Leo is the new king of Ireland.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If FG could not deliver two terms with the state FF was in, they may as well have given up.

This works both ways.

If the alternative left wing alphabet soup of parties could not get even near power during the biggest crash and economic crisis is the history of the state, they may as well give up right now, considering we are well on the road to recovery with more people working in the state ever before.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

So, he did nothing wrong. We did tell you that.

I wouldn't be so sure it is all over yet.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

This works both ways.

If the alternative left wing alphabet soup of parties could not get even near power during the biggest crash and economic crisis is the history of the state, they may as well give up right now, considering we are well on the road to recovery with more people working in the state ever before.

Fg and FF have practically merged to block other parties out and to keep SF out of the official opposition role.
That will only work for a while.
And all the while their combined vote is falling. Politics is changing in Ireland at long last.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG's inability to deliver a majority government during the weakest period of FF's existence says something here.

There has not been a majority government in Ireland since the 1977 election. Why do you think we could turn back the clock on a change that has been on us for 40 years?

However, FG were really really close to this majority government.
The main reason it didn't happen? Labour lost their nerve during the last week of the election. They went from 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' to not even being in government, so they promised the earth, moon and stars to the electorate, promises they knew they could not keep. The end result, getting into government but losing 26 seats in the next GE.

Anyway, majority governments are no more so its stupid to talk of them or hold them up as some barometer of success.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fg and FF have practically merged to block other parties out and to keep SF out of the official opposition role.
That will only work for a while.
And all the while their combined vote is falling. Politics is changing in Ireland at long last.

Likewise, SF harping on going into government only as the main party is a failing strategy. They ran away form government last time out. The polls show them pretty much as is even with Mary Lou not at the helm.

The centre is holding but they still represent over 60% of the total, while the 40% are hopelessly divided and inept, where most of them have no interest in power.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Likewise, SF harping on going into government only as the main party is a failing strategy. They ran away form government last time out. The polls show them pretty much as is even with Mary Lou not at the helm.

The centre is holding but they still represent over 60% of the total, while the 40% are hopelessly divided and inept, where most of them have no interest in power.

2014 they fell below 50% of the combined vote. In 1982 they had over 80%

Speaks for itself really.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2014 they fell below 50% of the combined vote. In 1982 they had over 80%

Speaks for itself really.

Yet are back up to over 60% now.... so whats your point?

billy few mates

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If he did something illegal he was always going to have to resign.
Being chuffed that the US president thinks you did a criminal favour for him is cringeworthy but not illegal.

Can you imagine how empty the SF benches would be if every politician had to resign every time they did something illegal...? :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Yet are back up to over 60% now.... so whats your point?

Their combined percentage at the last election was 49.8%

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Their combined percentage at the last election was 49.8%

Yes, I know. Yet now the centre is consolidating.

Do you think either FG or FF will be the dominant party in the next Government? If so, why so?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Yes, I know. Yet now the centre is consolidating.

Do you think either FG or FF will be the dominant party in the next Government? If so, why so?

I can see FF remaining where they are, pulling the strings on the important issues.

I wonder will the incredible inability now to move legislation have any impact on voters.

FG seem to be sticking fingers in their ears and trying to ignore that politics has changed in Ireland. They seem to be arrogantly ignoring the will of the house on several issues now.

markodaly

I wonder will the incredible inability now to move legislation have any impact on voters.

FG seem to be sticking fingers in their ears and trying to ignore that politics has changed in Ireland. They seem to be arrogantly ignoring the will of the house on several issues now.

Brilliant! Blame FG for not passing enough legislation (due to the numbers the voters gave us) and also blame them that they are in a minority government. Having your cake and eating it?

You didn't answer my question, do you think any other party other than FF or FG will be the majority party in the next government?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Brilliant! Blame FG for not passing enough legislation (due to the numbers the voters gave us) and also blame them that they are in a minority government. Having your cake and eating it?

You didn't answer my question, do you think any other party other than FF or FG will be the majority party in the next government?

I didn't blame FG for not passing legislation, I asked if the faxt it wasn't being passed would have an impact.

And you asked this:

Do you think either FG or FF will be the dominant party in the next Government? If so, why so?

Which I answered.

And I think one of the two will be biggest party after the next election.
Will either one be in the next government remains to be seen

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2014 they fell below 50% of the combined vote. In 1982 they had over 80%

Speaks for itself really.

2014?

Certainly, the 2016 general election result had some interesting outcomes.

As you point out, it was the first time that the two largest parties fell below 50% of the combined vote.

Secondly, the Labour Party imploded like never before.

Thirdly, the first sign of peak Sinn Fein having been reached with them being the only party to lose votes from the previous European elections

Finally, the rise of the independents to never before seen heights.

Combined, all of these point to a potentially very interesting next election. The failure of the opposition parties - Sinn Fein, Social Democrats, PBP etc. - to properly capitalise on the drop below 50% of the two main parties and the demise of the Labour Party throws open the question as to whether some of that lost support was only "lent" to independents by the two main parties, while people failed to convince themselves to vote for the alernative parties.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I didn't blame FG for not passing legislation, I asked if the faxt it wasn't being passed would have an impact.

And the antidote to a government that cant pass legislation is a) vote for non-centrist alternatives which would cause more gridlock or b) vote strongly for FF or FG who can then form a proper government.

Your scenarios are doing your argument no favour

And I think one of the two will be biggest party after the next election.

Correct. So what have the alternatives have to offer in terms. All your predictions of the demise of FG and FF ring hollow when you openly admit that one of them will be in government next time round.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

And the antidote to a government that cant pass legislation is a) vote for non-centrist alternatives which would cause more gridlock or b) vote strongly for FF or FG who can then form a proper government.

Your scenarios are doing your argument no favour



Correct. So what have the alternatives have to offer in terms. All your predictions of the demise of FG and FF ring hollow when you openly admit that one of them will be in government next time round.

Mark, you need to lay off the putting words in my mouth, please. I didn't predict the demise of anyone, and none of the main parties are going to die out either.

I am not a party spokesman for any party, merely an observer.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

2014?

Certainly, the 2016 general election result had some interesting outcomes.

As you point out, it was the first time that the two largest parties fell below 50% of the combined vote.

Secondly, the Labour Party imploded like never before.

Thirdly, the first sign of peak Sinn Fein having been reached with them being the only party to lose votes from the previous European elections

Finally, the rise of the independents to never before seen heights.

Combined, all of these point to a potentially very interesting next election. The failure of the opposition parties - Sinn Fein, Social Democrats, PBP etc. - to properly capitalise on the drop below 50% of the two main parties and the demise of the Labour Party throws open the question as to whether some of that lost support was only "lent" to independents by the two main parties, while people failed to convince themselves to vote for the alernative parties.

I have been saying it all along, the election after a campaign will be, like the last time, the real test.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not a party spokesman for any party, merely an observer.

An 'observer' who is highly cynical and critical of all things FG and who will put in 18 hour shifts defending SF.

At least be honest one where you lean, rather give us the 'I'm a swing voter' line.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As I said, I think the referendum will be closer than thought. If it is then there will be little bounce to be gotten and it may spark recriminations within FG.
.

For the pro-choicers, the credit for actually having the referendum will go to FG, the blame for the loss will fall on the likes of FF, who are lukewarm at best and SF who can't make up their mind what they are for.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Brexit is other major stumbling block for Leo.
We saw him get a big bounce from the December talks.
If he fails to deliver what was portrayed as 'guaranteed', that bounce could rebound spectacularly.

Again depends, will Leo take the blame, or will the dastardly Brits cop the blame? There will be plenty of blame to go around, those who refused to take their seats in Westminister and couldn't do a deal on Stormont will also be in the frame.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

An 'observer' who is highly cynical and critical of all things FG and who will put in 18 hour shifts defending SF.

At least be honest one where you lean, rather give us the 'I'm a swing voter' line.

I am not going to tout any party line here.
I hve given FG and FF due where it is due.

blanch152

markodaly wrote: »

And the antidote to a government that cant pass legislation is a) vote for non-centrist alternatives which would cause more gridlock or b) vote strongly for FF or FG who can then form a proper government.

Your scenarios are doing your argument no favour



Correct. So what have the alternatives have to offer in terms. All your predictions of the demise of FG and FF ring hollow when you openly admit that one of them will be in government next time round.

Incredibly, our Francie seems to believe that it is probable that neither of them will be in government next time out:

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And I think one of the two will be biggest party after the next election.
Will either one be in the next government remains to be seen

I find it impossible to envisage a scenario whereby neither FF nor FG are involved in government next time out. It just doesn't seem possible, barring an armed coup by the remainder of the IRA.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

For the pro-choicers, the credit for actually having the referendum will go to FG, the blame for the loss will fall on the likes of FF, who are lukewarm at best and SF who can't make up their mind what they are for.








Again depends, will Leo take the blame, or will the dastardly Brits cop the blame? There will be plenty of blame to go around, those who refused to take their seats in Westminister and couldn't do a deal on Stormont will also be in the frame.

There is certainly the possibility emerging that Leo and Simon may have fallen for a duplicitous three card trick here.
They are going to have to massively up their game in the next few months having not got a 'bulletproof' guarantee of anything by the looks of things.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not going to tout any party line here.
I hve given FG and FF due where it is due.

Examples of this? Links?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Examples of this? Links?

I have done it on this very thread. :rolleyes:

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have done it on this very thread. :rolleyes:

No, you have not.

The full quote.

Yes, everyone was happy with how he and Coveney dealt with the issue and we all relaxed when he said positions were guaranteed.

Turns out they aren't and the talk is now shifting to Ireland having lost ground and on the horizon is the possibility that Leo may have been spectacular outplayed by the British.

FG TD's are increasingly having to spin what was once 'guaranteed' to now be 'we will have to see what happens in October, this was always going to be difficult...etc etc.'

So, you give some grudging cudos, but you are actually setting up your argument, as you criticise them in the next two paragraphs.

Try harder.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

No, you have not.

The full quote.



So, you give some grudging cudos, but you are actually setting up your argument, as you criticise them in the next two paragraphs.

Try harder.

I gave them credit for their initial work. It's a fluid situation, that credit doesn't apply if the situation changes and they don't keep up the good work.

I am not welded to them

And I also not here to validate or justify myself to you.

So can we stay on the topic of the thread?

James Brown

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fg and FF have practically merged to block other parties out and to keep SF out of the official opposition role.
That will only work for a while.
And all the while their combined vote is falling. Politics is changing in Ireland at long last.

Kenny and Fine Gael's nonsense promises had a lot to do with that. But why the fortunes of minor parties are some how a litmus test for measuring the rampant arrogance and waste of Fine Gael eludes me.
The fact that they are in bed with Fianna Fail speaks volumes. How they can still use 'alphabet soup' as the bogeyman is embarrassing for them and their complete lack of any kind of moral or political ideological stance.
It's obviously about maintaining power. Parties who don't con as well and are less willing to sell their morals down the river, tend to not do so well. Bertie was very popular. Being popular isn't a sign of good or sound governance in action.

The call must have gone out to the blue knights of Fine Gael after Eamon Ryan summing up Varadkar and Fine Gael so well.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

For the pro-choicers, the credit for actually having the referendum will go to FG, the blame for the loss will fall on the likes of FF, who are lukewarm at best and SF who can't make up their mind what they are for.


Again depends, will Leo take the blame, or will the dastardly Brits cop the blame? There will be plenty of blame to go around, those who refused to take their seats in Westminister and couldn't do a deal on Stormont will also be in the frame.

I would not see much if any credit going to a government that failed to carry its own referendum. In fact if this referendum does fail I can see a major part of that down to the replacement wording being decided by the Houses of the Oreachtas.

If there is to be a hard Brexit do not be surprised if the view being expressed by our EU partners is that Ireland`s position on the border was a major factor.
This has all the signs of going to the final vote with a deal done on everything else other than the border.
If so then our only options are except or veto.
What Varadkar called a "cast iron guarantee" and "politically bullet proof" during Phase 1 talks is being now shown to be a fudge that allowed the British to move to Phase 2.
Quotes that will come back to haunt him in the event of a hard Brexit.

If we were going to use our veto then it should have been when we had the publicly stated support of our EU partners that there would be no movement to Phase 2 unless we were satisfied with the border proposals.
The Westminster seats refusal is a none issue as has been shown here many times already

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Mark, you need to lay off the putting words in my mouth, please. I didn't predict the demise of anyone, and none of the main parties are going to die out either.

I am not a party spokesman for any party, merely an observer.

You didn't?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Fg and FF have practically merged to block other parties out and to keep SF out of the official opposition role.
That will only work for a while.
And all the while their combined vote is falling. Politics is changing in Ireland at long last.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2014 they fell below 50% of the combined vote. In 1982 they had over 80%

Speaks for itself really.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Effectively the pressure from the opposition has merged FF and FG.
And they cannot untangle themselves at election.
That is the significant change, they fall in the combined vote these two have gotten.

.

Can you explain more clearly what you mean?

On the one hand you are saying that the opposition have forced FF and FG to merge, that keeping the opposition out will only work for a while, that their falling vote since 1980 speaks for itself, yet on the other hand, you say that you are not predicting the demise of anyone.

It might be just me but I am confused by your posts. Either the sky is falling down for Leo and FG or it isn't.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

I would not see much if any credit going to a government that failed to carry its own referendum. In fact if this referendum does fail I can see a major part of that down to the replacement wording being decided by the Houses of the Oreachtas.

Given the governing parties - FG and Independent Alliance - got less than 30% of the vote in the general election, surely a yes vote in excess of 30% represents an achievement for them.