Donald Trump Presidency discussion thread III

weisses

RIGOLO wrote: »

The Gallup Economic Outlook numbers came out this week. 
It reflects alot of the back and fro discussion that took place here earlier this week. 
The numbers do highlight the improved job and economic situation for ordinary Americans under Trump. Atleast thats my reading of the NUMBERS and the charts, others may disagree with Gallup and the numbers and charts. 
There was very little feel good in the later years of Obama, very little optimisim or positive outlook for getting a well paid job and for the economy in general. 
Yes many Americans felt/were left behind under Obama, and the numbers tell that same story, whihc as we all know was reflected in the polling station.
Whilst their was a recovery from rock bottom, things had flightlined and stagnated , but gathered pace and momentum post Trumps election
This is from Gallup, who tend not to be politically biased . They may get things wrong sometimes, but I dont see them as politically motivated. 
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx
And these numbers are old , Feb , but again by State they reflect above average outlook for the 'fly over states' the ones who came out and swung the election for DT. 
The map on this link is very interesting if your a numbers nerd, if one were to overlay the States Trump won with the states feeling above avg economic confidence outlook they would nearly match, with California and NY (popular vote winners) showing a below avg outlook. 
https://news.gallup.com/poll/226772/wyoming-north-dakota-utah-lead-economic-confidence.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=tile_2&g_campaign=item_1609&g_content=Wyoming%2c%2520North%2520Dakota%2c%2520Utah%2520Lead%2520in%2520Economic%2520Confidence
I like these charts cos they reflect personal consumer, mom and pop outlook, the wisdom of the crowd type thing .

Propaganda Doesn't matter

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/394493-the-debt-curve-from-hell-is-upon-us


Trump's short term policy will backfire ... His fan base is just to stupid to see it

Igotadose

weisses wrote: »

Propaganda Doesn't matter

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/394493-the-debt-curve-from-hell-is-upon-us


Trump's short term policy will backfire ... His fan base is just to stupid to see it

Agree about the Trumplodytes swallowing whatever their orange messiah spews, but that article from an ex-GWB flack, is sh1te. His boss bloated the debt by engaging in off-book war financing that he stuck his successor with fixing, that and letting the inmates run the asylum when it came to watching what the banks were up to. Now he's giving credit to Trump's 'tax plan' as stimulating the economy, what a joke.

But in Trumpworld, always-wrong Larry Kudlow now says the deficit's coming down. He's wrong, of course, but he's ALWAYS wrong, which is why he's perfect for the Trump admin, they can't be threatened by anyone actually competent working there: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/larry-kudlow-says-deficit-coming-down-rapidly-against-cbo-evidence.html?recirc=taboolainternal

RIGOLO

weisses wrote: »

RIGOLO wrote: »

The Gallup Economic Outlook numbers came out this week. 
It reflects alot of the back and fro discussion that took place here earlier this week. 
The numbers do highlight the improved job and economic situation for ordinary Americans under Trump. Atleast thats my reading of the NUMBERS and the charts, others may disagree with Gallup and the numbers and charts. 
There was very little feel good in the later years of Obama, very little optimisim or positive outlook for getting a well paid job and for the economy in general. 
Yes many Americans felt/were left behind under Obama, and the numbers tell that same story, whihc as we all know was reflected in the polling station.
Whilst their was a recovery from rock bottom, things had flightlined and stagnated , but gathered pace and momentum post Trumps election
This is from Gallup, who tend not to be politically biased . They may get things wrong sometimes, but I dont see them as politically motivated. 
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx
And these numbers are old , Feb , but again by State they reflect above average outlook for the 'fly over states' the ones who came out and swung the election for DT. 
The map on this link is very interesting if your a numbers nerd, if one were to overlay the States Trump won with the states feeling above avg economic confidence outlook they would nearly match, with California and NY (popular vote winners) showing a below avg outlook. 
https://news.gallup.com/poll/226772/wyoming-north-dakota-utah-lead-economic-confidence.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&g_medium=tile_2&g_campaign=item_1609&g_content=Wyoming%2c%2520North%2520Dakota%2c%2520Utah%2520Lead%2520in%2520Economic%2520Confidence
I like these charts cos they reflect personal consumer, mom and pop outlook, the wisdom of the crowd type thing .

Propaganda Doesn't matter

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/394493-the-debt-curve-from-hell-is-upon-us


Trump's short term policy will backfire ... His fan base is just to stupid to see it

The CBO numbers are a bit like the Steele dossier, when it comes to economic forecasting its the only game in town for some people, everyones relying on them to take potshots , and its their only source . 
And just like the dossier theres plenty analysis to dispute them . 

Besides Trump has a long way to go yet to add the same DOLLAR amount as Obama, Obama may have been 60+% add to the debt but in dollar terms he was the highest of any President at nearly 8 trillion. 
Thankfully the Trump adminstration doesnt just have just a short term policy, nor indeed one policy when it comes to the economy, it has a multi-faceted short term and long term policy.

jooksavage

RIGOLO wrote: »

The CBO numbers are a bit like the Steele dossier, when it comes to economic forecasting its the only game in town for some people, everyones relying on them to take potshots , and its their only source .
And just like the dossier theres plenty analysis to dispute them .

Besides Trump has a long way to go yet to add the same DOLLAR amount as Obama, Obama may have been 60+% add to the debt but in dollar terms he was the highest of any President at nearly 8 trillion.
Thankfully the Trump adminstration doesnt just have just a short term policy, nor indeed one policy when it comes to the economy, it has a multi-faceted short term and long term policy.

CBO numbers are nothing like the Steele dossier. Nothing. For nearly 45 years the CBO has been the federal government's primary source of budgetary and economic information. It's a cornerstone of the federal budget process. The notion that its "potshots" are no more informed than natural born s**t-for-brains like Larry Kudlow has echoes of the "sick of experts" attitude that gave us Brexit.

Leroy42

RIGOLO wrote: »

Yes many Americans felt/were left behind under Obama, and the numbers tell that same story, whihc as we all know was reflected in the polling station.
Whilst their was a recovery from rock bottom, things had flightlined and stagnated , but gathered pace and momentum post Trumps election

These points are fundamentally wrong.

HC got more votes that Trump, so not sure what you are trying infer from the voting numbers. And HC was a very disliked candidate, mainly because of false news propaganda spread by the GOP and Trump so I am not that we can take anything about the economy from the results. It is also really clear that HC was looking at a victory until the FBI reopened the investigation into her e-mails based on a false premise so close to the election.

What flatlining are you talking about? The economy was still growing, unemployment was continuing to decline, and in fact Trump has had little effect on this. The best that can be said about Trump is that he hasn't been a negative influence. But he had had to rip up regulations and hand out a massive tax to achieve that.

weisses

RIGOLO wrote: »

whilst in the 2 most recent posts Trump supporters have been called 'stupid' and Trumplodytes..... and there doesnt seem to have been any action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFQhw3VVToQ

What action do you want based on tons of similar videos ?

Midlife

RIGOLO wrote: »

The Gallup Economic Outlook numbers came out this week. 
It reflects alot of the back and fro discussion that took place here earlier this week. 
The numbers do highlight the improved job and economic situation for ordinary Americans under Trump. Atleast thats my reading of the NUMBERS and the charts, others may disagree with Gallup and the numbers and charts. 
There was very little feel good in the later years of Obama, very little optimisim or positive outlook for getting a well paid job and for the economy in general. 
Yes many Americans felt/were left behind under Obama, and the numbers tell that same story, whihc as we all know was reflected in the polling station.
Whilst their was a recovery from rock bottom, things had flightlined and stagnated , but gathered pace and momentum post Trumps election
This is from Gallup, who tend not to be politically biased . They may get things wrong sometimes, but I dont see them as politically motivated. 

And these numbers are old , Feb , but again by State they reflect above average outlook for the 'fly over states' the ones who came out and swung the election for DT. 
The map on this link is very interesting if your a numbers nerd, if one were to overlay the States Trump won with the states feeling above avg economic confidence outlook they would nearly match, with California and NY (popular vote winners) showing a below avg outlook. 

I like these charts cos they reflect personal consumer, mom and pop outlook, the wisdom of the crowd type thing .

Anyone crediting either administration for that economic pattern is massively biased.

The american economy has been more or less steadily improving since the end of the crash.

That tends to happen after crashes.

Midlife

Leroy42 wrote: »

And HC was a very disliked candidate, mainly because of false news propaganda spread by the GOP and Trump

In fairness HRC was always always disliked. The democrats ran the wrong person.

There's still a fairly high level of misogyny in the states. If they were running a female she had to find wins somewhere else. Hillary was status quo, establishment, AND a woman.

Leroy42

Totally agree that they should have run someone else. HC was possible always disliked, in part of course because she was a woman, but the GOP and the right wing carried out a very long and successful demonisation of her that took her far past the normal dislike that people have of politicians. Many voters really hated the woman.

But that is for another thread. The point I was making was in rebuttal of Rigolo incorrect assertion that it was because people were left behind and the economy had stagnated that Trump won. But the more votes for HC would seemingly go against that and that is even with the hatred that many voters had, so one could argue that had the DNC run with Sanders or (theoretically) Obama they would have done much better. So the point they were trying to make is plain wrong.

spacecoyote

It's like comparing apples & oranges re Obama & Trump in terms of adding to the deficit.

Obama had to come in with a stimulus package & pump out money to bring the US out of the worst recession in a generation or 2.

Trump inherited am economy on the up with low unemployment & solid growth. He's bumping up the deficit at a time when he should probably be in a position to actually reduce the national debt. But who wants to worry about the future when you can create a better short term narrative today!!!

everlast75

What exactly is wrong with the Steele dossier?
As time has gone on, more and more of it has proven to be spot on.
None of it has been proven as being incorrect.
Feel free to let me know.

johnnyskeleton

Igotadose wrote: »

Agree about the Trumplodytes swallowing whatever their orange messiah spews, but that article from an

weisses wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFQhw3VVToQ

Mod Note:

Please read the charter re: standards of debate

Water John

An intel document like Steele, doesn't tell you what happened. It tells you what's likely to have happened. That is the bar. By that standard the Steele dossier is a remarkable document.

RIGOLO

jooksavage wrote: »

RIGOLO wrote: »

The CBO numbers are a bit like the Steele dossier, when it comes to economic forecasting its the only game in town for some people, everyones relying on them to take potshots , and its their only source .
And just like the dossier theres plenty analysis to dispute them .

Besides Trump has a long way to go yet to add the same DOLLAR amount as Obama, Obama may have been 60+% add to the debt but in dollar terms he was the highest of any President at nearly 8 trillion.
Thankfully the Trump adminstration doesnt just have just a short term policy, nor indeed one policy when it comes to the economy, it has a multi-faceted short term and long term policy.

CBO numbers are nothing like the Steele dossier. Nothing. For nearly 45 years the CBO has been the federal government's primary source of budgetary and economic information. It's a cornerstone of the federal budget process. The notion that its "potshots" are no more informed than natural born s**t-for-brains like Larry Kudlow has echoes of the "sick of experts" attitude that gave us Brexit.

Id hazard a guess and say you havent been monitoring CBO forecasts for the last 2 decades but like many people given the number can be used to bash Trump your suddenly up to speed on it. 
 
The CBO numbers are so given to errors and getting it wrong that in 2015 the CBO wrote a report on itself all about their forecasting errors.

You can read it here .. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/49891-forecastingrecord2015.pdf
this snippet is worth emphasining   " [font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif]CBO’s forecasts generally have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the [/font][font=source_sans_proitalic, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif]Blue Chip[/font][font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif] consensus, with large errors by CBO tending to reflect difficulties shared by other forecasters. "[/font][font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif] 
[/font]
Remember this is the  CBO recognising that the CBO has had large errors. 
By their own admission their root mean square error on GDP is close on 1.5%, which is a sizeable error on the GDP scale.  
And the numbers that came in for 2017 wage growth, inflation and treasury notes are already proving the CBO were very wrong on their 2015 2 year forecasts. 
So not only have the CBO admitted they frequently got it wrong in the past, the current numbers coming in are showing they were wrong as we speak.
As to your glib comment about 'sick of experts & Brexit' . When it comes to economic forecasting  , the CBO did offer one defence. 
The defence being that when the CBO got it wrong , all the other experts got it wrong too. 

Theres plenty statistical analysis of 'experts' getting economic forecasting wrong, this one from Buisness insider is among the easier reading for the non-mathematically minded. 
http://www.businessinsider.com/8-charts-prove-economic-forecasting-doesnt-work-2016-1?IR=T ;

Theres also always been a question of whether the CBO has had an 'Administration ' bias, and again the CBO talk about this themselves in their own reports. My own opinion is they have, you need to only look at how they have tracked the Administrations forecasts down thru the last 2 decades. 

So Im going with the Trump Administration forecasts, I think an anti-Trump bias is present in the CBO, and factor in their own error rate Im comfortable with letting Larry Mnuchin hold the reins for a while and see where things pan out, like I said its a multifaceted, short and long term policies. 

Just keep in mind two things the next time you quote the CBO numbers, remember the CBO 2015 Forecasting Record report admission of 'large errors' in CBO projections and also root mean square error of 1.5% thats totally huge !

aloyisious

Bloomberg news reporting that Scott Pruitt resigned and Don has tweeted that he has accepted his resignation. Don tweeted that Dep Sce will take over onMonday and will continue the good work that Scott was doing. Side-bar on the programme news screen reporting that Don's save the collieries plan will result in an increase in air pollution.

Thargor

RIGOLO wrote: »

Id hazard a guess and say you havent been monitoring CBO forecasts for the last 2 decades but like many people given the number can be used to bash Trump your suddenly up to speed on it. 
 
The CBO numbers are so given to errors and getting it wrong that in 2015 the CBO wrote a report on itself all about their forecasting errors.

You can read it here .. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/49891-forecastingrecord2015.pdf
this snippet is worth emphasining   " [font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif]CBO’s forecasts generally have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the [/font][font=source_sans_proitalic, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif]Blue Chip[/font][font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif] consensus, with large errors by CBO tending to reflect difficulties shared by other forecasters. "[/font][font=source_sans_proregular, Helvetica, Roboto, Arial, sans-serif] 
[/font]
Remember this is the  CBO recognising that the CBO has had large errors. 
By their own admission their root mean square error on GDP is close on 1.5%, which is a sizeable error on the GDP scale.  
And the numbers that came in for 2017 wage growth, inflation and treasury notes are already proving the CBO were very wrong on their 2015 2 year forecasts. 
So not only have the CBO admitted they frequently got it wrong in the past, the current numbers coming in are showing they were wrong as we speak.
As to your glib comment about 'sick of experts & Brexit' . When it comes to economic forecasting  , the CBO did offer one defence. 
The defence being that when the CBO got it wrong , all the other experts got it wrong too. 

Theres plenty statistical analysis of 'experts' getting economic forecasting wrong, this one from Buisness insider is among the easier reading for the non-mathematically minded. 
http://www.businessinsider.com/8-charts-prove-economic-forecasting-doesnt-work-2016-1?IR=T 

Theres also always been a question of whether the CBO has had an 'Administration ' bias, and again the CBO talk about this themselves in their own reports. My own opinion is they have, you need to only look at how they have tracked the Administrations forecasts down thru the last 2 decades. 

So Im going with the Trump Administration forecasts, I think an anti-Trump bias is present in the CBO, and factor in their own error rate Im comfortable with letting Larry Mnuchin hold the reins for a while and see where things pan out, like I said its a multifaceted, short and long term policies. 

Just keep in mind two things the next time you quote the CBO numbers, remember the CBO 2015 Forecasting Record report admission of 'large errors' in CBO projections and also root mean square error of 1.5% thats totally huge !

How do you manage to mess up every single link in your posts along with such terrible formatting? Have you been given a list of links and talking points that you copy and paste (badly) from? Its seriously suspicious. You are the only user on this site who posts like that.

Water John

Yes Pruitt going was being speculated. As someone said, there are a whole number of GOP who could fillet the EPA, with less public odium.

pixelburp

Pruitt going is great news, but the EPA is so gutted, and Pruitt himself went out of his way to stack the organisation with industry shills it's hard to see it getting better anytime soon. The dictum from the top is to cut environmental protections and that won't stop (especially legislation originating from Obama).

Leroy42

And what is the bets that his supporters will out claiming that this (Pruitt resignation) is another example of Trump Draining the Swamp!

Still, it is sad to see another of the best people going. FOr a man that knows the best people he certainly didn't pick many of them for his original admin. Still, that being a brilliant businessman I suppose

everlast75

As i posted Pruit was still there, and now he has resigned, let me try this.

*cough*


"I can't believe Trump is still President!"

pixelburp

So apparently Pruitts vice president is one Andrew Wheeler, IIRC former coal lobbyist and virulent climate change denier. Reads to be a bit of a fundamentalist, so the danger could be the incompetence of Pruitt is replaced by vindictive competence.

everlast75

For those interested, here is his letter of resignation...

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1014965976599875585?s=19

No apologies.

Anyone wanna buy a $43k soundproof telephone booth?

ECO_Mental

everlast75 wrote: »

For those interested, here is his letter of resignation...

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1014965976599875585?s=19

No apologies.

Anyone wanna buy a $43k soundproof telephone booth?

That letter makes me sick and angry...the groveling and praising Trump is beyond cult like behavior

Itssoeasy

I never ever expected Rick Perry to be the best of a bad lot, but apparently even though he may not understand the energy dept(or remember it's name) he is supposed to at least be trying his best to understand the brief. And that comes from both sides of the aisle. Also when you read up on the proposed education secretary of Mexico and his credentials for the post and look at Betsy Devos it makes it even worse. She hasn't got an iota nor does she want to understand her dept.

That 60 minutes interview Betsy Devos did should have been such an easy one but she made such a mess of it. The interviewer was even trying to help her at points.

Thargor

ECO_Mental wrote: »

That letter makes me sick and angry...the groveling and praising Trump is beyond cult like behavior

everlast75 wrote: »

For those interested, here is his letter of resignation...

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1014965976599875585?s=19

No apologies.

Anyone wanna buy a $43k soundproof telephone booth?

That third paragraph is like something from dystopian science fiction...

Remember when Trump held that meeting where they went around the table everyone had to declare how wonderful he is:

Itssoeasy

ECO_Mental wrote: »

That letter makes me sick and angry...the groveling and praising Trump is beyond cult like behavior

Well you hardly expected it was going to be an apology did you ?

everlast75

ECO_Mental wrote: »

That letter makes me sick and angry...the groveling and praising Trump is beyond cult like behavior

Playing the victim too. Maybe the public scrutiny his family received might have something to do with his rampant corruption????

Itssoeasy

Also is Trump scheduled to meet the queen when he comes to Britain ? I can imagine the train wreck that would be if it happens.

aloyisious

I imagine that Don will tweet in the near future that the Dems and/or the GOP forced a good man from office. If Don think's that the Dep Sec will continue the good work, then that say's how he [publicly] envaluate's the job done by Scott. I wonder who really wrote the resignation letter.

Itssoeasy

aloyisious wrote: »

I imagine that Don will tweet in the near future that the Dems and/or the GOP forced a good man from office. If Don think's that the Dep Sec will continue the good work, then that say's how he [publicly] envaluate's the job done by Scott.

Of course he will or some rambling stream of nothingness. If ability and competency were high qualities then the White House and Washington would not have a functioning government.