Summer 2018 - General Discussion

fryup

yet another day i wake up to a thick blanket of cloud

east clare

Harry Palmr

Waterford wet, nothing dreadful but certainly more than the forecast suggested.

sryanbruen

In this post, we're going to be looking at the Autumns that followed on from Junes with a QBO of -20 or less.

These Autumns overall look mixed with below average heights over the Norwegian Sea with above average heights over Russia and in the Atlantic backing into North America and parts of Ireland. This chart signals fairly settled (away from the northeast of the UK) but maybe quite cool conditions. There lies some month to month variation though and some of these Autumns are very different from each other like there's literally no comparison with say 1994 and 2005.



The Septembers look similar to the above reanalysis for Autumn overall but more influence from the jet stream and below average heights to the east of the UK. This reanalysis is kinda similar to September 1995 which was very wet and cool to the east of the UK whilst the west was more settled with close to average temperatures. The difference with this reanalysis being that the jet stream is in a northwest to southeast trajectory instead of a north to south trajectory which September 1995 had. Nevertheless, both look similar to each other and I'd expect similar conditions though not as wet in the east as September 1995 was.



The Octobers look exceptionally mild with wetter than average conditions out west but very dry to the east where above average heights sit. Kind of the reverse of the September reanalysis above but also much milder.



The Novembers are very very surprising to me with deep below average heights over Scandinavia and above average heights in the Atlantic up to Greenland drawing down a northerly wind. Looks very cold and relatively unsettled. Looking at the individual Novembers, there are some cold ones in there like 2005, 2010 and 2012 but there is also exceptionally mild and wet ones like 1963 and 1994 - the latter being the warmest November on record.



Overall, quite a mixed bag this analogue is and like the backloaded Springs one, I'm not really happy with this analogue because it's very different to many we've looked at. I do not see the November solution coming off but September and October's ones are more likely if you ask me. Next Autumn 2018 analogue, which will be with you probably tomorrow, will be looking at Julys with a QBO of -20 or less. Also, preliminary analogues for Autumn 2018 before the forecast will be released Sunday.

Gonzo

awful morning here, wet, cool and moderate rain.

Rock Lesnar

Horrible Horrible Horrible day

Graces7

Having a snug, cosy morning as the rain is apocalyptic, on the wings of a wild wind. I am rather enjoying it actually; one of the advantages of being past my sell by date.

West Mayo, offshore island

km79

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Horrible Horrible Horrible day

Yep
Not much else to say really
Looks like I missed our summer when I went to Spain for the heatwave !

Mobhi1

It's a cold wet day. The first one I've experienced this summer. There are usually more of them. It's 13.6C now. There's been 1.0mm of rain recorded so far today.

Gonzo

This August is particularly hard to swallow after a mostly dry, warm and sunny May to 3rd week of July.

The more I think about it, August really is the start of Autumn in Ireland.

My father is in his early 70s, and he is complaining of the cold today, so he has put the heating on as today is completely miserable.

MJohnston

Gonzo wrote: »

This August is particularly hard to swallow after a mostly dry, warm and sunny May to 3rd week of July.

I prefer to be positive about it - we nearly always get a wet August, but unlike most years, we actually had a great summer (nearly 3 months of it as you said) beforehand.

Still reason to be optimistic too, we've had miserable Augusts followed by Indian Summer Septembers before.

Zapperzy

Hard to believe we had a flat sheet on the bed up until mid July, changed to a summer duvet and last night was the first night I was cold since, thinking it might be soon time for the winter duvet :-(

Absolutely miserable day in East Galway. I've had to turn the heating on today, I'd light the stove too if I wasn't working tonight. Just put the bins out and fed the birds, had to put on a coat and a wooly hat. Wind is howling on the back door. Real depressing weather :-(

Xenji

Miserable day in Castlebar, blustery and nearly 10mm of rain already, only 14.2C outside.

Gonzo

MJohnston wrote: »

I prefer to be positive about it - we nearly always get a wet August, but unlike most years, we actually had a great summer (nearly 3 months of it as you said) beforehand.

Still reason to be optimistic too, we've had miserable Augusts followed by Indian Summer Septembers before.

I totally agree that we had a great summer, 3 months of mostly sunshine and settled warm conditions. Just a pity that August nearly always ends up being poor for the majority of our summers. Infact I've more memories of warm and settled spells in September than I do with August.

pad199207

Weather advisory for high intensity rainfalls from Ernesto tomorrow

sryanbruen

In August, the European Monsoon is usually well under way as it is when the Polar Vortex starts to become stronger after a few months of hibernation. Also, August is often the hottest time of year in Europe and these warmer temperatures combined with the stronger Polar Vortex lead to an intensification in the zonal westerlies. On average, August is the wettest Summer month as a result whilst June is the driest and July tends to be in the middle. An August with a combination of warm, dry and sunny conditions all in one month has not happened for most places since 1995! 2010 was close but daytime temperatures were rather below average and there were cold nights towards the end. All Augusts since have lacked in at least one department, for instance 2016 - sunny, 2013 - sunny, 2012 - dry (and sunny for some) etc. An August like 1995, 1976 or 1947; which were all exceptionally sunny, dry and warm, occurs every 24 years on average showing you how special of an event such an August is.

Statistically and synoptically, this August so far has been distinctly average, average rainfall, average temperature (after a fairly warm start in the east). But as I described in the Summer forecast at the end of May, if August were to be more unsettled, it would feel awful in spite of being very average. Will have some stats when I can.

Cork Boy 53

pad199207 wrote: »

Weather advisory for high intensity rainfalls from Ernesto tomorrow

For the whole country or just certain areas?

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

For the whole country or just certain areas?

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland
High intensity rainfall over a relatively short period of time for many areas on Saturday night associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Totals up to 20mm could occur quite widely with higher falls locally. The situation will continue to be monitored.

Issued: Friday 17 August 2018 12:00

Valid from Saturday 18 August 2018 20:00 to Sunday 19 August 2018 08:00

MJohnston

There's an unmentioned thread for that too:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057902364

Elmer Blooker

Temperatures are generally 14/15c at the moment but at this time tomorrow temperatures should be TEN degrees higher and maybe even a little more!
27c at somewhere like Casement or Oak Park tomorrow is not out of the question if there is good sunshine.

sharper

MJohnston wrote: »

I prefer to be positive about it - we nearly always get a wet August, but unlike most years, we actually had a great summer (nearly 3 months of it as you said) beforehand.

Still reason to be optimistic too, we've had miserable Augusts followed by Indian Summer Septembers before.

There's probably a huge east/west coast divide here but as much as I find the rain inconvenient it's badly needed in the east if we want to avoid serious water supply problems.

Mobhi1

There hasn't been that much rain here. Only 1.2mm recorded so far. It's the low temperature with it that's making it unpleasant. It's at its highest now so far which is only 14.8C which is pretty low for August.

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Horrible Horrible Horrible day

Even worse now, driving rain in a strong breeze and feeling cold .

Gonzo

still moderate rain here and feeling very chilly. Current temperature 15C with a real feel of only 11C. Heating and lights on.

So far today is second coldest day of the summer where Saturday 28th July temperatures struggled to get past 11C for most of the day.

Saturday 28th eventually reached 16C in the evening, so if we don't reach 16C today, then today will be so far the coldest day of the summer.

Graces7

Rain stopped here so I took the dog and the blackberry bucket out but wind too strong for safety . Really fierce and the ocean so utterly dramatic

West mayo; offshore island

Oscar Bravo

Mild,windy with rain and drizzle here in Castlebar. horrible.

4pm,blustery,Casement gusting 32 knots.Mace head gusting 30 knots along with Knock Airport

Gonzo

rain almost stopped here now and feeling slightly milder.

Much warmer air is on the way for the next few days. Temperatures tonight may be no lower than what we've had today, should be back into the low 20's tomorrow.

Mobhi1

Rain has stopped here in Glasnevin. There was 1.4mm recorded since midnight. It's 16.0C now.

SleetAndSnow

Dry and overcast in cork. Very humid. It’s starting to get blustery too with some strong gusts of wind. Will be on the coast over the weekend (west cork coast) , anybody know how we are looking down there?

Gonzo

17C here now, temperatures on the rise already despite the damp and cloudy conditions.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Statistically and synoptically, this August so far has been distinctly average, average rainfall, average temperature (after a fairly warm start in the east). But as I described in the Summer forecast at the end of May, if August were to be more unsettled, it would feel awful in spite of being very average. Will have some stats when I can.

Had a quick gaze at the mean temperatures for August so far at the synoptic stations and it seems that the east and parts of the south have had a fairly warmer than average August so far especially in the Dublin area and Oak Park, Co. Carlow. This is likely skewed for the most part by the warm first week. Elsewhere, it has been either bang on average or close to average (within 0.5c from average) but on the cooler side.

In terms of rainfall, like I thought earlier today, it has been a very average August so far with precipitation; nothing really wet nor really dry. There have been far far wetter starts to August than 2018 (such as 2008 which had 176.3mm at Dublin Airport up to this point; the 16th) and there have been drier starts to August than 2018 (such as 2010 which had 3.2mm at Cork Airport up to this point; the 16th). You can see the graph of every August 1st-16th rainfall total from 2006 to 2018 for selected Irish stations. 2018 falls perfectly in the middle as an average but for the east, one of the driest. 2006, 2010 and 2016 stand out as the driest starts for the majority of selected stations in these years.



Data comes from Met Éireann.