Summer 2018 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

Yeah, I'd have no idea how to answer that. If you haven't noticed, I haven't given much outlook posts in the past few days - as an emphasis of the uncertainty.

I think it's time for the next Autumn 2018 analogue though . This one is on very dry Junes and the Autumns that followed these dry Junes. The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis looks very unsettled for Autumn but with Greenland blocking. The way the trough is aligned looks to me like that by November, we'd be thinking of a very snowy and cold scenario. I gave the November 2010 reanalysis to compare. Look quite similar!





This quick table of CETs for each of the Autumns in the analogue prove what I said with a wet but cool Autumn signal with very cold conditions possible by November. The difference row is the anomaly of the mean of these Autumns from their 1981-2010 averages, for example, November's mean in this analogue is 5.9c which comes to -1.2c below the 1981-2010 average. Just look at all those cold Novembers in there including the coldest on record ever for the CET - 1915 with a CET of 2.8c.

So far, the Autumn 2018 analogues have been unsettled with differences on temperature. The models are suggesting a warm and dry Autumn which I'm quite dubious about at this stage. Anyway, I'm just speaking pointless for now because well, next week keeps on changing, never mind two-four months away!



Data comes from the UK Met Office.

SleetAndSnow

Those 500DAM lines I think they are called, I remember you saying 524DAM line is coming up so it’s bringing the warm and shocked at how north it was one one run (I think it was 524?), is it the higher the DAM line the warmer/settled the weather and lower damn lines are more unsettled?

Thanks! Just want to learn some more weather stuff

sryanbruen

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Those 500DAM lines I think they are called, I remember you saying 524DAM line is coming up so it’s bringing the warm and shocked at how north it was one one run (I think it was 524?), is it the higher the DAM line the warmer/settled the weather and lower damn lines are more unsettled?

Thanks! Just want to learn some more weather stuff

It was the 564 Dam line :P, not 524.

Dam lines or "thickness" show you how warm or cold a layer of the atmosphere is via a figure calculated by the formula: 500mb height - 1000mb height. You needn't worry about that though as the main dam lines you look out for are:

528 dam line - The atmosphere is unstable but in a cold air mass so snowfall is likely. Even higher chances of snow if the dam line is 522 or lower. This is what we would have been seeing during the Beast from the East.

546 dam line - The westerlies are dominant in Winter with mild and wet conditions. This also continues into Summer with the dam line likely to sit to the north and west.

564 dam line - Heatwave conditions. Either a big anticyclone (like an Omega block) bringing some very warm air with it or a Spanish plume is likely to have a dam line such as this.

SleetAndSnow

Brilliant! thanks sryan!

appledrop

Woke up this morning to see rain had fallen! This is the first rain we have had here in about 6 weeks. At last!

Cork Boy 53

appledrop wrote: »

Woke up this morning to see rain had fallen! This is the first rain we have had here in about 6 weeks. At last!

Yes there has been light but steady rainfall throughout the night and early this morning. The ground has got a badly wanted wetting but a lot more is needed.

appledrop

Yea it is very light + drizzly but we will take it. Garden full of blackbirds all morning finally able to find some worms.

Ultimate Seduction

I'm sick of this muck already. Any heatwaves on the horizon?

Ultimate Seduction

So the heatwave thread is closed and the event officially over. I'll remember this summer for the rest of my life. It's kind of depressing to think I may never witness something like this again.

I really do wonder what happened Clonmel, regular poster for years suddenly disappeared just as the weather he has been crying out for arrives.

km79

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

So the heatwave thread is closed and the event officially over. I'll remember this summer for the rest of my life. It's kind of depressing to think I may never witness something like this again.

I really do wonder what happened Clonmel, regular poster for years suddenly disappeared just as the weather he has been crying out for arrives.

And me the other who was abroad for the whole feckin lot of it
He is probably still out sunbathing LOL

ZX7R

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

So the heatwave thread is closed and the event officially over. I'll remember this summer for the rest of my life. It's kind of depressing to think I may never witness something like this again.

I really do wonder what happened Clonmel, regular poster for years suddenly disappeared just as the weather he has been crying out for arrives.

Hopefully enjoying it

km79

Pouring rain again

harr

Raining in kildare since mid morning...going from misty to quiet heavy at times, 1.5mm measuring in my little cheap weather station..
Kids complaining already they can’t get outside. I threw on the light rain coat and shorts and went for a walk and was a sweaty mess when I got home.
Temps still around 19c and humidity high..
This band of rain moving very slow...

EdgeCase

I'd actually love a good, proper, heavy downpour at this stage to just clear the humidity and the air entirely.
This relatively light rain has just increased the muggy feeling.

It was nice for a few weeks but I was finding the pollen and dust really irritating. For some reason, I had far worse hay fever than I have ever experienced on the continent. Any reason for that? For example, do Irish plants go extra crazy during dry weather as they're evolved to make the most of it?

pad199207

harr wrote: »

Raining in kildare since mid morning...going from misty to quiet heavy at times, 1.5mm measuring in my little cheap weather station..
Kids complaining already they can’t get outside. I threw on the light rain coat and shorts and went for a walk and was a sweaty mess when I got home.
Temps still around 19c and humidity high..
This band of rain moving very slow...

Drops of rain on and off all day really. Nothing recorded this end of Kildare

km79

Still drizzling neither occasional light rain
Disgusting day and a reminder of what most of last summer was like

Rock Lesnar

Rotten day here, cloudy and wet for most of it, just reminded me of why i hate days like this and prefer the dry weather so much .

Franz Von Peppercorn

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

So the heatwave thread is closed and the event officially over. I'll remember this summer for the rest of my life. It's kind of depressing to think I may never witness something like this again.

I really do wonder what happened Clonmel, regular poster for years suddenly disappeared just as the weather he has been crying out for arrives.

he probably went on holiday to Iceland.

Cork Boy 53

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Rotten day here, cloudy and wet for most of it, just reminded me of why i hate days like this and prefer the dry weather so much .

We really need a few weeks of rain to ease the drought situation particularly in the east and the south of the country.

pad199207

0.2mm now on the AWS

Gonzo

horrible day here too, sick of the rain already and on the search for another period of warm, dry and sunny weather.

km79

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

We really need a few weeks of rain to ease the drought situation particularly in the east and the south of the country.

A few weeks ????? So the rest of the summer
No thanks
A few days here and there to ease it and it will come in autumn and winter
Make no mistake it will come

I’m not going to wish the summer away mid July anyway
Each to their own

Cork Boy 53

km79 wrote: »

A few weeks ????? So the rest of the summer
No thanks
A few days here and there to ease it and it will come in autumn and winter
Make no mistake it will come

I’m not going to wish the summer away mid July anyway
Each to their own

A few days here and there will be of little use. Sustained rainfall is what is needed.

km79

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

A few days here and there will be of little use. Sustained rainfall is what is needed.

Ok
I’m not having this argument again
It’s summer. I want summer weather. We actually have had seasons this year so far which is nice for a change imo

Farmer2017

km79 wrote: »

Ok
I’m not having this argument again
It’s summer. I want summer weather. We actually have had seasons this year so far which is nice for a change imo

Yes summer weather is nice and needed. But rain is needed also for the crops. It goin b a very scary winter if rain doesn’t come soon. Livelihoods will b lost cause of this drought. Consumers will b paying big money for veg and potatoes this winter if the crop is lost in fields. So in all rain is needed badly and if this weather keeps up another 2 weeks farmers livelihoods are lost. Unnecessary bills are mounting up as is and animals will die because there winter supplies are been eaten as no growth in fields to feed them now r grow fodder for the winter. We need a mild kind winter this year for any hope of wildlife surviving as no food growing on dead trees for them

Graces7

km79 wrote: »

Ok
I’m not having this argument again
It’s summer. I want summer weather. We actually have had seasons this year so far which is nice for a change imo

In Ireland this IS summer weather..sunshine AND showers.

Oscar Bravo

The exact moment the front passed over and the sun came out(Castlebar)

Dickie10

need plenty of rain , we have enough heat, 16-20 is plenty for growth need lots of rain now

km79

Graces7 wrote: »

In Ireland this IS summer weather..sunshine AND showers.

In your opinion.
In my opinion the last couple of weeks were summer weather.

I understand completely that people for different reasons need rain. That does not mean it is seasonable to expect weeks of rain in July.

The weather will do what it wants anyway but I'm hoping for more nice weather interspersed with some rain to help those suffering hardship on farms etc.

acequion

I was so happy to have the distraction of the world cup final today to distract me from the weather. But it was really miserable. Amazing how different Ireland feels when we get normal summer weather. And I'm with km79 that "normal" is what we've had for the past few weeks and what we used to have in the very distant past.