Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

sdanseo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I mean, there really isn't much competition :pac:.

Not here in snow-deprived Dublin, but Galway has had a couple of decent run-ins with the white stuff. Pity they couldn't give it directions to the east.

Fitzo123

pauldry wrote: »

Hey i was going to write that.

Cairns Road direction so a bit higher here.

Roads look lethal.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

There is here. Almost winter, aside from that abomination last year, had more lying snow (when it did occur) than there has been today. Of course nothing compared to the real deal in 2010, but still.

2015-16 had more?

I'm talking about the whole Winter, not just today.

pad199207

Place is like an ice rink out there now

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

I see.
Well either way it proves westerlies can deliver, and those who were downplaying the chances of snow at lower levels were wrong. Also while the GFS might embellish the snow potential in these scenarios, in this particular instance it ws closer to the mark than other models which suggested mostly rain shower at lower levels . We have two inches of snow back home. I am told it was blizzard like conditions at times!

Not usually one to defend the GFS so explicitly, but I feel it needs just a little credit regarding today. Nobody expected a 2010 type scenario. It just is what it is.

Gonzo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Debatable.

so far it's a toss up between this winter and 2013.

2011,2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 had very little going for them in terms of snow.

Today's event is probably the first time many people in the greater Dublin region has seen measurable lying snow since 2010. There were slightly deeper snow depths during March 2013 but they were melted by 11am each morning.

Kermit.de.frog

Some merging of precipitation currently occurring associated with an occlusion in the northern half of the country.

Could bring more prolonged snow to north Leinster for a time and possibly in to the Dublin area in the next hour or two.

Snow showers continuing here in North Dublin, more propensity for the snow to settle now even in lighter phases.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

2015-16 had more?

I'm talking about the whole Winter, not just today.

Pretty sure (though not totally) we had lying snow at some stage back in that winter.

If we are talking about the whole of winter, then this winter would still be well below average for snowfall events. Maybe this will change in the 2nd half.

m17

Galway city

pad199207

Half an inch on the cars here in Naas. Little less on the ground

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Pretty sure (though not totally) we had lying snow at some stage back in that winter.

If we are talking about the whole of winter, then this winter would still be well below average for snowfall events. Maybe this will change in the 2nd half.

Would said lying snow event(s) be around the middle of February 2016?

Gaoth Laidir

Weathercheck wrote: »

20mm I assume ??

EC did a good job. Harmonie needs improvements. Would be good to see GFS wet bulb projections , but unfair to judge the dewpoint charts unless comparing to 2m temp at that exact time step.

No, 2 mm. Hmmm, strange that. So a ratio of 90:1? Impossible, something wrong there. There must be a drift on the snow platform area.

Sorry, I got it wrong, the ECM was actually the one showing -4 surface dewpoints, the GFS has -2. Both were wrong on this front, but the ECM moreso. However, the ECM got the key upper temperatures closer to reality. Luckily there was an 18Z radiosonde sent up from Castor Bay (Lough Neagh) this evening and we can see the exact temperature profile here.

Actual 850 hPa temperature -6.5 °C, ECM -7, GFS -9.
Actual 700 hPa temperature -17.9, ECM -18.5, GFS -21.
Actual 500 hPa temperature -39, ECM -38, GFS -42

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

Would said lying snow event(s) be around the middle of February 2016?

Haven't a clue! don't have records at hand.

Snowbiee21

Have to say Kermit, spot on for this spell . Fair play to you , you are the most positive poster on here . Can’t thank you enough for what your doing . Keep up the good work . Hats off to you !!

patneve2

Been in a dry slot for a while now. Still a slight dusting of snow in gardens and on roofs. Will wait and see what happens with those showers over the north midlands and north west, but think that that's it for me. Would rate this Westerly pretty highly simply because it managed to produce a 2/3 showers of relatively dry snow in an area that rarely sees solid precip. from a PM airmass. Have to thank the strength of the flow that managed to push those showers 200km over land (even though this had a tendency to blow showers through quickly).

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Haven't a clue! don't have records at hand.

I remember some reports of snow on 11th & 14th February 2016, not sure if there was any lying snow involved though:





Yes, my snowfall total this Winter is still below average and I haven't had an above average Winter for snow since 2010-11, but I have to be grateful for what I'm given.

Donegal Storm

Gonzo wrote: »

so far it's a toss up between this winter and 2013.

2011,2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 had very little going for them in terms of snow.

Today's event is probably the first time many people in the greater Dublin region has seen measurable lying snow since 2010. There were slightly deeper snow depths during March 2013 but they were melted by 11am each morning.

If strictly talking about snow then this winter is clearly the best effort since 2010 for the country as a whole. Overall though I'd say 2013/14 was far more interesting and noteworthy with so many big storms, I was living in the UK at the time but even there we had multiple big storms, one after another for weeks

thecretinhop

m17 wrote: »

Galway city

AHA! great stuff that was about 7pm?

sryanbruen

I'll echo what I said two weeks ago:

I think this Winter is kind of a teaser of what we should expect come Winters in the next few years following solar minimum.

Buffalobill29

I'll have to say despite my negativity earlier regarding the snow event, it turned out to be decent with a nice long fall of sticky snow. Fair play Irish weather you have done a good job today and I am greatful for the white stuff.

George Sunsnow

Snowing nicely again here near Arklow
Everything covered since earlier
Haven’t headed up to Croghan yet (circa 350 mtrs asl)
Am hearing horror stories of a pajero stuck up there so waiting for co driver before heading up

Currently 0.6c
Dp -1c here

sdanseo

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Have to say Kermit, spot on for this spell . Fair play to you , you are the most positive poster on here . Can’t thank you enough for what your doing . Keep up the good work . Hats off to you !!

Must echo this, nailed it.

Of course snow is always incredibly marginal and we were just the right side of that. That's not to say that others who were more pessimistic weren't valuable too. GL especially always very rational and realistic , even when it's not what we want to hear. Contributions far more knowledgeable than mine and very much appreciated.

highdef

Dublin is going to get a pasting very soon!!!

snowstorm445

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember some reports of snow on 11th & 14th February 2016, not sure if there was any lying snow involved though:





Yes, my snowfall total this Winter is still below average and I haven't had an above average Winter for snow since 2010-11, but I have to be grateful for what I'm given.

I remember there being a few centimetres of lying snow in Dublin one morning in early 2016. Only real lying snow I’ve seen here in Dublin since I’ve moved up here (apart from today).

sryanbruen

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I remember there being a few centimetres of lying snow in Dublin one morning in early 2016. Only real lying snow I’ve seen here in Dublin since I’ve moved up here (apart from today).

I cannot give or remember that day unfortunately 'cause I had no lying snow at all in 2016.

Manitoban

Close to the coast in Louth, have at least an inch of snow already and it’s pelting down at the minute. Had to drag the kids in to get them to bed, hope it’s still there in the morning.

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No, 2 mm. Hmmm, strange that. So a ratio of 90:1? Impossible, something wrong there. There must be a drift on the snow platform area.

Sorry, I got it wrong, the ECM was actually the one showing -4 surface dewpoints, the GFS has -2. Both were wrong on this front, but the ECM moreso. However, the ECM got the key upper temperatures closer to reality. Luckily there was an 18Z radiosonde sent up from Castor Bay (Lough Neagh) this evening and we can see the exact temperature profile here.

Actual 850 hPa temperature -6.5 °C, ECM -7, GFS -9.
Actual 700 hPa temperature -17.9, ECM -18.5, GFS -21.
Actual 500 hPa temperature -39, ECM -38, GFS -42

All of what you say is correct but the gfs progged this event first and then progged the storm tomorrow first so on a macro level it did well. I think the value of the gfs precipitation charts for snow events is that it flags possible events. you then take that with a large pinch of salt until the high res models give it some support. Then ypu are sucking diesel. The gfs is a sort of early warning system in other words.

sdanseo

Had to re-upload the pictures, but last time North Co. Dublin had comparable snow was March 2016:

sdanseo wrote: »

Ventured out in the car. Rear wheel drive. Bad idea, thought I was going to be stranded at one point on a back road.

Snapshots from the dashcam:

Kermit.de.frog

Incoming for Dublin in the next half hour.

Possibly the "main event" for us.

United road

Kermit - you are the man! Stuck to your guns and said this would deliver - it has for me in Stepaside South Dublin.
I like GL and know he posts as he sees it (Cant love GL like i do The Frogster as GL is normally saying its not as positive for snow) but enjoyed the back and forth in advance of today!
My first proper snow since 2010. I was beginning to grow old and lose faith id see any ever again.
Often see posters say how its great to get out with kids in the snow, i get that, but kind of glossed over those posts! So to finally get out myself with 3 year old, throw snowballs and take some great pics - well i have a new appreciation for those previous posters!
It was bliss! And it dawned on me! Only seeing 1.5 - 2cms of lying snow here, but for my little guy, that would feel like its up to his knees!!
So a happy camper here and again to GL, George and especially you Kermit - thanks a mil!