryanbruen

I don't know where to post this but..... in this post, I will be sharing my first analogue for the Autumn 2018 season (since we're well and truly into the Summer by now and the long range bandwagon has to start looking at Autumn 2018's possibilities). This analogue is going to be on Autumns which followed on from warm Junes.

My Autumn 2018 forecast will be released on Tuesday, August 28th.

The analogue of warm Junes going by the 500mb height anomaly reanalysis below suggest that Autumn would be quite cold and rather unsettled one. There is a trough that is over much of western Europe with the centre just lying over the Bay of Biscay. There is also a lot of northern blocking over the Arctic and the way the trough is aligned could suggest northerly to northeasterly winds bringing cold air into that trough from the Arctic. At the same time, we're on the cold side of the jet stream.

I think what we can take from all these Autumns is that the vast majority of them are very unsettled and some have record breaking wet Autumn months though thankfully, Autumn 2000 is not in here (keep in mind, June 2000 was relatively warm too but not as warm as any of these Junes in the years named in the analogue). November in particular seems to be favoured as being an unsettled month with little settled Novembers in here though of course there are exceptions like 2004.

This is only the beginning of the Autumn analogues so plenty more to come.