Leo is the new king of Ireland.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You didn't?

Do you understand what the word 'demise' means?

It means (to me anyhow) the 'end of' 'termination' of something or somebody.

I never predicted the end of or termination of FG.

Can you explain more clearly what you mean?

On the one hand you are saying that the opposition have forced FF and FG to merge, that keeping the opposition out will only work for a while, that their falling vote since 1980 speaks for itself, yet on the other hand, you say that you are not predicting the demise of anyone.

It might be just me but I am confused by your posts. Either the sky is falling down for Leo and FG or it isn't.

Governments change.
I am sure we will have FG and FF for quite some time yet.
They had to more or less coalesce after nearly 70 days of negotiation after the last election.
FG are in government only because FF say it is ok.
The same FF that broke the country, as some might say. Power is everything it seems.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Given the governing parties - FG and Independent Alliance - got less than 30% of the vote in the general election, surely a yes vote in excess of 30% represents an achievement for them.

A government backed referendum that would only achieve a yes vote in the 30% range would be an ill judged disaster for any government

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do you understand what the word 'demise' means?

It means (to me anyhow) the 'end of' 'termination' of something or somebody.

I never predicted the end of or termination of FG.

Governments change.
I am sure we will have FG and FF for quite some time yet.
They had to more or less coalesce after nearly 70 days of negotiation after the last election.
FG are in government only because FF say it is ok.
The same FF that broke the country, as some might say. Power is everything it seems.

You twice predicted an effective merger of FF and FG. If that doesn't represent an ending, a demise or a termination, I don't know what does.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

A government backed referendum that would only achieve a yes vote in the 30% range would be an ill judged disaster for any government

Starting from the point of view that that government had only popular support of around 26-27%, anything above that is to their credit.

I fully expect the referendum to be passed, and when it is, I hope you will be back to give the government the credit for it, when you seem so keen to prepare the way to blame them if it fails.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Starting from the point of view that that government had only popular support of around 26-27%, anything above that is to their credit.

I fully expect the referendum to be passed, and when it is, I hope you will be back to give the government the credit for it, when you seem so keen to prepare the way to blame them if it fails.

You do know the difference between a referendum and a general election do you not.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You twice predicted an effective merger of FF and FG. If that doesn't represent an ending, a demise or a termination, I don't know what does.

Have they changed their names? I must have missed that.
I said they have effectively or practically merged.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

You do know the difference between a referendum and a general election do you not.

Yes, but the real danger in referendums is opposition politicians not campaigning in order to hope for egg on the face of the government. With the government parties starting from 26-27% support, there is a clear opportunity. The failure of FF TDs to support a referendum, the confusion about where exactly SF stand on the issue etc. do not give one hope that the opposition parties truly support the referendum.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Starting from the point of view that that government had only popular support of around 26-27%, anything above that is to their credit.

I fully expect the referendum to be passed, and when it is, I hope you will be back to give the government the credit for it, when you seem so keen to prepare the way to blame them if it fails.

They are on the backfoot with this referendum judging from the yesterdays poll
A 10 point swing against repeal.

Sierra Oscar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are on the backfoot with this referendum judging from the yesterdays poll
A 10 point swing against repeal.

Support for repeal is actually up from 51% to 52% in the same poll.

The undecided voters are heavily swinging towards a no vote, which was entirely predictable.

The repeal campaign still needs to get its act together though.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are on the backfoot with this referendum judging from the yesterdays poll
A 10 point swing against repeal.

With Sinn Fein refusing to support the 12-week proposal and FF split, this was always likely to be the case.

Thankfully Simon Coveney has come off the fence on the right side.

blanch152

blanch152 wrote: »

Thankfully Simon Coveney has come off the fence on the right side.

Well, he was hardly going to take the left side.

FrancieBrady

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Support for repeal is actually up from 51% to 52% in the same poll.

The undecided voters are heavily swinging towards a no vote, which was entirely predictable.

The repeal campaign still needs to get its act together though.

I think the government are in a mess on it tbh. In-fighting and incoherence.
I can see it being lost.

The hard graft is being done by NGO's imo.

James Brown

This particular can has been kicked down the road by FF and FG for decades.
Fine Gael are straining to play both sides. It's commendable that we are closer now than we have ever been before, but no party has put their 100% into this. My concern would be Fine Gael trying so hard to placate both sides the whole thing becomes fudged.
Whats done is done. The can has been kicked into committee, amended and so on. The real test and kudos if any to be divvied out will be when each party and politician show their mettle when it goes to the people. Hopefully FG haven't made it worthless or piecemeal by then.
I'll personally take note of any party or politician sitting this one out until the dust settles.
Currently I see tentative support with ever drifting conditions; that's not good enough.

The Taoiseach has said he absolutely trusts the Irish people to make the right decision in the referendum on Eighth amendment “based on compassion, based on empathy, while not disrespecting human life”.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/eighth-amendment-varadkar-trusts-irish-people-to-make-right-decision-1.3366084

Clear as mud. Caretaker keeping the lights on.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

This particular can has been kicked down the road by FF and FG for decades.
Fine Gael are straining to play both sides. It's commendable that we are closer now than we have ever been before, but no party has put their 100% into this. My concern would be Fine Gael trying so hard to placate both sides the whole thing becomes fudged.
Whats done is done. The can has been kicked into committee, amended and so on. The real test and kudos if any to be divvied out will be when each party and politician show their mettle when it goes to the people. Hopefully FG haven't made it worthless or piecemeal by then.
I'll personally take note of any party or politician sitting this one out until the dust settles.
Currently I see tentative support with ever drifting conditions; that's not good enough.



Clear as mud. Caretaker keeping the lights on.

Now lads, this takes some beating in terms of blaming Fine Gael in advance.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/abortion-referendum/21-fianna-fil-tds-vote-against-holding-abortion-referendum-36731209.html

Fianna Fail is split down the middle on this, with even those in favour being lukewarm given that they would like to see some shine knocked off Leo.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/spotlight-on-sinn-fin-as-clear-majority-of-tds-rejects-12week-proposal-36562750.html


Sinn Fein's opposition to the 12-week proposal means that even if the referendum is passed, there is no guarantee on the legislation.

Yet, bizarrely, it somehow is all Leo's fault if the referendum doesn't go through.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Now lads, this takes some beating in terms of blaming Fine Gael in advance.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/abortion-referendum/21-fianna-fil-tds-vote-against-holding-abortion-referendum-36731209.html

Fianna Fail is split down the middle on this, with even those in favour being lukewarm given that they would like to see some shine knocked off Leo.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/spotlight-on-sinn-fin-as-clear-majority-of-tds-rejects-12week-proposal-36562750.html


Sinn Fein's opposition to the 12-week proposal means that even if the referendum is passed, there is no guarantee on the legislation.

Yet, bizarrely, it somehow is all Leo's fault if the referendum doesn't go through.

You want the credit to go to FG if it passes,

blanch152 wrote:

I fully expect the referendum to be passed, and when it is, I hope you will be back to give the government the credit for it

and no blame to apply if it fails?

And you are calling other points of view 'bizarre'?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You want the credit to go to FG if it passes,


and no blame to apply if it fails?

And you are calling other points of view 'bizarre'?

Oh dear.

I was asking Charlie if he would be back to give the government the credit when it passed, given he was trying to blame them in advance for its failure.

You are taking my comment completely out of context for some strange reason.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

Now lads, this takes some beating in terms of blaming Fine Gael in advance.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/abortion-referendum/21-fianna-fil-tds-vote-against-holding-abortion-referendum-36731209.html

Fianna Fail is split down the middle on this, with even those in favour being lukewarm given that they would like to see some shine knocked off Leo.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/spotlight-on-sinn-fin-as-clear-majority-of-tds-rejects-12week-proposal-36562750.html


Sinn Fein's opposition to the 12-week proposal means that even if the referendum is passed, there is no guarantee on the legislation.

Yet, bizarrely, it somehow is all Leo's fault if the referendum doesn't go through.

Leo's fault is not being a clear leader on this, either way. It's bizarre Varadkar, the person known for his mouth, is now leader and not leading. His days of being the minster or little engine who could if only he had the authority are over. Ryan summed him up. I'm probably cast as a hippy now :rolleyes:
I am blaming all politicians who are not picking and fighting for a side, especially FG and junior partner FF, as the two parties with the largest cult following, one officially in government, for not taking a clear stand. Like all things any sensible person weighs in on, it's about issues and policies not which team scores political points and jeering like schoolyard children.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Oh dear.

I was asking Charlie if he would be back to give the government the credit when it passed, given he was trying to blame them in advance for its failure.

You are taking my comment completely out of context for some strange reason.

It could pass despite the government dithering.
It may NOT be the government, but others that do the graft on it.

If the government want the credit, it is time for clear coherent statements to come from them. They are proposing the legislative change, the buck stops with them ultimately.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes, but the real danger in referendums is opposition politicians not campaigning in order to hope for egg on the face of the government. With the government parties starting from 26-27% support, there is a clear opportunity. The failure of FF TDs to support a referendum, the confusion about where exactly SF stand on the issue etc. do not give one hope that the opposition parties truly support the referendum.

The problems with referendums are that governments propose them and losing reflects on their judgement for either calling one in the first place or secondly messing up the proposal. Something that imo is quite possible with the current proposal of the Houses of the Oireachtas wording the replacement.
The other problem is that governments rarely get any boost from a referendum that carries.
As shown by the same sex marriage referendum and the general election 9 months later.

But enough of that. Any thoughts on Varadkar`s "cast iron guarantee" and "politically bullet proof" statements on the border issue that he got such a poll boost from?
Looking a dodgy fudge at the minute is it not ?

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Oh dear.

I was asking Charlie if he would be back to give the government the credit when it passed, given he was trying to blame them in advance for its failure.

You are taking my comment completely out of context for some strange reason.

Charlie was not blaming anyone in advance.
Just simply pointing out if the referendum fails to be carried their will in all probability be questions asked if the proposal to have the Oireachtas replace the wording played a factor.
It is certainly an issue with quite a few people I have talked to.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

But enough of that. Any thoughts on Varadkar`s "cast iron guarantee" and "politically bullet proof" statements on the border issue that he got such a poll boost from?
Looking a dodgy fudge at the minute is it not ?

He was stupid to make those commitments. Short of a complete UK climbdown, some sort of border looks inevitable.

He will probably go with the "I tried, but the Brits were two-faced". After all, that line has worked for others for decades.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Charlie was not blaming anyone in advance.
Just simply pointing out if the referendum fails to be carried their will in all probability be questions asked if the proposal to have the Oireachtas replace the wording played a factor.
It is certainly an issue with quite a few people I have talked to.

I haven't seen a single proposal from any side for a workable replacement wording. After the 1983 mess, people should know by now that putting stuff like that in a Constitution is stupid.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

He was stupid to make those commitments. Short of a complete UK climbdown, some sort of border looks inevitable.

He will probably go with the "I tried, but the Brits were two-faced". After all, that line has worked for others for decades.

The criticism will be that he lied for optics once...again. And rightfully so.

The issue is much too serious to be letting somebody off with a 'he was young and inexperienced' excuse.
The entire government sold the December deal as 'bulletproof'.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

He was stupid to make those commitments. Short of a complete UK climbdown, some sort of border looks inevitable.

He will probably go with the "I tried, but the Brits were two-faced". After all, that line has worked for others for decades.

Stupid comments seem to becoming quite the norm for him, inexperience perhaps?

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

He was stupid to make those commitments. Short of a complete UK climbdown, some sort of border looks inevitable.

He will probably go with the "I tried, but the Brits were two-faced". After all, that line has worked for others for decades.

If there is a hard Brexit blaming it on the Brits is not going to be that easy.
The fact that Varadkar accepted a fudge with no detail when he had the opportunity with the public stated backing of our EU partners in December to hold up talks progressing to Phase 2 until the details were in place to our satisfaction will take a lot of explaining after him milking it then.

He will look naive and if he attempts to use Ireland`s veto, should all else be agreed other than the border issue, doubly so

oscarBravo

charlie14 wrote: »

If there is a hard Brexit blaming it on the Brits is not going to be that easy.

If there's a hard Brexit, blaming it on the Brits will make perfect sense, because it's their fault.

That won't stop people trying to blame Leo, but Brexit isn't Leo's fault, no matter how much some people want it to be.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

I haven't seen a single proposal from any side for a workable replacement wording. After the 1983 mess, people should know by now that putting stuff like that in a Constitution is stupid.

Well from people I have talked, to quite a few are not happy with not being given the opportunity to decide on accepting or rejecting the constitution wording now.

kerry cow

You need BALLS to make a decision that's offends the other ,but is in the best interest of your nation .
Who has them and who has not .

FrancieBrady

oscarBravo wrote: »

If there's a hard Brexit, blaming it on the Brits will make perfect sense, because it's their fault.

That won't stop people trying to blame Leo, but Brexit isn't Leo's fault, no matter how much some people want it to be.

Leo's job was to safeguard Ireland's interests and he claimed he had in a 'bulletproof' way.

oscarBravo

charlie14 wrote: »

Well from people I have talked, to quite a few are not happy with not being given the opportunity to decide on accepting or rejecting the constitution wording now.

I don't know what they're unhappy about, because "accepting or rejecting the constitution wording" is precisely what the referendum is for.