Leo is the new king of Ireland.

charlie14

Jawgap wrote: »

Doubt it because there is nothing to suggest that any of the other parties have any other ideas on how to deal with the issue beyond throwing shed loads of money at it.

My own view, having previously worked in public procurement, is that if you think the private sector providing housing is expensive, wait until the local authorities start building then you'll see expensive!!

Plus, Dublin is Dublin - it's always going to be pricey and the fact remains those type of rents don't apply across all of the the city and even if they did they'd only impact a tiny minority of voters.

People care about what's in their pockets - that'll determine how they vote.

That was the thinking behind the FG strategy in 2016 with the slogan of keeping the recovery going and it didn`t work out that well then

A Behaviour & Attitude exit poll GE 2016 found that Health Services/Hospitals was the issue of most influence on first preference votes, and that the homeless situation/ lack of local authority housing were a higher influence on first preference votes than taxation/structure of taxation/USC.

If there was a GE called today I haven`t seen anything in the interim that would have changed those first vote preferences.

charlie14

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

What?

I never replied about the minority government.

Im saying FF behaving like a left wing party bust the country and they were voted out for this.

Now they are slowly gaining people's trust again in not behaving like a left wing party anymore.

I would be of the opinion that the seats gained by FF 2016 were due to them pitching their policies towards left of center voters.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

What?

I never replied about the minority government.

Im saying FF behaving like a left wing party bust the country and they were voted out for this.

Now they are slowly gaining people's trust again in not behaving like a left wing party anymore.

That clears it up a bit, thanks for clarifying.

I love how you're blaming "the left" regardless though , when pointed out to you that it wasn't a left wing govt got us in the crap in the past you say it was because they were acting like they were a left wing party - marvellous.

smurgen

Jawgap wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Sub standard accomodation at over inflated prices.also blank cheques for housing families in emergency accomodation.i.believe these issues will explode in fg's face.wait until rent hits 2,500 a month in dublin and we'll see how loved fg are.

Doubt it because there is nothing to suggest that any of the other parties have any other ideas on how to deal with the issue beyond throwing shed loads of money at it.

My own view, having previously worked in public procurement, is that if you think the private sector providing housing is expensive, wait until the local authorities start building then you'll see expensive!!

Plus, Dublin is Dublin - it's always going to be pricey and the fact remains those type of rents don't apply across all of the the city and even if they did they'd only impact a tiny minority of voters.

People care about what's in their pockets - that'll determine how they vote.

Average rent increases in double digits in 2016 & 17 while wages grew only 3%.less money in pockets it seems.

Leonard Hofstadter

Water John wrote: »

Captain, What we know in this country is that, majority one party government doesn't, put the country first. It puts the party first.
A single party FG Govn't, wouldn't be any better than a FF one.

Sadly,in this Govn't, the only independent Minister, worth their place is, Katherine Zappone.

There is only one King in Ireland and that's the King of Tory Island.

When I said majority, I didn't mean a FG overall majority - it's completely unrealistic to ever expect that to happen thanks to our PR system (sure even at the height of the last boom FF couldn't manage it) even though I would like to see FG in on their own!

I'd like to see the numbers for a coalition Government and not in any way, shape or form reliant on a confidence and supply type arrangement. I'd also like a Government with political parties rather than gombeen independents (but I'd settle for a majority coalition Government who gets things done rather than be reliant on FF).

Admittedly it's not really the case now as Leo has got ambition and is giving us a vision of the type of country he'd like to see us become, and has done some very welcome things like National Planning Framework (even though it is flawed in ways - not helped by the likes of Boxer Moran - it's a damn sight better than anything that went before it) and has taken a hard line on the border and so on and I'm very satisfied with his performance.

However, when Kenny was in charge it was essentially a FF Government just it had a lot of FG Ministers and there was so much populist bull crap like free water and stuff that FG sold their souls out on.

With a majority Government we wouldn't be beholden to that kind of nonsense and FG could get on with making difficult but necessary decisions to move Ireland forward and make sure we continue to attract investment and good quality jobs rather than falling for whatever the latest cause is on the populist bandwagon and being completely beholden to vested interests and gombeen / parochial politics (as we saw with the nonsense Boxer Moran was peddling with in relation to Athlone during the week for the National Planning Framework).

Jawgap

smurgen wrote: »

Average rent increases in double digits in 2016 & 17 while wages grew only 3%.less money in pockets it seems.

Not everyone rents so while tenants may be expending more on procuring their accommodation, not everyone is.

charlie14

captainspeed wrote: »

When I said majority, I didn't mean a FG overall majority - it's completely unrealistic to ever expect that to happen thanks to our PR system (sure even at the height of the last boom FF couldn't manage it) even though I would like to see FG in on their own!

I'd like to see the numbers for a coalition Government and not in any way, shape or form reliant on a confidence and supply type arrangement. I'd also like a Government with political parties rather than gombeen independents (but I'd settle for a majority coalition Government who gets things done rather than be reliant on FF).

Admittedly it's not really the case now as Leo has got ambition and is giving us a vision of the type of country he'd like to see us become, and has done some very welcome things like National Planning Framework (even though it is flawed in ways - not helped by the likes of Boxer Moran - it's a damn sight better than anything that went before it) and has taken a hard line on the border and so on and I'm very satisfied with his performance.

However, when Kenny was in charge it was essentially a FF Government just it had a lot of FG Ministers and there was so much populist bull crap like free water and stuff that FG sold their souls out on.

With a majority Government we wouldn't be beholden to that kind of nonsense and FG could get on with making difficult but necessary decisions to move Ireland forward and make sure we continue to attract investment and good quality jobs rather than falling for whatever the latest cause is on the populist bandwagon and being completely beholden to vested interests and gombeen / parochial politics (as we saw with the nonsense Boxer Moran was peddling with in relation to Athlone during the week for the National Planning Framework).

I would not see a majority government being formed by anyone in the forseeable future by any party.
FG had a practical free run in 2011 and could not manage it, so it is going to be a coalition in one form or othe,r and with Labour on life support, that leaves a coalition made up from FG, FF, SF or a confidence and supply arrangement.
Either that or it is one party with independent add-ons.

While the National Planning Framework has some good aspirational ideas it is basically only that, and looks to have political fingerprints all over it already.
There is also the fact that the proposed 116 Billion would be funded by taxpayers which would put a damper on FG`s tax cuts plans.

Difficult to believe in any great future long term plans for a country where we cannot even join up two Luas lines without blocking up a city centre and a broadband countrywide policy where there is only one bidder for the contract.

Who in gods name is honestly participating in these opinion polls id love to know? Are they even going outside South Dublin?

Water John

The Sunday newspapers polls conducted by Kantar Milward Brown and Behaviour and Attitudes would be done in a reputable way.
This would be a sample across all consituencies, male and female and age.

Don't try p***ing on them because you disagree with the outcomes.

Edward M

charlie14 wrote: »

I would not see a majority government being formed by anyone in the forseeable future by any party.
FG had a practical free run in 2011 and could not manage it, so it is going to be a coalition in one form or othe,r and with Labour on life support, that leaves a coalition made up from FG, FF, SF or a confidence and supply arrangement.
Either that or it is one party with independent add-ons.

While the National Planning Framework has some good aspirational ideas it is basically only that, and looks to have political fingerprints all over it already.
There is also the fact that the proposed 116 Billion would be funded by taxpayers which would put a damper on FG`s tax cuts plans.

Difficult to believe in any great future long term plans for a country where we cannot even join up two Luas lines without blocking up a city centre and a broadband countrywide policy where there is only one bidder for the contract.

Maybe people have longer memories than FF and others give them credit for.
We are lucky to be still able to debate the rights and wrongs of our own situation based on it being in our own control one way or another.
Now I'm not heaping praise on Leo, Ends, FG, Lab or the current independent crew, nor am I happy in total with our current situation.
All our services are in chaos of some sort, but it looks like voters haven't forgotten the crash as FF might have hoped they would.
This govt is plodding along though, and despite the crisis in several areas, we all know what they are, economy is going good enough.
Maybe voters see it as, although everything isn't perfect, its better to be safe than sorry, so let's not rock the boat too much. FF can't really be trusted they might think, SF are making noises, but what experience in such things have they.
It might just be that people are not altogether happy, but don't feel at risk as much with FG in charge, and Leo does seem to be head and shoulders above all the other leaders also.
The why of Leo's popularity is a mystery to me though!

Water John

Water John wrote: »

The Sunday newspapers polls conducted by Kantar Milward Brown and Behaviour and Attitudes would be done in a reputable way.
This would be a sample across all consituencies, male and female and age.

Don't try p***ing on them because you disagree with the outcomes.

Oh have you overseen the process so? Oh great sure ill take your word for it :rolleyes:

Funny the same people who would tell the rest of us to suck up the opinion polls would bitch about Brexit and Trump.

Only one poll will matter anyway and i for one cant wait for Leo to call this election. Whats he waiting for?

Water John

Opinion Polls are just that. They normally contain a 3% margin of error.
I suggest you debate each issue in its own thread.

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

The Sunday newspapers polls conducted by Kantar Milward Brown and Behaviour and Attitudes would be done in a reputable way.
This would be a sample across all consituencies, male and female and age.

Don't try p***ing on them because you disagree with the outcomes.

I wasn`t p***ing on opinion polls.
They pretty much did that too themselves in recent years when compared to election results both here and elsewhere.
It is even more difficult to give them a lot of credence when you consider the variation in percentage support between polls taken at virtually the same time using the same methodology.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

I wasn`t p***ing on opinion polls.
They pretty much did that too themselves in recent years when compared to election results both here and elsewhere.
It is even more difficult to give them a lot of credence when you consider the variation in percentage support between polls taken at virtually the same time using the same methodology.

The polls are best for identifying trends. Calculating exactly where a party stands at any one point in time is less useful from a poll.

A couple of trends can be identified from recent polls. FG have got a Leo boost. FF have consolidated their general election performance. SF have hit a ceiling or a wall, something anyway, that prevents their poll ratings rising, no matter how bad they try to present the health crisis getting or the rent crisis getting. Labour are still in the doldrums and independents are losing support as the economy recovers.

What is most interesting is how those figures play out if there was an election tomorrow and a government was needed. FF could not support FG from the outside again. That means going in as a junior partner to FG or a senior partner to SF.

I think FF will be back in government after the next election, and I think it will be in coalition with SF and independents, even though FG will be the party to make gains.

charlie14

Edward M wrote: »

Maybe people have longer memories than FF and others give them credit for.
We are lucky to be still able to debate the rights and wrongs of our own situation based on it being in our own control one way or another.
Now I'm not heaping praise on Leo, Ends, FG, Lab or the current independent crew, nor am I happy in total with our current situation.
All our services are in chaos of some sort, but it looks like voters haven't forgotten the crash as FF might have hoped they would.
This govt is plodding along though, and despite the crisis in several areas, we all know what they are, economy is going good enough.
Maybe voters see it as, although everything isn't perfect, its better to be safe than sorry, so let's not rock the boat too much. FF can't really be trusted they might think, SF are making noises, but what experience in such things have they.
It might just be that people are not altogether happy, but don't feel at risk as much with FG in charge, and Leo does seem to be head and shoulders above all the other leaders also.
The why of Leo's popularity is a mystery to me though!

When you look at the results of the 2016 GE I`m not that sure people have long memories regarding FF or whether they trust them any more or less than FG.
FG fought that election on the basis of the economy going good enough and not rocking the boat, and were more or less undone by those crisis in several areas.
Those crisis areas are still there and if there are no improvements by the next GE then that will be a major problem for FG.
At present I do not get the whole Varadkar thing either.
He was not exactly outstanding in any ministerial positions he held and so far, to me anyway, its as much to do with spin as substance.

Wheeliebin30

charlie14 wrote: »

When you look at the results of the 2016 GE I`m not that sure people have long memories regarding FF or whether they trust them any more or less than FG.
FG fought that election on the basis of the economy going good enough and not rocking the boat, and were more or less undone by those crisis in several areas.
Those crisis areas are still there and if there are no improvements by the next GE then that will be a major problem for FG.
At present I do not get the whole Varadkar thing either.
He was not exactly outstanding in any ministerial positions he held and so far, to me anyway, its as much to do with spin as substance.

Realty grates me when people mention leo/fg and spin.

Its as if no other political party ever try to spin things to make situations seem worst but make themselves look good.

This "homeless" crisis has been spun to ridiculous levels by the opposition, people are starting to question it more and more.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

The polls are best for identifying trends. Calculating exactly where a party stands at any one point in time is less useful from a poll.

If they are then trends change very quickly when you compare the polls a short time before the 2016 GE with the GE result.

charlie14

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Realty grates me when people mention leo/fg and spin.

Its as if no other political party ever try to spin things to make situations seem worst but make themselves look good.

This "homeless" crisis has been spun to ridiculous levels by the opposition, people are starting to question it more and more.

Of course all politicians try to spin, but to date for me Varadkar is more spin than substance.
Politicians by nature, especially when in opposition, keep their ears close to the ground.
When they are raising the volume "to ridiculous levels" on an issue, then the wisest action for a government would be best to take note imho.

McMurphy

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Realty grates me when people mention leo/fg and spin.

Its as if no other political party ever try to spin things to make situations seem worst but make themselves look good.

This "homeless" crisis has been spun to ridiculous levels by the opposition, people are starting to question it more and more.

Yeah but Leo literally spends millions on his particular spin on things.

The Government has maintained its Strategic Communications Unit - dubbed as its “spin department” - will be cost neutral despite the Budget 2018 documents showing it will cost €5 million to run next year.

smurgen

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Realty grates me when people mention leo/fg and spin.

Its as if no other political party ever try to spin things to make situations seem worst but make themselves look good.

This "homeless" crisis has been spun to ridiculous levels by the opposition, people are starting to question it more and more.

Yeah but Leo literally spends millions on his particular spin on things.

The Government has maintained its Strategic Communications Unit - dubbed as its “spin department” - will be cost neutral despite the Budget 2018 documents showing it will cost €5 million to run next year.

The thing is this is a spend detrimental to the tax payer at the cost to the tax payer.

Edward M

charlie14 wrote: »

When you look at the results of the 2016 GE I`m not that sure people have long memories regarding FF or whether they trust them any more or less than FG.
FG fought that election on the basis of the economy going good enough and not rocking the boat, and were more or less undone by those crisis in several areas.
Those crisis areas are still there and if there are no improvements by the next GE then that will be a major problem for FG.
At present I do not get the whole Varadkar thing either.
He was not exactly outstanding in any ministerial positions he held and so far, to me anyway, its as much to do with spin as substance.

FG and labour lost that election on water charges IMO.
The fallacy that services can be provided without cost to the taxpayer is beginning to wear off now.
Sure enough if you bring on any charge that's seen as an extra, that is not a tax, then the opposition spin can win the day.
Not much marching and chanting of people in their thousands with their frustration with housing or health services.
I think that's despite not being happy perhaps, as long as its at no " personal" cost to them, its not as bad as having to pay an imagined extra cost.
I bet if there was a charge added per household to fix the health and housing service though, they'd be off banging their drums again!

Edward M

Edward M wrote: »

FG and labour lost that election on water charges IMO.
The fallacy that services can be provided without cost to the taxpayer is beginning to wear off now.
Sure enough if you bring on any charge that's seen as an extra, that is not a tax, then the opposition spin can win the day.
Not much marching and chanting of people in their thousands with their frustration with housing or health services.
I think that's despite not being happy perhaps, as long as its at no " personal" cost to them, its not as bad as having to pay an imagined extra cost.
I bet if there was a charge added per household to fix the health and housing service though, they'd be off banging their drums again!

There is huge salaries being paid to the top brass of the HSE for a failing Health Service and actually people have been protesting for better standards. No cardiac services in the South East whatsoever for example.
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2018/0210/939761-waterford-cardiac-protest/

The taxation is one thing but its obvious that much of it is going into several black holes regardless of the government of the day. 27 m for eircode for example when a much more effective system was offered for practically nothing.

The government are getting income tax, VAT, USC, Property Tax, Motor tax and whatever else have you. Corporations on the other hand, are paying pippence relative to yield and being let away with it.

Your right on one thing though, the bailout should have incurred mass protests, hell martial law even, but we took it lying down. I would say that the water tax was a culmination of all the austerity that the government have forced on us over the last couple of years

As for Labour losing the election on water charges alone, Labour lost the election because they were seen as the two faced lying hypocrites they were. Great defenders of the vulnerable until they got into power and then they nodded the head for Fine Gael. The only one of them with any integrity was Roisin Shortall who left a ministerial role because she seen through the bullsh*t and ineptitude

charlie14

Edward M wrote: »

FG and labour lost that election on water charges IMO.
The fallacy that services can be provided without cost to the taxpayer is beginning to wear off now.
Sure enough if you bring on any charge that's seen as an extra, that is not a tax, then the opposition spin can win the day.
Not much marching and chanting of people in their thousands with their frustration with housing or health services.
I think that's despite not being happy perhaps, as long as its at no " personal" cost to them, its not as bad as having to pay an imagined extra cost.
I bet if there was a charge added per household to fix the health and housing service though, they'd be off banging their drums again!

Water charges were a fiasco from the outset, and went rapidly downhill from there.
They were a major c**k -up by FG to the extent no political party will attempt imposing them for at least a lifetime.

Even at that water charges came in behind homelessness/social housing and health/hospitals on voters reasons for both their first and second preferences votes GE 2016.
Most people do not appear, in Ireland at least, too go out and protest.
They just wait and do it through the ballot box.

Edward M

I'm not disagreeing with either of the last two posts as such, just saying that the water issue is now dead, housing and health etc haven't seen any improvement as such, but still FG are on the rise.
That to me suggests what I said in my previous post is true.
Once an issue doesn't affect a voter directly, it looks like some are prepared to not consider it a major problem to them, hence FGs rise in the polls.
Nothing has improved since the last election bar the economy as far as I can see, why would FG see any increase in popularity, based on this govts record, unless voters are economically happy?

Wheeliebin30

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Yeah but Leo literally spends millions on his particular spin on things.

You see this is more lies.

Its a department that was set up to have better communication with the public from the government.

Once again the opposition are the ones putting their own spin on it.

Idbatterim

charlie14 wrote: »

Water charges were a fiasco from the outset, and went rapidly downhill from there.
They were a major c**k -up by FG to the extent no political party will attempt imposing them for at least a lifetime.

Even at that water charges came in behind homelessness/social housing and health/hospitals on voters reasons for both their first and second preferences votes GE 2016.
Most people do not appear, in Ireland at least, too go out and protest.
They just wait and do it through the ballot box.

there is one issue with doing it through the ballot box. How long it might take and the alternatives all being a joke, independents, sf or ff!

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

If they are then trends change very quickly when you compare the polls a short time before the 2016 GE with the GE result.

I will need to dig out those polls again for a more detailed post, but from my recollection there were signs in those polls of a change in trend. That trend accelerated in the last week as FF made gains from FG.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

I will need to dig out those polls again for a more detailed post, but from my recollection there were signs in those polls of a change in trend. That trend accelerated in the last week as FF made gains from FG.

Then it shows how quickly trends can change.

Political polls, not just in Ireland but elsewhere, have been so inaccurate that one could be forgiven for believing that the methodology consists of stopping random individuals trying to do a bit of shopping with a screaming toddler in a push-chair.
They give the first answer that comes into their head just to get away, but the closer election day comes give much more serious thought to the issues and vote accordingly.

Idbatterim

If ff want for make Inroads, do something that costs nothing and solves a crisis. Reduce the ridiculous regulation around apartments, resulting in them either not being built or flogged for a fortune!!!

charlie14

Idbatterim wrote: »

there is one issue with doing it through the ballot box. How long it might take and the alternatives all being a joke, independents, sf or ff!

That I`m afraid is how democracy works.

It may not be viewed as ideal by some, but as Churchill is often attributed as saying.
"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others"

charlie14

Edward M wrote: »

I'm not disagreeing with either of the last two posts as such, just saying that the water issue is now dead, housing and health etc haven't seen any improvement as such, but still FG are on the rise.
That to me suggests what I said in my previous post is true.
Once an issue doesn't affect a voter directly, it looks like some are prepared to not consider it a major problem to them, hence FGs rise in the polls.
Nothing has improved since the last election bar the economy as far as I can see, why would FG see any increase in popularity, based on this govts record, unless voters are economically happy?

You may be correct, but it may be worth keeping in mind that at the outset and all through the 2016 GE election campaign, FG put all their eggs in the basket based on voters being economically happy with the "Keep the recovery going" slogan.
The exit polls from then suggest that those issues that have not changed since were a major factor in how people actually voted.

charlie14

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

You see this is more lies.

Its a department that was set up to have better communication with the public from the government.

Once again the opposition are the ones putting their own spin on it.

That appears to be the spin being given alright, although there are not many swallowing it.
Not even FG backbench TD`s who are miffed that it has robbed them of any opportunities to claim credit for any goodies coming their constituencies way.

charlie14

Idbatterim wrote: »

If ff want for make Inroads, do something that costs nothing and solves a crisis. Reduce the ridiculous regulation around apartments, resulting in them either not being built or flogged for a fortune!!!

It would take more than that IMO to solve even the shortage in apartments.
When it comes to private developers I very much doubt easing building regulations, ridiculous as they may be, would have any great bearing on the prices being sought.

Perhaps a reduction in the VAT rates covering construction would be of benefit, (as unlike regulations it would be a discernible cost), but like the VAT reduction for the hospitality and catering industry, debatable if it would actually result in lower prices.
When it comes to private enterprise in Ireland, such incentives are generally gobbled up before they reach the end user.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

Then it shows how quickly trends can change.

Political polls, not just in Ireland but elsewhere, have been so inaccurate that one could be forgiven for believing that the methodology consists of stopping random individuals trying to do a bit of shopping with a screaming toddler in a push-chair.
They give the first answer that comes into their head just to get away, but the closer election day comes give much more serious thought to the issues and vote accordingly.

A lot of people post up statements on here with very little analysis behind them. Take you statement that the polls were inaccurate before the last general election. Well, here is someone that actually checked:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/triple-crown/

As you will see, both the exit polls were pretty accurate and MRBI were very close.

In the run-up to the election, that last poll by MRBI produced a result that was within the margin of error for every party.

Every single poll over-estimated the SF support, even both the exit polls did that, though sometimes it was within the margin of error.

There was also a second structural flaw in the B&A polls where they consistently under-estimated FF support.

All in all, as the author states, the performance by MRBI was particularly impressive.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

A lot of people post up statements on here with very little analysis behind them. Take you statement that the polls were inaccurate before the last general election. Well, here is someone that actually checked:

https://irishpollingreport.wordpress.com/2016/02/29/triple-crown/

As you will see, both the exit polls were pretty accurate and MRBI were very close.

In the run-up to the election, that last poll by MRBI produced a result that was within the margin of error for every party.

Every single poll over-estimated the SF support, even both the exit polls did that, though sometimes it was within the margin of error.

There was also a second structural flaw in the B&A polls where they consistently under-estimated FF support.

All in all, as the author states, the performance by MRBI was particularly impressive.

Well here is somebody who also checked and would not be overly impressed on the accuracy of polls based on their figures prior to the 2016 GE. Neither would I be inclined to trumpet their accuracy on them being a cumulative 11.36% off from exit polls as you appear to be doing in the case of one of them.

Especially a 11.36% first preference vote that in 2016 would have equated to 20 Dail seats or more under our PR system.

Perhaps a clearer example of just how off opinion polls were immediately prior to the GE.

General Election took place 26 Feb 2016.

Behaviour & Attitude Opinion Poll 17th Jan 2016

FG 31%
Ind & Others 26%
FF 20%
SF 16%
Lab 6%

Red C Poll 31st Jan 2016 Red C Poll 23rd Feb 2016

FG 29% FG 30%
Ind & Others 25% Ind & Others 28%
FF 17% FF 20%
SF 19% SF 15%
Lab 10% Lab 7%

General Election Results 26th Feb 2016.

FG 25.5%
Ind & Others 28.4%
FF 24.4%
SF 14.9%
Lab 6.6%

James Brown

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

FF behaving like a left party and people lapping it up was the reason.

That's a complete cop out.
When FF/FG do something wrong it's because they are acting like the left?
Therefore don't vote for the left, because they'll always act like bad choice FF/FG? What a joke.

Haughey, Ahern, Cowen, Noonan and Kenny are communists now? :rolleyes:

How do you explain away all the generational cronyism and fraud? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael acting like ...eh, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

El Tarangu

Matt Barrett wrote: »

That's a complete cop out.
When FF/FG do something wrong it's because they are acting like the left?
Therefore don't vote for the left, because they'll always act like bad choice FF/FG? What a joke.

Well, Bertie Aherne claimed to be a socialist, and public expenditure ballooned during his tenure as Taoiseach, so maybe he was.

Matt Barrett wrote: »

How do you explain away all the generational cronyism and fraud? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael acting like ...eh, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Are cronyism and other bad things in politics exclusively the reserve of the right?

Dyr

It's not rocket science

Economy on the up, Varadker a young Taoiseach not associated with Enda's reign of error, Thanks to his own cynical behaviour it has to be said.

Currently making statesmanlike shapes on Brexit and de nort. (and people underestimate how important that is, Albert and Bertie were hugely popular thanks to their profile with the peace process and north/south/Anglo/Irish relations. Bruton and Kenny made a complete balls of it and paid the price)

Michael Martin hiding in a bunker other than his brief appearance before christmas before bolting with fright. Mary lou not a wet day in the big job and IMO probably spent too long in the public eye as Sinn Feins attack dog.

He's well positioned all in all

charlie14

Bambi wrote: »

It's not rocket science

Economy on the up, Varadker a young Taoiseach not associated with Enda's reign of error, Thanks to his own cynical behaviour it has to be said.

Currently making statesmanlike shapes on Brexit and de nort. (and people underestimate how important that is, Albert and Bertie were hugely popular thanks to their profile with the peace process and north/south/Anglo/Irish relations. Bruton and Kenny made a complete balls of it and paid the price)

Michael Martin hiding in a bunker other than his brief appearance before christmas before bolting with fright. Mary lou not a wet day in the big job and IMO probably spent too long in the public eye as Sinn Feins attack dog.

He's well positioned all in all

I would agree that there are people, quite a few on this site it would seem, that underestimate how important Northern Ireland issues are in the deliberations of many when it comes to the ballot box.
The problem I can see for Varadkar down the road is that it he may have over-spun "the cast iron guarantees" on the border issue.
If so, something that will have consequences for him and FG in any forth- coming GE.

Dyr

It's not so much the issue as the profile it affords, if you're looking statesmanlike and showing a safe pair of hands dealing the British and our northern brethren it's good for your image. As opposed to making a hames of it and looking like you were made a clown by the brits

charlie14

Bambi wrote: »

It's not so much the issue as the profile it affords, if you're looking statesmanlike and showing a safe pair of hands dealing the British and our northern brethren it's good for your image. As opposed to making a hames of it and looking like you were made a clown by the brits

True, but if the whole "cast iron guarantee" goes pear shaped, (and it is increasingly looking as if it is going that way), then he could look as if he was made a clown off by the Brits and suffer electorally.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

True, but if the whole "cast iron guarantee" goes pear shaped, (and it is increasingly looking as if it is going that way), then he could look as if he was made a clown off by the Brits and suffer electorally.

Doubt it.

More likely that he would look reasonable and statesmanlike while the Brits look clueless and feckless as they have all through the Brexit process. When the question is asked as to what they would have done differently or better, SF and FF will be stuck in response.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Doubt it.

More likely that he would look reasonable and statesmanlike while the Brits look clueless and feckless as they have all through the Brexit process. When the question is asked as to what they would have done differently or better, SF and FF will be stuck in response.

Doubt if SF, FF, Lab or others will be stuck for a response if the "cast iron guarantees" quoted by Varadkar regarding a border fail to materialise.

First question will be :" How was this allowed to happen when we had the publicly stated backing of our EU partners that Brexit talks would not move to Phase 2 unless we were completely satisfied on the issue", accompanied by shouts of spin.

Edward M

A new problem for Leo.
The abortion debate sparking claims of bullying and sexism, even misogyny, even though the claim also dates back a while, it seem to have worsened since Noone was on the oireachtas committee.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-bosses-promise-swift-probe-into-bullying-and-sexism-allegations-36633718.html

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

Well here is somebody who also checked and would not be overly impressed on the accuracy of polls based on their figures prior to the 2016 GE.

The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.

McMurphy

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.

Thats still pretty prevalent here imo , or to be more precise it's more a case of the "anyone but" syndrome.

FF vote collapsed in 2011 - labour increased - FG - increased - SF increased.

FG however still needed a bed partner in labour as (I would suspect) there still wasn't enough ex FF voters that were prepared to vote for them.

Same pattern of 2016.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The polls being different in Jan to a vote in June can be explained by people changing their voting intentions.

There is a lot of that these days compared to when I was growing up when you basically inherited Vote for Dev/Vote for Michael Collins at birth.

Polls between January and June could be explained by people changing their voting intentions, but that was not the case with polls leading up to the GE of 2016.

The GE was held 26th February 2016.
The three polls I posted are from between 17th January 2016 and 23rd February 2016.

In that time the figures for SF, Labour and others varied very little when compared to the GE figures, but the figures for FG and FF were wildly inaccurate over not a January - June 6 month period by a 5 week period.
One just 3 days before the GE.

17th January 2016 B&A : FG 31% FF 20% A difference of 11%
31st January 2016 Red C : FG 29% FF 17% A difference of 12%
23rd February 2016 Red C : FG 30% FF 20% A difference of 10%

26th February 2016 GE : FG 25.5% FF 24.4% A difference of 1.1%

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

The figures for FG and FF were wildly inaccurate over not a January - June 6 month period by a 5 week period.

Bar the top to bottom corruption and inbred gombeenism in FF, there is no difference between FF and FG anymore, so its understandable that the numbers can be fluid for people who did not inherit their voting habits (the way I did).

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bar the top to bottom corruption and inbred gombeenism in FF, there is no difference between FF and FG anymore, so its understandable that the numbers can be fluid for people who did not inherit their voting habits (the way I did).

Good point, but it does not fully explain why those polls were so far out in relation to FG and FF.
If people simply lied to those pollsters such a short time prior to the GE, then it shows just how unreliable these polls can be.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

Good point, but it does not fully explain why those polls were so far out in relation to FG and FF.
If people simply lied to those pollsters such a short time prior to the GE, then it shows just how unreliable these polls can be.

What I am suggesting is that the poll could be right, and people changed their mind.

FG -> FF is just Tweedledum to gombeen Tweedledee.