Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Effectively the pressure from the opposition has merged FF and FG.
And they cannot untangle themselves at election.
That is the significant change, they fall in the combined vote these two have gotten.


That sounds like a party political broadcast tbh.

While I support the Repeal the 8th campaign, I am increasingly worried that it will be very close or might even fail.

no, it hasn't really but that's just a narrative the noisy 'kids' want to put about in the hope that people are thick enough to believe that FF/FG don't offer any real choice and that they are the "real" choice.......the Irish electorate can be silly but they are not thick and the minor parties but we better of appreciating that fact.

And while it may sound like a party political broadcast (to you) you can bet your money that when the referendum succeeds Varadkar and FG will do several victory laps and cite it as vindication of their approach. FF will try try and scoop up some credit, but their divisions on the 12 week issue will quickly come to the fore.

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

no, it hasn't really but that's just a narrative the noisy 'kids' want to put about in the hope that people are thick enough to believe that FF/FG don't offer any real choice and that they are the "real" choice.......the Irish electorate can be silly but they are not thick and the minor parties but we better of appreciating that fact.

And while it may sound like a party political broadcast (to you) you can bet your money that when the referendum succeeds Varadkar and FG will do several victory laps and cite it as vindication of their approach. FF will try try and scoop up some credit, but their divisions on the 12 week issue will quickly come to the fore.

I don't know why you would object to the term 'effectively merged' or see it as a sinister 'narrative' from somebody else.
They are running the country together.

I think anyone doing 'victory laps' over the results of the referendum might do themselves damage among those who will nervously vote for change, and that cohort of voters probably belong mostly to FG.

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't know why you would object to the term 'effectively merged' or see it as a sinister 'narrative' from somebody else.
They are running the country together.

I think anyone doing 'victory laps' over the results of the referendum might do themselves damage among those who will nervously vote for change, and that cohort of voters probably belong mostly to FG.

Ok, clearly I was speaking figuratively.......Varadkar isn't going to mention the word "victory" - there may well be talk of their approach being correct, or moving on etc but the whole subtext will be about his government delivering the refendum result before moving on to the difficult task of legislating.

I'd expect FG to be the least affected by the legislative process.......FF and some of the minor parties have more issues there that will come to the fore through the autumn legislative session.

Varadkar may well be a "lucky general" in that he'll have a largely unified party behind him, in comparison to FF, for the next few months.

Edward M

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I never mentioned anything about a 'Toryboy.'

FG's inability to deliver a majority government during the weakest period of FF's existence says something here.

They can only stay in government with the consent of FF, which also says something.

There are a number of ways of seeing.

They are in govt because of the weakness of everybody else.
FF are deeply divided by the abortion debate, you could see a heave here if the repeal vote fails, or even if it wins.
The abortion up to 12 week issue is going to split them further if repeal passes.
Now Leo is riding high, his party is backing his stance at every turn, FF are split over it, SF suspended one and one didn't even turn up for the vote, it saved the an embarrassing other suspension.
They won't reveal their stance on the 12 week issue until they meet after the vote, great leadership from a leading political party.

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

Ok, clearly I was speaking figuratively.......Varadkar isn't going to mention the word "victory" - there may well be talk of their approach being correct, or moving on etc but the whole subtext will be about his government delivering the refendum result before moving on to the difficult task of legislating.

I'd expect FG to be the least affected by the legislative process.......FF and some of the minor parties have more issues there that will come to the fore through the autumn legislative session.

Varadkar may well be a "lucky general" in that he'll have a largely unified party behind him, in comparison to FF, for the next few months.

As I said, I think the referendum will be closer than thought. If it is then there will be little bounce to be gotten and it may spark recriminations within FG.

Brexit is other major stumbling block for Leo.
We saw him get a big bounce from the December talks.
If he fails to deliver what was portrayed as 'guaranteed', that bounce could rebound spectacularly.

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As I said, I think the referendum will be closer than thought. If it is then there will be little bounce to be gotten and it may spark recriminations within FG.

Brexit is other major stumbling block for Leo.
We saw him get a big bounce from the December talks.
If he fails to deliver what was portrayed as 'guaranteed', that bounce could rebound spectacularly.

It doesn't really matter how close it might be....if it passes.

As for Brexit......Varadkar is playing an absolute blinder.......if SF and the DUP are having a go at you (not to mention some high profile Brits) then you're on a winner - if the SCU couldn't have arranged that kind of press.

Jawgap

Edward M wrote: »

They are in govt because of the weakness of everybody else.
FF are deeply divided by the abortion debate, you could see a heave here if the repeal vote fails, or even if it wins.
The abortion up to 12 week issue is going to split them further if repeal passes.
Now Leo is riding high, his party is backing his stance at every turn, FF are split over it, SF suspended one and one didn't even turn up for the vote, it saved the an embarrassing other suspension.
They won't reveal their stance on the 12 week issue until they meet after the vote, great leadership from a leading political party.

There's certainly an impression the other parties are flailing about whereas FG, in comparison, looked a lot more organised or at least not as obviously fractured as the others.

billy few mates

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who knows what might be being held for an election campaign. What this poll is missing is what they missed with Enda, the slow build of the perception of arrogance.

Ultimately that is the test, Enda failed it from a position of similar strength.

I think they will have to do the same with Leo as they did with Enda, withdraw him from public appearances and interaction.

Why would SF be calling for Leo to withdraw from “public appearances and interaction...?”
If anything his ability to ‘work the room’ whenever he gets on his feet or is asked a question in an interview is one of his strong points. He always appears quite direct and we’ll informed and is well able to deal with the hecklers and fishwives as we’ve seen time and again, unless this is the reason you’re calling for it...?

Even these two seemed impressed with him on one of his recent “interactions”...
https://www.independent.ie/videos/irish-news/video-gerry-adams-and-mary-lou-mcdonald-give-taoiseach-standing-ovation-36703724.html#play

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

It doesn't really matter how close it might be....if it passes.

As for Brexit......Varadkar is playing an absolute blinder.......if SF and the DUP are having a go at you (not to mention some high profile Brits) then you're on a winner - if the SCU couldn't have arranged that kind of press.

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

Turns out they aren't and the talk is now shifting to Ireland having lost ground and on the horizon is the possibility that Leo may have been spectacular outplayed by the British.

FG TD's are increasingly having to spin what was once 'guaranteed' to now be 'we will have to see what happens in October, this was always going to be difficult...etc etc.'

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

Turns out they aren't and the talk is now shifting to Ireland having lost ground and on the horizon is the possibility that Leo may have been spectacular outplayed by the British.

FG TD's are increasingly having to spin what was once 'guaranteed' to now be 'we will have to see what happens in October, this was always going to be difficult...etc etc.'

Gosh, I know the other parties need to find something to undermine Varadkar, but when you see him knobbing with the knobs in Berlin, Paris and Brussels and hear the type of unequivocal endorsements he's getting from them it's difficult not to conclude he's playing a blinder.

......and saying "we'll have to see....." is not spin, it's just prudence......if a week is a long time in politics, six months is several eternities, not creating hostages to fortune is just clever, it's not spin.

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

Gosh, I know the other parties need to find something to undermine Varadkar, but when you see him knobbing with the knobs in Berlin, Paris and Brussels and hear the type of unequivocal endorsements he's getting from them it's difficult not to conclude he's playing a blinder.

......and saying "we'll have to see....." is not spin, it's just prudence......if a week is a long time in politics, six months is several eternities, not creating hostages to fortune is just clever, it's not spin.

'Prudence' you say?

He said the joint commitment by the EU and Britain to the retention of a free-flowing border between Ireland and the UK post-Brexit is "rock solid and cast iron".

Mr Varadkar described assurances outlined in the agreed text as "politically bulletproof".

To me it looks like it will be very easy to damage him when he used words like 'bulletproof' to gain his bounce.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1208/925856-deal/


All of that will look very very hollow if he gets out maneuvered, the political punches will rain in, and rightly so.

James Brown

Nitrogan wrote: »

Ireland is one the best places to live in the world.

It’s not perfect but we’re doing very well considering our size and resources. We have a society which provides free health care, free education and welfare for people who need it.

But I’ve noticed in recent years fringe political groups painting a picture of a third world despotic banana republic. It’s the same kind of aggressive insidious rhetoric spouted by UKIP and the Trump movement in the US.

The government has to at least make it’s case for what is good here, and if they’re wrong the press is free to call them up on it.

The picture you are trying to paint is false and ill informed . In 2010 Fine Gael campaigned on what you would call an 'anti-establishment' agenda. They promised to change the way we do business amongst other things. They were selling themselves as a broad change to the then establishment. Of course we know now that was baloney.
Your spin on recent politics falls short considering your knowledge doesn't go back more than 15 to 20 years. How can you have a solid grasp of political trends in such a short time frame? I say this because you never heard of e-voting machines which was a national issue for many years (including those were councillor and party friends were paid handsomely to store them).
The press, although often bias one way or the other depending on the outlet, has a responsibility to shine a light on the arrogance and waste of Fine Gael. Your idea that they should be left to their own devices is dangerous and naive, unless of course you are simply a FG supporter where self interest is what matters and therefore the party is beyond reproach, despite record breaking and ever worsening crisis that doesn't seem to have pierced your tory bubble.
These fringe groups your party waves like a stick are generally on 2 or 3% while FG sit in power propped up by Fianna Fail, a party of ill repute. How you can keep a straight face is beyond me.
Eamon Ryan summed Varadkar and Fine Gael up perfectly. Or is Ryan an ISIS member who wants something for nothing?

Jawgap

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Prudence' you say?



To me it looks like it will be very easy to damage him when he used words like 'bulletproof' to gain his bounce.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1208/925856-deal/


All of that will look very very hollow if he gets out maneuvered, the political punches will rain in, and rightly so.

There's a lot of "ifs" in all your posts......and you know what they say "if ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no need for tinkers" - fact remains, Varadkar is Taoiseach, he's not going anywhere any time soon and his leadership, flawed as it may be, is made to look all the more majesterial by the way FF and the lesser parties are behaving.


Anyway.......that's me done. 20,000 posts and a new job in 2 weeks that kind of means a bit of a social media cleanse is required mean The Artist Formerly Known as Jawgap" is being consigned to the dustbin of history.

So long, auf wiedersehen, goodbye......thou shalt hear from Jawgap no more.....

FrancieBrady

Jawgap wrote: »

There's a lot of "ifs" in all your posts......and you know what they say "if ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no need for tinkers" - fact remains, Varadkar is Taoiseach, he's not going anywhere any time soon and his leadership, flawed as it may be, is made to look all the more majesterial by the way FF and the lesser parties are behaving.


Anyway.......that's me done. 20,000 posts and a new job in 2 weeks that kind of means a bit of a social media cleanse is required mean The Artist Formerly Known as Jawgap" is being consigned to the dustbin of history.

So long, auf wiedersehen, goodbye......thou shalt hear from Jawgap no more.....

An 'opinion poll' and trumpeting it's results, is the very definition of 'if'.

Best of luck in the new job.

Phoebas

Matt Barrett wrote: »

In 2010 Fine Gael campaigned on what you would call an 'anti-establishment' agenda.

FG played the anti-establishment card? :eek: I thought i'd seen it all, but boards is the gift that keeps giving.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Your spin on recent politics ...

I did have a chuckle at that considering the above.

Royal Legend

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

Turns out they aren't and the talk is now shifting to Ireland having lost ground and on the horizon is the possibility that Leo may have been spectacular outplayed by the British.

FG TD's are increasingly having to spin what was once 'guaranteed' to now be 'we will have to see what happens in October, this was always going to be difficult...etc etc.'

Not sure that you can blame him for this, a leader needs to exude confidence which i think he did in the case, would have expected any leader of our country to do the same (although pretty sure Enda would not have made any similar statement as he then would have to follow it up)

Can't help thinking of the Chris Rock analogy in relation to Varadker, Bush was so bad that the Americans elected a black man :eek: Trump is so bad now we can expect Jesus next.

James Brown

Phoebas wrote: »

FG played the anti-establishment card? :eek: I thought i'd seen it all, but boards is the gift that keeps giving.

I did have a chuckle at that considering the above.

Your spin is wrong.
The poster I was responding to sees anti government party as anti establishment. If you read beyond looking for a little dig you'd get that. The problem isn't political views it's self appointed Ill informed jesters.

FrancieBrady

Royal Legend wrote: »

Not sure that you can blame him for this, a leader needs to exude confidence which i think he did in the case, would have expected any leader of our country to do the same (although pretty sure Enda would not have made any similar statement as he then would have to follow it up)

He will stand accused of being weak and naive.
He used up a good few 'naive' and inexperienced brownie points in the US gaff.

I don't think I know one person who will not be extremely angry if we get shafted on the border and that anger will find an outlet.

Coveney and Varadkar have a big game to play and they better be up to it. Brexit and a hard border threatens to do more damage than the financial crash. And look who the electorate took their anger out on after that, even though FG were culpable in the creation of the bubble.

Edward M

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He will stand accused of being weak and naive.
He used up a good few 'naive' and inexperienced brownie points in the US gaff.

I don't think I know one person who will not be extremely angry if we get shafted on the border and that anger will find an outlet.

Coveney and Varadkar have a big game to play and they better be up to it. Brexit and a hard border threatens to do more damage than the financial crash. And look who the electorate took their anger out on after that, even though FG were culpable in the creation of the bubble.

They're no getting much help north of the border are they?

corks finest

The emperor's got no clothes on

FrancieBrady

Edward M wrote: »

They're no getting much help north of the border are they?

Well somebody convinced them to drop their objection to special status for northern Ireland.

Phoebas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well somebody convinced them to drop their objection to special status for northern Ireland.

Even when the government are doing what you want, you can't bring yourself to acknowledge their efforts.
Far from objecting to special status, the government have been demanding it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0622/884832-coveney-ireland-brexit/

FrancieBrady

Phoebas wrote: »

Even when the government are doing what you want, you can't bring yourself to acknowledge their efforts.
Far from objecting to special status, the government have been demanding it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0622/884832-coveney-ireland-brexit/

FrancieBrady wrote:

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

They previously were against special status. I think it was SF who convinced them that was wrong.

Can you give them credit for that? Or did the change come out of the ether?

billy few mates

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I don't think I know one person who will not be extremely angry if we get shafted on the border and that anger will find an outlet.

As good a reason as any not to get involved in any of the forums where these matters are being discussed I suppose, it could be a real vote loser next time round. Far safer to leave something as contentious as this to the Brits and Leo then we can blame them if it all goes wrong...

FrancieBrady

billy few mates wrote: »

As good a reason as any not to get involved in any of the forums where these matters are being discussed I suppose, it could be a real vote loser next time round. Far safer to leave something as contentious as this to the Brits and Leo then we can blame them if it all goes wrong...

It is a negotiation between the sovereign governments involved. Political parties and the heads of devolved governments are not at the table.

I am in no doubt about what any political party's position is on Brexit though.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

i wouldn't have expected Leo's appalling gaff to have affected those who already support him.

Quite a turn around. Does he have to resign yet?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Quite a turn around. Does he have to resign yet?

If he did something illegal he was always going to have to resign.
Being chuffed that the US president thinks you did a criminal favour for him is cringeworthy but not illegal.

markodaly

Phoebas wrote: »

FF / SF government anyone?

Looking at the numbers now, they will still need more TD's to get a majority.

How would that work, a FF and SF coalition would be a sight to behold for a number of reason and many of the SF core vote would leave them in droves as they are propping up a FF right wing government.

Add the above situation with a host of indo's? Would it least a year?

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If he did something illegal he was always going to have to resign.
Being chuffed that the US president thinks you did a criminal favour for him is cringeworthy but not illegal.

Has he explained it in the Dail yet?
You are still peddling the line that Leo thinks he did something illegal?

I suppose if that is all people have, perceived thought crimes, then no wonder Leo and FG are riding on a high into another government sooner rather than later.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If he did something illegal he was always going to have to resign.
Being chuffed that the US president thinks you did a criminal favour for him is cringeworthy but not illegal.

So, he did nothing wrong. We did tell you that.