Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think we're running a bit behind schedule. Even the EURO4 is backtracking on every run. The 06Z had Ulster completely covered in snow at midnight tonight, the 12Z a bit less, and now the 18Z has just rain.

The whole of Ulster should currently be under a blanket of snow even going by the most recent GFS, this is only 6 hours out on the model so shows once again how poorly it handles snow

George Sunsnow

Villain wrote: »

Some Lightning south of Carlow earlier

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/953050728255361025

Down near mount Leinster/Bunclody area

Villain

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Down near mount Leinster/Bunclody area

Yep center of that Camera is Mount Leinster

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think we're running a bit behind schedule. Even the EURO4 is backtracking on every run. The 06Z had Ulster completely covered in snow at midnight tonight, the 12Z a bit less, and now the 18Z has just rain.

Ive always been agnostic on this event (but hopeful as always), however the 18z euro 04 does follow a trend I identified earlier of those models going for snow doing so on a country wide basis. Whilst the euro 04 is now slower in introducing the snow to the north it has it country wide to mizen head by noon so still pretty bullish. As I said I remain to be convinced but this does look like an all duck or no dinner affair.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Euro4 00z chart is fairly accurate in an overall sense.

There is a little bit more snow around at the moment than was progged for midnight.

kod87

Donegal Storm wrote: »

The whole of Ulster should currently be under a blanket of snow even going by the most recent GFS, this is only 6 hours out on the model so shows once again how poorly it handles snow

I assumed most people just didn't pay any attention to these gfs snow cover charts. They were always rubbish and this thread is the first thread where I have seen people actually try to take them seriously.

RuthieRose

Heavy snow here in cavan. Not sticking because it’s to wet.

Kermit.de.frog

Most of the country is sub -7c at 850 hpa level by 6 am. Currently sub -4c generally at midnight.



The air aloft is also becoming progressively colder as lower thicknesses spread.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most of the country is sub -7c at 850 hpa level by 6 am. Currently sub -4c generally at midnight.

The air aloft is also becoming progressively colder as lower thicknesses spread.

6 am is another story, but I'm just saying that at the moment we're running behind where the most optimistic models said we'd be now.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

6 am is another story, but I'm just saying that at the moment we're running behind where the most optimistic models said we'd be now.

Possibly. I don't consider a few hours to be that big a deal for me.

It's behind compared to a couple of days a go for sure - but not by that much.

End product is what matters.

patneve2

At a good stage now with showers starting to turn over the North. Reckon there should be accumulations there down to lower levels by dawn at the latest. As stated above, the colder uppers (-41/-42 at 500hpa) are still a good 10-12 hours away. The apex of this event should be tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Rebelbrowser

In defence of the gfs, it was the first model to predict this cold spell and then the first model to predict Wednesday's interrupting low. in both cases all the other models followed suit so it has some (uncharacteristic!) credibility in terms of this cold spell.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Possibly. I don't consider a few hours to be that big a deal for me.

It's behind compared to a couple of days a go for sure - but not by that much.

End product is what matters.

Behind compared to 12 hours ago.

asteroids over berlin

Gaoth Laidir

Snow reported at two stations in the North at midnight, Lough Fea (225 m) and Ballypatrick Forest (156 m). Rain elsewhere.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=2&nav=Yes&lat=55N&lon=010W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2018&mes=1&day=16&hora=0&min=0&vsg=Sg

gozunda

squarecircles wrote: »

Looks impressive,Init,but I'm highly dubious , especially at the immediate coast,cant foresee accumulations at the immediate coast,in what I call 'slosh' a fluctuating combination of hail,sleet and wet snow that won't accumulate.

Gosh,I feel like gaoth Laidir pissing all over the GFS snow charts.

Not saying the chart will materialise as depicted but it can happen - I will never forget seeing several inches of snow on the coastline (sandy beach) in Co Waterford in 1982. The snow was only washed away as the tide came in...

piuswal

Anyone ever use

https://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/

just plug in location

Kermit.de.frog

Showers further south, north of Munster are turning to sleet now.

Over Ulster increasingly of snow. More snow than sleet now but still a mix.

North midlands also increasingly showers are now falling as snow.

Here in North Dublin currently 2.9c/1.8c

Pangea

Hailstones here in SW Donegal, I have no doubt that further inland and on higher elevations it is falling as snow.

Kermit.de.frog

Here in North Dublin on the edge now. 2.0c/0.9c

Howth is a good barometer as well. 2.4c/1.1c there.

http://howthweather.com/

Rodar08

Rain rain rain Washout here in Buncrana. Not a bit of frost either.

nacho libre

There are not many snow reports in the north as of yet. Also any settling snow seems to on high ground so far.

Kermit.de.frog

1.7/0.7c here. North Dublin.

Precipitation from now is quite likely to be snow.

Gerry

It still sounds a lot like rain here in North Kildare.

Gaoth Laidir

So, I think we can say we're still waiting for those GFS and EURO4 snow charts to verify. Now 5 am and it's still mostly rain reports. And Donegal Airport moderate rain, dewpoikt +2. We need one hell of a swing in the next hour.

Gaoth Laidir

So, I think we can say we're still waiting for those GFS and EURO4 snow charts to verify. Now 5 am and it's still mostly rain reports, even in the North. Two stations above 150 m reporting snow. Donegal Airport moderate rain, dewpoint +2. We need one hell of a swing in the next hour.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=2&nav=Yes&lat=55N&lon=010W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2018&mes=1&day=16&hora=5&min=0&vsg=Sg

Kermit.de.frog

Snowing at sea level, North Dublin.

Started as rain now light - moderate snow, not wet snow either. Quick transition too.



Bodes very well.

Gaoth Laidir

A reminder of what the GFS said we should be getting at 6 am.

Kermit.de.frog

Think you need to get over it

Snow shower finished here.

stephenjmcd

Cold in bray but there's been much colder mornings recently than this. No ice around either. Hoping for something later on fingers crossed