Off Topic Thread 4.0

prawnsambo

Neil3030 wrote: »

Things in the U.S. are going to get terrifyingly bad. I read a projection yesterday that 1.6m Americans will die (assuming 50% contraction and 1% mortality).

They had no testing, didn’t identify focal outbreaks, didn’t quarantine entire cities early and it's now diffuse. The whole country is the cruise ship. The numbers just aren't yet in the public.

Europe will soon be reversing this travel ban.

And apparently there are still Facebook posts there saying it's a Democrat hoax. Imagine the thought process that comes up with this stuff. :mad:

bilston

prawnsambo wrote: »

And apparently there are still Facebook posts there saying it's a Democrat hoax. Imagine the thought process that comes up with this stuff. :mad:

The thought process is probably in Russian

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

The thought process is probably in Russian

That place that seems to have absolutely no outbreak? Yeah, quite likely.

Neil3030

prawnsambo wrote: »

And apparently there are still Facebook posts there saying it's a Democrat hoax. Imagine the thought process that comes up with this stuff. :mad:

How soon before the propaganda does a complete u-turn and they instead convince themselves this deadly virus, which disproportionately kills older men, was developed by hate-fuelled liberals to stop Trump getting re-elected by wiping out his core vote?

Zzippy

Neil3030 wrote: »

How soon before the propaganda does a complete u-turn and they instead convince themselves this deadly virus, which disproportionately kills older men, was developed by hate-fuelled liberals to stop Trump getting re-elected by wiping out his core vote?

FFS Neil, stop writing their policies for them!

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

How soon before the propaganda does a complete u-turn and they instead convince themselves this deadly virus, which disproportionately kills older men, was developed by hate-fuelled liberals to stop Trump getting re-elected by wiping out his core vote?

You make an interesting point though.

Does this not entirely change the narrative around the next election?

How are two 70+ year old men going to go toe to toe through a national campaign without the risk of getting the virus? What if one has had it and the other hasn't - will that impact how people vote?

Neil3030

Deleted User wrote: »

You make an interesting point though.

Does this not entirely change the narrative around the next election?

How are two 70+ year old men going to go toe to toe through a national campaign without the risk of getting the virus? What if one has had it and the other hasn't - will that impact how people vote?

Markets are currently pricing it at ~9% likely that the democratic candidate will be neither Biden nor Saunders, and I think the point you raise is a large factor in that.

Trump is less at risk, as he is a complete germophobe and prefers the rally style, speeches from the stage type interaction with his support.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The contract is worthless to be honest, they can let you go day 1 as you are on probation.

Speak to them, make sure that there is no risk to your role and if there is ask them to give you plenty of notice.

I did ask, have been told there's no change in circumstances but it doesn't really give me much reassurance, we don't know what the situation will be like in 3 weeks at all.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

It is beyond me how the American people suffer this simpleton. And it's not just his substantial stupidity - he's intensely mean spirited. There is absolutely nothing redemptive about him. He happily uses a genuine world health crisis (which he has completely reneged his responsibility on) to further his racist, hard-right anti immigration agenda.

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1238198998802010112?s=20

Can't help but agree. Saw this reported last night. If it's true, he's invited untold misery on countless people's lives to further his own position. It's the complete antithesis of leadership.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1238216578161926145

aloooof

aloooof wrote: »

Can't help but agree. Saw this reported last night. If it's true, he's invited untold misery on countless people's lives to further his own position. It's the complete antithesis of leadership.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1238216578161926145

US media is so blatantly bought and sold that I don't know who to believe

Former Former

[Deleted User] wrote: »

US media is so blatantly bought and sold that I don't know who to believe

NPR is about as close to impartiality as you'll get.

But that story is eminently believable

Neil3030

That'd surely be the end of him, if true. We are literally talking about 100s of thousands, if not millions of Americans dying. Forget impeachment, he'd possibly be facing Federal capital punishment.

Sloane Nutritious Ham

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

I did ask, have been told there's no change in circumstances but it doesn't really give me much reassurance, we don't know what the situation will be like in 3 weeks at all.

You are unfortunately correct. I would definitely say the way to deal with it though is to communicate very honestly - let them know that if their circumstances change and they are no longer progressing with the role that you will understand - but that the most important thing for your sake is as much advanced notice as possible.

If you run into any difficulty with it and want some advice send me a PM. Deal with this sort of thing a lot and happy to help.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

That'd surely be the end of him, if true. We are literally talking about 100s of thousands, if not millions of Americans dying. Forget impeachment, he'd possibly be facing Federal capital punishment.

I don't see why this would be the end of him vs anything else he has or hasn't done.

Deleted User wrote: »

You are unfortunately correct. I would definitely say the way to deal with it though is to communicate very honestly - let them know that if their circumstances change and they are no longer progressing with the role that you will understand - but that the most important thing for your sake is as much advanced notice as possible.

If you run into any difficulty with it and want some advice send me a PM. Deal with this sort of thing a lot and happy to help.

Thanks, hopefully won't come to it so will give you a shout if necessary. They're a very large company so they aren't going to be stuck for cash or struggling to pay staff or anything, so might get in touch with them again next week.

b.gud

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

I don't see why this would be the end of him vs anything else he has or hasn't done.

Yeah this is the way I'd see it too. I mean it should be the end of him but it's about the 5th thing he's done in his presidency that should be the end of him not counting the countless dumb/dangerous things that just fell short of that bar

Buer

It won't matter a jot. This is a guy who made fun of a disabled person live on camera. A man who attacked a revered war hero. Someone who claimed the last president was not American. He made vulgar comments regarding women which were recorded.

It does not matter what he says or does. He's close to being locked in for the second term. The Republicans control the senate and the judiciary. He's bulletproof from any scandals. It's at the point where any scandal or bombshell can be met with a big fat "So what?"

Neil3030

Please tell me you all understand the difference between acts such as 'saying mean things' and 'causing lots of people to die'?!

Sloane Nutritious Ham

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

I don't see why this would be the end of him vs anything else he has or hasn't done.

He has very publicly made his bed downplaying this pandemic, referring to it in a dismissive way and refusing to follow the advice of the medical community. If there is a significant death toll he will find it extremely difficult to distance himself from those remarks. The thing about populists is that when they do eventually piss off their closest supporters those people become their biggest critics. Bolsonaro in Brazil called the virus a fantasy and now he is infected - this virus is cutting through right wing bull**** and damaging their credibility before going on to make their supporters sick. It will absolutely change the political landscape, this will make left wing politics quite popular again but could also be hijacked by anti immigration movements like Trump is trying to do.

The finger pointing between China and the US is worrying though and Trump is likely to get very desperate for a distraction in the weeks ahead.

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

They're a very large company so they aren't going to be stuck for cash or struggling to pay staff or anything, so might get in touch with them again next week.

Yeah I've heard nothing from any firms or organisations about cutting headcount or recruitment freezes. I'm anticipating it may happen, but right now the sentiment is very much to whether this as best as possible and try and keep a base level of activity while the country bunkers.

Buer

Buer wrote: »

He's close to being locked in for the second term

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

I'm open minded to the possibility of him winning again - but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that it is likely based on current electoral math.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Please tell me you all understand the difference between acts such as 'saying mean things' and 'causing lots of people to die'?!

We're not the people who need to be convinced.

And cutting off your nose to spite your face is the Republican way. They tried to take health insurance away from tens of millions of Americans, that definitely falls into the 'causing lots of people to die' bracket but it isn't going to do him much harm either.

Squidgy Black

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

I'm open minded to the possibility of him winning again - but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that it is likely based on current electoral math.

Warren and Buttigieg are gone from the race, Biden is older than Trump too so the coronavirus angle doesn't really apply.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

The finger pointing between China and the US is worrying though and Trump is likely to get very desperate for a distraction in the weeks ahead.

That's something I hadn't considered and is pretty worrying...

Deleted User wrote: »

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

Is it also not the case that the coronavirus will disproportionately kill more of his electorate than the Democrat nomination? That's my impression, but I'm no expert on the demographics.

Squidgy Black

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Warren and Buttigieg are gone from the race, Biden is older than Trump too so the coronavirus angle doesn't really apply.

I'm just pointing out that you need to go deep into the dem field of candidates to find one who is polling in a way that would make Trump look competitive.

Also - the people who don't like him, despise him, and dem turnout has been repeatedly strong since 2016.

aloooof wrote: »

Is it also not the case that the coronavirus will disproportionately kill more of his electorate than the Democrat nomination? That's my impression, but I'm no expert on the demographics.

It's going to kill a lot of people regardless of who they will vote for, healthcare just become the number 1 issues in the 2020 US elections.

Buer

Deleted User wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa. It's also pretty much level between him and Biden in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Some polls have Trump comfortably ahead in Wisconsin.

Maybe a lock was a stretch but he's absolutely the frontrunner. Biden is very likely to be the candidate running against him and I don't see him getting people out to vote. I've seen the demise of Trump being forecast on here and elsewhere so many times over the past few years. The mid terms will topple him. The impeachment will topple him. It's false dawn after false dawn.

Also, that's a massive, massive "If" on Republicans embracing the election interference. They've ignored every indiscretion/offence thus far; I don't see why that's going to change. The Republican base is a cult more than a political party.

Podge_irl

Not sure polls taken before the candidates are confirmed are all that informative. Ultimately he didn't win by very much and it wouldn't take very much to reverse the result - and this against one of the few people disliked as much as he is. I don't understand how anyone could even see him as a strong favourite.

swiwi_

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I keep seeing this sentiment and don't know where it's coming from.

If the Republicans fully embrace complete election interference then all bets are off - but the reality is that Trump is a very significant margin behind all of Biden, Warren, Buttigeig, Harris and a number of other Democratic options in swing states. He can't retake the Presidency without those states and they've definitely turned their back on him.

The Coronavirus is also not good news for him. Apart from his age, it's going to kill the one thing he has going for him with moderates - the economy.

I'm open minded to the possibility of him winning again - but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that it is likely based on current electoral math.

Maths Venjur. Unless you’re American yourself?!

Buer

Buer wrote: »

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa. It's also pretty much level between him and Biden in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Some polls have Trump comfortably ahead in Wisconsin.

Maybe a lock was a stretch but he's absolutely the frontrunner. Biden is very likely to be the candidate running against him and I don't see him getting people out to vote. I've seen the demise of Trump being forecast on here and elsewhere so many times over the past few years. The mid terms will topple him. The impeachment will topple him. It's false dawn after false dawn.

Also, that's a massive, massive "If" on Republicans embracing the election interference. They've ignored every indiscretion/offence thus far; I don't see why that's going to change. The Republican base is a cult more than a political party.

If it's 'pretty much level' in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania then it's also pretty much level in Florida.

Squidgy Black

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

Squidgy Black

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

I was in my local Tesco earlier too (I was not bulk buying toilet roll, I swear) and it was probably busier than usual for the time of the morning but there wasn't a huge mob of people, shelves weren't empty, etc. Generally it was grand.

b.gud

Squidgy Black wrote: »

Went up to the local Tesco there on my lunch break. Plenty of bread and most shelves were full. This is the same place that had to pull down the shutters yesterday evening due to people trying to bull rush the place and people collapsing at tills etc.

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

I was in my local Tesco earlier too (I was not bulk buying toilet roll, I swear) and it was probably busier than usual for the time of the morning but there wasn't a huge mob of people, shelves weren't empty, etc. Generally it was grand.

I wonder is this because of people copping on and realising that there's not going to be a lockdown on the food supply and that stores will have sufficient supplies for the foreseeable future, hopefully

Or that so many people went out buying like lunatics yesterday that there isn't as much demand today, unfortunately probably the most likely case

Stheno

President of Brazil who had dinner with Trump last week has tested positive for Covid 19

Squidgy Black

b.gud wrote: »

I wonder is this because of people copping on and realising that there's not going to be a lockdown on the food supply and that stores will have sufficient supplies for the foreseeable future, hopefully

Or that so many people went out buying like lunatics yesterday that there isn't as much demand today, unfortunately probably the most likely case

I think retail excellence and other groups coming out and stating that the supply chains weren't affected yet had a positive effect, for example during the snow storm there wasn't much media attention in terms of saying it was completely unwarranted because the stock is there etc

Dave_The_Sheep

As much as I'd like to agree with Venjur, I have zero faith in US politics, or the people of the US as a whole. Regardless of it potentially being rigged (Replublicans know that in a fair fight they lose every time, so why fight fair?) I fully expect the ginger tosser to be re-elected.

Zzippy

Stheno wrote: »

President of Brazil who had dinner with Trump last week has tested positive for Covid 19

It's the hope that gets you...

Podge_irl

Buer wrote: »

Trump is ahead in some of the key swing stages including Florida and Iowa.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were the 3 closest results and enough to swing the overall outcome. Can not realistically see anywhere he lost swapping across. Florida and Iowa would confirm a strong Dem win rather than being key swing states.

20 new cases today. I think that's fewer than yesterday which surely is a good thing.

prawnsambo

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

20 new cases today. I think that's fewer than yesterday which surely is a good thing.

Yeah, 27 yesterday. Very good news if it continues like that.

Neil3030

Does anyone have an estimate on how many tests Ireland is doing per day?

prawnsambo

A Canadian team has isolated the virus. That's big from the point of view of testing and developing treatments. As well as a vaccine obviously.

Squidgy Black

Neil3030 wrote: »

Does anyone have an estimate on how many tests Ireland is doing per day?

The last figure that was posted was around 4-500 per day and they're saying they'll ramp testing up further soon

Neil3030

Squidgy Black wrote: »

The last figure that was posted was around 4-500 per day and they're saying they'll ramp testing up further soon

Thanks.

So ~100 tests per million.

Puts us ahead of Japan but behind the UK.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

bilston

Neil3030 wrote: »

Thanks.

So ~100 tests per million.

Puts us ahead of Japan but behind the UK.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/21108/covid-19-tests-performed-per-million-of-the-population/

Think the UK was going to increase tests to 10k per day...however the latest guidance is that unless you have severe symptoms then you don't need to get tested, just sit at home for a week if you have minor symptoms, so in other words a lot of people in the UK will get it and not even know for sure they've had it.

That's why the confirmed cases number is never going to be remotely accurate.

Burkie1203

Some media reporting trump had contracted covid19

Squidgy Black

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Some media reporting trump had contracted covid19

I've seen reports that there was a second person who visited Mar-a-Lago last weekend who's after testing positive, so that's two people he was in close contact with at a minimum who've had it.

Neil3030

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

It doesn't matter if he goes around the country personally infecting people with the coronavirus, they'll thank him for it and vote for him in November. He is not finished. He should have been finished during the primaries and he should have been finished a dozen times since but he isn't. Nothing is new in that article, it's all correct but Trump has shown nothing here that he hasn't shown time and time again in the past.

Neil3030

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

It doesn't matter if he goes around the country personally infecting people with the coronavirus, they'll thank him for it and vote for him in November. He is not finished. He should have been finished during the primaries and he should have been finished a dozen times since but he isn't. Nothing is new in that article, it's all correct but Trump has shown nothing here that he hasn't shown time and time again in the past.

I think you're underestimating just how much of a **** show awaits the US right now. Nothing he has said or done comes close to the direct harm that will be inflicted by hundreds of thousands of avoidable deaths of US citizens. Nothing ANY president has said or done will come close to it.

My biggest fear is actually that he'll have one last asinine play with the military to try create a distraction.

Former Former

Neil3030 wrote: »

He's finished. Summed up perfectly here: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

I think you'd be demoralised to know just how few Americans pay any close attention to the news.

Trump will find a way to spin this, Facebook will kick in and he'll romp home.

errlloyd

Trump may weasel out of this, but I do appreciate him putting Mike Pence in direct control.

We'll lose at least one of them.

In a few weeks time we could have the basis for a solid sci fi series. Those who have had covid-19 will be able to go back to normal life while the rest of us still cower. It will be a two tier society, the covideer's who are enjoying all life has to offer and the no-covo's who still have to social distance.

Calls of "Lol wash your hands pleb" whenever a group of covideer's see someone sporting a face mask.