Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Edward M

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The builds for the elderly, as I understand it, are private developers building homes they will own and rent to the tax payer, with the tax payer funding the HSE amenities, a selling point on these homes. So it's a great deal for the developer with tenants, covered by the tax payer, already in wait. It's fish in a barrel for any developer and not a great deal for the tax payer IMO. The developer getting a stream of money for decades to come, while the tax payer is the willing tenant rather than owner, renting to itself.

The NAMA issue I have is the very people who caused the reason for a NAMA, will be getting loans from NAMA, so they can build private developments and sell at the going market rates, for profit. It's extremely odd to use money recouped at a loss to the state, to fund private profit. This is tax payer money assisting private profit. If they were building and trying to keep prices affordable there might be an argument, to me it's pretty reprehensible that these developers, went bankrupt, the tax payer took the loss and any monies we did retrieve are being in part used to help developers make a profit off the tax payer during a housing crisis.

The councils supplying mortgages is an odd one. I'm familiar with the tenant buying their council home, not so much with this. Even with that simple enough model I know cases, (some years ago) where tenants had failed the stress test and their councilor would have the rules bent to allow them get the mortgage anyway. Be interested to see how those people are coping now, (after their going mad and partying). A government funded mortgage dependent on you not earning over 50,000 a year. Strange bank. It's odd we've money for every scheme it seems, except building state owned social housing.

Came across this thread on the council loan scheme here on boards just now, haven't time to read it now, it might explain it better re how the funding is approved and funded.
A quick scan tells me 200m available this year for it.
https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057832850/38

Edward M

Huge result today for Leo and FG, vindication of his and their stance.
SSM and repeal of the eighth, some seismic social reforms at the hands of FG in the last two govts!

Conservatory

Edward M wrote: »

Huge result today for Leo and FG, vindication of his and their stance.
SSM and repeal of the eighth, some seismic social reforms at the hands of FG in the last two govts!

Yeah it was all fine gaels work. Well done for giving us two popular referendums to look at while scandal after scandal rolled on. Look over here politics.

Idbatterim

I’ll never vote for fg with that smarmy, populist spoofer as head of the party!

Fann Linn

Edward M wrote: »

Huge result today for Leo and FG, vindication of his and their stance.
SSM and repeal of the eighth, some seismic social reforms at the hands of FG in the last two govts!

As party leaders go I thought Mary Lou was getting plenty of plaudits today from all and sundry, including the LP, for her personal stance on the issue.

FreudianSlippers

Fann Linn wrote: »

As party leaders go I thought Mary Lou was getting plenty of plaudits today from all and sundry, including the LP, for her personal stance on the issue.

Between Leo and M'Lou, I know who I'd rather be locked in a room with.

Conservatory

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Between Leo and M'Lou, I know who I'd rather be locked in a room with.

One of them is a better lock picker than the other?

blanch152

Fann Linn wrote: »

As party leaders go I thought Mary Lou was getting plenty of plaudits today from all and sundry, including the LP, for her personal stance on the issue.

Mary Lou and Micheal Martin didn't have their backing of their parties, SF still don't support the 12-week option and FF supporters and TDs are completely split on the issue, so while you have to give both of them credit for personal leadership, they really need to get their parties up to speed.

I feel sorriest for the Labour Party who have led this social revolution with the same-sex marriage revolution, and even Enda Kenny deserves a mention as the man who set up the Citizen's Assembly to drive constitutional change.

Leo, though, has been outstanding in gauging the mood of the country and leading it forward.

Zubeneschamali

blanch152 wrote: »

SF still don't support the 12-week option

The exit poll breakdown said 75% of SF voters voted yes with the 12 week thing as the proposed legislation. They will undoubtedly back Mary Lou at an Ard Fheis.


FF have a much bigger problem. Only 50% of FF voters voted Yes, and most of their Parliamentary Party are for No. They are the one major party where both their voters and their TDs are out of touch. Martin has a real job on his hands preventing the party turning into the grey-haired rural catholic party, which would die in just a few years.


In fairness to him (which I find personally hard to apply), Martin saw this coming. It's why he backed Yes in the face of his party.

blanch152

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The exit poll breakdown said 75% of SF voters voted yes with the 12 week thing as the proposed legislation. They will undoubtedly back Mary Lou at an Ard Fheis.


FF have a much bigger problem. Only 50% of FF voters voted Yes, and most of their Parliamentary Party are for No. They are the one major party where both their voters and their TDs are out of touch. Martin has a real job on his hands preventing the party turning into the grey-haired rural catholic party, which would die in just a few years.


In fairness to him (which I find personally hard to apply), Martin saw this coming. It's why he backed Yes in the face of his party.

Where does the Northern wing of SF stand on abortion?

Zubeneschamali

blanch152 wrote: »

Where does the Northern wing of SF stand on abortion?

Left foot, I think.

Leonard Hofstadter

blanch152 wrote: »

Where does the Northern wing of SF stand on abortion?

I'd say they'd be a lot more conservative than down south.

I'd still expect the party as a whole to back it though.

jimmycrackcorm

Fann Linn wrote:

As party leaders go I thought Mary Lou was getting plenty of plaudits today from all and sundry, including the LP, for her personal stance on the issue.

She had the USP of being the only female party leader.

blanch152

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

She had the USP of being the only female party leader.

Didn't do Joan Burton any good?

markodaly

Next few polls will be interesting but I suspect Leo and FG will be riding high from the result, which will put FF under huge pressure.

They cannot pull out after the next budget as they will not get within an arses roar of government themselves, also it will delay that passing of abortion legislation which would paint them as blockers to the change people want.

They have stated that they are not interested in another confidence and supply agreement but this will force the issue I think. They are in a weak position now, so over the summer expect a lot of back channel and talks to extend it for another two years, until 2020/2021.

FG could of course call one next year themselves and consign Martin to the history bin. McGrath is in a tough spot now to succeed Martin as he was publicly a No voter. FF are officially the socially old conservative party now, something that will take a long time to change.

charlie14

From what I can see for FG the person who is receiving most credit from the public in general is Harris not Varadkar.
Which is somewhat ironic when you consider Harris is the government minister who voted and canvassed for Coveney for FG leader.
I do not know if referendum results carry much weight when it comes to general elections.
The passing of the 34 Amendment which was greeted with the same euphoria as this one didn`t carry much weight in the last GE.
The one thing that is obvious from this referendum campaign is the large pinch of salt that should be attached to polls other than exit polls.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

The one thing that is obvious from this referendum campaign is the large pinch of salt that should be attached to polls other than exit polls.

What? The polls predicted exactly this result, but no-one believed them because Trump/Brexit


https://twitter.com/KeithMillsD7/status/1000311764490358785

James Brown

FF are officially the socially old conservative party now, something that will take a long time to change.

I think the result will bode well, somewhat, for Leo, but I don't think it's seen as a party win, for any party. On that note, it won't change the perception of FG or Leo for many. I think the hard sold image of the progressive young firebrand died after the first few days in office and he was hardly of note pre-leadership. He did talk big mind. He's conservative in policy, British Tory in attitude. I expect FG will do decent enough in any upcoming election.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think the result will bode well, somewhat, for Leo, but I don't think it's seen as a party win, for any party. On that note, it won't change the perception of FG or Leo for many. I think the hard sold image of the progressive young firebrand died after the first few days in office and he was hardly of note pre-leadership. He did talk big mind. He's conservative in policy, British Tory in attitude. I expect FG will do decent enough in any upcoming election.

FG have delivered the same-sex marriage referendum and the repeal the 8th amendment. They will push that achievement with the right voters and Leo is seen as the leader who has done this, despite the fact it was Enda who set up the Constitutional Convention and Labour who insisted on the same-sex marriage referendum.

Zubeneschamali

blanch152 wrote: »

FG have delivered the same-sex marriage referendum and the repeal the 8th amendment. They will push that achievement with the right voters and Leo is seen as the leader who has done this, despite the fact it was Enda who set up the Constitutional Convention and Labour who insisted on the same-sex marriage referendum.

This will not carry into party politics at the GE. Look at Labour - promised SSM, delivered the referendum, won and were promptly destroyed at the very next election.

The only party with a lot at stake is FF - risk of civil war.

Chips Lovell

That's a very good insight.

There may not be winners but there could be losers. This time last year, Micheal Martin seemed to have steadied the ship for Fianna Fail, by halting the slide and checking the challenge of Sinn Fein. Now there's a very real risk of a revitalised Sinn Fein taking their place as one of the two main parties.

FreudianSlippers

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think the result will bode well, somewhat, for Leo, but I don't think it's seen as a party win, for any party. On that note, it won't change the perception of FG or Leo for many. I think the hard sold image of the progressive young firebrand died after the first few days in office and he was hardly of note pre-leadership. He did talk big mind. He's conservative in policy, British Tory in attitude. I expect FG will do decent enough in any upcoming election.

blanch152 wrote: »

FG have delivered the same-sex marriage referendum and the repeal the 8th amendment. They will push that achievement with the right voters and Leo is seen as the leader who has done this, despite the fact it was Enda who set up the Constitutional Convention and Labour who insisted on the same-sex marriage referendum.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This will not carry into party politics at the GE. Look at Labour - promised SSM, delivered the referendum, won and were promptly destroyed at the very next election.

The only party with a lot at stake is FF - risk of civil war.

I agree with most of the above. In terms of pure "fantasy politics" I'd suggest that it might be worth the risk for FG and Leo (in the wake of landslide victories in two progressive referenda) to take the results as a mandate to actually engage in the politics Leo appeared to espouse prior to being made Taoiseach.

FG could really start going for the young progressives and not care too much about alienating their traditional base; those people are never going to vote FF or SF (IMHO) and Renua is the likely candidate to soak up those older ex-FG voters. Mind you, again IMHO, this doesn't impact FG as Renua will never be big enough to seriously challenge and FG would do a deal with Renua quite easily to form a Government.

Zubeneschamali

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Renua is the likely candidate to soak up those older ex-FG voters. Mind you, again IMHO, this doesn't impact FG as Renua will never be big enough to seriously challenge and FG would do a deal with Renua quite easily to form a Government.

You are assuming Renua could win a seat or two.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

FG have delivered the same-sex marriage referendum and the repeal the 8th amendment. They will push that achievement with the right voters and Leo is seen as the leader who has done this, despite the fact it was Enda who set up the Constitutional Convention and Labour who insisted on the same-sex marriage referendum.

I disagree. Many saw Kenny as a caretaker merely keeping the lights on regarding such things already in motion, for the longest time. I would say Leo is better at selling image, but lacks substance and it shows. Harris stole his chance to steal any credit.
The likes of Labour and 'de left' have been championing these things for years, and I don't see them benefiting in any grand way from this. It was the likes of FF and FG kicking the can down the road, eventually, you run out of road.

FreudianSlippers

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You are assuming Renua could win a seat or two.

Not as it stands, but if FG went more progressive they would lose a portion of their base (and let's be honest here... the old people and the Catholic fundamentalists) - I think Renua is the likely run-off for those voters. It's hypothetical of course, as I said, but it's possible.

Matt Barrett

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The likes of Labour and 'de left' have been championing these things for years

Shur, didn’t da left win the Referendum for FG? Ruth Coppinger especially. Great to see them supporting da Gubberment.

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

Shur, didn’t da left win the Referendum for FG? Ruth Coppinger especially. Great to see them supporting da Gubberment.

Leo was indeed complimentary in the Dail about Ruth and Claire Daly.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I disagree. Many saw Kenny as a caretaker merely keeping the lights on regarding such things already in motion, for the longest time. I would say Leo is better at selling image, but lacks substance and it shows. Harris stole his chance to steal any credit.
The likes of Labour and 'de left' have been championing these things for years, and I don't see them benefiting in any grand way from this. It was the likes of FF and FG kicking the can down the road, eventually, you run out of road.

It is delusional to say Kenny was a caretaker, as he was the one who set up the Constitutional Convention, which is now being universally recognised as one of the key reasons the referendum passed. Unlike, for example the Seanad referendum, which didn't pass, there was a long public debate about abortion thanks to the Constitutional Convention which contributed to the changing of minds and the huge margin for change.

I know the hate of Kenny runs deep for some but credit where credit is due.

James Brown

Deleted User wrote: »

Shur, didn’t da left win the Referendum for FG? Ruth Coppinger especially. Great to see them supporting da Gubberment.

No. Your comment makes no sense.

James Brown

blanch152 wrote: »

It is delusional to say Kenny was a caretaker, as he was the one who set up the Constitutional Convention, which is now being universally recognised as one of the key reasons the referendum passed. Unlike, for example the Seanad referendum, which didn't pass, there was a long public debate about abortion thanks to the Constitutional Convention which contributed to the changing of minds and the huge margin for change.

I know the hate of Kenny runs deep for some but credit where credit is due.

You and Mary-Anne miss the point. Many politicians, groups and parties have been calling for this for decades. Credit goes to FG for sure, but it must be noted it took until 2018 because the can was kicked down the road for so long by FF/FG. It would be re-writing history to try sell it like Kenny came along and Leo got it over the line, like the whole movement started with Kenny. Of any prominent political party, I think Labour will be the ones to miss out on their dues in this regard.
Unlike the mess of the HSE, I can't see Leo claiming it was in motion when FG got here