Off Topic Thread 4.0

Squidgy Black

errlloyd wrote: »

The second sentence is the good one. 60% 90% percent improved. or if inverted it means that 40% of people had lunch problems previously now only 10% do. A huge result for what could be the biggest burden on medical resources.

I've been having awful lunch problems since I've started wfh, need to do a proper shop soon.

aloooof

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Chinese have reported that they've had very good success rates treating people with a Japanese developed flu treatment.

Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug

That could go a very long way towards alleviating pressure on the health service, reducing the time someone needs to remain in hospital by over 60%.

prawnsambo

aloooof wrote: »

That could go a very long way towards alleviating pressure on the health service, reducing the time someone needs to remain in hospital by over 60%.

There are some wrinkles however. It needs approval (a sort of change of use type) and the best results were achieved when administered early in the infection before the virus multiplied. Still a very useful development.

pickarooney

Apparently there's another, different, avian flu spreading across China and The Philippines now

prawnsambo

pickarooney wrote: »

Apparently there's another, different, avian flu spreading across China and The Philippines now

Headline: "Human activity is destroying life on earth"

Earth: "Hold my petri-dish".

irishbucsfan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Tom Brady's association with the Patriots are no more. It's going to be odd watching Brady line out for the Buccaneers.

What does our resident bucsfan think?

I used to work in his hometown, where he is not very well liked, so I can’t wait to put up loads of picture of me going round the gaff in a Brady jersey

stephen_n

Possibly the funniest thing I’ve seen today.

https://twitter.com/dodoutofcontext/status/1240011424593842178?s=21

pickarooney

pickarooney wrote: »

Apparently there's another, different, avian flu spreading across China and The Philippines now

In birds only so far, to be clear.

stephen_n

I know people turn to faith in times of trouble, but this shows how faith is blind, deaf, dumb and stupid.

At least in my neck of the woods people are taking this all very seriously and responsibly. Total social distancing being practiced, even by most kids. Went into Dunnes yesterday, everyone compliant and going about their business, no hoarding or massive queues everyone keeping plenty of distance and being patient. Few teenagers clearly not caring in the slightest but otherwise impressive social coordination.

If everywhere else is the same and we can keep this up we'll be fine through this. The economy will have to be figured out but our death toll may not escalate to that which other countries are experiencing.

Friend of my aunt passed away from it. In her 70's in Seattle which is the hardest hit place in the states.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Friend of my aunt passed away from it. In her 70's in Seattle which is the hardest hit place in the states.

I've a good few friends in America and by all accounts they weren't taking this seriously at all. Turning point seemed to come just before last weekend when the penny dropped and of course now it's turned into complete panic.

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

I've a good few friends in America and by all accounts they weren't taking this seriously at all. Turning point seemed to come just before last weekend when the penny dropped and of course now it's turned into complete panic.

same happening across the water.....

no surprise considering whos leading

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I've a good few friends in America and by all accounts they weren't taking this seriously at all. Turning point seemed to come just before last weekend when the penny dropped and of course now it's turned into complete panic.

It's utterly indefensible from trump. Usually I can understand the republican point of view to a degree but not this time. He's literally directly caused the blasé attitude over the past few months. What the **** were him and his cabinet trying to do. Even threw in some racist connotations for good measure.

Buer

Orals and practicals to be given full marks in the Leaving Cert. Is this not madness?

Imagine you're doing Irish, French and Home Economics for the exams. You've just scored 25% from a possible 25% in 3 exams. Then you've people just taking Irish, Chemistry and History who are all about the written paper and at a disadvantage in the points race. Am I missing something here?

Squidgy Black

Buer wrote: »

Orals and practicals to be given full marks in the Leaving Cert. Is this not madness?

Imagine you're doing Irish, French and Home Economics for the exams. You've just scored 25% from a possible 25% in 3 exams. Then you've people just taking Irish, Chemistry and History who are all about the written paper and at a disadvantage in the points race. Am I missing something here?

The only thing I can think of is that most schools require you to take a second language in French/Spanish/German etc as well as a science, so Physics/Chemistry/Biology will all have mandatory experiments that presumably will be given full grades.

But surely it'd make more sense to just make the written papers 100% of the grade?

Dave_The_Sheep

Deleted User wrote: »

What the **** were him and his cabinet trying to do. Even threw in some racist connotations for good measure.

Get Trump re-elected. That's all it is at it's core. They don't give a **** about anything else, just keeping themselves (Republicans) in power and the money that goes with it.

Stop people from thinking Trump is weak. That he always has the best plan. Don't worry (except about the migrants and foreigners!), go to work, don't let this affect the economy in an election year.

"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" seems to be the internal rallying call of both Trump and Johnson's lot in reaction to this.

The Lost Sheep

Buer wrote: »

Orals and practicals to be given full marks in the Leaving Cert. Is this not madness?

Imagine you're doing Irish, French and Home Economics for the exams. You've just scored 25% from a possible 25% in 3 exams. Then you've people just taking Irish, Chemistry and History who are all about the written paper and at a disadvantage in the points race. Am I missing something here?

total madness and skews points system in future years moat likely.

As I'm out of work for foreseeable future I'm helping out at a local pharmacy just helping limit numbers going in the doors. I've had so much work cancelled but at least I'm not going on social welfare.

swiwi_

I'm wondering if govts might need to turn to partial herd immunity?

At the moment, the plan is isolate and wait for a vaccine and/or the virus to fade away.
The worst case scenario is isolate, cases die down, ban lifted, virus takes off again, back to square one.

Since the death rate is negligible in healthy youngish people, maybe they should have lockdown for anyone over 60 and/or in poor health and/or living with such people, and let the rest of the population get back to being productive. This group will pick up the virus, won't die, and will then be immune, protecting the more vulnerable in turn.

sydthebeat

Seems the "indigenous" population of rathkeale are boozing it up in pubs while the rest of the responsible population adhere to social distancing advice

Stheno

sydthebeat wrote: »

Seems the "indigenous" population of rathkeale are boozing it up in pubs while the rest of the responsible population adhere to social distancing advice

That's called self selection, no?

sydthebeat

Stheno wrote: »

That's called self selection, no?

No difference to their normal day to day then

Utah_Saint

swiwi_ wrote: »

I'm wondering if govts might need to turn to partial herd immunity?

At the moment, the plan is isolate and wait for a vaccine and/or the virus to fade away.
The worst case scenario is isolate, cases die down, ban lifted, virus takes off again, back to square one.

Since the death rate is negligible in healthy youngish people, maybe they should have lockdown for anyone over 60 and/or in poor health and/or living with such people, and let the rest of the population get back to being productive. This group will pick up the virus, won't die, and will then be immune, protecting the more vulnerable in turn.

Yes I've mused over this. Lockdown for 3-6 months, economy damaged and children's education halted. Lockdown lifted and the country is reinfected, back to lockdown and irreversible economic damage.

The true infected figure is much much higher than reported. The figures on the news are only tested cases. So the mortality rate is also lower than the 2-5% reported.

Utah_Saint

I should also add. In the UK between 2012-2019 120000 deaths are directly liked to Gov austerity measures...and this is while the economy was growing.

aloooof

swiwi_ wrote: »

I'm wondering if govts might need to turn to partial herd immunity?

At the moment, the plan is isolate and wait for a vaccine and/or the virus to fade away.
The worst case scenario is isolate, cases die down, ban lifted, virus takes off again, back to square one.

Since the death rate is negligible in healthy youngish people, maybe they should have lockdown for anyone over 60 and/or in poor health and/or living with such people, and let the rest of the population get back to being productive. This group will pick up the virus, won't die, and will then be immune, protecting the more vulnerable in turn.

I guess part of the idea is to buy time? While unlikely to have a vaccine in time for the peak, it seems like new drug treatments are being suggested and showing good results pretty regularly.

It's also buying time to ramp up production of these medicines and ventilators etc.

swiwi_

swiwi_ wrote: »

I'm wondering if govts might need to turn to partial herd immunity?

At the moment, the plan is isolate and wait for a vaccine and/or the virus to fade away.
The worst case scenario is isolate, cases die down, ban lifted, virus takes off again, back to square one.

Since the death rate is negligible in healthy youngish people, maybe they should have lockdown for anyone over 60 and/or in poor health and/or living with such people, and let the rest of the population get back to being productive. This group will pick up the virus, won't die, and will then be immune, protecting the more vulnerable in turn.

#flattenthecurve

swiwi_

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

#flattenthecurve

Don’t need to flatten the curve for the healthy population.

Edit: In fact, you want them infected (and hence immunised subsequently) as fast as possible. Just need to have enough ICU capacity for the small percentage of the low-risk population that turn bad.

ClanofLams

Have heard Eamon Ryan speak well before but listening to him now, he’s off his rocker. Speech is like something you would hear down the pub, keep hardware stores open so people can paint their house, could we not have organised leaving cert orals on Skype etc (60,000 exams on skype organised in few weeks- would inevitably be disaster).

Detached from reality.

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

Don’t need to flatten the curve for the healthy population.

Edit: In fact, you want them infected (and hence immunised subsequently) as fast as possible. Just need to have enough ICU capacity for the small percentage of the low-risk population that turn bad.

That doesn’t reflect what’s happening. In Italy they are prioritizing the young over the old in ICU. It’s not as if the young aren’t seriously impacted by this, they are but they’re more likely to survive. Even at that there is residual permanent damage to the lungs in those who recover. Trying to manage the amount of people in ICU in any given time is a far more sensible policy, than feck it let’s build herd immunity.

Do we even know if herd immunity is a thing that works in this case?

errlloyd

swiwi_ wrote: »

Don’t need to flatten the curve for the healthy population.

Edit: In fact, you want them infected (and hence immunised subsequently) as fast as possible. Just need to have enough ICU capacity for the small percentage of the low-risk population that turn bad.

I said vaguely this a few days ago.

errlloyd wrote: »

I am not confident in our strategy. I really struggle to understand it.

As far as I can make out, it is this.

EDIT - Tomtom has provided more accurate numbers on the amount of beds available. They significantly change the picture on my maths. Tomtom has also outlined another end goal - ie treatment drugs that would greatly reduce the burden on HSE resources that are not vaccines but will be coming soon

• We only have around 300 ICU beds / ventillators (I think we may have more of the latter, but they are being used interchangebly)
• 5% of people will need a ventillator - and will need it for between 1 week and 3 weeks.
• So if there are 300 ventillators being used 2 weeks at a time, on average there will be 20ish "made available" per day.
• That twenty is 5% of the maximum daily infection rate we can have (20 *0.05 = 400) so our daily rate has to be 400
• For us to naturally get "herd immunity" we have to wait till half the population - around 2.2 million of us get it.
• 2.2m / 400 = 5,500 days or 15 years of isolation.

So at the moment, our strategy seems to be - keep everyone at home until someone invents a vaccine? I am beginning to wonder (quietly) should a few of us be "chicken poxxing it". Getting it intentionally. You don't get lifetime immunity, but in almost all cases you seem to get strong short term immunity.

I sort of wonder is there a way we can begin infecting a cohort of healthy people. Turn that new resort in Longford into an infection zone. Anyone who thinks they are perfectly safe to get it heads in there and can't leave till they are clean. A few ventillators on standby for the few in that healthy cohort that do have underlying and unknown conditions.

I think I'd sign up.

Former Former

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

Do we even know if herd immunity is a thing that works in this case?

In theory, yes, but it would take so long to achieve it that the number of deaths that would happen along the way that it doesn't bear thinking about.

swiwi_

stephen_n wrote: »

That doesn’t reflect what’s happening. In Italy they are prioritizing the young over the old in ICU. It’s not as if the young aren’t seriously impacted by this, they are but they’re more likely to survive. Even at that there is residual permanent damage to the lungs in those who recover. Trying to manage the amount of people in ICU in any given time is a far more sensible policy, than feck it let’s build herd immunity.

But if there is no vaccination and no herd immunity, is your plan to simply close down the country for months on end and hope it all works out??

It doesn't seem to be a "winter" virus, so I'm not sure the virus is just going to disappear.

If the virus is not going to disappear, then the minute you relax the restrictions, the infections take off again.

Society might have to accept that some young people will tragically die. But you can't take a country like Ireland, tell people no work, no income for 12 months, and expect that to work either.

It's early days, and I'm in support of the current "shut everything down" plan, but there is only so long that plan is a runner.

swiwi_

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

Do we even know if herd immunity is a thing that works in this case?

There are very few human infections that do not create natural clearance and then immunity. HIV is an obvious example.

I don't think there is anything to suggest that this virus leaves people nonimmune and susceptible to multiply infections.

sydthebeat

errlloyd wrote: »

I said vaguely this a few days ago.




I sort of wonder is there a way we can begin infecting a cohort of healthy people. Turn that new resort in Longford into an infection zone. Anyone who thinks they are perfectly safe to get it heads in there and can't leave till they are clean. A few ventillators on standby for the few in that healthy cohort that do have underlying and unknown conditions.

I think I'd sign up.

this is the kind of 'out there' thinking that could work.. but can people be trusted to just "think they are perfectly safe"?

i made the point earlier that there are people out there who carry these 'at risk ' factors but dont know it yet. Do we test everyone who thinks they are safe before they go in? if we do we put more pressure on the system.

at this stage we know 80% will get mild to moderate symptom, but we also know that a cohort of that 80% will need supportive care, such as drip fed hydration, and will develop mild pneumonia which can have lasting significant effects. while hospitaliation may not be required, these case still could be a draw on scarce resources.

definitely worth a lot more investigation, if its proven that this cannot be recaught

Panda Killa

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

Do we even know if herd immunity is a thing that works in this case?

It doesn't...the English were trying this....It would have had catastrophic results

errlloyd

Former Former wrote: »

In theory, yes, but it would take so long to achieve it that the number of deaths that would happen along the way that it doesn't bear thinking about.

I think Boris Johnson has given Herd Immunity a bad name.

When we vaccinate people for the regular flu - we do so to artificially build herd immunity.
When we intentionally give children chicken pox - we do so to artifically build herd immunity.

Herd immunity doesn't necessarily mean allowing the virus to run rampant through the population. We choose segments of the population to give it to and choose how we give it to them.

swiwi_

Former Former wrote: »

In theory, yes, but it would take so long to achieve it that the number of deaths that would happen along the way that it doesn't bear thinking about.

Looking at the curves, I don't think so. The infection rate is massive. You would have the vast majority of the population infected rapidly. If you put "at risk" people off-limits, you would get immunity up quite quickly.

Tomtom364

errlloyd wrote: »

I said vaguely this a few days ago.




I sort of wonder is there a way we can begin infecting a cohort of healthy people. Turn that new resort in Longford into an infection zone. Anyone who thinks they are perfectly safe to get it heads in there and can't leave till they are clean. A few ventillators on standby for the few in that healthy cohort that do have underlying and unknown conditions.

I think I'd sign up.

The numbers in your original post are very off.
Current ventilators in the country 800 (500 existing + 300 delivered this week) and these numbers will increase by 100 every week.

+ 1000 other machines that can provide ventilator like treatment in less severe cases.

Your original calculation also takes no account of the current methods, it's isolate to slow down the spread to get a handle on it, and included specific isolation for those that will be most harshly infected. This in itsself will allow the virus to spread easier (but slower still) through younger people and should decrease the requirement for critical care as less younger people will require it compared to older groups.

Most importantly your calculations take absolutely no notice of the drug treatments being developed to fight the virus which are looking positive, which would again reduce the requirement for critical care.

And that's before ever talking about a possible vaccine in ~18 months


So to say the current plan will need 15 years of isolation to work is either downright sensationalism or a complete misunderstanding of the figures and how this all could play out.

Not sure I'd be following you into any infection resort plan.



Just to be absolutely clear: I in no way intend this to be a dig at you or anyone else, I just think in the current climate it's very important to highlight things like this. I am in no way qualified to work out the maths on this. I'd hazard a guess that noone on here really can.

Some people might see it and believe it as they don't understand what's going on, I felt compelled to call it out.

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

But if there is no vaccination and no herd immunity, is your plan to simply close down the country for months on end and hope it all works out??

It doesn't seem to be a "winter" virus, so I'm not sure the virus is just going to disappear.

If the virus is not going to disappear, then the minute you relax the restrictions, the infections take off again.

Society might have to accept that some young people will tragically die. But you can't take a country like Ireland, tell people no work, no income for 12 months, and expect that to work either.

It's early days, and I'm in support of the current "shut everything down" plan, but there is only so long that plan is a runner.

There are at least three separate vaccines in trial at the moment, along with some medicines that have been repurposed. It’s not seemingly a case of if but when.

Herd immunity is either a vaccine or 90% infection. With a current 3.7% mortality rate the death toll is unthinkable.

The policy of delaying although financially disastrous over a prolonged period of time is the only way to manage the resources of the health service. I would imagine given the death toll in the UK so far the NHS is going to be completely over run in the next two weeks. Their economy might recover quicker but it’s going to come at a massive human cost.

swiwi_

stephen_n wrote: »

There are at least three separate vaccines in trial at the moment, along with some medicines that have been repurposed. It’s not seemingly a case of if but when.

Herd immunity is either a vaccine or 90% infection. With a current 3.7% mortality rate the death toll is unthinkable.

The policy of delaying although financially disastrous over a prolonged period of time is the only way to manage the resources of the health service. I would imagine given the death toll in the UK so far the NHS is going to be completely over run in the next two weeks. Their economy might recover quicker but it’s going to come at a massive human cost.

Depends on the virus. Measles you definitely need 90 %, not sure for coronavirus. Also depends if your aim is to prevent infections or deaths. My country which is currently in the top 10 infected countries is running at 1 % deaths, probably less as testing is targeted, not systematic. Virtually all, if not all, deaths are in at risk patients for the moment.

NB: Still no vaccine for HIV. I think a vaccine will be found, and probably quicker than usual, but a vaccine in the next 30 to 90 days is probably overly hopeful.

stephen_n

stephen_n wrote: »

There are at least three separate vaccines in trial at the moment, along with some medicines that have been repurposed. It’s not seemingly a case of if but when.

Herd immunity is either a vaccine or 90% infection. With a current 3.7% mortality rate the death toll is unthinkable.

The policy of delaying although financially disastrous over a prolonged period of time is the only way to manage the resources of the health service. I would imagine given the death toll in the UK so far the NHS is going to be completely over run in the next two weeks. Their economy might recover quicker but it’s going to come at a massive human cost.

We don't know how any of this will play out, but I think the countries that aimed to save people rather than 'get this done' will be the ones with functional politics afterwards. America and the UK were in bad shape before this having been undermined by populists far more versed in public manipulation than they are in public service. They aren't equipped to deal with this kind of crises and going on their public utterances it's extremely clear that they have absolutely zero desire to do so. Marry that with extreme partisanship and huge distrust among large parts of the population and you have a recipe for social unrest.

The total lack of adherence to social distancing in those two countries is directly related to the lack of seriousness of their governments.

I'd take a year of economic hurt over more lives cut short and healthcare workers having to triage people away from life saving treatment.

molloyjh

Are we not essentially building the herd immunity slowly? Nobody is talking about anything other than ongoing increases in the number of cases. So does that not eventually lead to herd immunity?

Dave_The_Sheep

swiwi_ wrote: »

I think a vaccine will be found, and probably quicker than usual

My absolutely uneducated cynical guess is that this will be what happens. Given the size of the threat this poses to the world economy and the very real possibility of societal upheaval the longer this goes on, I suspect rules will be bent/broken to get this out in an abnormally fast timeframe.

But then again, I work in IT, what the **** do I know.

molloyjh

molloyjh wrote: »

Are we not essentially building the herd immunity slowly? Nobody is talking about anything other than ongoing increases in the number of cases. So does that not eventually lead to herd immunity?

Yeah. If we don't get a vaccine sooner then this will be managed in waves.

We'll get numbers down to zero now with social isolation over the next 6 weeks. Then they will rise again but we'll be highly vigilant and ultimately if numbers grow we'll again go back into isolation and distancing. Rince and repeat. Each wave brings greater volumes of immunity.

molloyjh

swiwi_ wrote: »

Looking at the curves, I don't think so. The infection rate is massive. You would have the vast majority of the population infected rapidly. If you put "at risk" people off-limits, you would get immunity up quite quickly.

But then problem is that this is almost impossible to truly control. You just cant control everything that everyone does or even necessarily know who is at-risk at times. Looking at projections we could potentially have the magic 60% number that's being quoted by late April or early May, but the stress that would put on the hospitals doesnt really beer thinking about, much less the mortality rate that goes with it.

All that said, I suppose we still dont truly know enough. Figures for those infected are 100% underestimated. Plenty have it and dont know or arent being tested. I cant imagine how difficult it must be to make political, public health and medical calls through all of this.

Former Former

errlloyd wrote: »

I think Boris Johnson has given Herd Immunity a bad name.

When we vaccinate people for the regular flu - we do so to artificially build herd immunity.
When we intentionally give children chicken pox - we do so to artifically build herd immunity.

Herd immunity doesn't necessarily mean allowing the virus to run rampant through the population. We choose segments of the population to give it to and choose how we give it to them.

We give children chicken pox intentionally?? No, we don't. And chicken pox is mild and self-limiting. There is a vaccine out there and we don't even bother administering it to children, because there's no point.

We do not vaccinate for the seasonal flu to build herd immunity, in fact we actively target at risk patients (old patients, pregnancy, healthcare workers) for vaccination which is the opposite of herd immunity. But so many of us have been exposed to some sort of flu over the years, that most of us have some sort of immunity already so we're grand.

No one has any immunity to Covid. You cannot build herd immunity in a couple of months. If 80% of people get it over e.g. 6 months, and 5% of those need hospitalisation, that's over 2 million people in the UK for instance. You're looking at a holocaust.

molloyjh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah. If we don't get a vaccine sooner then this will be managed in waves.

We'll get numbers down to zero now with social isolation over the next 6 weeks. Then they will rise again but we'll be highly vigilant and ultimately if numbers grow we'll again go back into isolation and distancing. Rince and repeat. Each wave brings greater volumes of immunity.

The waves idea is what I assumed. Doubt we'll get down to zero any time soon, but we'll get it low enough that maybe we can get a reprieve on the restrictions, even just temporarily. The approach really has to be limit it as much as possible to try and ensure the health service doesn't get overwhelmed. Minimise the damage and go again.

errlloyd

Tomtom364 wrote: »

Just to be absolutely clear: I in no way intend this to be a dig at you or anyone else, I just think in the current climate it's very important to highlight things like this. I am in no way qualified to work out the maths on this. I'd hazard a guess that noone on here really can.

Some people might see it and believe it as they don't understand what's going on, I felt compelled to call it out.

Great post Tomtom. Absolutely no offense taken - I don't consider it a dig at all. As I said in the original post I suspected I was wrong about the ventillators and I thank you for correcting it. I will put a note on the original post clarifying it below.

I'll prrobably remain a little defensive on the concept of the post - keeping in mind it was a few days ago. The concept of the post that this (or a greater) level of lockdown is going to have to remain in place for a long time if we want to prevent the HSE being overwhelmed. The only way this lockdown ends is if we achieve some form of herd immunity, or we get a vaccine. We could accelerate herd immunity by taking the group we know are relatively safe, and in controlled manner have cohorts of them infect, isolate and come out.

awec

Former Former wrote: »

We give children chicken pox intentionally?? No, we don't. And chicken pox is mild and self-limiting. There is a vaccine out there and we don't even bother administering it to children, because there's no point.

We do not vaccinate for the seasonal flu to build herd immunity, in fact we actively target at risk patients (old patients, pregnancy, healthcare workers) for vaccination which is the opposite of herd immunity. But so many of us have been exposed to some sort of flu over the years, that most of us have some sort of immunity already so we're grand.

No one has any immunity to Covid. You cannot build herd immunity in a couple of months. If 80% of people get it over e.g. 6 months, and 5% of those need hospitalisation, that's over 2 million people in the UK for instance. You're looking at a holocaust.

It's not a required vaccine but it's offered as standard during the 12 or 13 month vaccines (can't remember which). I have no data but I think the uptake would be relatively high.