Fighter jets for the Air Corps?

roadmaster

sparky42 wrote: »

It's going to be tricky for them to scope it I'd bet, there was an article out today that the Czech's are buying 2 more Cargo 295's but won't get them till 2020, so at best I'd say our MPA's are only going to be coming in 2021 at best if not 2022, at the same time the Eithne replacement is going to be happening around the same period, so what that's at least €250-300 million in Capital spend alone then. Short of a fairly significant budget increase there won't be the money for Jets.



I'd expect the tendering would only be started around 2020ish and the PC9's will go on after 2025, with perhaps external factors weighing on the selection.

A lot of replacements due so. The pc9 could be with us longer than we think. The amount of hours the 139 fleet is clocking up could also maybe speed up there replacements to

sparky42

roadmaster wrote: »

A lot of replacements due so. The pc9 could be with us longer than we think. The amount of hours the 139 fleet is clocking up could also maybe speed up there replacements to

I think they are still under their planned yearly numbers as tendered, but there's other potential issues, again if external issues comes into play might we need to go for deployable helicopters? Will as part of the Eithne program a procurement of some helicopters to operate off her be specified (or do we end up buying a "helicopter capable" ship with no helicopter that could use it?


So yeah I'd say the PC9's might go long (and could again I think the fleet hours are below what was tendered for) with everything else coming due, again short of budget changes.

jonnybigwallet

Shame ya cant buy them auld Strikemasters any more. Cheap and cheerful but better than what the lads have at the moment by a country mile. I guess the Scorpion is the 21st century equivalent but nobody else agrees with me here so Im floggin a dead horse. BTW I'm off down the mall tomorrow to see the 100 plane anniversity flypast of the Royal Air Force. First time I'll clock the new JSF. ATB

jonnybigwallet

Went along to the 100+ flypast t'other day down the Mall in London. Tip top stuff! 3 of the new JSF planes flown in the display. Also saw one of them Osprey tilt rotor jobbies yesterday. Part of President Trumps set up for his UK visit. All good stuff. I'm debating with meself whether to go to the upcoming event at Fairford or maybe head down to Farnborough imminently. Not much happening on the home front apparently. Board has gome very quiet of late. Bring on the jets I say!

knucklehead6

jonnybigwallet wrote: »

Went along to the 100+ flypast t'other day down the Mall in London. Tip top stuff! 3 of the new JSF planes flown in the display. Also saw one of them Osprey tilt rotor jobbies yesterday. Part of President Trumps set up for his UK visit. All good stuff. I'm debating with meself whether to go to the upcoming event at Fairford or maybe head down to Farnborough imminently. Not much happening on the home front apparently. Board has gome very quiet of late. Bring on the jets I say!

Hmmmm....

methinks you've made an INVESTMENT in a STEYR

Kermit.de.frog

I think the EU will give us the kick up the ass here.

There will come a time very soon when, pretend neutral or not, the EU is hardly going to tolerate the notion of others (UK) patrolling a part of it's airspace.

They will turn around to countries like Ireland and demand an increase in spending to pull their weight. That will ultimately mean jets, it has to.

So i'm confident long term we will have jets.

sparky42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think the EU will give us the kick up the ass here.

There will come a time very soon when, pretend neutral or not, the EU is hardly going to tolerate the notion of others (UK) patrolling a part of it's airspace.

They will turn around to countries like Ireland and demand an increase in spending to pull their weight. That will ultimately mean jets, it has to.

So i'm confident long term we will have jets.

Or we end up signing up for some sort of "air policing" agreement like the Baltic's have.

tac foley

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think the EU will give us the kick up the ass here.

There will come a time very soon when, pretend neutral or not, the EU is hardly going to tolerate the notion of others (UK) patrolling a part of it's airspace.

They will turn around to countries like Ireland and demand an increase in spending to pull their weight. That will ultimately mean jets, it has to.

So i'm confident long term we will have jets.

You think?


Get real.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5972845/Irish-PM-mocked-saying-ban-British-planes-airspace.html


The who-flies-where deals are part of international treaties, and you can try and break them at your peril. Ireland has MUCH more to lose, aviation-wise, by banning UK flights over Ireland. The inevitable tit-for-tat would cost you dearly - almost every single flight from an Irish airport to mainland Europe and Scandinavia has to pass over the UK's airspace.


Your PM's sabre-rattling stance is preposterous in the extreme.


tac

sparky42

tac foley wrote: »

You think?


Get real.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5972845/Irish-PM-mocked-saying-ban-British-planes-airspace.html


The who-flies-where deals are part of international treaties, and you can try and break them at your peril. Ireland has MUCH more to lose, aviation-wise, by banning UK flights over Ireland. The inevitable tit-for-tat would cost you dearly - almost every single flight from an Irish airport to mainland Europe and Scandinavia has to pass over the UK's airspace.


Your PM's sabre-rattling stance is preposterous in the extreme.


tac

It's impressive how much the UK is spinning this to the levels of EPIC BULL****, it's in reference to the UK losing access to the Open Skies agreement. Christ stop inventing **** to get outraged about and deal with the fact the reality thanks, it would be great help.

tac foley

As long as the UK is in NATO it will continue to fulfil its obligations to maintaining the security of Europe. A bunch of troublesome grocers turned dictators in Brussels have no say in the NATO alliance commitments.

It was YOUR PM who threatened to close Irish skies to the UK, not the other way around.

tac

sparky42

tac foley wrote: »

As long as the UK is in NATO it will continue to fulfil its obligations to maintaining the security of Europe. A bunch of troublesome grocers turned dictators in Brussels have no say in the NATO alliance commitments.

It was YOUR PM who threatened to close Irish skies to the UK, not the other way around.

tac

Christ DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT IS?


That is what he was talking about, so stop running around beating your chest in stupidity, everyone from the Airlines to the EU to the US has made it clear you lose access to that in a No Deal, get over it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/hysteria-over-varadkar-aviation-comments-doesn-t-fly-1.3571565

tac foley

Thank you for your calm and measured response to my comments. Your words should serve as an example of tolerance and helpfulness to others who might provide a much less than gentle response to an older person who plainly does not understand the ramifications of governments and their intransigence.

However, perhaps a gentle reminder that airplanes fly in two directions would not go amiss. Ireland without the UK would be in a much worse position than UK without Ireland.

Just a thought.

tac

roadmaster

Apart from burning a few extra kilos of fuel I can’t see why Irish and our European friends can’t simply fly down by Tusker rock and over to France for air traffic to get over and back. No need to go near the uk but I have no douth the UK will see sense and everything will get sorted out

Nate--IRL--

tac foley wrote: »

However, perhaps a gentle reminder that airplanes fly in two directions would not go amiss. Ireland without the UK would be in a much worse position than UK without Ireland.

Just a thought.

tac

Have a read of this, it may help with understanding what the aviation issues actually are, when relating to Brexit.

Stolen from... http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?p=935331#p935331

The entire story of Aviation in the EU, or even anywhere in the world, is devilishly complex. Unfortunately the discussion is being conducted at the intellectual level of grunting.

Firstly, there is the Chicago convention on freedoms of Air Travel. This is a treaty that almost every country in the world has signed up to and dates from the forties. This means that neither the EU nor the UK can prevent the other from traveling in each other's air space. All nations have the right to make flights across another state's territories and to make stops without obtaining prior permission. To prevent another nation from operating flights in your air space is an act of war. Not rhetorical war, actual war. Based on this one can say that air travel will have a legal basis to continue after Brexit, right?

Well here is where it starts to fall apart. There is no such thing as unconstrained freedom. All rights are limited. Saying that yes, ok, you have a right to fly planes through our air space does not mean that one can fly any plane at all flown by any old clown. All pilots and all air frames that fly in the EU airspace must be certified as trained and airworthy by the relevant part of the EU, the European Aviation and Safety Agency, the EASA. All Pilot's licenses are issued under the umbrella of the EASA. All aviation maintenance yard worker are certified as qualified by the EASA. No one even so much as changes a light bulb on an airplane without being certified as being qualified to do so by the EASA. Once Brexit happens no British Pilots have a license to fly anymore. No maintenance staff are qualified to do routine work. No planes are certified as air worth. They all expire on date of Brexit.

No licenses or air worth certificates means that planes can not fly. There are many different legal reasons why planes can't fly. It has nothing to do with retaliation or any crap like that. Airlines and insurance companies simply can not allow them to fly. Can you imagine what would happen in the scenario that there was an air crash and the plane or pilot didn't have a license?

Then there is a little known about agency called Eurocontrol. It's not little, it's actually massive but largely unknown. Eurocontrol predates the entire European project and manages air traffic control throughout continental Europe. Over the last few decades Eurocontrol has largely been incorporated into the EU and expanded greatly over what it was originally setup as. Without EU membership British access to Eurocontrol goes into a legal quagmire. The UK de-facto no longer has access to Eurocontrol. This means it is not clear if British airplanes will be able to route international flights through Eurocontrol's air traffic control. The general feeling is that Britain will no longer have access to air traffic control in European air space after Brexit.

Then there is international flights to the US for example. EASA has a cross agreement with America about standards. After Brexit these cross agreements come to an end and need to be replaced with something else. There is nothing else to fall back on.

Brexit means that all of the legal infrastructure comes to an end. There are those that think the EU will cave in at the last minute and allow access to air space. It doesn't work like that, there is no legal frame work to do so.

The UK doesn't seem to understand that it is playing chicken with a physical object, a rule book. One can get as angry as one wants at the rule book, but the book doesn't care; it's a book!

Nate

sparky42

tac foley wrote: »

Thank you for your calm and measured response to my comments. Your words should serve as an example of tolerance and helpfulness to others who might provide a much less than gentle response to an older person who plainly does not understand the ramifications of governments and their intransigence.

However, perhaps a gentle reminder that airplanes fly in two directions would not go amiss. Ireland without the UK would be in a much worse position than UK without Ireland.

Just a thought.

tac

You are the one who came in here yelling about what Varadkar said without doing some reading on the complexity of the modern international airline system, based off of some fairly excessive and distorted reporting in UK media.


Forgive me after seeing the same "how dare the Paddies say anything against us!", I'm a bit fed up of the same argument.



And again we are well aware of what that impact will be, but in the case of a No Deal (which the Tories seem hell bent on now), there's no legal basis for us to continue as is, it's just not there, just as how Whitehall was looking at sea based power supplies due to the potential collapse of the Irish Single Energy Market. The US has already made it clear for example they intend to restrict UK airlines while demanding further access to the US airlines into the UK.

roadmaster

sparky42 wrote: »

You are the one who came in here yelling about what Varadkar said without doing some reading on the complexity of the modern international airline system, based off of some fairly excessive and distorted reporting in UK media.


Forgive me after seeing the same "how dare the Paddies say anything against us!", I'm a bit fed up of the same argument.



And again we are well aware of what that impact will be, but in the case of a No Deal (which the Tories seem hell bent on now), there's no legal basis for us to continue as is, it's just not there, just as how Whitehall was looking at sea based power supplies due to the potential collapse of the Irish Single Energy Market. The US has already made it clear for example they intend to restrict UK airlines while demanding further access to the US airlines into the UK.

It is mental to think the British government is actually having to think of sourcing generators from Afghanistan to keep the lights on in Belfast

Owryan

tac foley wrote: »

As long as the UK is in NATO it will continue to fulfil its obligations to maintaining the security of Europe. A bunch of troublesome grocers turned dictators in Brussels have no say in the NATO alliance commitments.

It was YOUR PM who threatened to close Irish skies to the UK, not the other way around.

tac

No he didnt. He merely pointed out that leaving the EU without agreements in place meant that the UK would no longer be complying with agreements re open skies, but carry on believing the lies from the red tops, toodle pip and all that.

sparky42

roadmaster wrote: »

It is mental to think the British government is actually having to think of sourcing generators from Afghanistan to keep the lights on in Belfast

Honestly I don't see that happening, but that whole Whitehall paper should have been setting off left and right but instead it's just "Project Fear, ignore". Right now pharma companies are moving patents and drug ownership from UK to other EU nations. There's also suggestions that auto companies are starting to activate their supplychain breaks to remove UK firms from their chains?


Seems the UK Government will be sending out notifications over the coming weeks for No Deal issues, be interesting to see how that goes down.

banie01

Tac, I generally have a lot of time for your measured, informed and usually helpful posts on here.
Your knee jerk reaction to the UK leave spin on the aviation issue is surprising.
Nate _IRL has made a good fist of outlining the issues Brexit raises for the aviation industry in the UK.
Unfortunately the Brexit press are making the issues Brexit raises appear as vindictive actions on the part of the EU, rather than the logical consequences of the decision to leave a single market regulatory structure and the treaties underpinning it.

The UK is approaching Brexit in an absolutely shambolic manner.
The conceit that a nation of 60million can leave a trading bloc of over 600million and then dictate the terms of future trade deals on a more favourable basis, is frankly pie in the sky.
It is compounded by the deal in which Teresa May seeks regulatory alignment on goods, but ignores services which are the backbone of the British economy.
The UK losing the ability to passport funds and issue KIID documentation is already leading to a flight of capital from London, London's status as a financial capital is likely going to be sacrificed on the altar of an ill-informed and frankly deeply xenophobic version of Hard Brexit.

sparky42

banie01 wrote: »

Tac, I generally have a lot of time for your measured, informed and usually helpful posts on here.
Your knee jerk reaction to the UK leave spin on the aviation issue is surprising.
Nate _IRL has made a good fist of outlining the issues Brexit raises for the aviation industry in the UK.
Unfortunately the Brexit press are making the issues Brexit raises appear as vindictive actions on the part of the EU, rather than the logical consequences of the decision to leave a single market regulatory structure and the treaties underpinning it.

The UK is approaching Brexit in an absolutely shambolic manner.
The conceit that a nation of 60million can leave a trading bloc of over 600million and then dictate the terms of future trade deals on a more favourable basis, is frankly pie in the sky.
It is compounded by the deal in which Teresa May seeks regulatory alignment on goods, but ignores services which are the backbone of the British economy.
The UK losing the ability to passport funds and issue KIID documentation is already leading to a flight of capital from London, London's status as a financial capital is likely going to be sacrificed on the altar of an ill-informed and frankly deeply xenophobic version of Hard Brexit.

Not even on a favourable basis as you've now got JRM actively supporting a WTO exit, saying there's nothing to fear from that (says the man whose Fund has already set up in Dublin to retain access to the EU markets that he so despises), and you have people saying they trust him because he's not "part of the elite":rolleyes:.


The complexities of Brexit are huge even in a best case situation, and so far it's been far from that, how it ends I pity the low income segments of the UK.

Negative_G

I must say it is glorious to watch the remnants of the "Empire" squirm under the complexity of BREXIT.

Thankfully, I can't claim to know many "Leave" voters but the ones I have spoken to all have one thing in common - A complete lack of understanding of the complexity of what they (as a nation) are about to undergo.

The perception that the glory days of yesteryear are about to return is laughable. The delusion is comical.

It's just an awful pity that there is nothing to prevent elder folks pontificating about assumed British superiority in almost aspect of society on an Irish forum. It really is a bizarre social occupation.

The cherry on top is Arlene Foster holding the British PM by the short and curlies and making her dance to her tune.

Truly, truly glorious.

roadmaster

Good dam the brits they even manage to ruin our fantasy chats about Irish fighter jets

sparky42

Negative_G wrote: »

The cherry on top is Arlene Foster holding the British PM by the short and curlies and making her dance to her tune.

Truly, truly glorious.

I wouldn't call that a Cherry on Top, I'm fairly sure when all is said and done, May will have overseen the end of the GFA, cause sure as hell Foster isn't concerned about it coming apart. May isn't even bothering to go to the British Irish Council next week (and the Belfast speech was "ordered" by the DUP before hand)

sparky42

roadmaster wrote: »

Good dam the brits they even manage to ruin our fantasy chats about Irish fighter jets

Well to be fair, who knows what the long term impact might be, we are already seeing some movement, sad that the support for PESCO has actually gone up, who knows maybe 10 year from now we might be talking about how Brexit meant we had to change our positions in Defence?


If so BTW I'd go for something European given how "interesting" Trump is making US-EU relations.

Negative_G

banie01 wrote: »

Tac, I generally have a lot of time for your measured, informed and usually helpful posts on here.
Your knee jerk reaction to the UK leave spin on the aviation issue is surprising.
Nate _IRL has made a good fist of outlining the issues Brexit raises for the aviation industry in the UK.
Unfortunately the Brexit press are making the issues Brexit raises appear as vindictive actions on the part of the EU, rather than the logical consequences of the decision to leave a single market regulatory structure and the treaties underpinning it.

The UK is approaching Brexit in an absolutely shambolic manner.
The conceit that a nation of 60million can leave a trading bloc of over 600million and then dictate the terms of future trade deals on a more favourable basis, is frankly pie in the sky.
It is compounded by the deal in which Teresa May seeks regulatory alignment on goods, but ignores services which are the backbone of the British economy.
The UK losing the ability to passport funds and issue KIID documentation is already leading to a flight of capital from London, London's status as a financial capital is likely going to be sacrificed on the altar of an ill-informed and frankly deeply xenophobic version of Hard Brexit.

But, but, BREXIT is about getting rid of all those pesky foreigners*. Giving two fingers to the "grocers" in Brussels and making Britannia great again.

Don't let facts and reasoned debate ruin the narrative!!

Negative_G

sparky42 wrote: »

I wouldn't call that a Cherry on Top, I'm fairly sure when all is said and done, May will have overseen the end of the GFA, cause sure as hell Foster isn't concerned about it coming apart. May isn't even bothering to go to the British Irish Council next week (and the Belfast speech was "ordered" by the DUP before hand)

As someone who has absolutely no interest or attachment to Northern Ireland whatsoever, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Northern Ireland is a basket case.

sparky42

Negative_G wrote: »

Don't let facts and reasoned debate ruin the narrative!!

Well remember what Gove said, the UK has had enough from "experts", they'll go with "feelings" from here on out...As I've said elsewhere, it almost makes our shower in the Daíl look not the worst...

sparky42

Negative_G wrote: »

As someone who has absolutely no interest or attachment to Northern Ireland whatsoever, it doesn't concern me in the slightest.

Northern Ireland is a basket case.

Currently it's a basket case that doesn't need much outside attention, it decides to set itself on fire again because the DUP see Brexit as a way of turning back the clock to pre GFA (and at least some like Gove don't support it either) and then it might concern a lot more people.

Or even worse if May and Arlene go back to Direct Rule, and the UK projections for the Brexit fallout come true (ie NI gets screwed the worst of all the UK), would it concern you if soft n Nationalists and soft u Unionists start thinking maybe Dublin might be better?

Also why is the software constantly putting in double spacing when I type?

banie01

sparky42 wrote: »

Or even worse if May and Arlene go back to Direct Rule, and the UK projections for the Brexit fallout come true (ie NI gets screwed the worst of all the UK), would it concern you if soft n Nationalists and soft u Unionists start thinking maybe Dublin might be better?

The intransigence of the Arlene and co, coupled with the indecisiveness of May are already having a huge impact on the peace wrought by the GFA.
Both hard N and U factions are looking down the road towards a return to border and a return to violence.
The escalation in the level of violence over the 12th week is really just step 1.

The UK's stance on the GFA, it's willingness to repudiate terms that were and are the basis for a return to actual politicking in N.I are frightening.
The speed at which the blame for a return to any border is cast at the feet of Ireland and the EU is frankly ridiculous.
The border issue was raised by Ireland, Major and Blair prior to the referendum and was shrugged of by Brexiteers as waffle.
It is waffle that could very well lead to a return to violence, and couple that with the withdrawal of EU funding from the 6 counties?
A level of spending currently far in excess of elsewhere in the UK suddenly dries up!
Do the Tories magically make their £350mln per week support both the NHS and N.I know?
Does the rest of the U.K feel that N.I warrants much higher per capita spending than the rest of the UK? Will it continue?

I have serious misgivings on Brexit as a whole. I'd feel a lot less concerned about it if it was actually a referendum based on facts, and honest figures with all info presented to the electorate.

However here in Ireland we are in the unique position of consuming a huge amount of UK media.
BBC/Sky/ITN are all watched as much as the Irish news outlets, and the readership of UK papers is correspondingly high.
The Brexiteers campaign was presented as a jingoistic return to "Great" Britain a return to self governance and a take back of "Sovereignty".
The exit campaigned was framed by immigration, justice and keeping British money for British services.

The UK managed to appear to the International media as lurching to the right and towards xenophobia!
The majority of us Irish know well it's not, that it is a generally welcoming country that has shaped our own for better and for worse over the last 800yrs.
But the majority of us Irish, also remember being treated as potential terrorists every time someone heard us speak.
Being detained and questioned at every interaction with customs/police/security services, and to be honest a lot of Irish fear a return to that when the border returns and the likely outcomes of that play out.
The emergence of the perceived "Muslim" threat did Irish in the UK a little more benefit in the long run than the GFA!

UK immigration from the EU is a massive red herring, of more concern for the UK needs to be the immigration to the UK from the former Empire.
But at present the Brexiteers are somehow under the impression that by embracing the commonwealth and pursuing trade deals with them that markets for UK goods and services can be replaced.
Somehow I don't think the majority of the commonwealth will be beating a door towards the UK for what's on offer

Hoping to sell 1st world goods and services to developing and emerging economies is hardly a model for sustained growth let alone sustaining current economic strength.
Who knows, maybe May will magically make a North Atlantic free trade zone of English speaking countries happen?
Based on Canada, the US and the Carribbean?
Couldn't possibly imagine what could go wrong there?

Now as for our need for fighters!
With the size of our EEA and our position on the western approaches to Europe, it should be a given that we can provide at least a credible Air policing role.
To my mind that necessitates at least a Squadron, 2 bases and ancillary service and support infrastructure.
US equipment would to my mind be ruled out unless a spectacularly good deal was offered.
Euro equipment centres on the Gripen and they do offer a leasing and support deal for the entirety of the service cycle.
The Eurofighter in reality is ruled out on cost and political grounds, as whilst it is a "Euro" project, it is sold and supported by BAE.
The Rafale would likely also be ruled out on overall cost grounds.
That said, ideally any aircraft purchased for the role should be dual engined to offer a degree of overeater redundancy.

An air policing agreement and secondment of Irish pilots to the unit set up for this would be the most likely and most cost effective means of getting this up and running.
This would allow Irish Pilots, Groundcrew and ATC to train on new equipment and procedures needed for fast jet ops with minimal risk.
Being mentored by whomever we go into partnership with and developing training and support doctrine for ourselves whilst being supported..
The step to fast jet ops is massive, and as can be attested to by the many failed efforts at other Air services to step to fast jet operations without an operational or doctrinal background to support it, is often doomed to failure.
Take any of the African, Asian, Middle Eastern air forces that attempted the step to fast jet ops, then look for the one that managed it without massive ongoing technical and advisory support.
Then look for any Air Service that has managed to maintain that level of serviceability after the support was withdrawn or reduced?
Ideally an Air policing partnership, would allow a degree of training, interoperability and support that can then be independently assumed and maintained by Ireland.

source

The Leonardo (Alenia Aermachi) M346 would be a great option in my mind for Ireland to enter the world of fighter jets.

Tried and tested platform, twin engine, capable of air to air and air to ground operations and it's transonic. Ceiling of 45K ft and unit cost of c. $20m each. Range of almost 2,000km and can carry a payload of almost 3,000 kg.

In use in jet trainer, air to ground and air policing roles. Used by Israel, Italy, Poland, Singapore and Turkmenistan. It's also part of the T-x programme for the USAF as the T100.

A solid piece of kit which would fulfill the roles Ireland would place on it, with a not ridiculous initial price tag and i believe the per hour cost is approximately $2k to $2.5k.

But this is all Walter stuff.