Leo is the new king of Ireland.

Podge_irl

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I refer you to what I originally quoted,



There is 'nothing' legally firm anywhere. There is no backstop.

We are, in fact, back to before the oversold December meeting.

How are we back to before the December meeting?

As things stand it is still a requirement of any post-Brexit deal to have the backstop in it. That won't change no matter how much the UK Government bleat and moan about it.

FrancieBrady

Podge_irl wrote: »

How are we back to before the December meeting?

As things stand it is still a requirement of any post-Brexit deal to have the backstop in it. That won't change no matter how much the UK Government bleat and moan about it.

We here on the border didn't know if there would be a hard border in Dec. and we still don't know.

Taytoland

Podge_irl wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I refer you to what I originally quoted,



There is 'nothing' legally firm anywhere. There is no backstop.

We are, in fact, back to before the oversold December meeting.

How are we back to before the December meeting?

As things stand it is still a requirement of any post-Brexit deal to have the backstop in it. That won't change no matter how much the UK Government bleat and moan about it.

But you see a deal isn't going to happen. The EU won't budge on key issues such as freedom of movement, so it's not going to happen. This is a complete waste of time and energy.

Taytoland

Francie put it spot on, show me the legal requirement for a backstop.

Good loser

Sinn Fein major on principles and republicanism.


Last week in the Commons they could have defeated the Tories and stopped the move there towards a hard Brexit.


A hard Brexit could potentially cut our GDP by 8%.



For SF not to lift a finger (where it matters) is nothing short of a treasonous betrayal of their supporters and this republic.


They should be run out of the Dail.

FrancieBrady

Good loser wrote: »

Sinn Fein major on principles and republicanism.


Last week in the Commons they could have defeated the Tories and stopped the move there towards a hard Brexit.


A hard Brexit could potentially cut our GDP by 8%.



For SF not to lift a finger (where it matters) is nothing short of a treasonous betrayal of their supporters and this republic.


They should be run out of the Dail.

SF do exactly what they told their voters and they are treasonous
That is one of the best I have heard yet.

What penalty applies to parties that do the opposite to what they tell their voters? Or who do stuff that destroys GDP?

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF do exactly what they told their voters and they are treasonous
That is one of the best I have heard yet.

What penalty applies to parties that do the opposite to what they tell their voters? Or who do stuff that destroys GDP?

Like when they said they would not surrender?

Like when they said they would not go into a devolved government?

Like when they said that they would not impose social welfare cuts?

Like when they said they would not accept partition?

Like when they said they would not take seats in the Dublin Dail?

Like when they said they would not be part of governing the 26 counties?



All of those "principles" have been ignored by Sinn Fein. They really sound like Fianna Fail who dropped principle after principle until the only principle they had left was that they wouldn't go into coalition, which thy subsequently dropped. FF Nua indeed.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Like when they said they would not surrender?

Like when they said they would not go into a devolved government?

Like when they said that they would not impose social welfare cuts?

Like when they said they would not accept partition?

Like when they said they would not take seats in the Dublin Dail?

Like when they said they would not be part of governing the 26 counties?



All of those "principles" have been ignored by Sinn Fein. They really sound like Fianna Fail who dropped principle after principle until the only principle they had left was that they wouldn't go into coalition, which thy subsequently dropped. FF Nua indeed.

You could write a list like that for any party in Stormont or the Dail.

However, I would contest that there is a difference between principle and general party policies at any given time.
If they decide the time is right to take seats they will no doubt seek a mandate from their electorate to do it, just like they did on the above list.

I will guess that they won't be doing the bidding of FG or FF or any other party supporters.

Good loser

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You could write a list like that for any party in Stormont or the Dail.

However, I would contest that there is a difference between principle and general party policies at any given time.
If they decide the time is right to take seats they will no doubt seek a mandate from their electorate to do it, just like they did on the above list.

I will guess that they won't be doing the bidding of FG or FF or any other party supporters.

They prefer to do the bidding of the DUP and the Tories Hard Brexiters - without being asked (or thanked).

And all for free - munificent generosity to their political enemies.

What's in it for them atall atall?
What's in it for us - the population of Ireland?

FrancieBrady

Good loser wrote: »

They prefer to do the bidding of the DUP and the Tories Hard Brexiters - without being asked (or thanked).

And all for free - munificent generosity to their political enemies.

What's in it for them atall atall?
What's in it for us - the population of Ireland?

Interested in discussing this. But not on a sub SDLP point scoring/whinge basis.

markodaly

FG enjoying a 13 point lead, according to exit polls.
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0721/980224-opinion-poll-fianna-fail-fine-gael/

He must be doing something right, despite the sage's here telling us otherwise.

zell12

markodaly wrote: »

FG enjoying a 13 point lead, according to exit polls.
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0721/980224-opinion-poll-fianna-fail-fine-gael/
He must be doing something right, despite the sage's here telling us otherwise.

There is no credible alternative in the Dáil currently.

Idbatterim

I can’t see fg going much higher. I’d say fg would love any excuse to pull the plug for an election now!

Sierra Oscar

Idbatterim wrote: »

I can’t see fg going much higher. I’d say fg would love any excuse to pull the plug for an election now!

Fine Gael are not far off their record high at this stage. 34% vs the 36% they received in 2011.

Leo must be tempted to go in September / October. There are lots of uncertainties around the corner.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could end up extending their current deal by another year to get us through Brexit. However I reckon there is a chance Brexit could be pushed back a few months to facilitate negotiations to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU. The timing might never be right for Fine Gael.

BonnieSituation

Idbatterim wrote: »

I can’t see fg going much higher. I’d say fg would love any excuse to pull the plug for an election now!

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fine Gael are not far off their record high at this stage. 34% vs the 36% they received in 2011.

Leo must be tempted to go in September / October. There are lots of uncertainties around the corner.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could end up extending their current deal by another year to get us through Brexit. However I reckon there is a chance Brexit could be pushed back a few months to facilitate negotiations to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU. The timing might never be right for Fine Gael.

That's why I'm wondering why he was chatting about delaying til 2020. There are too many variables in play now that he should certainly go ASAP. However the issue of the presidential election means it's unliely to be this year.

I imagine that this is partly the reason that SF are pushing for an election to the Áras with an assumption that if Michael D goes unopposed, Leo might take the opportunity to go to the country instead.

aroundthehouse

Are we looking at an autumn election?

James Brown

St Michael's Estate regeneration plans criticised by FG TD
A Fine Gael Minister has sharply criticised her colleague Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy TD over regeneration plans for her area.

Catherine Byrne, Minister of State for Health Promotion, spoke out against the country’s first large-scale development of cost rental housing.

She was speaking at plans for the long awaited regeneration of St Michael’s estate in Inchicore.

A new proposal would see the construction of 472 housing units, with 330 cost-rental and the remainder social housing.

Minister Murphy, speaking at a public meeting, said cost-rental provided people with rents 15-25% below market value.

The units will be built on public land with low cost loans from the European Investment Bank and renters will only have to pay towards the costs of construction.

They will be available for those on low to middle income, for example couples earning below €75,000 a year.
https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2018/0723/980532-st-michaels-estate-inchicore/

I wasn't sure what 'cost rental' housing was. In this instance, it seems to be a term for houses paid for with an EU loan, to be built by private companies on public land for the Local Authority, then rented(?) to people on low/middle incomes at a lower rate than market who are paying only for the construction?
It seems to be like social housing, but instead of contracting developers to build, they are building and the LA's are purchasing private builds on public land with borrowed monies, we'll need pay back? Are we getting them at cost or paying going rate or was there a price agreed?

It's not clear, "A new proposal would see the construction of 472 housing units, with 330 cost-rental and the remainder social housing." what form the 142 remaining will take, as it is public land currently. The 330 will remain on public land it seems.

I like the idea of the area being used for housing. I don't like the idea that we might be paying through the nose for private builds on public land with borrowed money . Hopefully not the case.
Not sure how or why renters pay for construction?
Anyone any clarification?

As regards Byrne, the locals wanted St. Pat's to get a new stadium, but far from being a champion of those in need of housing, she wants affordable so it can help filter out the riff raff. The irony being that Byrne's estate in the same parish, started out as social housing, a few may still be.

EDIT:
Turns out its going to be a form of social housing with rent based on cost of construction.
Other builds will be social housing with rent based on income. Some elderly units and amenities, which the area badly needs.
Hats off to Eoghan....I said hats off to Eoghan Not social housing, (the preferred deal for the tax payer) but better than a kick in the arse as they say.
Joan Collins had been pushing for this model. In Ireland it's a first of it's kind I believe.
The regeneration has been 17 years in the making. Nice to see public land remain public and used for homes.

Loafing Oaf

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fine Gael are not far off their record high at this stage. 34% vs the 36% they received in 2011.

Leo must be tempted to go in September / October. There are lots of uncertainties around the corner.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could end up extending their current deal by another year to get us through Brexit. However I reckon there is a chance Brexit could be pushed back a few months to facilitate negotiations to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU. The timing might never be right for Fine Gael.

A general election would only be beneficial to Fine Gael if they were in a position afterward to form a government not dependent on the support of either FF or FG. Even picking up 15 or so seats would probably not change this fundamental arithmetic, given their most likely coalition partners Labour could well be down to one or two seats. So FG are likely to hold off the election as long as there is any prospect of further gains in the polls.

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

A general election would only be beneficial to Fine Gael if they were in a position afterward to form a government not dependent on the support of either FF or FG. Even picking up 15 or so seats would probably not change this fundamental arithmetic, given their most likely coalition partners Labour could well be down to one or two seats. So FG are likely to hold off the election as long as there is any prospect of further gains in the polls.

I agree. At 34%, it is four or five percentage points too low. At 38-39%, they could be picking up 45% of the seats, and just need Labour, Greens and a few independents for a majority. That would be seen by FG as an ideal outcome, and I would bet they would willingly pay a big enough price in policy terms for that coalition.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

I agree. At 34%, it is four or five percentage points too low. At 38-39%, they could be picking up 45% of the seats, and just need Labour, Greens and a few independents for a majority. That would be seen by FG as an ideal outcome, and I would bet they would willingly pay a big enough price in policy terms for that coalition.

An ideal outcome would be seen as needing a ragtag bunch of otherwise irrelevant party's and tds to prop you up

Remind me how many seats the greens have?

Labour?

What do you see on the horizon that would appeal to the public that may increase there seats?

Labour have gone full rogue ref Frances Fitzgerald in the eyes of FG supporter's surely, and the greens are an obscurity.

The independent alliance are doing a great job though. They have been well bought.

Loafing Oaf

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

An ideal outcome would be seen as needing a ragtag bunch of otherwise irrelevant party's and tds to prop you up

Not ideal but the best FG can realistically hope for under the circumstances. The ideal as it would be presumably for all parties is a comfortable overall majority, but that's not going to happen. And neither is the next best thing, a coalition with a like-minded smaller centre/right party.

And tbh the mooted coalition with Lab/Greens/SDs/whoever is only just about realistic; everything will have to go right for FG to reach the required numbers...

blanch152

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

An ideal outcome would be seen as needing a ragtag bunch of otherwise irrelevant party's and tds to prop you up

Remind me how many seats the greens have?

Labour?

What do you see on the horizon that would appeal to the public that may increase there seats?

Labour have gone full rogue ref Frances Fitzgerald in the eyes of FG supporter's surely, and the greens are an obscurity.

The independent alliance are doing a great job though. They have been well bought.

Realistically, the best achievable outcome for FG is the relegation of both FF and SF to the opposition benches for the course of the next Dail. That will mean finding support from somewhere else.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Realistically, the best achievable outcome for FG is the relegation of both FF and SF to the opposition benches for the course of the next Dail. That will mean finding support from somewhere else.

That is the kind of thinking that would encourage voters to vote for even more independents with very expensive shopping lists for their local area.



Auction politics from a party that berated FF in the past for doing the same.

Zubeneschamali

Idbatterim wrote: »

I can’t see fg going much higher. I’d say fg would love any excuse to pull the plug for an election now!

Worrying for Martin and FF - I'd say they went in to the current arrangement assuming that FG would continue to slide in the polls as 2008 is forgotten and FG get the blame for current events.

Hitman3000

Polls are traditionally very good for government parties during the summer/holiday months. FG failings on housing/health will be front and centre during an election. Even when FF screwed up FG couldn't manage a majority. No one trust's them enough.

markodaly

The only game in town at the moment is a FG led government on those numbers.
Even at those numbers, FF and SF will not have an overall majority and will need some more indo's added to the mix. It will be dynamite.

I think Labour and the Greens will do better next time out and the Indo's and PBP/AAA will do worse.

markodaly

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Even when FF screwed up FG couldn't manage a majority. No one trust's them enough.

Well, they were 6 TD's short and well on their way until Labour got desperate and went onto the attack with their promises. They over promised, as to not get left behind in the formation of a new government and paid the price at the next election.

Remember, Bertie didn't manage an overall majority at all through the Celtic Tiger. The last time we had an overall majority was the infamous 1977 election. So, I am not sure why we benchmark success or failure by that measure when we have had minority or coalition governments for the past 41 years. In other words it's a stupid argument.

blanch152

Hitman3000 wrote: »

Polls are traditionally very good for government parties during the summer/holiday months. FG failings on housing/health will be front and centre during an election. Even when FF screwed up FG couldn't manage a majority. No one trust's them enough.

Nobody is remotely suggesting a FG majority. That is a complete red herring.

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

That is the kind of thinking that would encourage voters to vote for even more independents with very expensive shopping lists for their local area.



Auction politics from a party that berated FF in the past for doing the same.

Why?

There are two ways the election could go.

People will be looking at the things that have improved and giving FG a chance to continue the work.

People will be looking at the things that haven't improved and will look at whether SF or FF would do better.

The challenge for SF and FF will be to demonstrate that they could do better. The problem will be that some voters will ask why they didn't vote down the wrong things that FG did when they had the numbers to do so for the last three years. There is no easy answer for the opposition parties to that question and it plays into FG's hands. What will be even more difficult for them is if FG comes under pressure for not delivering something it promised and it points to the opposition parties as the reason.

Does the opposition have power without responsibility? Well for them, if so.

Zubeneschamali

blanch152 wrote: »

People will be looking at the things that have improved and giving FG a chance to continue the work.

People will be looking at the things that haven't improved and will look at whether SF or FF would do better.

This is not the way any election has gone in my lifetime.

Some people vote FF, like their father and grandfather. Some people vote FG, likewise. Some people (especially young people who reject their parents views) vote SF. Some people vote for someone who fixes potholes locally.

And then there is a cohort who vote against the Government.

The result is that the Government are usually chucked out and the opposition get in.