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Leo is the new king of Ireland.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    I might become a Green voter. I like the cut of this man''s jib....



    Nice to see Ryan call Varadkar out. Exactly what myself and many others have been saying. Well done Greens.

    Is it the environmental agenda or 'anti-establishment' bit you're drawn by?

    Environmentalism isn't popular in a lot of places because it involves having to pay for it.

    The corporation tax issue is something every other country would like us to address because technically we're taking in a lot more than we're owed, so if we actually taxed more we'd get less.

    Morally excellent proposals but who actually wants to pay for them?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭recedite


    If we take this passage..
    The spin unit is weaving its way into the heart of Government, training civil servants, helping set up a new department, cajoling reluctant department bosses into cooperating and even taking over parliamentary duties. Emails also show the SCU helped oversee an event in the Taoiseach’s own constituency.

    Documents show how the SCU is stretching its reach right into the nerve centre of departments and government decision-making, at very senior levels.

    The unit, led by marketing guru John Concannon, was even asked to participate in the controversial public services card project amid the initiative receiving “an amount of public attention”.

    All this feeds into opposition concerns and claims that the €5m unit has politicised elements of the civil service, blurring the lines between the elected and permanent government.
    it describes the SCU improving interdepartmental co-ordination and effectiveness. Not promoting the FG party.

    We should remember here that "the government" is defined as the 7-15 ministers elected by the Dail to govern the country. Each minister takes control of a government department. There are no lines to be blurred; the civil servants in those departments are required to implement the policies directed to them by those ministers. The civil servants can't carry on as if they are somehow "independent" of govt. There is no "permanent government". That article makes a fundamental mistake in imagining that there is one.

    The blurry line that we should be keeping an eye on is between what is good for the country, and what is only good for the FG party. So if it is used to promote FG people, or if it wastes an excessive amount of the taxpayers money on "spin", or if it uses dishonest marketing tactics such as "advertorials" it should be called out for any of those things.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Nitrogan wrote: »
    Is it the environmental agenda or 'anti-establishment' bit you're drawn by?

    Environmentalism isn't popular in a lot of places because it involves having to pay for it.

    The corporation tax issue is something every other country would like us to address because technically we're taking in a lot more than we're owed, so if we actually taxed more we'd get less.

    Morally excellent proposals but who actually wants to pay for them?

    Anti-establishment? It's about how they feel the country should be governed. A better fairer 'establishment'.
    Sorry Fne Gael have squandered millions upon millions of tax monies. A bit late in the day to cite financial prudence. But that's the point you've missed, it's about allocation of resources and tax monies not 'anti' anything.
    I agree with what he said. Fine Gael need stop pandering to big business and govern in the best interest of all the people.
    The SCU is a mild example of FG arrogance and self entitlement. They spun future plan's to promote FG politicians with public money.
    Ryan hit the nail on the head.
    The call on behalf of trump is FG style in a nutshell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Ireland is one the best places to live in the world.

    It’s not perfect but we’re doing very well considering our size and resources. We have a society which provides free health care, free education and welfare for people who need it.

    But I’ve noticed in recent years fringe political groups painting a picture of a third world despotic banana republic. It’s the same kind of aggressive insidious rhetoric spouted by UKIP and the Trump movement in the US.

    The government has to at least make it’s case for what is good here, and if they’re wrong the press is free to call them up on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,808 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Free health care and education my ass. Accomodation for students almost €8k this year. Record number of people on trollies. Don't even mention the housing crisis.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Free health care and education my ass. Accomodation for students almost €8k this year. Record number of people on trollies. Don't even mention the housing crisis.

    Not perfect but these are First World problems which a generation ago would have seemed luxurious.

    Students live at home don't they?

    There are empty houses in ghost estates all over rural Ireland with no one for local councils to fill them with. :confused:

    Patients on trollies is a serious issue though and shouldn't be thrown in with the above. It will only get worse as the population ages, we're just going to have to pay more tax to fund it.

    Less avocado toast equals more hospital beds maybe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,808 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Nitrogan wrote: »
    Not perfect but these are First World problems which a generation ago would have seemed luxurious.

    Students live at home don't they?

    There are empty houses in ghost estates all over rural Ireland with no one for local councils to fill them with. :confused:

    Patients on trollies is a serious issue though and shouldn't be thrown in with the above. It will only get worse as the population ages, we're just going to have to pay more tax to fund it.

    Less avocado toast equals more hospital beds maybe.

    Students live at home???
    Speaks volumes for your awareness.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Students live at home???
    Speaks volumes for your awareness.


    Most students could live at home.

    http://hea.ie/assets/uploads/2018/02/HEA-Institutional-Profiles-201415-A.pdf

    According to the HEA, 68% of university students came from the county the university is in or neighbouring counties. Adding 15% international students gives you 83%.

    For IoTs, the figure is 79%. Adding 6% international students gives you 85%.

    Them's the facts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Students live at home???
    Speaks volumes for your awareness.

    I'm becoming more aware now.

    What factors would students like yourself have to consider when filling out a CAO application?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Interesting that after all the fuss this thread has generated among posters, that support for FG continues to remain above 30%.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0324/949856-opinion-poll/


    It's a RedC poll which along with MRBI tend to be the most accurate.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    I'm a bit pissed off now.

    If I knew I was entitled to cheap student accomodation I'd have made different choices.

    More fool me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Interesting that after all the fuss this thread has generated among posters, that support for FG continues to remain above 30%.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0324/949856-opinion-poll/


    It's a RedC poll which along with MRBI tend to be the most accurate.

    The gap has more to do with FF's failure (down a whooping 5 points) than anything else.

    i wouldn't have expected Leo's appalling gaff to have affected those who already support him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The gap has more to do with FF's failure (down a whooping 5 points) than anything else.

    i wouldn't have expected Leo's appalling gaff to have affected those who already support him.

    Individual polls are subject to too much error. However, trends repeated across polls are interesting.

    For the last six months or so, FG have managed to get above 30% and stay there. That changes the political landscape in a number of ways:

    (1) FF can only get into government with the support of SF as they are very unlikely to finish ahead of FG and mathematically no other option adds up

    (2) If FG get to 35%, with the splintering of the vote, on a good day, if Leo is getting them transfers, they could get 40-43% of the seats, meaning there is a variety of options. Working with the Greens, Labour or SDs and a couple of independents, they could have a majority.

    (3) FG and SF will most definitely have a majority between them come election time. Is Mary-Lou aware of this, and is this the reason she is being so nice to Leo on the North?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Individual polls are subject to too much error. However, trends repeated across polls are interesting.

    For the last six months or so, FG have managed to get above 30% and stay there. That changes the political landscape in a number of ways:

    (1) FF can only get into government with the support of SF as they are very unlikely to finish ahead of FG and mathematically no other option adds up

    (2) If FG get to 35%, with the splintering of the vote, on a good day, if Leo is getting them transfers, they could get 40-43% of the seats, meaning there is a variety of options. Working with the Greens, Labour or SDs and a couple of independents, they could have a majority.

    (3) FG and SF will most definitely have a majority between them come election time. Is Mary-Lou aware of this, and is this the reason she is being so nice to Leo on the North?

    FG's arrogance cost them at the last election. They haven't seemed to learn anything from that and Leo's tenure has started out with profound arrogance if the US and his reaction to the vote to rid the country of the SCU, is anything to go by.

    A campaign will once again be the real test.


  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    FG's arrogance cost them at the last election. They haven't seemed to learn anything from that and Leo's tenure has started out with profound arrogance if the US and his reaction to the vote to rid the country of the SCU, is anything to go by.

    A campaign will once again be the real test.

    Aren't FG in government now? :confused:

    More people want FG, FF or even Labour in government by some distance to the extremist Alt-left/Alt-right options in Irish politics.

    Arrogance would be assuming that not being one of the above is enough to earn election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nitrogan wrote: »
    Aren't FG in government now? :confused:

    More people want FG, FF or even Labour in government by some distance to the extremist Alt-left/Alt-right options in Irish politics.

    Arrogance would be assuming that not being one of the above is enough to earn election.

    That wasn't the point I was making.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    FG's arrogance cost them at the last election. They haven't seemed to learn anything from that and Leo's tenure has started out with profound arrogance if the US and his reaction to the vote to rid the country of the SCU, is anything to go by.

    A campaign will once again be the real test.

    the latest poll suggests he's not costing them anything. Currently, according to Red C, they're running 9 points ahead of Fianna Fáil which represents the biggest lead for Varadkar et al in a Red C poll since just before the 2016 General Election.

    I guess what's true of the fictional President Bartlet is true of the actual Taoiseach.....
    .....they're irreversibly convinced that he's arrogant....now he can be.' If your guy is seen that way you might as well knock some bodies down with it
    .

    Looks like Leo is maintaining that position ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    I'd agree with that last post.

    The opposition are desperate to paint Leo as a posh Tory boy / arrogant persona and are spending political capital on minor side issues like the SCU, but the public don't seem too swayed by it.

    The current confidence and supply arrangement expires later this year and it's very doubtful that FF will agree to an extension.
    If FF's current weak polling numbers persist, I can see FG calling a new election straight after the budget is passed.

    FF / SF government anyone?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    Phoebas wrote: »
    I'd agree with that last post.

    The opposition are desperate to paint Leo as a posh Tory boy / arrogant persona and are spending political capital on minor side issues like the SCU, but the public don't seem too swayed by it.

    The current confidence and supply arrangement expires later this year and it's very doubtful that FF will agree to an extension.
    If FF's current weak polling numbers persist, I can see FG calling a new election straight after the budget is passed.

    FF / SF government anyone?

    Indeed - the likes of SF are great pulling stunts but ultimately they end up expending useful Dail time generating headlines instead of any kind of political heat. Do people really care about the SCU or whether or not Varadkar exaggerated his involvement in a planning matter? They're great stories but not exactly the issues people will decide whether or not to vote on.

    I also think the Left do a great job as painting Varadkar as our very own Tory boy, but then forget that it also means painting him as someone who has a distinct preference for lower taxation!!! Now that's a vote winner :D

    FF/SF government - I don't think they'll get the numbers, plus I think FF won't be enamoured by the idea as it'll cost them dearly. You just never know what stink is going to rise up from the SF cess pit and the last thing they'll want to be is proxy apologists for any putative coalition partners.

    I also think FF might tacitly agree to informally extending the C&S agreement on a rolling, in principle basis (commit to it without putting a time limit on the commitment). If they don't and they are perceived as having caused any subsequent GE then they'll pay a further price for that.

    Saying that, if the 'right' scandal comes along after the budget I don't doubt they'll grab it with both hands and pull the plug at the earliest opportunity if it gives them a chance to credibly lay any blame at FG's door.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    Jawgap wrote: »
    I also think FF might tacitly agree to informally extending the C&S agreement on a rolling, in principle basis (commit to it without putting a time limit on the commitment). If they don't and they are perceived as having caused any subsequent GE then they'll pay a further price for that.

    Saying that, if the 'right' scandal comes along after the budget I don't doubt they'll grab it with both hands and pull the plug at the earliest opportunity if it gives them a chance to credibly lay any blame at FG's door.
    I agree that the most FF will do is agree to extend on an informal basis, while waiting for the opportune moment to pull the plug.

    That's why I think we'll have an early election. If FGs numbers are still looking strong why would they leave it up to FF? They'd be better off publically demanding a formal extension and when they don't get it, go to the country off the back of what is likely to be the biggest 'giveaway' budget in years.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    Phoebas wrote: »
    I agree that the most FF will do is agree to extend on an informal basis, while waiting for the opportune moment to pull the plug.

    That's why I think we'll have an early election. If FGs numbers are still looking strong why would they leave it up to FF? They'd be better off publically demanding a formal extension and when they don't get it, go to the country off the back of what is likely to be the biggest 'giveaway' budget in years.

    I think the only thing that would stop Varadkar is the fact that Irish electorates like punishing people who make them vote!!!

    I think you're right, though, a decent giveaway budget this year - then if he ekes out another year to another giveaway budget before he goes for it.

    Equally, they might decide to go for it in the budget this year - big, FF 1977 style budget :D - then go to the country saying we need to have our election now to ensure a stable government through Brexit - and with the way SF and the DUP have been having pops at Varadkar there's plenty of material there for him to demonstrate that he's the safe pair of hands needed to navigate us through Brexit ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jawgap wrote: »
    I think the only thing that would stop Varadkar is the fact that Irish electorates like punishing people who make them vote!!!

    I think you're right, though, a decent giveaway budget this year - then if he ekes out another year to another giveaway budget before he goes for it.

    Equally, they might decide to go for it in the budget this year - big, FF 1977 style budget :D - then go to the country saying we need to have our election now to ensure a stable government through Brexit - and with the way SF and the DUP have been having pops at Varadkar there's plenty of material there for him to demonstrate that he's the safe pair of hands needed to navigate us through Brexit ;)

    Who knows what might be being held for an election campaign. What this poll is missing is what they missed with Enda, the slow build of the perception of arrogance.

    Ultimately that is the test, Enda failed it from a position of similar strength.

    I think they will have to do the same with Leo as they did with Enda, withdraw him from public appearances and interaction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    ...the slow build of the perception of arrogance....

    That does appear to be the opposition election strategy.

    Not a great substitute for actual politics imho, but each to their own.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    So in the one hand you describe Varadkar as having
    .....started out with profound arrogance

    Now,
    Who knows what might be being held for an election campaign. What this poll is missing is what they missed with Enda, the slow build of the perception of arrogance.

    Ultimately that is the test, Enda failed it from a position of similar strength.

    I think they will have to do the same with Leo as they did with Enda, withdraw him from public appearances and interaction.

    I mean, I don't disagree that he's arrogant (or at the very least he comes across as arrogant) but I don't think it's nearly the handicap that others are suggesting it is.

    ......and yes, I'm sure Kenny as FG's longest serving Taoiseach who delivered 2 terms in office and left, eventually, on his own terms feels a "failure" :D

    Now, people might rabbit on about achievements or lack thereof by the acme of skill in a party leader is getting into then keeping power, so Kenny as a "failure" is just laughable. Even for all his limitations he still managed to get back in ;) - kind of says more about his opponents than him, that he was preferred over them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Phoebas wrote: »
    That does appear to be the opposition election strategy.

    Not a great substitute for actual politics imho, but each to their own.

    The SCU and the US trip are self inflicted imo.

    The 'actual politics' will be reviewed in an election campaign and the failure there will be writ large.
    Not sure FF have the ability to capitalise on that, we shall see in the real test which will inevitably arrive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jawgap wrote: »
    So in the one hand you describe Varadkar as having



    Now,



    I mean, I don't disagree that he's arrogant (or at the very least he comes across as arrogant) but I don't think it's nearly the handicap that others are suggesting it is.

    ......and yes, I'm sure Kenny as FG's longest serving Taoiseach who delivered 2 terms in office and left, eventually, on his own terms feels a "failure" :D

    Now, people might rabbit on about achievements or lack thereof by the acme of skill in a party leader is getting into then keeping power, so Kenny as a "failure" is just laughable. Even for all his limitations he still managed to get back in ;) - kind of says more about his opponents than him, that he was preferred over them.

    Kenny dismally failed to deliver the result the 'polls' you are waving about, suggested.

    That was the point.

    If FG could not deliver two terms with the state FF was in, they may as well have given up.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    Kenny dismally failed to deliver the result the 'polls' you are waving about, suggested.

    That was the point.

    If FG could not deliver two terms with the state FF was in, they may as well have given up.

    So an arrogant Toryboy Taoiseach has followed a failure of a Taoiseach......during a period of grinding austerity when we've loaded ourselves with debt.......and after all that the party in question is still the largest in the state by some measure and still in power?

    I'd say if that's arrogance and failure the other parties can't wait to get a piece of it ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jawgap wrote: »
    So an arrogant Toryboy Taoiseach has followed a failure of a Taoiseach......during a period of grinding austerity when we've loaded ourselves with debt.......and after all that the party in question is still the largest in the state by some measure and still in power?

    I'd say if that's arrogance and failure the other parties can't wait to get a piece of it ;)

    I never mentioned anything about a 'Toryboy.'

    FG's inability to deliver a majority government during the weakest period of FF's existence says something here.

    They can only stay in government with the consent of FF, which also says something.

    There are a number of ways of seeing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Jawgap


    I never mentioned anything about a 'Toryboy.'

    FG's inability to deliver a majority government during the weakest period of FF's existence says something here.

    They can only stay in government with the consent of FF, which also says something.

    There are a number of ways of seeing.

    Well actually it doesn't because it's been more than a generation since single party government has been the norm in Ireland......so it really doesn't say anything about FG (or FF) or Varadkar.

    What is intriguing is the way the lesser parties (SF, LAB, the Greens) were not able to capitalise on the economic situation to sell a better idea of how things should be dealt with.

    Even at the height of "Gilmore for Taoiseach" "SF rockstar finance ministers" when FG and FF looked vulnerable it turns out that they weren't actually as vulnerable as the polls made out.

    Now, today, even less so. Varadkar, for all his recent mis-steps and perceived arrogance, still represents a better bet than anything offered by the other parties (with the possible exception of Martin)......and he still has to get the inevitable bump from a successful referendum.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,435 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jawgap wrote: »
    Well actually it doesn't because it's been more than a generation since single party government has been the norm in Ireland......so it really doesn't say anything about FG (or FF) or Varadkar.

    What is intriguing is the way the lesser parties (SF, LAB, the Greens) were not able to capitalise on the economic situation to sell a better idea of how things should be dealt with.

    Even at the height of "Gilmore for Taoiseach" "SF rockstar finance ministers" when FG and FF looked vulnerable it turns out that they weren't actually as vulnerable as the polls made out.

    Effectively the pressure from the opposition has merged FF and FG.
    And they cannot untangle themselves at election.
    That is the significant change, they fall in the combined vote these two have gotten.
    Now, today, even less so. Varadkar, for all his recent mis-steps and perceived arrogance, still represents a better bet than anything offered by the other parties (with the possible exception of Martin)......and he still has to get the inevitable bump from a successful referendum.

    That sounds like a party political broadcast tbh.

    While I support the Repeal the 8th campaign, I am increasingly worried that it will be very close or might even fail.


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