Off Topic Thread 4.0

errlloyd

Former Former wrote: »

We give children chicken pox intentionally?? No, we don't. And chicken pox is mild and self-limiting. There is a vaccine out there and we don't even bother administering it to children, because there's no point.

We do not vaccinate for the seasonal flu to build herd immunity, in fact we actively target at risk patients (old patients, pregnancy, healthcare workers) for vaccination which is the opposite of herd immunity. But so many of us have been exposed to some sort of flu over the years, that most of us have some sort of immunity already so we're grand.

On chicken pox - it is not mild in adults and would be fatal in a significant percentage of elderly people. It is mild for children, and in this country Pox Parties are still popular. We allow toddlers and young children to get it because it is mild in them, and once they get it once they can't get it again when they're older. Edit - I didn't actually read that Pox Parties wiki article, just posted it. Makes me look like an anti vaxxer. Strongly in favour of vaccinating kids instead of just exposing them!

Seasonal flu was a bad example, because we actually vaccinate different strains of it every year. But Measles is a better example.

awec

It seems to me there's two problems. Firstly, the potential for widespread infection which overwhelms the hospitals means that people who shouldn't be high risk become high risk as we don't have the capacity to give them the necessary care.

But, even if we contain the virus and the numbers become manageable, there is still the issue of vulnerable people and the relatively high death rate. To fix this, we surely need a cure?

Former Former

awec wrote: »

It's not a required vaccine but it's offered as standard during the 12 or 13 month vaccines (can't remember which). I have no data but I think the uptake would be relatively high.

Not in the republic. You can get it privately but state does not fund it.

Dave_The_Sheep

Johnson is speaking live now about the crisis over there. He's just waffling compared to Varadkar there the last day.

awec

Former Former wrote: »

Not in the republic. You can get it privately but state does not fund it.

Sorry that's what I meant, you can pay for it if you want it.

The public health clinics will all offer it, you don't need to go anywhere different to get it.

mfceiling

Buer wrote: »

Orals and practicals to be given full marks in the Leaving Cert. Is this not madness?

Imagine you're doing Irish, French and Home Economics for the exams. You've just scored 25% from a possible 25% in 3 exams. Then you've people just taking Irish, Chemistry and History who are all about the written paper and at a disadvantage in the points race. Am I missing something here?

Saw a great tweet earlier along the lines of "you little feckers wont be laughing in a few years when a doctor that should have failed his leaving cert is working on you".

stephen_n

Italy reports 5,322 new cases of #Coronavirus and 427 new deaths.

Total number of cases reach 41035 and Total death toll reaches 3405

Fatality rate= 8.2%

Italy has OFFICALLY passed China in MOST DEATHS in a country due to

swiwi_

Former Former wrote: »

We give children chicken pox intentionally?? No, we don't. And chicken pox is mild and self-limiting. There is a vaccine out there and we don't even bother administering it to children, because there's no point.

We do not vaccinate for the seasonal flu to build herd immunity, in fact we actively target at risk patients (old patients, pregnancy, healthcare workers) for vaccination which is the opposite of herd immunity. But so many of us have been exposed to some sort of flu over the years, that most of us have some sort of immunity already so we're grand.

No one has any immunity to Covid. You cannot build herd immunity in a couple of months. If 80% of people get it over e.g. 6 months, and 5% of those need hospitalisation, that's over 2 million people in the UK for instance. You're looking at a holocaust.

Um, no. There is a new flu vacc each year, because being immune to last year's version doesn't make you immune to this year's flu.

Those recovered from the current coronavirus virus are probably immune.

Where did you pull 6 months from?? Where did you get the figure that 5% of healthy people need hospitalisation?

swiwi_

molloyjh wrote: »

The waves idea is what I assumed. Doubt we'll get down to zero any time soon, but we'll get it low enough that maybe we can get a reprieve on the restrictions, even just temporarily. The approach really has to be limit it as much as possible to try and ensure the health service doesn't get overwhelmed. Minimise the damage and go again.

I get what you're saying molloy. But the waves idea assumes people are not remaining in isolation and sporadically getting infected. It's potentially a runner though, as I doubt (now) 100 % isolation is really possible.

@venjur - you must have financial means if you survive several months with no income. The Irish state is not going to gund it's population for months on end. There is no state capable of that, maybe the extremely oil rich states, but with flights grounded, oil prices are likely to dip sharply.

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

Um, no. There is a new flu vacc each year, because being immune to last year's version doesn't make you immune to this year's flu.

Those recovered from the current coronavirus virus are probably immune.

Where did you pull 6 months from?? Where did you get the figure that 5% of healthy people need hospitalisation?

5% of those infected become seriously ill, that’s the figure based on global infections so far.

stephen_n

Jesus that’s grim.

https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1240414011608444929?s=21

swiwi_

stephen_n wrote: »

5% of those infected become seriously ill, that’s the figure based on global infections so far.

Yes, but if you keep at risk isolated, and let the healthy get herd immunity...it won't be 5 %.

FDA thinks 12 months for a vaccine. It may be shorter. If the "total shutdown" is to work, it's to be hoped the virus just fades away...

swiwi_

swiwi_ wrote: »

I get what you're saying molloy. But the waves idea assumes people are not remaining in isolation and sporadically getting infected. It's potentially a runner though, as I doubt (now) 100 % isolation is really possible.

It's a global virus - it will keep doing the rounds until enough people have been vaccinated or become immune having had it. That's the reality, we can clear it but it will come back until it has no one left to carry it.

swiwi_ wrote: »

@venjur - you must have financial means if you survive several months with no income. The Irish state is not going to gund it's population for months on end. There is no state capable of that, maybe the extremely oil rich states, but with flights grounded, oil prices are likely to dip sharply.

I expect that we'll all be on some kind of basic income come May. How long that goes on for who knows. I've taken all the steps I can to limit expenditure to ride this out but that can only go on so long.

Honestly I'm hoping there is a normal to return too - we really don't know what state the world is going to be in by 2021.

errlloyd

Speaking of limiting expenditure etc. I played PUBG with a few of you recently.

Downloaded Warzone there (free, heavily PUBG inspired Battle Royal, has many of the good elements of PUBG and only most of the **** elements of COD)

If anyone wants to discord up in the coming days. My only rule is to limit the Covid talk. I didn't think the anxiety was affecting me, but it is. (why I keep coming here I don't know).

Also, if anyone is keen on simulcasting some matches.

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

Yes, but if you keep a risk isolated, and let the healthy get herd immunity...it won't be 5 %.

FDA thinks 12 months for a vaccine. It may be shorter. If the "total shutdown" is to work, it's to be hoped the virus just fades away...

The highest rates of infection in Ireland are amongst 25-40 year olds next highest are 40-55. If those figures are the same around the world then it’s unlikely that all the 5% are coming from older people.

Squidgy Black

swiwi_ wrote: »

I get what you're saying molloy. But the waves idea assumes people are not remaining in isolation and sporadically getting infected. It's potentially a runner though, as I doubt (now) 100 % isolation is really possible.

@venjur - you must have financial means if you survive several months with no income. The Irish state is not going to gund it's population for months on end. There is no state capable of that, maybe the extremely oil rich states, but with flights grounded, oil prices are likely to dip sharply.

100% isolation isn't feasible, but I think the main concern at the moment is stopping the initial rapid spread that was seen in the likes of China and Italy. With the hopes that a majority will recover, which also depends on the likelihood of re-infection and transmission past the recovery period. If you minimise the initial wave of infection, you then make it easier to try and keep the vunerable members of society in isolation and avoid contact with confirmed cases.

I will admit though, we're still very early doors in terms of economic impacts with workplaces that don't have the ability to work from home only closing in the last couple of days. Once the economic impact starts to really kick in with those laid off starting to feel the financial pressure and markets starting to crash then I can see the tactics shift to more of the 'herd immunity' come into effect where sections of the economy/population will have to go back to normal function and just pray and hope that the vunerable are efficiently isolated. It's easy to say now that we should just remain in lockdown for the next few months, especially if you're unaffected financially due to being able to work from home etc, but we're looking at close to half a million people be out of work due to this and businesses closing down permanently due to lack of cash flow etc.

errlloyd

A friend of mine just texted me. He got laid off.

Highly qualified professional had moved jobs in January. He's ****ed.

sydthebeat

stephen_n wrote: »

The highest rates of infection in Ireland are amongst 25-40 year olds next highest are 40-55. If those figures are the same around the world then it’s unlikely that all the 5% are coming from older people.

stephen, your smiley face sig (:D) puts a very weird slant on your recent posts

Squidgy Black

191 cases reported today. That's a monumental jump from the 74 yesterday and 69 the day before.

stephen_n

sydthebeat wrote: »

stephen, your smiley face sig (:D) puts a very weird slant on your recent posts

Yeah not entirely appropriate for the current content

Clegg

Squidgy Black wrote: »

191 cases reported today. That's a monumental jump from the 74 yesterday and 69 the day before.

And one additional death. May she rest in peace.

It is a huge jump, but I think that's down to the increased testing we're doing and the change in criteria. We've opened up Croke Park for drive thru testing and now anyone who presents symptoms can be tested. It's not good, but it was to be expected, I think.

sydthebeat

Squidgy Black wrote: »

191 cases reported today. That's a monumental jump from the 74 yesterday and 69 the day before.

I expect these numbers to continue.

if the expected 30% rise is taking that as the base, we will exceed the 15,000 cases Leo was talking about in 17 days

double that would be 143,000 cases.....

everyone needs to stay the fcuk away from each other and do what they are told

Neil3030

I have to say, if Ireland ramp up to 15,000 tests per day, as Harris mentioned, we would be close to leading the way on this (on a per capita basis), by EU standards, no?

sydthebeat

i fear for how this will hit india.... they are only testing 90 people per day as of yesterday... despite having the capacity to test 8000 per day.

i fear what will come out in the wash after all this, seeing as india is such a densely populated country.

Squidgy Black

sydthebeat wrote: »

i fear for how this will hit india.... they are only testing 90 people per day as of yesterday... despite having the capacity to test 8000 per day.

i fear what will come out in the wash after all this, seeing as india is such a densely populated country.

I work with a fair few lads from India, and the general consensus from them was that it'll absolutely ravage most regions. Partially down to the fact they're so densely populated, but also due to the environment too and hospitals in a lot of regions being fairly run down.

ClanofLams

Inaction in UK with the information they have is absolutely ridiculous. It’s going to get very very bad over there

ClanofLams

ClanofLams wrote: »

Inaction in UK with the information they have is absolutely ridiculous. It’s going to get very very bad over there

You would wonder what is actually going on? They've acknowledged they got bad advice and were wrong and yet still they drag their heels.

The worst thing is you couldn't trust the Tories at all here, would you be confident saying they are acting purely in the public's best interest? I wouldn't at all. I don't think it's unfair to say that these people would turn a blind eye to a higher number of dead so long as their political and financial goals were achieved.

America now going into lock down, state department closing the borders and now look at this bull****.

Again, like the UK - the worst possible government to have at this extremely serious time.

errlloyd

errlloyd wrote: »

Speaking of limiting expenditure etc. I played PUBG with a few of you recently.

Downloaded Warzone there (free, heavily PUBG inspired Battle Royal, has many of the good elements of PUBG and only most of the **** elements of COD)

If anyone wants to discord up in the coming days. My only rule is to limit the Covid talk. I didn't think the anxiety was affecting me, but it is. (why I keep coming here I don't know).

Also, if anyone is keen on simulcasting some matches.

I keep a load of local coop (couch coop) and local multiplayer games in my wishlist and pick them up when they go on sale. I've most of the popular ones now as my kids play them with the neighbours kids. I've discovered recently that I can invite anyone to play and the games stream through steam (remote play).

Plenty of quality games and no one else needs to own them, generally upto 4 player so if you see me online and want a game of something ping me. Also - best if you have a steam or xbox controller...

Bazzo

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

Johnson is speaking live now about the crisis over there. He's just waffling compared to Varadkar there the last day.

Every time Johnson opens his mouth it's just waffle, it's his MO.

As to grand plans about the best course of action, I'll just sit back and take the prevailing view of the majority of experts. That said the economic toll is really heartbreaking as well, 100,000+ out of a job in Ireland and I'm seeing quite a bit of it first hand too.

stephen_n

Bazzo wrote: »

Every time Johnson opens his mouth it's just waffle, it's his MO.

As to grand plans about the best course of action, I'll just sit back and take the prevailing view of the majority of experts. That said the economic toll is really heartbreaking as well, 100,000+ out of a job in Ireland and I'm seeing quite a bit of it first hand too.

They said up to 400,000 on the news earlier. Feel really lucky that I’m in a job that allows me to work from home.

My gf wants us to pop over to her sister's place tomorrow night to have drinks with her and her boyfriend. Thoughts?

Former Former

Deleted User wrote: »

My gf wants us to pop over to her sister's place tomorrow night to have drinks with her and her boyfriend. Thoughts?

Can you really discipline yourselves to stay 2 metres away all evening? After a few beers?

nc6000

Deleted User wrote: »

My gf wants us to pop over to her sister's place tomorrow night to have drinks with her and her boyfriend. Thoughts?

It's a bad idea, postpone it for a week or two.

Former Former

Former Former wrote: »

Can you really discipline yourselves to stay 2 metres away all evening? After a few beers?

Stheno

stephen_n wrote: »

They said up to 400,000 on the news earlier. Feel really lucky that I’m in a job that allows me to work from home.

Tell her to read/watch this https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

Sky news got into a hospital in Italy

Its utterly horrific to watch btw I watched it literally in disbelief, the expression numb with horror sprang to mind

thomond2006

[Deleted User] wrote: »

My gf wants us to pop over to her sister's place tomorrow night to have drinks with her and her boyfriend. Thoughts?

No. This is the kind of thing that you should avoid and discourage.

Former Former

Former Former wrote: »

Can you really discipline yourselves to stay 2 metres away all evening? After a few beers?

I'm trying to convince her it's a bad idea. I'm more concerned with being indoors for a few hours with new people even with the social distancing. I'd be up for doing it outdoors in a park of something if we kept our distance. Or is that madness.

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

Tell her to read/watch this https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

Sky news got into a hospital in Italy

Its utterly horrific to watch btw I watched it literally in disbelief, the expression numb with horror sprang to mind

Yup, horrific.

This is the video folks, if there is anyone in your immediate circle of friends or family that is dismissing this in any way - this is the video to show them.

Not an easy watch. Wouldn't wish this on anyone.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm trying to convince her it's a bad idea. I'm more concerned with being indoors for long periods of time with new people even with the social distancing.

All our families (wife / mine) are distancing so that if any one of us get infected all the others are still free to step in if a parent becomes unwell or needs assistance. Maybe it's over precautious but it made sense to me.

Former Former

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm trying to convince her it's a bad idea. I'm more concerned with being indoors for a few hours with new people even with the social distancing. I'd be up for doing it outdoors in a park of something if we kept our distance. Or is that madness.

Yeah that should be fine. But a few hours indoors is crazy.

If my 70 year old mother has to stand in the garden and talk to her grandkids through a closed window, your GF can skip drinks with her sister.

Collectively saying "be grand" is literally going to kill hundreds of people.

Stheno

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yup, horrific.

This is the video folks, if there is anyone in your immediate circle of friends or family that is dismissing this in any way - this is the video to show them.

Not an easy watch. Wouldn't wish this on anyone.

I was watching and thought it was ICU

Then they announced it was a and e

While an horrific watch and I dont particularly like Sky, Kudos to them for broadcasting it

The more who see it the more it will slam the message home to do the basics being asked

Neil3030

I'm currently self quarantining in a hotel around the corner from our apartment, as I traveled back to Europe last minute, before all avenues shut off. 6 airports and 5 flights in two days. Not ideal, but no other way to guarantee getting home. I must have gone through a full tub of disinfectant wipes, avoided any and all airplane food, didn't speak to people sitting beside me or use the bathroom (on a plane at least).

My rather circuitous trip took me through Heathrow, and I'm absolutely shocked at how few ****s are being given there right now. Pubs and Cafes all open and full, nobody (white) wearing a mask, so many people coughing without covering their mouth and from the few conversations that got close enough for me to hear, the tone I gauged was more frustration at the inconvenience rather than concern for the threat of "this bloody virus".

I don't want to make this too political, but that comes from the top. From the few clips I've seen from Varadkar, Covney, etc., the Irish government are playing an absolute blinder (certainly relative to their UK counterparts) and you can see the example trickling down to the behaviour of the peoole. Right now my sister and her fella are staying with my parents as the formers' house is being finished. Thankfully my folks are retired and the rest can work from home. They've been in lockdown for about a week and a half now. Nobody allowed in or out of the house, exception in the latter case to walk the dog in the park. Food is delivered from Tesco. All fridge/freezer items are wiped down, the rest left on the porch for 24hours before bringing them inside.

Even my brother, who is the kind of guy who wouldn't wear a bike helmet as it would mess up his hair, is in lockdown with his wife at their place.

Take similar steps wherever possible, folks. We protect both ourselves and anyone else who we would otherwise interact with, and the people they might infect, and the people they might infect, and the people they might infect, and on so on. Let your inner anxious, paranoid, OCD child run absolutely rampant right now, and save some lives!!

irishbucsfan

swiwi_ wrote: »

Don’t need to flatten the curve for the healthy population.

Edit: In fact, you want them infected (and hence immunised subsequently) as fast as possible. Just need to have enough ICU capacity for the small percentage of the low-risk population that turn bad.

I know 3 people with it who are in their 20s, two of them were hospitalised

swiwi_

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I know 3 people with it who are in their 20s, two of them were hospitalised

Good for you. Thanks for the info! Evidence by anecdotes is always tenuous.

irishbucsfan

swiwi_ wrote: »

Good for you. Thanks for the info! Evidence by anecdotes is always tenuous.

Our hospitals simply don't have anywhere near the capacity. That's why we aren't following some back-of-the-matchbox herd immunity tactic.

It is far less likely obviously but it can cause very severe symptoms in anyone.

irishbucsfan

Its very very grim stateside. Someone I used to work with in California has severe symptoms and can't get a test, can't get out of bed. They're from outside the States and on their own so a colleague had to go around to look after them. I think they're getting sorted now. Could be an absolute disaster over there if uninsured people aren't able to get tested or treatment (although this person HAS good insurance through my ex-employer there)

Just read they issued a "stay-at-home" order in CA and the governor says they need 20,000 more beds and asked for a navy hospital ship to be deployed, he thinks half the population could be infected in the next two months (that'd be 20 million cases!)

Bazzo

swiwi_ wrote: »

Good for you. Thanks for the info! Evidence by anecdotes is always tenuous.

Public Health England drew up a "reasonable case scenario" that 15% could require hospitalisation, presumably not pulled out of their ass, if that's good enough for you:

https://www.ft.com/content/8c1bac6e-66fe-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Its very very grim stateside. Someone I used to work with in California has severe symptoms and can't get a test, can't get out of bed. They're from outside the States and on their own so a colleague had to go around to look after them. I think they're getting sorted now. Could be an absolute disaster over there if uninsured people aren't able to get tested or treatment (although this person HAS good insurance through my ex-employer there)

Just read they issued a "stay-at-home" order in CA and the governor says they need 20,000 more beds and asked for a navy hospital ship to be deployed, he thinks half the population could be infected in the next two months (that'd be 20 million cases!)

Good insurance in the US means nothing. I had an aunt & cousins living there for a few years. Her husband was high profile in a major financial institution there at the time. Lots of sway with the company who had a health care scheme for employees through a particular insurer. When my cousin had a severe asthma attack and needed hospitalization the insurer tried every trick in the book to avoid having to pay despite a comprehensive policy. Only serious pressure from the employer finally forced them to pony up. Had he not been in such a position in the company he wouldn't have had that support and would have been left covering the cost themselves. Which they probably could have tbh, but it was instructive on how these things are handled and how on your own you can be there even with insurance.

Buer

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Its very very grim stateside. Someone I used to work with in California has severe symptoms and can't get a test, can't get out of bed. They're from outside the States and on their own so a colleague had to go around to look after them. I think they're getting sorted now. Could be an absolute disaster over there if uninsured people aren't able to get tested or treatment (although this person HAS good insurance through my ex-employer there)

Just read they issued a "stay-at-home" order in CA and the governor says they need 20,000 more beds and asked for a navy hospital ship to be deployed, he thinks half the population could be infected in the next two months (that'd be 20 million cases!)

It's exploding there now percentage wise. If they start testing on a more widespread level, I believe they're going to very rapidly reach Italian numbers.

Disturbing stuff coming out of Italy yesterday. Obviously the fact that they've overtaken China for the most deaths to date is grim in itself but according to comments from the Chinese Red Cross (who are in Lombardy to offer guidance) the public response is wholly insufficient. 52,000 fines already in Italy for people not respecting lockdown and being in public with no good reason.

Milan, the major city in Lombardy, is far too active still and the lockdown does not seem to be an actual lockdown according to the spokesperson from the Red Cross:

"Here in Milan, the hardest hit area by COVID-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks."

According to Paddy Agnew on RTE, the expectation is that numbers will continue to substantially increase for the remainder of this month at least.

Anecdotally, from what I can see, it's the younger generations that are the biggest issue. Yes, some older people are too through a lack of self awareness and/or ignorance. But I see the 15-30 age group as being the biggest problem. I go for a walk each evening for 1 hour to get some exercise and clear my head. Every evening, I see groups of 4-5 people walking about, sitting together in close proximity or in cars. They're completely oblivious to the situation at hand or, probably as likely, they don't give a f*ck as they think they're young and indestructible/it will never impact on them.

Up to this point, I've been of the opinion that it's going to take a few dozen deaths to focus the public minds across the board...but reading the Italian situation and comments from the Red Cross this morning, I'm not so sure.

swiwi_

I have asked my infectious diseases colleague the situation where I work. Currently 30 patients hospitalised with coro, of which 5 in ICU, of which 2 are young of which 1 of these 2 has an underlying illness.

IMO it is not currently workable the partial herd immunity concept, hospitals would be overrun, however the compete lockdown cannot go on indefinitely, at some point "not at risk" people will have to be allowed to start working again.

At some point as well, ICU will have to define limits of care. Another ID colleague told me if not better after 5 to 7 days in ICU, you can probably withdraw care (I think this was based on the Italian experience). They are also trialing anti-virals and hydroxychloroquine in ICU patients, too soon too tell if makes any difference.

I wish everyone on the forum the best of health and a good weekend as far as possible.