Donald Trump Presidency discussion thread III

Water John

Akrasia, just listened to all the podcast, very good.

Manic Moran

Well, that's interesting. I wonder how the DPRK is going to spin denuclearization to its people. Let alone that Kim would meet with the Great Satan.

david75

You just know Trump is going to play this like an ultra alpha male Trump victory moment and fvck it up before he even meets Kim

david75

https://twitter.com/armscontrolwonk/status/971904221380427776?s=21

Peregrinus

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Slightly off topic but while researching a reply to this bizarre rant I was looking up what countries held the most of US Debt. China is top creditor at over 1.1 Trillion dollars. 2nd is Japan with 1 Trillion.

Then in third we have.....Ireland, at almost 330 Billion dollars.

Anyone know how this came to be? It has to be some sort of tax scheme or loophole.

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Couple of points:

1. This isn't a list of US Treasury securities held by foreign governments; just by foreign persons or entities. It may be the case that much of the Chinese holdings are held directly or indirectly by the Chinese government, or at least are held by people or entities very responsive to the wishes of the Chinese government, but this wouldn't be the case with, e.g., the Irish holdings.

2. Note 1 to the table is important. What's measured here is who is registered as the holder of the security, but huge amounts of securities are held by trustees/custodians on behalf of, e.g, mutual funds, pooled investment funds, etc. A fund could be registered in Dublin, but have few or no Irish investors/members. My guess is that a large part of the Irish holding simply represents the fact that Ireland is a signficant centre for funds management.

3. Another possibility is US multinationals who retain their earnings outside the US (to avoid US tax) doing so in Ireland. You're a US multinational sitting on a huge pile of cash in Ireland that you don't as yet wish to repatriate to the US or distribute to stockholders; how are you going to invest the cash to keep it safe? Why, by lending it to Uncle Sam, of course.

Manic Moran

It's a fair point, but there are only two ways this was going to end. One was with armed conflict, the other was with the two folks meeting. The West took too long to put really significant pressure on the North. If the cost is that DPRK gets a propoganda win, but there actually is a de-nuclearisation process, it's a win.

4068ac1elhodqr

The Dealmaker.

Zubeneschamali

Manic Moran wrote: »

If the cost is that DPRK gets a propoganda win, but there actually is a de-nuclearisation process, it's a win.

But NK get an even bigger win by having Trump visit, announcing that they will not denuclearize, laughing in his face and sending him packing.

spacecoyote

https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/971538152367251457?s=19

Some potentially interesting numbers there?

Pepefrogok

Do you think trump will keep his Nobel peace prize in the white house or will he display it at one of his many successful businesses?

Manic Moran

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Manic Moran wrote: »

If the cost is that DPRK gets a propoganda win, but there actually is a de-nuclearisation process, it's a win.

But NK get an even bigger win by having Trump visit, announcing that they will not denuclearize, laughing in his face and sending him packing.

Perhaps, but since RoK are apparently acting as the brokers, it would also manage to piss off the most pro-be-nice-to-DPRK Government the South has had in quite a few years. I suspect the sanctions which result would also be even nastier than they are now. The RoK have played this hand quite well, I think.

circadian

Pepefrogok wrote: »

Do you think trump will keep his Nobel peace prize in the white house or will he display it at one of his many successful businesses?

Most likely his prison cell.

ECO_Mental

spacecoyote wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/971538152367251457?s=19

Some potentially interesting numbers there?

Is there nothing this cheap ass would pay for himself! I mean he is "supposedly" a billionaire. If I was a voter of his and I see my contributions going to pay off a porn star I would be mad as hell.

But listen this is just another in a VERY long line of scandals, misdemeanors and illegality that Trump and his gang are up. The beauty of this chaos is that there will be another major scandal this afternoon no doubt and this will be forgotten. (Probably not this one has legs I think), I am just praying that she has pictures of Trump on the bed like a walrus.

She must be getting massive offers off the tabloids for the story pictures videos etc (can you imagine it a Trump sex tape:(:o) sorry if ye puked up your coco pops....

Leroy42

Whatever happens in regard to the actual meeting between Kim and Trump, this is a very welcome development that there is even a chance for discussion. I have agreed with Trump on the idea, if not how he undertook it, and as Manic said for too long the West have tried to almost ignore the situation and wish it away.

I do see the potential for PR win for NK, and I have serious reservations that Trump will be able to be focused on a resolution rather than a photo op. His trip to China makes for worry, as he seemed easily manipulated and more focused on dinners and trips than getting anything substantial. I mean, its only what 6 months since his visit, and he is resorting to signing off on tariffs to try to force China's hand.

That is a clear acceptance that he totally failed to achieve anything with the visit. Why would we expect anything different from NK?

pixelburp

Only a fool would ignore the prospect of peace in North Korea, but the devil will be in the details; any deals will be thrashed out and discussed by diplomats and those within his travelling group, not Trump himself. So the obvious question there is: who will be going with him? Tillerson? McMaster? Ivanka and Jared FFS? IMO this is precisely the scenario where the various understaffed embassies and state department are going to scupper any real chance for peace. There are literal vacancies in the roles that might otherwise step forward in this visit.

Trumps notorious and well documented short attention span, and refusal to read can only potentially obstruct any attempts at coming to an agreement over terms (does anyone seriously believe Trump would have read the full Good Friday Agreement were he the US head of state back then??) He's a showman and craves the spotlight, typically delegated the actual business decisions to his executives, before swooping in and taking credit and/or throwing a grenade under the deal if it didn't meet his personal approval.

In fact, if you look back at the whole healthcare bill debacle, Trump was arguably a complete hinderance; a whining hurler on the ditch, who apparently refused to negotiate or talk to the various holdouts and swing voters, preferring instead to carp and criticise over Twitter. A better Republican president would have whipped the votes first time around.

There's a compelling narrative and belief that the non-conventional is worth a shot when diplomats and politicians fail; but the few times the outsider might take a successful alternative avenue doesn't always outweigh all those times in the past that same outsider f*cks up and is out of his/her depth. Donald Trump is a businessman, first and foremost and peacetalks - particularly those with an openly belligerent and hostile nation - should call for diplomats. They have their place.

Has there been much of a reaction from South Korea? That's the perspective I'm curious about in all this, 'cos they're the ones with the biggest price to pay if Trump truly fouls up.

Oafley Jones

The whole point of NK's nuclear programme is to gain influence and get them a seat at the big boys table. Now, they're getting to sit down with one of the most easily manipulated individuals on earth.

Peregrinus

Oafley Jones wrote: »

The whole point of NK's nuclear programme is to gain influence and get them a seat at the big boys table. Now, they're getting to sit down with one of the most easily manipulated individuals on earth.

Easily manipulated, but least reliable. There's not much advantage to being able to manipulate Trump to agree to X when, tomorrow, someone else will find it equally easy to manipulate him to agree to not-X.

everlast75

There will be no hope of anything coming of this visit - even if it does arrive.

Trump is an imbecile. I don't know how people are forgetting this.

IF he does go, he will be won over by all of the plaudits and spectacles that will be put on for him. He cannot negotiate anything. Any success so far has been a combination of family money, bluster and sheer luck. After he comes back, he will revert to type anyway (see multiple examples of him changing his mind within 24 hours on any topic).

I will be delighted to be proven wrong, but this guy has not exceeded ANY of my expectations, and believe me when I say, they were barely expectations at all.

pixelburp

pixelburp wrote: »

Only a fool would ignore the prospect of peace in North Korea, but the devil will be in the details; any deals will be thrashed out and discussed by diplomats and those within his travelling group, not Trump himself. So the obvious question there is: who will be going with him? Tillerson? McMaster? Ivanka and Jared FFS? IMO this is precisely the scenario where the various understaffed embassies and state department are going to scupper any real chance for peace. There are literal vacancies in the roles that might otherwise step forward in this visit.

Trumps notorious and well documented short attention span, and refusal to read can only potentially obstruct any attempts at coming to an agreement over terms (does anyone seriously believe Trump would have read the full Good Friday Agreement were he the US head of state back then??) He's a showman and craves the spotlight, typically delegated the actual business decisions to his executives, before swooping in and taking credit and/or throwing a grenade under the deal if it didn't meet his personal approval.

In fact, if you look back at the whole healthcare bill debacle, Trump was arguably a complete hinderance; a whining hurler on the ditch, who apparently refused to negotiate or talk to the various holdouts and swing voters, preferring instead to carp and criticise over Twitter. A better Republican president would have whipped the votes first time around.

There's a compelling narrative and belief that the non-conventional is worth a shot when diplomats and politicians fail; but the few times the outsider might take a successful alternative avenue doesn't always outweigh all those times in the past that same outsider f*cks up and is out of his/her depth. Donald Trump is a businessman, first and foremost and peacetalks - particularly those with an openly belligerent and hostile nation - should call for diplomats. They have their place.

Has there been much of a reaction from South Korea? That's the perspective I'm curious about in all this, 'cos they're the ones with the biggest price to pay if Trump truly fouls up.

I'd imagine Jared Kushner will be all over this. Sanctions could be dropped for investment in his 5th Avenue property.

Oafley Jones

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd imagine Jared Kushner will be all over this. Sanctions could be dropped for investment in his 5th Avenue property.

I read this and was immediately reminded of the Ryugyong Hotel. Future Trump Tower

Hande hoche!

Remember during 2016, some talking heads saying one could imagine Trump meeting Kim Jong Un. Turns out they might be correct.

circadian

I wouldn't be surprised if a deal for nuclear decommissioning is met only to be leveraged with enriching the DPRK leadership and Trump's cronies. It's entirely possible to see an opening of their economy to be flooded with companies who have Trump, Kushner or whoever else in their pocket and for the regime to change very little.

I can't see any deal of any kind being of any discernable benefit to the citizens of North Korea.

Zubeneschamali

People are pretending this is some new policy by NK heralding disarmament. Nonsense.

They invited Bill Clinton, he didn't go. Bush declared them an Axis of Evil, and then reversed himself. Didn't help.
Obama declined to meet them because he did not believe they would meet his preconditions on denuclearization.

Now Trump agrees without preconditions - the NK leadership are laughing, a 20 year effort to get the Americans to the table has succeeded.

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People are pretending this is some new policy by NK heralding disarmament. Nonsense.

They invited Bill Clinton, he didn't go. Bush declared them an Axis of Evil, and then reversed himself. Didn't help.
Obama declined to meet them because he did not believe they would meet his preconditions on denuclearization.

Now Trump agrees without preconditions - the NK leadership are laughing, a 20 year effort to get the Americans to the table has succeeded.

Yeah, we're all very aware that they finally have nukes.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, we're all very aware that they finally have nukes.

They've had nukes for years, if anything their increased rocket capabilities should make preconditions a no brainer

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, we're all very aware that they finally have nukes.

And since it is working, why the Hell would they give them up?

They'll send Trump home with a spanked bottom (which, by Ms. Stormy Daniels accounts, he will enjoy).

You guys are right. He should have just said no to the meeting. That would have made you happy, I'm sure. You definitely wouldn't be complaining about it.

Pepefrogok

Yip, other presidents were weak and allowed NK to become a nuclear power on their watch, now trump the deal maker has to step in. I always knew he would be great with things like the economy, infrastructure, building up the military and sorting immigration etc but it blows my mind that it could well be under his watch that things like DACA, affordable health care and peace in Korea are sorted! What Next? Sort out Palestine? The entire middle East? Of course with the establishment and majority of media being against him some of the easily influenced will always hate him but trump 2020 is a done deal at this rate!

everlast75

Pepefrogok wrote: »

Yip, other presidents were weak and allowed NK to become a nuclear power on their watch, now trump the deal maker has to step in. I always knew he would be great with things like the economy, infrastructure, building up the military and sorting immigration etc but it blows my mind that it could well be under his watch that things like DACA, affordable health care and peace in Korea are sorted! What Next? Sort out Palestine? The entire middle East? Of course with the establishment and majority of media being against him some of the easily influenced will always hate him but trump 2020 is a done deal at this rate!

Sorry - I had to stop reading after this.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

You guys are right. He should have just said no to the meeting. That would have made you happy, I'm sure. You definitely wouldn't be complaining about it.

If Obama had agreed to talks without preconditions, the Republicans would be impeaching him the following day as a traitor.