Leo is the new king of Ireland.

BonnieSituation

charlie14 wrote: »

A silly inflammatory statement to make imo.
Looks more like him taking the hump than anything else now that his bullet proof and cast iron guarantee on the border is falling apart.
Said it at the time, talks should never have been allowed to move too Phase 2 before the border issue was resolved.
December was the time to concentrate British minds rather than the mad scamble that is now going on with time growing short.

How is the backstop falling apart?

charlie14

BonnieSituation wrote: »

How is the backstop falling apart?

I do not know if you missed the news of late, but a hard Brexit is looking increasingly likely.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know if you missed the news of late, but a hard Brexit is looking increasingly likely.

Insisting that the withdrawal deal goes into concrete detail about how there will be no border is no use if the UK doesn't sign the deal in the end.

Taytoland

charlie14 wrote: »

zell12 wrote: »

I have to throw this is here too.  We are led by this man!  The spin unit on holiday?

Leo threatens to blockade the nuclear-armed UK airspace!
'The situation at the moment is that the United Kingdom is part of the single European sky, and if they leave the EU they are not and that does mean that if there was a no deal hard Brexit next March the planes would not fly and Britain would be an island in many ways, and that is something that they need to think about.
'You can not have your cake and eat it. You can't take back your waters and then expect to use other people's sky.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...flying-UK.html

A silly inflammatory statement to make imo.
Looks more like him taking the hump than anything else now that his bullet proof and cast iron guarantee on the border is falling apart.
Said it at the time, talks should never have been allowed to move too Phase 2 before the border issue was resolved.
December was the time to concentrate British minds rather than the mad scamble that is now going on with time growing short.

The talks are a con. A deal was never going to happen, ever. It's going to be a no deal and that's it.

Zubeneschamali

Taytoland wrote: »

The talks are a con. A deal was never going to happen, ever. It's going to be a no deal and that's it.

No deal Brexit might last a month, but I'd say about a week is more likely.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Insisting that the withdrawal deal goes into concrete detail about how there will be no border is no use if the UK doesn't sign the deal in the end.

Insisting there would be no movement to Phase 2 when we had the backing from the EU would have had a better chance of securing a deal on the border rather than where we are now.

Taytoland

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

The talks are a con. A deal was never going to happen, ever. It's going to be a no deal and that's it.

No deal Brexit might last a month, but I'd say about a week is more likely.

Once it's past March 29th, that's it. Maybe Varadkar might explain why Irish homes heating has went off.

charlie14

Taytoland wrote: »

The talks are a con. A deal was never going to happen, ever. It's going to be a no deal and that's it.

Increasingly looking that way now. Especially with us now looking to recruit customs officers and veterinarians to patrol a border.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

Insisting there would be no movement to Phase 2 when we had the backing from the EU would have had a better chance of securing a deal on the border rather than where we are now.

How's that?

If the UK exits with no deal, there is no deal.

If we had held up Phase 1 for 7 months, we would still be exactly where we are, looking at a no-deal Brexit next March.

And if the UK cave and make a deal, guess what? It will include no hard border, or no deal.

aroundthehouse

Will Leo find himself out on his ear if there is an election this autumn? or will he do a deal with the devil (mary Lou) just so he can stay in power?

I would typically be an FG voter but I am wondering do I need to be strategic this time around and vote FF (perish the thought) just to make sure SF stay out of power?

Or should I be happy to see SF in power as the minority party where they will be forced to row back on every empty promise they make which, come the following election, will see SF set back 20 years, its easy to shout what the people want to hear from the opposition benches...

BonnieSituation

aroundthehouse wrote: »

Will Leo find himself out on his ear if there is an election this autumn? or will he do a deal with the devil (mary Lou) just so he can stay in power?

I would typically be an FG voter but I am wondering do I need to be strategic this time around and vote FF (perish the thought) just to make sure SF stay out of power?

Or should I be happy to see SF in power as the minority party where they will be forced to row back on every empty promise they make which, come the following election, will see SF set back 20 years, its easy to shout what the people want to hear from the opposition benches...

WHUT?

BonnieSituation

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know if you missed the news of late, but a hard Brexit is looking increasingly likely.

But how is it falling apart?

It's still in place. The UK haven't moved on.

How is that Leo's (or any Irish politician's for that matter) fault?

FWIW I'm perfectly happy for our government to continue along. Very few missteps. Hardly ther fault if you're dealing with the worst Prime Minister and Cabinet since Lloyd-George.

blanch152

aroundthehouse wrote: »

Will Leo find himself out on his ear if there is an election this autumn? or will he do a deal with the devil (mary Lou) just so he can stay in power?

I would typically be an FG voter but I am wondering do I need to be strategic this time around and vote FF (perish the thought) just to make sure SF stay out of power?

Or should I be happy to see SF in power as the minority party where they will be forced to row back on every empty promise they make which, come the following election, will see SF set back 20 years, its easy to shout what the people want to hear from the opposition benches...

There is more chance of FF doing a deal with SF than FG doing one.

Martin will be gone if FF are not the biggest party after the election, he is the only one blocking a deal with SF.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

How's that?

If the UK exits with no deal, there is no deal.

If we had held up Phase 1 for 7 months, we would still be exactly where we are, looking at a no-deal Brexit next March.

And if the UK cave and make a deal, guess what? It will include no hard border, or no deal.

Why would we have been holding up Phase 1 for 7 months?
Britain would have been holding up a possible deal for 7 months based on one issue we had the assurance that would not result in any negotiation moving until the border issue was sorted.
It would have had the effect of concentrating British, and EU minds, to nail down a no border regardless of what form of Brexit took.

aroundthehouse

blanch152 wrote: »

There is more chance of FF doing a deal with SF than FG doing one.

Martin will be gone if FF are not the biggest party after the election, he is the only one blocking a deal with SF.

Do you think? would it not harm FF more than it would FG for FF to go into govnt with SF?

Do you think the next govnt will definitely contain SF? I think Mary Lou is power mad and will do anything to get into govnt, even if it means the long term destruction of her party, she is no different than any of the main party leaders in that her own legacy and power and ministerial pension means more to her than anything else

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

Why would we have been holding up Phase 1 for 7 months?
Britain would have been holding up a possible deal for 7 months based on one issue we had the assurance that would not result in any negotiation moving until the border issue was sorted.
It would have had the effect of concentrating British, and EU minds, to nail down a no border regardless of what form of Brexit took.

One more time: Phase 1 and Phase 2 are about things which will be in the final Withdrawal Agreement.

If the UK do not sign up to any such agreement, it doesn't matter how nailed down the agreement on the border is, since the UK toss the whole agreement, border and all, in the bin.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

There is more chance of FF doing a deal with SF than FG doing one.

Martin will be gone if FF are not the biggest party after the election, he is the only one blocking a deal with SF.

I would not be too sure on that count. There seems to be a bit of cosying up from FG of late and it`s not as if there hasn`t been soundings made by FG in the past on doing a deal according to an ex government minister from your own party, The Greens

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

One more time: Phase 1 and Phase 2 are about things which will be in the final Withdrawal Agreement.

If the UK do not sign up to any such agreement, it doesn't matter how nailed down the agreement on the border is, since the UK toss the whole agreement, border and all, in the bin.

One more time.
If a deal had been properly nailed down in December, as we were assured it would be, and for which we had EU backing, before there would be any movement to Phase 2, the border issue would have been resolved regardless of what form Brexit takes.

blanch152

aroundthehouse wrote: »

Do you think? would it not harm FF more than it would FG for FF to go into govnt with SF?

Do you think the next govnt will definitely contain SF? I think Mary Lou is power mad and will do anything to get into govnt, even if it means the long term destruction of her party, she is no different than any of the main party leaders in that her own legacy and power and ministerial pension means more to her than anything else

FF won't want to be out of power for three successive Dail terms, that is unprecedented. They will do what has to be done to get power.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

I would not be too sure on that count. There seems to be a bit of cosying up from FG of late and it`s not as if there hasn`t been soundings made by FG in the past on doing a deal according to an ex government minister from your own party, The Greens

I voted Green in the last election, and expect to do so in the next, that doesn't make them my "own party".

aroundthehouse

blanch152 wrote: »

FF won't want to be out of power for three successive Dail terms, that is unprecedented. They will do what has to be done to get power.

but not at the cost of decimating the party yet again

blanch152

aroundthehouse wrote: »

but not at the cost of decimating the party yet again

FF will be confident that they can see off SF, after all they have cannibalised an awful lot of smaller parties before, and like Mary Harney before her, Mary-Lou is one of their own.

aroundthehouse

blanch152 wrote: »

FF will be confident that they can see off SF, after all they have cannibalised an awful lot of smaller parties before, and like Mary Harney before her, Mary-Lou is one of their own.

well.... i'm sure she wouldnt take too kindly to calling her a Fianna Faller!

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

One more time.
If a deal had been properly nailed down in December, as we were assured it would be, and for which we had EU backing, before there would be any movement to Phase 2, the border issue would have been resolved regardless of what form Brexit takes.

Once again: you are wrong. If the UK leaves without an agreement, they leave without a border agreement. The EU has no, zero say on what the UK does with their borders if they leave with no agreements, and there was no way to make the UK agree to a border deal in December which would stick if they left with no deal.

No-one assured you that such a border commitment was even possible, because it isn't.

Our only hope is that the no-deal Brexit is so scary that they agree a Withdrawal deal. The EU has stated (and the UK agreed in December) that IF there is a withdrawal deal, it will include no hard border.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

FF won't want to be out of power for three successive Dail terms, that is unprecedented. They will do what has to be done to get power.

They're out of office now for 2 x consecutive terms, also unprecedented.

They didn't want to go in with them last time though, this is a vote for FG or else scare monger

BonnieSituation

aroundthehouse wrote: »

well.... i'm sure she wouldnt take too kindly to calling her a Fianna Faller!

Eh, she was, as was Michael D. People can see sense eventually.

For Forks Sake

aroundthehouse wrote: »

well.... i'm sure she wouldnt take too kindly to calling her a Fianna Faller!

She was a member of FF up until 1998.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

I voted Green in the last election, and expect to do so in the next, that doesn't make them my "own party".

Your political choices are neither here nor there.

What is is that on an issue you yourself raised, according to an ex government minister of the Green Party, the Green`s were approached by FG to act as go-between with SF with a view to forming a coalition government.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Once again: you are wrong. If the UK leaves without an agreement, they leave without a border agreement. The EU has no, zero say on what the UK does with their borders if they leave with no agreements, and there was no way to make the UK agree to a border deal in December which would stick if they left with no deal.

No-one assured you that such a border commitment was even possible, because it isn't.

Our only hope is that the no-deal Brexit is so scary that they agree a Withdrawal deal. The EU has stated (and the UK agreed in December) that IF there is a withdrawal deal, it will include no hard border.

No one assured me that a border commitment was possible!


What was "We have protected what we sought to protect and achieved what we sought to achieve". That it was "rock solid and cast iron"
What was all that about if not a commitment.


Quite simply, we allowed the talks to move to Phase 2 when we had the opportunity to insist on a deal agreed by both the EU and Britain regardless of a soft, hard or anything else in between Brexit, and are now increasingly looking like being left with nothing other than meaningless sound bites and a Taoiseach with egg on his face.

Podge_irl

charlie14 wrote: »

No one assured me that a border commitment was possible!


What was "We have protected what we sought to protect and achieved what we sought to achieve". That it was "rock solid and cast iron"
What was all that about if not a commitment.


Quite simply, we allowed the talks to move to Phase 2 when we had the opportunity to insist on a deal agreed by both the EU and Britain regardless of a soft, hard or anything else in between Brexit, and are now increasingly looking like being left with nothing other than meaningless sound bites and a Taoiseach with egg on his face.

There is a rock solid and cast iron guarantee that there will be absolutely no hard border as part of any post-Brexit agreement.

The idea that the UK would have signed up to an agreement to have no border at all no matter what kind of post-Brexit situation they end up is utterly delusional. And also impossible because they'd just back out of any agreement because if there is no EU deal then they have zero reason to care. A no-deal Brexit is exactly that - one with no deal whatsoever.