Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Gaoth Laidir

nacho libre wrote: »

I will respectfully have to disagree. Sub 528 thickness in past north westerly and northerly airflows has delivered snow for my area. I often recall having snow with 525- 520 dam thickness. I am not expecting powdery snow anyway. Wet snow will do fine. Given the dew points it should start accumulating monday night- the caveat being provided charts are not downgraded.

If wet snow in the fires of hell does it for you then fair play. I'm not interested in that rain-turning to sleet-to wet snow-back to rain-can't make up my mind- muck :rolleyes:

JanuarySnowstor

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm afraid Kermits I don't agree with Kermits interpretation of the charts .

MOD Changed the wording of your post

In his selective chart posting, he omitted the upper level temp charts for any of the period under discussion, they never exceed -6C at 850, which would be marginal enough in an E/NE'ly situation, but in an atlantic system with a long fetch - albeit polar maritime - they are basically curtains for snow on all but high ground in the north west and north.

A couple of comments:
1) Snow can fall from zero uppers in an Easterly.
2) I'm old enough to remember snow falling from a Southwesterly here in Cork. Yes a southwesterly and snow falling on the south coast. 1984 I think it was.

In general I think Kermits thread is warranted and probably needs to go amber quite soon.

As always time will tell and humble pie will get swallowed

Kermit.de.frog

Trough lines will offer some enhancement to the shower activity from Monday night.

SeaBreezes

Sitting on the south coast and every single chart says rain for us. :-( loving the discussion and the passion on the threads lately. Says a lot about how interested people are in the weather! Thank you to all who post charts and discuss its all education to me. Appreciate ye taking the time to post. Thank you.

Oneiric 3

I recall that this particular set up in Feb 2014 brought a day of heavy snow showers here, which did settle leading to a good few cms of relatively 'dry' snow for a time.



Though keeping in mind that this was in Feb, when sea temps and Td's in general tend to be lower than at this point of January. We are never going to get epic amounts of snow from a cold westerly (though Jan '84 would be an exception) but snow can happen under such a set up, though whether it will this time around remains to be seen.

M.T. Cranium

Right now the interesting feature to watch is a wave of low pressure that the GFS has featured at 12z and 18z moving through the southwest, with implied rain-snow boundary somewhere like Clare to Waterford, and potential for significant accumulations north of that. It may be one of those GFS figments or it may turn out to be a solution that other models will catch onto later (00z runs perhaps?).

For now it's not well enough supported to give it more than a one in four chance, but it would be more than just elevation based snowfalls in passing showers. If it comes about. The model uncertainty is related to a difficult system over eastern U.S. today, that was very poorly forecast by all models as recently as 48-72 hours ago. Getting better resolution on it now, GFS seems to develop this Wednesday feature out of the wave currently moving northeast through West Virginia, or possibly a trailing wave on its cold front. Could all be gone by tomorrow though ...

Kermit.de.frog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Right now the interesting feature to watch is a wave of low pressure that the GFS has featured at 12z and 18z moving through the southwest, with implied rain-snow boundary somewhere like Clare to Waterford, and potential for significant accumulations north of that. It may be one of those GFS figments or it may turn out to be a solution that other models will catch onto later (00z runs perhaps?).

For now it's not well enough supported to give it more than a one in four chance, but it would be more than just elevation based snowfalls in passing showers. If it comes about. The model uncertainty is related to a difficult system over eastern U.S. today, that was very poorly forecast by all models as recently as 48-72 hours ago. Getting better resolution on it now, GFS seems to develop this Wednesday feature out of the wave currently moving northeast through West Virginia, or possibly a trailing wave on its cold front. Could all be gone by tomorrow though ...

The shortwave GFS progs for Wednesday night? ECM and UKMO have it but the timing is inconsistent - There is a 12 - 18 hr difference.

I reckon it could be something, we don't want it deepening too much though.

George Sunsnow

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A couple of comments:
1) Snow can fall from zero uppers in an Easterly.

Only if the air from cloud base to ground is not above zero which won’t be the case next week or any week coming in off the Atlantic
Hence the concerns that GL quite rightly pointed out

Now it will be as interesting as ever to see what trumps what in the journey from Baffin to Ireland but I think coastal western areas wil be mostly out of luck on this one
A direct shot down the eastern Atlantic from the pole closer to Ireland and then returning in on a South westerly would actually be better
But well inland and certainly high ground it’s a yes

Not sure what’s going to happen in Cork but I’d expect some snow there at times as the northwesterly has enough land track en route to drop the rh and dew point

nacho libre

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If wet snow in the fires of hell does it for you then fair play. I'm not interested in that rain-turning to sleet-to wet snow-back to rain-can't make up my mind- muck :rolleyes:

Wet snow will do me fine here Gaoth Laidir:pac:
It will be mostly sleet and snow showers for the first couple of days with modest accumulations. Wednesday is when there may well be a mix of rain, sleet, and wet snow across parts of the country.

giveitholly

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Only if the air from cloud base to ground is not above zero which won’t be the case next week or any week coming in off the Atlantic
Hence the concerns that GL quite rightly pointed out

Now it will be as interesting as ever to see what trumps what in the journey from Baffin to Ireland but I think coastal western areas wil be mostly out of luck on this one
A direct shot down the eastern Atlantic from the pole closer to Ireland and then returning in on a South westerly would actually be better
But well inland and certainly high ground it’s a yes

Not sure what’s going to happen in Cork but I’d expect some snow there at times as the northwesterly has enough land track en route to drop the rh and dew point

And tipperary?

Oneiric 3

Chart from mid-January 1984:



Notice how far east the -10c isotherm was over the north Atlantic. Something that would be inconceivable in today's climate.

fraxinus1

nacho libre wrote: »

Prove it. You have turned your back on snow so many times here, i don't blame snow if it now turns its back on you:(

...but seriously you should see a bit of snow this week. I will hopefully be looking on enviously at the snow pictures on here next week.

I don’t have the optimism that you guys have. I get disappointed and admittedly a tad narky when things go belly up! But I’m quietly hopeful next week will deliver. In fact I’m supposed to go to visit my son and family in Dublin on Monday but might leave it until next weekend as I don’t want to miss Donegal getting decent snowfall.

George Sunsnow

giveitholly wrote: »

And tipperary?

It’s a big county!
Roscrea is further north than some of Wicklow!
Lots of precip is key
From an imby perspective in Wicklow,I’m interested in the shortwave but ONLY if the wind is northwesterly

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

It’s a big county!
Roscrea is further north than some of Wicklow!
Lots of precip is key
From an imby perspective in Wicklow,I’m interested in the shortwave but ONLY if the wind is northwesterly

so now you want a northwesterly wind:p

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I recall that this particular set up in Feb 2014 brought a day of heavy snow showers here, which did settle leading to a good few cms of relatively 'dry' snow for a time.



Though keeping in mind that this was in Feb, when sea temps and Td's in general tend to be lower than at this point of January. We are never going to get epic amounts of snow from a cold westerly (though Jan '84 would be an exception) but snow can happen under such a set up, though whether it will this time around remains to be seen.

Correct it did, that was the only day of 2014 I received any snow. I remember the day well as I was doing PE in school then it started to snow which cancelled it. Here's a picture of Dublin on that day:

Oneiric 3

If I get to see some lightning during this spell, then that'll be enough for me. Nothing like a cold and airy starry night seeing big blue flashes lighting up the sky from big showers on the west coast.

George Sunsnow

nacho libre wrote: »

so now you want a northwesterly wind:p

Absolutely if there’s precip from a shortwave coming up from the south and cold air in place!
Lovely icy dew points coming down off lugnaquilla ,snowmageddon yum yum

typhoony

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If wet snow in the fires of hell does it for you then fair play. I'm not interested in that rain-turning to sleet-to wet snow-back to rain-can't make up my mind- muck :rolleyes:

Possibly but personally watching approaching Cumulonimbus clouds rising up high into the deep blue skies is fascinating, that's not what I would call muck, latest GFS is a slight upgrade so rain will be in the minority for most places it will be hail\sleet and snow. throw in a bit of thunder for good measure and you have an interesting weather week ahead.

Longing

8'' snow from this set up 3 years ago.

Much similer chart has we have seen today for early next week.

highdef

Longing wrote: »

8'' snow from this set up 3 years ago.

Much similer chart has we have seen today for early next week.

Where are you located? 8" seems a lot for everywhere except maybe high ground in the north or north west

Longing

Sorry! N Cavan - S Monaghan

Oneiric 3

Monthly mean of 850 temps and anomaly for Jan '84.



Serious period in weather history.

nacho libre

Longing wrote: »

Sorry! N Cavan - S Monaghan

How high above sea level are you?

Oneiric 3

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Absolutely if there’s precip from a shortwave coming up from the south and cold air in place!
Lovely icy dew points coming down off lugnaquilla ,snowmageddon yum yum

Think I might spend my old age (if I make it that far) living in Wicklow. Miles of beach to my front, mountains at my back. Not sure about the people, but sure I'd have to put with them. :P

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If I get to see some lightning during this spell, then that'll be enough for me. Nothing like a cold and airy starry night seeing big blue flashes lighting up the sky from big showers on the west coast.

I must say i miss those winter nights too, the flash lightning way off in distance after a hefty shower. Winter 2009 was a stand out year too, as i saw thunder snow and lighting for the first time. It was an incredible sight.

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

Correct it did, that was the only day of 2014 I received any snow. I remember the day well as I was doing PE in school then it started to snow which cancelled it. Here's a picture of Dublin on that day:

Nice accumulations in that photo

Looking at hourly reports for that day, Dublin Airport reported rain, sleet and hail, with two light snow showers that night, while Casement reported rain, with two reports of snow in the late afternoon. No accumulations at either station.

To me, that is not what I would call a snow event. Rain and sleet turning to brief wet snow that doesn't accumulate is more a nuisance than something to look forward to. That's not what I'm talking about when I say 516 dam, etc.

Meteorite58

Interested in how the sea ice flow limit is brought so far out of the Labrador Sea and off Greenland by the very strong winds forecast to whip down from there from around Sunday. Wondering if this could help to keep air temps down a fraction more or perhaps it would be considered negligible. The sea state created by the winds would probably cancel out any extra cooling from any ice brought offshore in the sea and probably too short a time span also?

850 hPa wind







Huge seas developing next week also.

Longing

nacho libre wrote: »

How high above sea level are you?

Not sure. Was looking for survey map online to see heights. But cannot find one.

Gaoth Laidir

Longing wrote: »

Not sure. Was looking for survey map online to see heights. But cannot find one.

www.gridreference.ie

Longing

nacho libre wrote: »

How high above sea level are you?

169m - 555ft