Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Kermit.de.frog

DOCARCH wrote: »

Mod Note: Can we keep the TAF debate for another day/thread, thanks.

BTW. Mods are happy to have TAFs reported/included in threads, generally, as long as those posting them give some explanation/decode them.

Can you attach a yellow warning to this thread? (the one M.E will issue today). I'd argue orange is merited in some locations but it's definitely a yellow.

I would but I can't edit the OP.:(

ninebeanrows

Forecast from ME on Morning Ireland mentioned risk of some snow accumulations. Sounded like a newbie forecaster.

George Sunsnow

BBC News 24 graphics just now

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

Forecast from ME on Morning Ireland mentioned risk of some snow accumulations. Sounded like a newbie forecaster.

Funnily enough his name was Matty

beefburrito

What a rollercoaster ride,one day it's snow,next no snow now it's snow.....

Where too next ???

Villain

Harmonie shows what a mess this is with rain then snow then rain then snow.

No doubt higher ground will do well out of this but on lower levels it's going to be a mess with nowcast scenario.

munsterlegend

beefburrito wrote: »

What a rollercoaster ride,one day it's snow,next no snow now it's snow.....

Where too next ???

Not much has changed really. The north and northwest will do ok out of this. Elsewhere it could be anything from rain to hail to sleet to snow.

Periscal

Villain wrote: »

Harmonie shows what a mess this is with rain then snow then rain then snow.

No doubt higher ground will do well out of this but on lower levels it's going to be a mess with nowcast scenario.

Hi Villain, Do you have a link to those Harmonie charts?
We in west Wicklow should do very well out of this setup,there might be a temporary covering on Tuesday as we are around 200m asl

beefburrito

munsterlegend wrote: »

Not much has changed really. The north and northwest will do ok out of this. Elsewhere it could be anything from rain to hail to sleet to snow.

I'm near the Poulnabrone dolmen in the Burren, hopefully something might happen.
I have a few photos of it snowed under on my old laptop.
Lisdoonvarna is elevated enough for ninja snow....

Villain

Periscal wrote: »

Hi Villain, Do you have a link to those Harmonie charts?
We in west Wicklow should do very well out of this setup,there might be a temporary covering on Tuesday as we are around 200m asl

Nope afraid not, someone who has access has just shown them to me and Wicklow could do well but it will be hard to call the snowline at times it could be above 200m and obviously the storm Wednesday will clear it.

torres9kop

Will it snow in leafy Dublin 4 tomorrow Tuesday please?

JCX BXC

torres9kop wrote: »

Will it snow in leafy Dublin 4 tomorrow Tuesday please?

Will the Taoiseach go to the bathroom at exactly 11:49 tomorrow?

blast06

torres9kop wrote: »

Will it snow in leafy Dublin 4 tomorrow Tuesday please?

If you still have leaves on the trees, then probably 'no'

pauldry

Snow or no snow it will be an almighty mess just slush n dirt

ninebeanrows

Harmonie surely underplaying snow risk IMO.

sideswipe

beefburrito wrote: »

What a rollercoaster ride,one day it's snow,next no snow now it's snow.....

Where too next ???

Ahh I see a pattern there.......back to no snow?

Periscal

Villain wrote: »

Nope afraid not, someone who has access has just shown them to me and Wicklow could do well but it will be hard to call the snowline at times it could be above 200m and obviously the storm Wednesday will clear it.

How would you rate Harmonie's accuracy against Euro4, GFS or Yr.no in these
type of events?
From my exprerience west Wicklow is one of the coldest places under these synoptics, places along N81 like Brittas,Blessington and Hollywood.

George Sunsnow

Periscal wrote: »

Hi Villain, Do you have a link to those Harmonie charts?
We in west Wicklow should do very well out of this setup,there might be a temporary covering on Tuesday as we are around 200m asl

Yeah precip tomorrow at that elevation in Wicklow should be snow
If precip reaches you

Villain

Weathercheck wrote: »

Harmonie surely underplaying snow risk IMO.

It was scarily accurate during the last spell of snow here in Carlow, had East Carlow rain and West Carlow snow and it was spot on, will be interesting to track again.

Villain

Periscal wrote: »

How would you rate Harmonie's accuracy against Euro4, GFS or Yr.no in these
type of events?
From my exprerience west Wicklow is one of the coldest places under these synoptics, places along N81 like Brittas,Blessington and Hollywood.

It was spot on for this region in the last snow setup but that was a different setup to this Northwest flow. I'd give Harmonie more time than GFS for sure.

dacogawa

Although I don't trust the GFS for these type of events the 6z is out so I'll just leave this here...

ThaitaniumM

dacogawa wrote: »

Although I don't trust the GFS for these type of events the 6z is out so I'll just leave this here...

Is that a little blue around Cork :P

HighLine

GFS still looking good but as others have said... perhaps not to be trusted.

dmcsweeney

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath
Widespread wintry showers may lead to snow accumulations.

Issued:Monday 15 January 2018 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 16 January 2018 06:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

I see Met Eireann have left west Munster out of the warning. Is it only the GFS showing snow for us down here?

KingdomRushed

For me this is a weird one. On the one hand I see the promise in the GFS graphics, I see the met.ie warning for snow accumulations, yet, from experience I am struggling to accept a northwest flow with such a long sea track can deliver the goods. I am still not expecting meaningful snow fall where I am, Dublin.

Villain

dmcsweeney wrote: »

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath
Widespread wintry showers may lead to snow accumulations.

Issued:Monday 15 January 2018 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 16 January 2018 06:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

I see Met Eireann have left west Munster out of the warning. Is it only the GFS showing snow for us down here?

I love when they include Laois and Kildare but not Carlow

RobertKK

Villain wrote: »

I love when they include Laois and Kildare but not Carlow

Or Kilkenny.

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

It was spot on for this region in the last snow setup but that was a different setup to this Northwest flow. I'd give Harmonie more time than GFS for sure.

Yea it did very well with the frontal stuff. I'm not sure it does too well with the precip type during showery regimes, the charts available don't show the full picture though, just the rain and snow contingent, the wet snow/graupel parameter should be included to get a better handle on what the model truly shows and obviously a look at the tephis etc. The rain/snow precip type on harmonie should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Oscar Bravo

Thundersnow mentioned in the knock TAF for tomorrow morning ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

ZX7R

Villain wrote: »

I love when they include Laois and Kildare but not Carlow

I also wondered about this in the past, simply because it's due to elevation