Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Mobhi1

Clear and sunny here and 22.0C a little while ago. It's now 21.6C but it feels cool in that easterly, especially in the shade.

km79

Clouded over and cooled down a lot
Felt a few drops a minute ago but the lawn is cut so it can do what it wants now !

Gaoth Laidir

Casement and Oak PARK both hit 23.1 today. A very pleasant day.

ZX7R

km79 wrote: »

Clouded over and cooled down a lot
Felt a few drops a minute ago but the lawn is cut so it can do what it wants now !

You have grass that needed to be cut 😀

km79

ZX7R wrote: »

You have grass that needed to be cut 😀

Yeah there was actually a fair bit of growth in it since the weekend !
Edges still burnt though

Meteorite58

Got up to 19.7C here near Tralee today. Grand Summer's day spent around North Kerry.

Ballybunion early afternoon today.

Cheerful Spring

I being to wonder do the weather people know what they are talking about as they predicted showers and rain for my area and not a drop of rain occurred it turned to blue skies about 2 o clock and Sun shined till 8pm

Manitoban

Calibos wrote: »

Hope the 50% chance of renewed heatwave comes to pass for the weekend of the 28/29th or at the very least the rain is delayed till Sunday Night.

Bray Airshow on that weekend.

Going camping in Wicklow that weekend and to watch the airshow, just delay the rain until the end of the airshow please!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

I’m currently out so only briefly answering this now. No they’re not, they’re changing like they have done every run for the past few weeks. If you see anybody confident on anything weather wise beyond like Monday or Tuesday then I’d ignore them if I were you. Anything is likely, uncertainty is high.

Ok, I can finally answer this now. In regards to the models, I would like to direct you to the FI thread. I have posted GIFs of the most recent runs of the GFS and ECM models for 26th July (a randomly chosen day) to show the uncertainty and inconsistency in the models. It's no different than last week really with this week we've gone through with the uncertainty.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057880548&page=19

The NAO is staying positive meaning the Azores High will still be strong and ridgey. The sea surface temperatures continue to be below average (very-so) near Greenland which discourages blocking to occur there. Meanwhile, the warm SSTs around us and Scandinavia promote blocking to occur there. With no blocking over Greenland, the NAO staying positive, the same SST profile as of early Summer 2018 continuing etc, what is there to force the jet stream southwards? The Atlantic has gone fairly quiet for now in regards to tropical cyclone development but it can ramp up at any time it pleases to - once the expected El Nino does not occur 'cause if you didn't know, Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to be weak during El Ninos whilst conversely, the Pacific hurricane season tends to be active to very active. In theory, we should be seeing more of the same of this Summer weather but the models disagree..... *in FI for the past few weeks*. If August were to continue more of the same, I'd think it would be easily a record breaking dry Summer even beating 1995. As I've been saying though, I personally feel August will be a more unsettled month and it will be a knife edge of record breaking or not in terms of dry conditions overall for the Summer.

The best cure for the uncertainty is time to pass by than really discussing it here.

mg1982

I hear temps are hitting the low thirties in parts of Arctic circle, supposedly Finland has never experienced a heatwave like it. The weird weather continues.

sryanbruen

Thought this would be fun to do. I used DataMarket's stats for this analogue. It is on notably hot Summers or Summers with notable hot months in Finland. This particular reanalysis is for August and again, it suggests more of the same for August 2018 with hot easterlies. I'm quite surprised especially with the individual Augusts that are in there. Would have thought the high would be much further east than this shows.

Say my name

Heavy rain in the northwest.

Andy From Sligo

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Apparently it has to rain on St.Swithin's bridge.
It didn't.

oh brilliant!

Graces7

the met.ie map looks to have rain across the dry parts... Grand.

West Mayo well drenched... offshore island

harr

Couldn’t sleep this morning so got up around 6 decided to bring dogs for a long walk. Weather was nice a little overcast and sun braking through and around 15c ..
Shorts, t shirt and light hoodie. Just my luck the heavens opened about 10 minutes into the walk and the heaviest rain here since heatwave broke.
Got soaked to the skin and it’s still lashing out.
Laois/ kildare border

SleetAndSnow

Still dry down here in cork

shakeitoff

TBF, it just ended up being a regular summer after July. 2 days of rain now in 2 weeks which is fairly standard, yesterday was real nice but most days just warm nd overcast.

sryanbruen

shakeitoff wrote: »

TBF, it just ended up being a regular summer after July. 2 days of rain now in 2 weeks which is fairly standard, yesterday was real nice but most days just warm nd overcast.

I remember many more "very sunny days" this July than any other July since 2014.

MJohnston

An interesting article on why heatwaves in areas with cooler climates are dangerous:
https://www.vox.com/2018/7/18/17561266/summer-2018-heat-wave-weather-health

People with cardiovascular problems like high blood pressure also suffer in the heat since they often take medications that can dehydrate them. High temperatures can also accelerate the formation of pollutants like ozone, which can inflame the lungs. At night, if temperatures don’t decline, people can’t cool off enough to cope. And as the climate changes, nights are warming faster than days.

As I’ve written about before, scientists have figured out that when it comes to health risks from high temperatures, the key factor to pay attention to is the deviation from the norm. A 105°F day in Phoenix may barely register for Arizona residents, but 90°F weather in Portland, Oregon, could send people to the hospital.

This is why I think Met Eireann's choice to redefine a heatwave as a few days at a fixed figure of 25C is really flawed. Ultimately the primary reason authorities should official label weather events is for matters of public safety. So if our safety is determined more by the heat relative to the norm, that is how a heatwave should be defined not as an absolute number.

Harry Palmr

In danger of failing to breach the 20c mark today

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember many more "very sunny days" this July than any other July since 2014.

Speaking of which, we're only up to the 19th July and Cork Airport has recorded 150.2 hours of sunshine in July 2018 which is more than it's had for the entirety of July 2016 and 2015 whilst just under 5 hours from the entirety of July 2014. Around 32 more hours 'til it beats July 2017's total of 181.1 hours. Not to mention, Cork Airport's average July monthly sunshine is around 166-168 hours.

In terms of other stations, Dublin Airport has had 141.4 hours up to the 19th July which is relatively sunnier than average for the period but it doesn't stand out. The northwest has had a poor July in terms of sunshine going by my estimates (under 100 hours) as it usually does, a sunny July is a very rare occasion there due to how the zonal pattern works.

I don't expect these to rise dramatically regardless if it turns very wet or staying settled.

Data comes from Met Éireann.

Gonzo

Not a nice day here, after 2 really nice days. Grey, damp, it rained on and off for most of the night. No sign of any sun here yet.

Another warm weekend to come, but sunshine does look very limited which will limit how warm we get. It does look like Ireland in particular is becoming slowly but surely more influenced by Atlantic conditions over the past week and into next week too.

The UK mainland (mainly England and Wales) look like they are about to enter a potentially significant heatwave over the next week, with Ireland on the wrong side in more average summer conditions. The south-east of England hasn't really had a break from the last heatwave either. Temperatures there could be in the low to mid 30's for the majority of next week.

Gaoth Laidir

The sun came out at Casement in the past hour and the dewpoint shot up to a balmy 19.7 °C at 3 pm, from 15.4 at 2 pm. Dry-bulb is also 19.7, so 100% RH.

shakeitoff

It was nice knowing you summer. Typical Irish summer day here, pouring ran south Dublin. No doubt it will get up nice in the evening as per usual. The whole vibe is just so different with the sun, didn't feel like real life.

JCX BXC

We are quite a pessimistic bunch for the whole part aren't we?

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

We are quite a pessimistic bunch for the whole part aren't we?

Ha, it's amazing, we've had essentially 2 straight months of dry warm weather with an interlude of truly extreme heat. And still people are all "typical Irish summers"!

shakeitoff

It's mid July.....

MJohnston

shakeitoff wrote: »

It's mid July.....

So? It doesn't change the fact that we've had one of the hottest and driest summers in recent history up until now, and that will continue this weekend and possible beyond. A couple of wet days doesn't ruin the whole thing!

sryanbruen

We're doing a hella lot better than the awful Summer of 1994 regardless of these July similarities in the tweet below though if the England/Ireland divide does verify, it will be very Summer 1994-esque. If the 1994 similarities were to continue into Winter, the talks would be going from drought to floods. 1994-95 was the wettest Winter on record for many before 2013-14.

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1020331780279291904

Donegal Storm

MJohnston wrote: »

Ha, it's amazing, we've had essentially 2 straight months of dry warm weather with an interlude of truly extreme heat. And still people are all "typical Irish summers"!

People giving out that farmers are always complaining yet we get a few hours of rain for the first time in weeks and the thread is full of depression and complaining!

Today has been fine in Kildare, rain stopped early this morning with only a short shower or two since. Feeling warm with the high humidity and the sun even made a brief appearance.