Off Topic Thread 4.0

jacothelad

The Entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well .....:D:D:D


http://https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/pub-forced-to-suspend-pint-delivery-service-after-claims-of-law-breach-39139698.html

The percentage of people creepily staring out windows as sharply gone up

Buer

Deleted User wrote: »

The percentage of people creepily staring out windows as sharply gone up

A neighbour near me (who is extremely friendly but in an overbearing and invasive way) has set up a camera inside his living room window. It's not like a permanent addition like a mounted security camera. Just stuck a camera sitting on the window sill to watch people go past.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The percentage of people creepily staring out windows as sharply gone up

https://youtu.be/BR3B8-DsXL8

troyzer

Lads, I've nearly completed Star Trek on Netflix.

And I'm one of the lucky few still working from home.

aloooof

The Last Dance up on Netflix from today, I think. Looking forward to watching that.

troyzer

troyzer wrote: »

Lads, I've nearly completed Star Trek on Netflix.

And I'm one of the lucky few still working from home.

Time well spent.

troyzer

Addison Yummy Fashion wrote: »

Time well spent.

Absolutely, I'm fretting about what to do when I'm done.

I'm not watching that Discovery ****e again.

Clegg

Have you watch Babylon 5, Troyzer?

Cut from the same cloth as Deep Space 9.

troyzer

troyzer wrote: »

Absolutely, I'm fretting about what to do when I'm done.

I'm not watching that Discovery ****e again.

I'd suggest Stargate next. And Battlestar Galactica after that.

troyzer

Clegg wrote: »

Have you watch Babylon 5, Troyzer?

Cut from the same cloth as Deep Space 9.

Addison Yummy Fashion wrote: »

I'd suggest Stargate next. And Battlestar Galactica after that.

I have the Orville to get through as well.

Plenty of space Sci-Fi to keep me going it seems.

Zzippy

MOD NOTE: The No Politics rule is temporarily amended for this thread only. Discussion of foreign politics only is permitted, as it relates to Covid 19. Discussion of any politics on the island of Ireland remains forbidden. This will be kept under review, and any messing will result in the total ban being reinstated.

kuang1

Floodgates open.

FACECUTTR

The Expanse is very good if it has not been mentioned earlier.

troyzer

Zzippy wrote: »

MOD NOTE: The No Politics rule is temporarily amended for this thread only. Discussion of foreign politics only is permitted, as it relates to Covid 19. Discussion of any politics on the island of Ireland remains forbidden. This will be kept under review, and any messing will result in the total ban being reinstated.

What about Rockall?

Technically.......

errlloyd

Zzippy wrote: »

MOD NOTE: The No Politics rule is temporarily amended for this thread only. Discussion of foreign politics only is permitted, as it relates to Covid 19. Discussion of any politics on the island of Ireland remains forbidden. This will be kept under review, and any messing will result in the total ban being reinstated.

Appreciate this from the mods. I realise it could lead to some more work for you, but it is nice to discuss this stuff with this community - rather than in some of the wider threads....

Neil3030

I'll kick things off with this very clever campaign ad by Biden:

https://twitter.com/politidope/status/1251609321353490433?s=12

Buer

If the Democrats are going to win, it's exactly how they're going to have to do it. They need to be prepared to fight dirty, get into a smear campaign and Biden is going to have to be able to do that in person, not just let his campaign team and marketing people throw it on television.

Neil3030

What's the logical device here, can't think of the name of it. Basically, you say Trump mismanaged the crisis because he's China's lapdog. Trump will mainly defend the accusation that he's China's lapdog, not the fact that he mismanaged the crisis. So the latter belief spreads, unchallenged.

Trump did the exact same thing in 2016 with Clinton's emails. "Look, she's crooked, she keeps her emails on a separate server". All the effort went into defending the use of the email server, not defending her integrity. The belief that she was crooked accordingly spread unabated.

Is it a reverse strawman?

swiwi_

Neil3030 wrote: »

I'll kick things off with this very clever campaign ad by Biden:

https://twitter.com/politidope/status/1251609321353490433?s=12

Your man needs to watch more ads is my take if he thinks it’s one of the best ads he’s ever seen. I’d be for Biden but he’d be wanting to keep those payments to Botox inc under wraps.

sydthebeat

Neil3030 wrote: »

What's the logical device here, can't think of the name of it. Basically, you say Trump mismanaged the crisis because he's China's lapdog. Trump will mainly defend the accusation that he's China's lapdog, not the fact that he mismanaged the crisis. So the latter belief spreads, unchallenged.

Trump did the exact same thing in 2016 with Clinton's emails. "Look, she's crooked, she keeps her emails on a separate server". All the effort went into defending the use of the email server, not defending her integrity. The belief that she was crooked accordingly spread unabated.

Is it a reverse strawman?

Its along the line lines of "when did you stop beating your wife"???

They are "loaded" arguments

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

What's the logical device here, can't think of the name of it. Basically, you say Trump mismanaged the crisis because he's China's lapdog. Trump will mainly defend the accusation that he's China's lapdog, not the fact that he mismanaged the crisis. So the latter belief spreads, unchallenged.

Trump did the exact same thing in 2016 with Clinton's emails. "Look, she's crooked, she keeps her emails on a separate server". All the effort went into defending the use of the email server, not defending her integrity. The belief that she was crooked accordingly spread unabated.

Is it a reverse strawman?

It's more simple than that. The trump administration's strategy to deal with Covid19 has nothing to do with healthcare and life saving. They aren't capable or particularly interested.

Instead they are aiming to distract and deflect. Distract with China antagonism and deflect by saying it's the WHO's fault.

Highlighting Trumps rhetoric towards China throughout January and February will mean that anyone searching or reading about what Trump is saying will run into ads and content like that produced by Biden.

They aren't attacking Trump - they are attacking his excuses.

All this aside, I think if there is a free and relatively fair election in November then Trump is going to get beaten badly. He has no consistent trends within swing states that suggest a good election for him, he is in a weaker position than he was in 2016. Recent elections and by-elections have trended blue.

If it's not a free and fair election then America is going to have a pretty serious crisis to deal with.

If he is freely elected again then I think the writing is on the wall for human kind. If the most wealthy and powerful are going to be so utterly self destructive then I see no avenue for a successful reversal of the climate catastrophe. I'd honestly start to more seriously think about telling my kids to forget about having families themselves.

swiwi_

Deleted User wrote: »

It's more simple than that. The trump administration's strategy to deal with Covid19 has nothing to do with healthcare and life saving. They aren't capable or particularly interested.

Instead they are aiming to distract and deflect. Distract with China antagonism and deflect by saying it's the WHO's fault.

Highlighting Trumps rhetoric towards China throughout January and February will mean that anyone searching or reading about what Trump is saying will run into ads and content like that produced by Biden.

They aren't attacking Trump - they are attacking his excuses.

All this aside, I think if there is a free and relatively fair election in November then Trump is going to get beaten badly. He has no consistent trends within swing states that suggest a good election for him, he is in a weaker position than he was in 2016. Recent elections and by-elections have trended blue.

If it's not a free and fair election then America is going to have a pretty serious crisis to deal with.

If he is freely elected again then I think the writing is on the wall for human kind. If the most wealthy and powerful are going to be so utterly self destructive then I see no avenue for a successful reversal of the climate catastrophe. I'd honestly start to more seriously think about telling my kids to forget about having families themselves.

The start of Biden's post "I'd sent US health observers to China".

(Umm, what if China says "no, thanks".

"Oh well, that's Ok because we are America and we do what we want, under the guise of looking after the world".)

Trump is terrible, but that kind of America-first proclamation is what makes all American politicians fairly unpalatable.

Neil3030

swiwi_ wrote: »

The start of Biden's post "I'd sent US health observers to China".

(Umm, what if China says "no, thanks".

"Oh well, that's Ok because we are America and we do what we want, under the guise of looking after the world".)

Trump is terrible, but that kind of America-first proclamation is what makes all American politicians fairly unpalatable.

Biden didn't make the ad for people outside of the U.S., or even people in the U.S. who dislike Trump.

Neil3030

Deleted User wrote: »

It's more simple than that. The trump administration's strategy to deal with Covid19 has nothing to do with healthcare and life saving. They aren't capable or particularly interested.

Instead they are aiming to distract and deflect. Distract with China antagonism and deflect by saying it's the WHO's fault.

Highlighting Trumps rhetoric towards China throughout January and February will mean that anyone searching or reading about what Trump is saying will run into ads and content like that produced by Biden.

They aren't attacking Trump - they are attacking his excuses.

All this aside, I think if there is a free and relatively fair election in November then Trump is going to get beaten badly. He has no consistent trends within swing states that suggest a good election for him, he is in a weaker position than he was in 2016. Recent elections and by-elections have trended blue.

If it's not a free and fair election then America is going to have a pretty serious crisis to deal with.

If he is freely elected again then I think the writing is on the wall for human kind. If the most wealthy and powerful are going to be so utterly self destructive then I see no avenue for a successful reversal of the climate catastrophe. I'd honestly start to more seriously think about telling my kids to forget about having families themselves.

It can be both, of course. Disarm him of his favoured defense, but also distract him with a straw man and let the more important message spread.

swiwi_

swiwi_ wrote: »

The start of Biden's post "I'd sent US health observers to China".

(Umm, what if China says "no, thanks".

"Oh well, that's Ok because we are America and we do what we want, under the guise of looking after the world".)

Trump is terrible, but that kind of America-first proclamation is what makes all American politicians fairly unpalatable.

The CDC has a long track record of getting into and being granted access to regional break outs and are often welcomed due to their testing and identification capabilities. Historically the CDC would be viewed as a spare life raft in a crisis.

When people talk about soft power this is the type of thing they are referring to. Trump has (for the foreseeable future) absolutely nuked the USA's ability to exercise that power constructively. Had the CDC gotten into Wuhan early who knows where things would be now for the world.

America used to stay in front of these kinds of catastrophe's because capable, switched on people were at the helm. With Trump in charge there is no safety net because the concept of one simply wouldn't occur to him and the money is better directed to shareholders.

Neil3030

Deleted User wrote: »

The CDC has a long track record of getting into and being granted access to regional break outs and are often welcomed due to their testing and identification capabilities. Historically the CDC would be viewed as a spare life raft in a crisis.

When people talk about soft power this is the type of thing they are referring to. Trump has (for the foreseeable future) absolutely nuked the USA's ability to exercise that power constructively. Had the CDC gotten into Wuhan early who knows where things would be now for the world.

America used to stay in front of these kinds of catastrophe's because capable, switched on people were at the helm. With Trump in charge there is no safety net because the concept of one simply wouldn't occur to him and the money is better directed to shareholders.

The funny thing is, if the WHO were in China, the CDC were in China. Trump just wouldn't understand how the relationship works between his own federal agency and the WHO.

Panda Killa

I will state here.. right now... Trump will walk back into the Whitehouse.
I lived and worked in Louisiana for years...they love! him there...it's the same in all the southern states... you might get 1 dissenting voice in a hundred.. literally...my Facebook is a Trump victory calvacade... already ...and what hurts is they are correct

prawnsambo

Panda Killa wrote: »

I will state here.. right now... Trump will walk back into the Whitehouse.
I lived and worked in Louisiana for years...they love! him there...it's the same in all the southern states... you might get 1 dissenting voice in a hundred.. literally...my Facebook is a Trump victory calvacade... already ...and what hurts is they are correct

I'd hazard a guess that those cheerleaders don't include African-Americans. But the election will be won and lost in the swing states that got him over the line the last time. And they don't seem to be swinging that way now.

thomond2006

So should I buy 1000 barrels of crude oil now?

Panda Killa

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess that those cheerleaders don't include African-Americans. But the election will be won and lost in the swing states that got him over the line the last time. And they don't seem to be swinging that way now.

Genuinely...it won't even be close...if maybe 200,000 Americans die from Covid...perhaps... but at the moment he's streets ahead

Neil3030

Panda Killa wrote: »

I will state here.. right now... Trump will walk back into the Whitehouse.
I lived and worked in Louisiana for years...they love! him there...it's the same in all the southern states... you might get 1 dissenting voice in a hundred.. literally...my Facebook is a Trump victory calvacade... already ...and what hurts is they are correct

Probably best not to predict the behaviour of the whole country from such a steadfastly Republican state.

Biden needs to win 39 electoral college votes back from Trump's tally in 2016.

He should get 20 of these back from Pennsylvania, his home state.

That leaves 19 votes. There are a total of 81 votes up for grabs across 5 states where Trump won by less than a 4% margin in 2016 - NC (15), FL (29), AZ (11), WI (10) and MI (16).

Trump would also need to hold IA (6) and OH (18), both of which are perennial swing states.

Obviously 6-7 months is an eternity in politics, and we're living in a very unique climate where just about anything can happen, but Trump is playing with a very thin margin, and victory is not a guarantee by any means.

prawnsambo

thomond2006 wrote: »

So should I buy 1000 barrels of crude oil now?

That price is for futures that are coming due.


And generally a negative value reflects the cost of storage.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

So should I buy 1000 barrels of crude oil now?

My understanding is now they are paying me to take it off their hands

Neil3030

prawnsambo wrote: »

That price is for futures that are coming due.


And generally a negative value reflects the cost of storage.

Parks are closed....

Gives me an idea....

mfceiling

Lads if you want 30 minutes of something exceptional tonight then it's bbc2 at 8.30.

University challenge final tonight. Ho hum you say but not tonight. Tonight we have 2 teams with 2 absolute geniuses sitting opposite each other.

Wang vs Brandon.

Twitter has been great the last few weeks when this has been on.

This is going to be epic.

swiwi_

Friendly tip for those might not beware: your credit company might have cancellation insurance

Our flights were cancelled with the airline "freezing" the tickets rather than paying out. F*ck that, I thought, a quick squiz on the CC website and I saw that having paid for the flights with a CC, I'm insured. So in goes the claim.

thomond2006

It's at -40 USD a barrel now, since there's nowhere to store the pumped oil. Wow.

swiwi_

mfceiling wrote: »

Lads if you want 30 minutes of something exceptional tonight then it's bbc2 at 8.30.

University challenge final tonight. Ho hum you say but not tonight. Tonight we have 2 teams with 2 absolute geniuses sitting opposite each other.

Wang vs Brandon.

Twitter has been great the last few weeks when this has been on.

This is going to be epic.

"Brandon" already has career quiz earnings of £300'000. Who's laughing at the geek now.

Bazzo

swiwi_ wrote: »

Friendly tip for those might not beware: your credit company might have cancellation insurance

Our flights were cancelled with the airline "freezing" the tickets rather than paying out. F*ck that, I thought, a quick squiz on the CC website and I saw that having paid for the flights with a CC, I'm insured. So in goes the claim.

I make virtually any big purchase with a credit card, most things are then insured. Just pay the balance at the end of the month.

mfceiling

swiwi_ wrote: »

"Brandon" already has career quiz earnings of £300'000. Who's laughing at the geek now.

I know!! I actually read up on the pair of them this week. I really admire people like this for some reason.

mfceiling

Well that was an anti climax.

mfceiling

mfceiling wrote: »

Well that was an anti climax.

I was going to watch it but I had a fceiling it would be.

Panda Killa

mfceiling wrote: »

Well that was an anti climax.

*Said Mrs mfceiling*

apologies...

mfceiling

Panda Killa wrote: »

*Said Mrs mfceiling*

apologies...

Cheers P!!

Neil3030

mfceiling wrote: »

I know!! I actually read up on the pair of them this week. I really admire people like this for some reason.

Did you see the lad that was crushing US Jeopardy last year?

Good podcast about him here: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/722198188?t=1587413883055

Panda Killa

Panda Killa wrote: »

Genuinely...it won't even be close...if maybe 200,000 Americans die from Covid...perhaps... but at the moment he's streets ahead

I'd be interested to know what data you are looking at which suggests such a clear win!

Trump has been campaigning non stop since the last election. He never stopped. He was holding rallies in February and campaigning matters - the parties put an earth shattering amount of work into them and they sway voter intention significantly enough.

Trump also enjoys substantial coverage bias over anyone at the moment. Once the campaigns start Biden's coverage will ramp up and start eating into some of those minutes. Trump sucks all the oxygen out of the room but he will still lose time he currently enjoys to his direct opponent.

His polling has never looked healthy for a sitting President and in swing states he has consistently polled behind a spectrum of Democratic candidates. In a normal election year this would be a massive issue due to all the advantages the incumbent has at this point in the campaigning.

For obvious reasons this is not a normal election year. Covid is a once in a century event (I hope) and Trump is also a very recent phenomenon in developed state politics. For this reason historical trends are historically inaccurate and polling relies on historical trends to project future likelihood.

Going on the swing from the mid terms where Democrats overshot polling and looking at the incredibly serious criminality of the American government I feel that logic is not pointing in Trumps favour.

Podge_irl

thomond2006 wrote: »

It's at -40 USD a barrel now, since there's nowhere to store the pumped oil. Wow.

It’s not really that there is “nowhere” to store it. WTI prices can fluctuate wildly based solely on the ability to store specifically in Cushing as that is where the physical delivery of the futures contracts take place. European crude - ie Brent - is still in the 20s. The WTI June contract is still in the 20$ range - people are trying to roll their positions forward to take delivery in June instead of May and it’s just causing a free for all in the May position. It’s a combination of factors but “oil” in the very general sense is not being priced negatively at all.

Neil3030

Fine act of altruism here by the POTUS, making sure that nobody comes to the USA and risk catching Covid:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639

pickarooney

Far be it from to see anything positive about anything the ****muppet does but how is this different to what Ardern did in NZ and which was widely praised?