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Summer 2018 - General Discussion
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North and West will have drizzle from Monday but OakPark will over 20c so might go there on holidays
Most Augusts tend to deteriorate
What good Augusts has the West had in the 21st Century
You fared much better than the east in August 2004. For instance, Belmullet had 59% of its average August rainfall with 55.4mm whilst Casement Aerodrome had 165% of its average August rainfall with 113.9mm. You had maxima normally in the low 20s with a max of nearly 27c on the 2nd.
It was an unusual August.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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Doesnt this happen most years though once the continent heats up it attracts unsettled weather to the western fringes. European monsoon season i think is the term.
Was a fairly grim day here in the north west cold wet and windy.
How's it looking for the next few days? we're in gweedore for a week. Syrans "drizzle" was more like a downpour
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Margot Creamy Registration wrote: »How's it looking for the next few days? we're in gweedore for a week. Syrans "drizzle" was more like a downpour
You didnt go to gweedore for the weather i hope. Expect more of the same the next few days id say. 0 -
Squeaksoutloud wrote: »Is this the whole St. Swithins theory...westerlys back for around 6 weeks to end of August? Also called European monsoon? Pat Kenny on about it the other day!
The UK Met Office have a good, simple definition on it here:
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2012/06/08/what-is-the-european-monsoon/Margot Creamy Registration wrote: »How's it looking for the next few days? we're in gweedore for a week. Syrans "drizzle" was more like a downpour
Hopefully I'll be able to say snizzle or snowpour instead in 3 months time :P
At least some places like Dublin stations, Arklow and Oak Park reached 20c today.
https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1024323809590083584Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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I'm the exact opposite. The inside temperature is 22c it takes days for the house to cool down. The weekend is going to top up the temperature again.
Same here. 22c in the house. Problem with the boiler since a power cut during storm Hector on 14th June so no heating since then (must get it looked at soon!). The coldest the house has been is comfortably warm, which is what it's like now. During the height of the heatwave, downstairs temperatures got into the high 20's, upstairs got into the low 30's a few times. Slept like a log when it was that warm, just like when away in the Med
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Margot Creamy Registration wrote: »Foolishly thought the weather would hold for August
August has always been the joker in the pack for this Summer.
I know I've said numerous times but I'll say it again, my analogues pointed towards an unsettled August with me basing similarities on the coming August being similar to 1989 or 1996 which were both fairly close to average temperature but unsettled months, especially 1996 which had several quite wet days.
This is for the UK but the UK Met Office state in their contingency planners that the chances of above average temperature and below average precipitation for August to October 2018 is higher than average. I'd like to highlight the following quotes from it though:For both August and August-September-October, there is good agreement between the Met Office long-range prediction system and systems from other prediction centres. These show an increased likelihood of higher-than-usual pressure close to the UK, suggesting a reduction in the chances of Atlantic depressions moving across the UK. Consistent with this, the likelihood of below-average precipitation is moderately greater than the likelihood of above-average precipitation This implies an increased chance that the impacts from the very dry weather being felt in some parts of the UK could be extended.
Notice how they said "some parts of the UK" which for my guess is the southeast of England.
They also said "The chances of impacts from high temperatures are increased compared to normal". Augusts 1989 and 1996 (the Augusts I used as a comparison for how I feel this August is gonna fare) did not have plumes or heatwaves in the UK as well as Ireland.
The anomaly forecasts are for the three month period overall but it's still interesting how bullish they seem on the pattern continuing to be dry and warm.
We'll be able to see what the new Glosea5 model update from the UKMO says soon for August-October and September-November. The previous update at the beginning of July showed a continuation of the pattern but we know this is not looking likely at the moment given how the pattern has fared with high pressure building further eastwards than over top of us which June had. This eastward progression has led to hotter conditions for the south and east of the UK but cooler in the north and west. As a result, the heat has tended to be more localised than widespread which is what you'd expect really this time around into the Summer season.
Latest CFSv2 updated to the 29th July shows August to be similar to July (from the second week onwards) with potential plumes for the UK and some ridges of high pressure being sent to Ireland at times. Heights look a bit too high for a particularly wet month on this model. This and the Glosea5 are on odds with the shorter range models of the GFS and ECM. The short range models have been wanting to retrogress the high out into the Atlantic which would bring us down a northerly. Looking at NAO forecasts from the GFS ensembles, this seems a likely possibility but there is a split in the ensembles at either keeping the NAO at a neutral level or going to negative conditions. If the NAO were to go negative, it'd be the first time it did so since 6 June which is a very long time and shows you just how persistent low pressure has been over Greenland and Iceland this Summer.
I stand by my thoughts on August being a more unsettled month like I initially said.Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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