Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Rebelbrowser

Had a very quick whisk through those models I can access. It really is all duck or no dinner on them and interesting its not a north / south split or anything either. From what I can see, in overview, in terms of snowfall its:-

Arome - No for anywhere
Aperge - No for pretty much anywhere
GFS - Yes for pretty much everywhere
Icon - No for pretty much anywhere
Euro 04 - Yes for pretty much everywhere
Hirlam - Yes for pretty much everywhere
GEM - No for pretty much anywhere

Pangea

Heard it's snowing on the Glenshane Pass

redsteveireland

pad199207 wrote: »

That’s what im saying it never snows here lol

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105676488&postcount=160

pauldry

Hey wheres Kermit

Im losing hope.

Think for Sligo town anyways

Hail tonight
Maybe wet snow in morning
Sleet tomorrow n rain
then more sleet tomorrow night
then rain and hail for a time wednesday

then broken trees Wednesday night

Certainly no lying snow in latest for Sligo

Sea effect and wind scuppers it

Then mild next week

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I am not overly hopeful for my location (Cork city suburbs) - albeit a better chance than in previous events this winter - but I don't see why Kildare would have a better chance than much of west Munster. God knows we will get the precipitation (we always do)....

There is a huge North-south temperature gradient across the country tomorrow, leading to a higher snowline in the south. For example, the 850 hPa level will be at around 1150 m on the north coast to around 1320 metres on the south coast. That's 170 metres of a difference, but the same temperature. So technically the snowline should be around that much higher in the south.

beefburrito

pauldry wrote: »

Hey wheres Kermit

Im losing hope.

Think for Sligo town anyways

Hail tonight
Maybe wet snow in morning
Sleet tomorrow n rain
then more sleet tomorrow night
then rain and hail for a time wednesday

then broken trees Wednesday night

Certainly no lying snow in latest for Sligo

Sea effect and wind scuppers it

Then mild next week

I remember year's ago getting the bus from Galway to Letterkenny and if any time snow was forecasted for the West it would be Sligo and Leitrim.... right up to Letterkenny it would b'é white...
Especially from 97 to 00

The stuff was solidified onto the road,you'd hear the crunching sounds....

JanuarySnowstor

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I am not overly hopeful for my location (Cork city suburbs) - albeit a better chance than in previous events this winter - but I don't see why Kildare would have a better chance than much of west Munster. God knows we will get the precipitation (we always do)....

There is a huge North-south temperature gradient across the country tomorrow, leading to a higher snowline in the south. For example, the 850 hPa level will be at around 1150 m on the north coast to around 1320 metres on the south coast. That's 170 metres of a difference, but the same temperature. So technically the snowline should be around that much higher in the south.

Thats not correct to say that imo
The cold doesn't arrive until afternoon but by 6pm the South is every bit as cold as the North.
I'll stand on my head if Cork isn't buried by tomorrow evening lol

Gaoth Laidir

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Thats not correct to say that imo
The cold doesn't arrive until afternoon but by 6pm the South is every bit as cold as the North.
I'll stand on my head if Cork isn't buried by tomorrow evening lol

Every bit as cold? So you're saying the south will be the same as the north? Sorry but that's just not true. Not saying Cork Airport (150 m) won't see some sleet or brief wet snow at times, but at lowest levels it's way more marginal in the south.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Thats not correct to say that imo
The cold doesn't arrive until afternoon but by 6pm the South is every bit as cold as the North.
I'll stand on my head if Cork isn't buried by tomorrow evening lol

Love your optimism and hope you are right but you are a tad too optimistic at times!

antodeco

Flying out on Thursday to the UK. Ill either be snowbound here (or windbound!) or Ill be snowbound (or windbound!) there!

Manuseo

After many years of lurking and reading the daily forecasts I have decided to join. Why now? I have no idea, maybe in support of Kermit or to berate him later.
I live in Down and during the last snow event before Christmas he got it spot on for us. We had no snow forecast by anyone except Kermit.
I read the thread here and everyone was so negative and the UKMO had nothing forecast. I never moved of the sofa to lamppost watch. Imagine my surprise going to bed when I couldn't see the houses on the other side of the street because of heavy snow. We had about 3cm then and 6cm by morning.
I am hoping for similar again.
So far, it was 7c and rain then one hail shower that brought temperature down to 5c, dry since.

Rebelbrowser

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Thats not correct to say that imo
The cold doesn't arrive until afternoon but by 6pm the South is every bit as cold as the North.
I'll stand on my head if Cork isn't buried by tomorrow evening lol

One of these days (maybe tomorrow?) you will get the eponymous outcome suggested by your username!

dmcsweeney

Just been looking at the latest GFS update which looks epic. Reading the posts there seems to be no real faith in it on here. But at less than 24 hours surely it must be accurate or am I missing something major. Apologies for the newbie questions.
Regards,
Dave

pad199207

dmcsweeney wrote: »

Just been looking at the latest GFS update which looks epic. Reading the posts there seems to be no real faith in it on here. But at less than 24 hours surely it must be accurate or am I missing something major. Apologies for the newbie questions.
Regards,
Dave

If it is correct a good majority of us tomorrow will be VERY HAPPY

dmcsweeney

pad199207 wrote: »

If it is correct a good majority of us tomorrow will be VERY HAPPY

If it's correct every pub owner in the country will be happy!!!!

SeaBreezes

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Had a very quick whisk through those models I can access. It really is all duck or no dinner on them and interesting its not a north / south split or anything either. From what I can see, in overview, in terms of snowfall its:-

Arome - No for anywhere
Aperge - No for pretty much anywhere
GFS - Yes for pretty much everywhere
Icon - No for pretty much anywhere
Euro 04 - Yes for pretty much everywhere
Hirlam - Yes for pretty much everywhere
GEM - No for pretty much anywhere

Except cork (nothing in cork for all of them..) snow shield is operational :-(

irish1967

dmcsweeney wrote: »

If it's correct every pub owner in the country will be happy!!!!

Or sad if we can’t get to the pub 😉

irish1967

Will be interesting to see what snow I get here.
Advantage = Donegal
Disadvantage = 100meters from Donegal Bay.

Villain

dmcsweeney wrote: »

Just been looking at the latest GFS update which looks epic. Reading the posts there seems to be no real faith in it on here. But at less than 24 hours surely it must be accurate or am I missing something major. Apologies for the newbie questions.
Regards,
Dave

There are a lot of variables and the resolution of GFS standard models don't really distinguish them well enough. The higher resolution models have mess of rain-sleet-snow-back to sleet for many areas so trying to call where there will be lying snow is difficult.

I'd be fairly confident that many areas will see snow falling for a time but how long for and where it will stick is very hard to call.

Most of us who have watched weather for a number of years have many mental scars of seeing weather models forecasting snow from a NorthWesterly only to end up with sleet or small bit of graupel so those scars keep us wary now.

dmcsweeney

Villain wrote: »

There are a lot of variables and the resolution of GFS standard models don't really distinguish them well enough. The higher resolution models have mess of rain-sleet-snow-back to sleet for many areas so trying to call where there will be lying snow is difficult.

I'd be fairly confident that many areas will see snow falling for a time but how long for and where it will stick is very hard to call.

Most of us who have watched weather for a number of years have many mental scars of seeing weather models forecasting snow from a NorthWesterly only to end up with sleet or small bit of graupel so those scars keep us wary now.

Thanks for the explanation. I guess it's a game of wait and see then.

Gaoth Laidir

Dewpoint coming down at Belmullet. 1.8 °C now, temperature 6.8.

redsteveireland

Temp around 4.5 here with the last passing shower. Cold breeze making it unpleasant to walk in.

dmcsweeney

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Snow showers will affect Ulster and Connacht tonight and will extend to most other areas late in the night and during Tuesday morning. Some accumulations of snow are likely, especially in northern and western areas and over hills elsewhere, along with some slippery conditions.

Issued:Monday 15 January 2018 16:20
Valid:Tuesday 16 January 2018 23:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00

Big change from earlier.

Gonzo

Temp now down to 5C here, still dry. Lots of showers now starting to appear around the country, most of them still rain at this stage.

BLIZZARD7

I'm expecting patchy accumulations across the country (1-3cm), border counties and some of the hilly North west/Midlands will do quite well I suspect (5-10cm). For the east Coast from Dublin south I expect to see falling snow at least and maybe a dusting in parts. North of Dublin should do a bit better.

The South will be hit and miss with more mixing going on, high ground will get snow, could see a dusting in some lucky spots lower down if there's some really beafy showers or anything more organised crossing the country. If we don't see anything organised and the less optimistic models are correct we will be looking at a more sleety/hail scenario with snow accumulations in only favored locations.

Higher ground (200m+) anywhere in the country could see a covering.

Hopefully we some some thunderstorms and organised troughs in the mix to pep things up. Should be quite an interesting day anyway.

Villain

Latest GFS brings the system Wednesday evening about 100 miles south which could mean snow again for Ulster, interesting to watch.

Updated Weather Warnings:
STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

Westerly winds will reach mean winds speeds of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h at times. Winds will moderate for a time during Wednesday but further wind warnings likely for Wednesday night.
Issued:
Monday 15 January 2018 10:00
Valid:
Monday 15 January 2018 21:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00


STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland

Snow showers will affect Ulster and Connacht tonight and will extend to most other areas late in the night and during Tuesday morning. Some accumulations of snow are likely, especially in northern and western areas and over hills elsewhere, along with some slippery conditions.
Issued:
Monday 15 January 2018 16:20
Valid:
Tuesday 16 January 2018 23:00 to Wednesday 17 January 2018 03:00


STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

High or very high seas are going to affect the Atlantic Seaboard over the next few days, leading to an increased risk of coastal flooding.
Issued:
Monday 15 January 2018 13:00
Valid:
Monday 15 January 2018 21:00 to Thursday 18 January 2018 09:00

Oneiric 3

redsteveireland wrote: »

Temp around 4.5 here with the last passing shower. Cold breeze making it unpleasant to walk in.

A balmier 5.6c here with a dew point of 3c. Showers pretty light and lame so far.. and of rain.

JCX BXC

Netweather Radar turning green and red over the north, recent strike near Portrush in the north.

JCX BXC

Moderate Snow showers in the TAF (forecast) for Dublin Airport tomorrow from 5pm, albeit with a Prob 30 attached (TEMPO 1617/1618 1500 SHSN BKN004)

No snow for Shannon, but plenty of mention of thunderstorms, sleet and grauple.

Snow in the forecast for Cork too, from 4pm, with a PROB 40 attached (TEMPO 1616/1618 1200 SHSN BKN004 BKN012CB)

Knock TAF is quite something, thunderstorms, hail/grauple and plenty of mention of snow from 2am tonight!
(PROB 40
TEMPO 1602/1612 0800 SN BKN003 BKN014CB
PROB 30
TEMPO 1605/1612 TS
TEMPO 1612/1618 0400 TSSNGS BKN002 BKN012CB)

Captain Snow

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