Off Topic Thread 4.0

kuang1

kuang1 wrote: »

I opted out very deliberately from following Irish based news 7 years ago.
Hence my ignorance on this...but what are current polls suggesting?
If the vote was held today do we have a fair idea of which way it would go?

Polls have the amendment being repealed currently. I'd say it will be closer than what the polls have been indicating but I'd be surprised if there isn't a repeal.

errlloyd

kuang1 wrote: »

I opted out very deliberately from following Irish based news 7 years ago.
Hence my ignorance on this...but what are current polls suggesting?
If the vote was held today do we have a fair idea of which way it would go?

Deleted User wrote: »

Polls have the amendment being repealed currently. I'd say it will be closer than what the polls have been indicating but I'd be surprised if there isn't a repeal.

There is an interesting trend on the polls before other Referendums on similar issues historically in Ireland. I'll see if I can find it. Attached is an Irish Times article that eludes to it, but I have definitely seen the data in a more granual form. If I recall correctly, women in the 30-60 bracket overwhelmingly swung in the last abortion referendum (which I know was a long time ago). They had been significantly more likely than men to support it, but come voting day they were significantly less likely than men to support it.

I guess it's natural that the emotive arguments are more effective on women who have become mothers.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-poll-findings-dramatic-but-attitude-change-has-been-gradual-1.3368761

errlloyd

errlloyd wrote: »

There is an interesting trend on the polls before other Referendums on similar issues historically in Ireland. I'll see if I can find it. Attached is an Irish Times article that eludes to it, but I have definitely seen the data in a more granual form. If I recall correctly, women in the 30-60 bracket overwhelmingly swung in the last abortion referendum (which I know was a long time ago). They had been significantly more likely than men to support it, but come voting day they were significantly less likely than men to support it.

I guess it's natural that the emotive arguments are more effective on women who have become mothers.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/abortion-poll-findings-dramatic-but-attitude-change-has-been-gradual-1.3368761

Yeah it's an unusual one. I know a young educated non religious couple with one child who are both voting no and one of the sets of parents who are regular church goers are voting in favour of repeal.

It's going to be a referendum that confounds social expectation in many ways.

Anyway, this is as far as the barge pole touching gets, adieu!

prawnsambo

errlloyd wrote: »

I just don't get posters. They're a little bit useful for local elections, where potentially new members of the constituency don't even know the names of the councillors and could benefit a bit from the reminder.

But this is a referendum. What are the posters meant to be. Some sort of dick measuring competitions to show who got more money from US interest groups. No one is going to make a decision on whether they think its a baby or bunch of cells based on a red poster that says vote no.

Any particular poster or just all posters on this board? :P

swiwi_

I detested election posters in Ireland. Such an eyesore especially out in the countryside.

stephen_n

errlloyd wrote: »

I just don't get posters. They're a little bit useful for local elections, where potentially new members of the constituency don't even know the names of the councillors and could benefit a bit from the reminder.

But this is a referendum. What are the posters meant to be. Some sort of dick measuring competitions to show who got more money from US interest groups. No one is going to make a decision on whether they think its a baby or bunch of cells based on a red poster that says vote no.

You probably don’t get them because they aren’t aimed at you. The poster campaign is squarely aimed at the older voters I’d say. Which is the core vote for the no campaign. It’s been a steady stream of emotive content mixed with worst case scenario proclamations. I would say it will be very effective in the long run.

I’d expect that the yes campaign will be more focused on new media. Though I’m not on Facebook or Twitter, so don’t really know if they’re visible their either.

prawnsambo

Who knew Jean-Claude Juncker had a sense of humour? John Oliver brought my attention to this on his show the other night. Victor Orban (Hungarian PM with dictatorial ambitions) being greeted by Juncker a couple of years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hl83Jpd_OI

Yeah_Right

swiwi_ wrote: »

I detested election posters in Ireland. Such an eyesore especially out in the countryside.

One thing I think Ireland could learn from NZ when it comes to elections/referendums, no advertising on polling day. It's illegal. It means all posters, hoardings etc. have to be gone or they get fined. You put 'em up, you take 'em down.

.ak

Yeah_Right wrote: »

One thing I think Ireland could learn from NZ when it comes to elections/referendums, no advertising on polling day. It's illegal. It means all posters, hoardings etc. have to be gone or they get fined. You put 'em up, you take 'em down.

We actually have that as well here too, just think it's a set date after elections.

Personally I don't get posters for electrions. Hardly like you're going to look up and go 'Hmm, yeah I'll vote for that socially awkward looking ****, especially because they've put one up on every pole for the next 10 miles.'.

errlloyd

.ak wrote: »

We actually have that as well here too, just think it's a set date after elections.

Personally I don't get posters for electrions. Hardly like you're going to look up and go 'Hmm, yeah I'll vote for that socially awkward looking ****, especially because they've put one up on every pole for the next 10 miles.'.

Yeah, you're also not allowed canvas on polling day, and I think posters within a certain distance of a station have to come down.

Yeah_Right

.ak wrote: »

We actually have that as well here too, just think it's a set date after elections.
'.

Really? I remember a several times over the past few years seeing posters hanging off poles or half falling down all over the place weeks after the election. Is the punishment not enforced? The politicians should be fined to make sure their supporters clean up.

prawnsambo

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Really? I remember a several times over the past few years seeing posters hanging off poles or half falling down all over the place weeks after the election. Is the punishment not enforced? The politicians should be fined to make sure their supporters clean up.

They are fined. A Fine Gael TD was fined €3,000 a couple of years ago for this.

Buer

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Really? I remember a several times over the past few years seeing posters hanging off poles or half falling down all over the place weeks after the election. Is the punishment not enforced? The politicians should be fined to make sure their supporters clean up.

They're allowed keep posters up for a grace period of a week after the elections. They can be fined under litter laws after that.

There's a media moratorium on any election that is put in place from 2pm the day before the vote until the time of the polling closing.

BBDBB

.ak wrote: »

We actually have that as well here too, just think it's a set date after elections.

Personally I don't get posters for electrions. Hardly like you're going to look up and go 'Hmm, yeah I'll vote for that socially awkward looking ****, especially because they've put one up on every pole for the next 10 miles.'.

Its subtle but its simply the repetition of a name that gives it more weight and prominence in our minds. We are more likely to attend to the name the more we hear it and we draw the inference that the prominence of that name means that we and lots of other people back that person.

Sounds bizarre when you stop and think about it and Imm sure some folk reading this will be sceptical as to whether people actually fall for it, but I can assure you its a measurable and very real phenomenon. Advertisers use it to their advantage all the time on TV, Radio and in the media. In your normal days activity you will be bombarded with hundreds of brand identities and they each try to grab your attention. Its an industry worth billions because the success it has is worth even more.

Zzippy

.ak wrote: »

We actually have that as well here too, just think it's a set date after elections.

Personally I don't get posters for electrions. Hardly like you're going to look up and go 'Hmm, yeah I'll vote for that socially awkward looking ****, especially because they've put one up on every pole for the next 10 miles.'.

No, but you might be stuck for an arse wipe and vote for the guy who provided it...

https://twitter.com/shkenna/status/696817618515267585

swiwi_

swiwi_ wrote: »

I detested election posters in Ireland. Such an eyesore especially out in the countryside.

I'm not sure when you arrived in Ireland initially but back in the day they would stay up for months and months after the election. They're a menace.

stephen_n

Name removed from the register again, that’s 4 times in the last 14 years. I think someone out there really doesn’t want me to vote.

dregin

Any of ye have a PT in Flyefit? Got prices from one guy in the Baggot Street gym - 200 a month for 1 session per week for a minimum of 3 months. Is 50 quid a session deemed reasonable these days?

swiwi_

Sloane Nutritious Ham wrote: »

I'm not sure when you arrived in Ireland initially but back in the day they would stay up for months and months after the election. They're a menace.

2007. Before the tiger became a mere kitten.

prawnsambo

swiwi_ wrote: »

2007. Before the tiger became a mere kitten.

It was always a sceptic kitten.

Stheno

prawnsambo wrote: »

It was always a sceptic kitten.

Shure its the phoenix now.

100k jobs and mega payrises in the next year according to the central bank today

Bridge93

swiwi_ wrote: »

2007. Before the tiger became a mere kitten.

I genuinely thought given the date and name that you were talking about Tiger Woods when I first read this

Neil3030

Bridge93 wrote: »

I genuinely thought given the date and name that you were talking about Tiger Woods when I first read this

Nah that was when the Tiger became a depraved alley cat in heat.

awec

Champions League draw was great.

The Lost Sheep

So who are people backing in the grand national?

sydthebeat

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

So who are people backing in the grand national?

No's 16, 40 + 2

The Lost Sheep

sydthebeat wrote: »

No's 16, 40 + 2

Have something on 3,6, 13, 18, 22 and 25 as had to put bets on for some of the house mates you couldnt due to work..

DGRulz

Think I won a tenner on the Grand National sweepstakes in work. My horse came last

Zzippy

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

sydthebeat

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

congrats !!!

you may tie a knot in it now

irishbucsfan

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

Jaysus at this rate the Westerners will have outbred us by then. Probably have to move the capital.

Congrats!

Zzippy

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

Congrats! Having a second is initially harder but as they get older it get's much harder. You're fcuked!

Bazzo

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

Congrats!

molloyjh

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

Congrats Zzippy.

Buer

Zzippy wrote: »

So, bun number 2 is in the oven. Baked for another 6 months at 37 degrees I'm told.

I'm sure I'll be back posting more regularly in about, oh, 2036...

Jesus Christ. Did you ride her in the hospital or what?!

Oh, yeah congrats!

awec

Congrats Zzippy.

Jaysus the thoughts of having a second one...

prawnsambo

Congrats Zzippy. Seems like only yesterday I was congratulating you on your first.

kuang1

Congrats Zzip.

That'll be Irish twins then?

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

Congrats Zzippy.

Jaysus the thoughts of having a second one...

It wouldn’t have bothered me until the teething......

prawnsambo

molloyjh wrote: »

It wouldn’t have bothered me until the teething......

What about the terrible twos? Or have you not got there yet?

molloyjh

prawnsambo wrote: »

What about the terrible twos? Or have you not got there yet?

Only at 3 months now.

prawnsambo

molloyjh wrote: »

Only at 3 months now.

Be warned. It is a thing.

Edit: The funniest and most alarming outbreak we dealt with was with number two son. He would get in a tantrum, fall on the floor and lie there not breathing. I sh1t you not. He would go blue. Doctor's advice was to make light of it and that's what we did. I'd say things like "your lips don't match the colour of your jumper" or "blue isn't your colour". It worked. :eek:

molloyjh

prawnsambo wrote: »

Be warned. It is a thing.

Edit: The funniest and most alarming outbreak we dealt with was with number two son. He would get in a tantrum, fall on the floor and lie there not breathing. I sh1t you not. He would go blue. Doctor's advice was to make light of it and that's what we did. I'd say things like "your lips don't match the colour of your jumper" or "blue isn't your colour". It worked. :eek:

I don't doubt it. Apparently that's when they start identifying themselves as individuals apart from their parents which then leads to the behaviour. If our little one is half as stubborn as either of her parents though we're in for some fun times....

prawnsambo

molloyjh wrote: »

I don't doubt it. Apparently that's when they start identifying themselves as individuals apart from their parents which then leads to the behaviour. If our little one is half as stubborn as either of her parents though we're in for some fun times....

Oh yeah. It's always about testing boundaries and establishing their place in the greater scheme of things. Our GP told us that if we didn't nip that particular outbreak in the bud, it would escalate to unconsciousness. It's extraordinary to think that a kid that young could overcome their body's natural reactions to that extent.

I remember my wife asking in sheer terror "What happens if he goes unconscious?" and the GP replying, "He'll start breathing again".

I must remind him of that episode.

Zzippy

Buer wrote: »

Jesus Christ. Did you ride her in the hospital or what?!

Oh, yeah congrats!

Yeah, we went back to the hospital when the baby was 9 months old for a ride! :rolleyes:

Zzippy

molloyjh wrote: »

It wouldn’t have bothered me until the teething......

Teething already?!

Buer

Zzippy wrote: »

Yeah, we went back to the hospital when the baby was 9 months old for a ride! :rolleyes:

I'm thinking of molloy and awec. Or IBF. Or Yeah Right.

I don't know. You're all just names to me.

Yeah_Right

Zzippy wrote: »

Yeah, we went back to the hospital when the baby was 9 months old for a ride! :rolleyes:

Its one way to pass the time while the kid is getting their jabs


And Buer, I don't have kids. At least, none that the government can deduct from my wages.

pickarooney

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Its one way to pass the time while the kid is getting their jabs


And Buer, I don't have kids. At least, none that the government can deduct from my wages.

What way do tax credits work in NZ??

irishbucsfan

pickarooney wrote: »

What way do tax credits work in NZ??

You get paid in children