Off Topic Thread 4.0

stephen_n

Deleted User wrote: »

Sinn Fein have always been opportunistically populist.

There was a discussion the other day about whether it was worth voting in this election. I would argue now that minimising the % Casey gets is as good a reason as any.

I 100% guarantee you that if his numbers are good we'll see Trump style right wing candidates elected in the next GE.

At one stage they were for it in the north and against it here, not sure if that’s actually changed. Are they possibly just quietly against it in the Republic now and vocally for it in the North?

ClanofLams

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sinn Fein have always been opportunistically populist.

There was a discussion the other day about whether it was worth voting in this election. I would argue now that minimising the % Casey gets is as good a reason as any.

I 100% guarantee you that if his numbers are good we'll see Trump style right wing candidates elected in the next GE.

I think Casey’s numbers could be shockingly good, above 15%. He is a protest/anti govt vote at this stage basically and people love that stuff in referenda or presidential elections, Seanad referendum, Lisbon, etc.

Don’t necessarily agree it will translate to seats in next GE, people’s preferences are a lot more committed in general elections, in calm-good economic times incumbency advantage is a huge hurdle to overcome and for independents or new political party it will be very difficult. It will probably inspire a lot of candidates from the same ilk if he does well alright.

thomond2006

Neil3030 wrote: »

Reminds me of a poster I saw in Ranelagh during (I think) the second Lisbon referendum:

"Sinn Fein are against it. Vote Yes."

Ryanair had a brilliant poster during the Lisbon referendum. I can't find it online but it went as follows:

Vote Yes:

• For the Economy
• For Jobs
• To piss off Sinn Fein and Declan Ganley

stephen_n

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ryanair had a brilliant poster during the Lisbon referendum. I can't find it online but it went as follows:

Vote Yes:

• For the Economy
• For Jobs
• To piss off Sinn Fein and Declan Ganley

That must have been before Michael O’Leary fell out with the EU.

Podge_irl

stephen_n wrote: »

That must have been before Michael O’Leary fell out with the EU.

He fell out with the EU? Ryanair were quite active in the anti-Brexit campaign.

He finds some of their rules annoying (particularly the EU261 stuff) but I don't recall seeing anything overtly anti-EU in general from him.

irishbucsfan

I have to say I’m impressed by Casey’s campaign.

He’s a total gombeen but he’s run a pretty excellent modern social media campaign. Like a small time Pena Nieto with the constant lies and misdirection

stephen_n

Podge_irl wrote: »

He fell out with the EU? Ryanair were quite active in the anti-Brexit campaign.

He finds some of their rules annoying (particularly the EU261 stuff) but I don't recall seeing anything overtly anti-EU in general from him.

He was waxing lyrical about them blocking his take over attempts of Aer Lingus. Don’t actually think he is anti EU, but has had a fair few run ins with them in the last few years.

Podge_irl

stephen_n wrote: »

He was waxing lyrical about them blocking his take over attempts of Aer Lingus. Don’t actually think he is anti EU, but has had a fair few run ins with them in the last few years.

Ah ok, I do actually remember that alright. He is who he is, can't put a huge amount of faith into what he says but you can put faith in what he spends money on

mfceiling

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I 100% guarantee you that if his numbers are good we'll see Trump style right wing candidates elected in the next GE.

I don't think so Venjur. There's 2 real political parties in ireland and it's always one or the other.

One of the things I found mad was my wife "telling" me to vote FG. The reason was "my family have always been FG".
My best mate who lives in donegal votes FF because "my father and his father voted FF".

There might be a hunger for change but it will always be FF or FG come polling day.

sydthebeat

mfceiling wrote: »

I don't think so Venjur. There's 2 real political parties in ireland and it's always one or the other.

One of the things I found mad was my wife "telling" me to vote FG. The reason was "my family have always been FG".
My best mate who lives in donegal votes FF because "my father and his father voted FF".

There might be a hunger for change but it will always be FF or FG come polling day.

They basically are the same party at this stage

Squidgy Black

mfceiling wrote: »

I don't think so Venjur. There's 2 real political parties in ireland and it's always one or the other.

One of the things I found mad was my wife "telling" me to vote FG. The reason was "my family have always been FG".
My best mate who lives in donegal votes FF because "my father and his father voted FF".

There might be a hunger for change but it will always be FF or FG come polling day.

The problem is, we're stuck in a fúcked up cycle. Nobody really votes Labour because they're a disaster, most down South still resent SF because of the troubles and the shadiness around their history, social democrats are just blowing hot air, Renua are well, Renua, People before Profit are all head melters.

So you either vote for who you think has done most for your constituency, or you vote for the party you always have.

I'll be honest, I'd probably be considered as part of the younger generation, and I never have a breeze as to who to vote for.

errlloyd

Squidgy Black wrote: »

I'll be honest, I'd probably be considered as part of the younger generation, and I never have a breeze as to who to vote for.

I consider myself politically aware and never have a notion who to vote for now that I think about it. I usually just vote party lines because my consituency is full of "back bench / junior minister" level hacks anyway.

Squidgy Black

errlloyd wrote: »

I consider myself politically aware and never have a notion who to vote for now that I think about it. I usually just vote party lines because my consituency is full of "back bench / junior minister" level hacks anyway.

I generally vote for whoever doesn't knock at my door and doesn't sound/look as much of a pretentious dick.

So it's hard to pick.

Neil3030

It's actually a perfect system; two parties straddling either side of centre. The world over you see electorates tiring of a party that's been in power for a while, and switching to an alternative. The U.S. goes Republican - Democrat, the UK goes Tory - Labour, we go FF - FG.

Since our parties offer more or less the same centrist ideology, people can have "change" without any real profound change, leaving things pretty stable and not at risk to extreme ideas.

CatFromHue

errlloyd wrote: »

I consider myself politically aware and never have a notion who to vote for now that I think about it. I usually just vote party lines because my consituency is full of "back bench / junior minister" level hacks anyway.

I have the philosophy of who do I definitely not want in and then work back.

Squidgy Black

Squidgy Black wrote: »

The problem is, we're stuck in a fúcked up cycle.

Compared to politics almost anywhere else in the world I think we are as far removed from ****ed up as you can get.

The fact that our current government is a minority government yet still produces a budget that has medium to long term goals in mind as opposed to being purely election focused is quite frankly startling.

Proportional representation is the gift that will give and give and give.

thomond2006

stephen_n wrote: »

That must have been before Michael O’Leary fell out with the EU.

He doesn't like a lot of the bureaucrats/bureaucracy but the maintenance of the EU is vital to Ryanair. A hard Brexit as it stands means there will be no flights allowed between the UK and the EU as the UK will be out of the CAA / Open Skies. A bilateral agreement will be required to restore this and the clock is ticking...

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

He doesn't like a lot of the bureaucrats/bureaucracy but the maintenance of the EU is vital to Ryanair. A hard Brexit as it stands means there will be no flights allowed between the UK and the EU as the UK will be out of the CAA / Open Skies. A bilateral agreement will be required to restore this and the clock is ticking...

It's pure cakeism also. I mean, the GDPR is bureaucratic and created a lot of work for me. If someone asked me what I thought of the EU I'd look at all the HR requirements and privacy requirements (amongst others) when trying to run a business and I could easily turn around and say - "too much regulation" the EU is too bureaucratic.

But the reality is that those HR requirements massively improve the workplace for workers. The GDPR massively improves data security for people in all walks of life. Would businesses take it upon themselves to enact these? History says no.

I'm sure whoever manufactures cotton buds will be apoplectic at the incoming ban on single use plastics. But that doesn't mean it isn't a really good thing.

So the EU basically ends up getting a lot of stick from businesses but the businesses themselves are insular entities that don't generally look much beyond their bottom line.

The real joke of it is when you consider that the EU harmonises regulations from 28 different countries, it probably is responsible for the greatest reduction in bureaucracy in history!

thomond2006

https://www.the42.ie/aviva-stadium-american-college-football-4305034-Oct2018/

stephen_n

thomond2006 wrote: »

https://www.the42.ie/aviva-stadium-american-college-football-4305034-Oct2018/

Did that not die from lack of interest the previous time?

thomond2006

stephen_n wrote: »

Did that not die from lack of interest the previous time?

The two teams that played in 2016 were not big schools. 2014 in Croke Park got 53k which would fill the Aviva.

It's a pretty phenomenal coup as I was concerned that the 2016 relative dud would be an issue. ND-Navy in 2020 will sell out like 2012 did, as for the rest who knows?

Squidgy Black

ND-Navy had a massive travelling support as well didn't they? They estimated at the time that 35k Americans bought tickets which is an insane number.

Even 2016 had around 40k people at it.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

https://www.the42.ie/aviva-stadium-american-college-football-4305034-Oct2018/

I was at Army v Navy a good few years ago. If you go, upper tier only if you actually want to see anything. If you end up lower tier you see f all with all the players, coach's, etc on the side line. We were lower tier and ended up just knocking back pints as there was only a load of fat arses to look at!

thomond2006

Addison Yummy Fashion wrote: »

I was at Army v Navy a good few years ago. If you go, upper tier only if you actually want to see anything. If you end up lower tier you see f all with all the players, coach's, etc on the side line. We were lower tier and ended up just knocking back pints as there was only a load of fat arses to look at!

I would assume that the first few rows would be cordoned off?

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

I would assume that the first few rows would be cordoned off?

Aviva is just too low on the lower tier to be workable with American football. I was a good bit back too. At least 20 rows

awec

So Sinead O'Connor is a muslim now...

Synode

John Reynolds dead. Shocking stuff. Spent many a night in the Red Box/POD and at the Picnic. Really had a huge effect on Irish club culture and festivals. RIP

swiwi_

awec wrote: »

So Sinead O'Connor is a muslim now...

Also heard she’s a big McCloskey fan.

Nothing compares to Stu.

Clegg

The amount of votes Peter Casey received scares me.

The Pro Casey posts in the Exit Poll thread also annoys me to no end. Left wing bashing circle jerk.

Clegg

Clegg wrote: »

The amount of votes Peter Casey received scares me.

The Pro Casey posts in the Exit Poll thread also annoys me to no end. Left wing bashing circle jerk.

Just came here to say the same thing. Looks like he'll get 20 - 25% of the vote.

I truly hope this isn't the start of something but I can't help but feel that opportunists in one or more of the major parties will have taken note of this.

stephen_n

Renua have got their campaign strategy for the general election after that.

Neil3030

I only saw the snippet from a Pat Kenny debate where Casey spoke about Travelers turning down a house.

It was culturally insensitive populism, but it didn't terrify me too much. Comparisons to Trump are probably a little OTT.

Have I missed something more heinous?

thomond2006

None of the major parties will go down this road and we'll elect another centre right government in the next general election. Maybe I'm in the minority but I don't see this as the major protest vote or game changer thaf it will be made out to be.

I don't think MDH came out of the debates well and Peter Casey was the flavour of the month that dominated the media coverage.

sydthebeat

It was a protest vote knowing the outcome of the election was already very safe...
But casey touched a nerve of a lot of people, even if by accident.

stephen_n

thomond2006 wrote: »

None of the major parties will go down this road and we'll elect another centre right government in the next general election. Maybe I'm in the minority but I don't see this as the major protest vote or game changer thaf it will be made out to be.

I don't think MDH came out of the debates well and Peter Casey was the flavour of the month that dominated the media coverage.

Without going after the minorities his campaign was nothing and going nowhere. Instead he got nearly 25% of the vote, admittedly off a very small turnout. There’s no way any of the big parties will go down that route, but we will see politicians who will stoke this for their benefit.

Squidgy Black

The turnout for this vote was terrible. Most people saying they'd didn't care or it was a pointless exercise. Casey hit the right notes with a lot of people (unfortunately) and to be honest I think he garnered support of people who have that belief and were amazed someone in the political sphere actually voiced it.

But not a hope in hell FF/FG or Labour would even dream about making similar comments at a party level. And realistically we'll have another centre right party in control for god knows how long.

CatFromHue

Neil3030 wrote: »

I only saw the snippet from a Pat Kenny debate where Casey spoke about Travelers turning down a house.

It was culturally insensitive populism, but it didn't terrify me too much. Comparisons to Trump are probably a little OTT.

Have I missed something more heinous?

It wasn't a house, it was 5 or 6 brand new specially built ones costing 1.7m to build.

When you have protests about housing shortage and protestors occupying vacant private properties to have council built houses turned down as they don't come with stables and grazing land is bonkers. My understanding is that currently the animals aren't on the halting site either but on a separate site that is rented nearby.

I didn't vote for Casey and thought he would be rubbish at the job but he's right saying what he did about the turned down houses.

The bit they spoke about travellers on the podcast took less than a few mins of an interview that last 40 mins. They were talking about the housing crisis, social housing and people turning down offers more than once, then he brought up the situation in Tipp. It wasn't a case where he only went on the podcast to give out about travellers and no more.

The reaction to what he said would have been what got a lot of peoples back up too.

thomond2006

stephen_n wrote: »

Without going after the minorities his campaign was nothing and going nowhere. Instead he got nearly 25% of the vote, admittedly off a very small turnout. There’s no way any of the big parties will go down that route, but we will see politicians who will stoke this for their benefit.

I think this sums up what I think.

https://twitter.com/Rundmc6/status/1055946580975648770?s=19

thomond2006

I can't get over how poorly LnR did. Her campaign never got going and all was overshadowed by Casey but I would have thought the SF base would get her at least 10%.

sydthebeat

thomond2006 wrote: »

I can't get over how poorly LnR did. Her campaign never got going and all was overshadowed by Casey but I would have thought the SF base would get her at least 10%.

She stood for nothing though.
At least freeman had a policy, even if very narrow.

I think this was very much a pr exercise for SF

Buer

LnR ran a terrible campaign. Her wishy washy response on her salary this week ensured she dropped from getting her expenses back (12%) to being a total also ran.

She danced between various stances. The poppy, taking the industrial wage, vaccinations which lost her votes without impressing in any way to make up any losses.

Squidgy Black

I don't really follow things that closely, and I hadn't even realised she was running until I had my ballot card in my hand. Which sort of says it all.

DGRulz

The Casey vote has left me very confused. On one hand he went from polling peanuts to a quarter of the vote with a few through away comments. He hit a nerve with a lot of people and there's a conversation that needs to be had there about bringing the Traveling community more into society and dealing with the odd scouts better. Perhaps look at what different country's have done to include indigenous peoples in their own societies? But on the other hand people are calling this a protest vote? What are they protesting? Higgens has no real connection to Leo and co and despite some of the muck shoveled out during the debates, the office of President has no power over matters like housing.

Leah Ní Riada ran a horrible campaign. She failed to say anything to really dismiss the anti-vaxer thing, was then shown up to be a massive hypocrite with the salery thing and then there was the constant touching Higgens during the last debate. She was also the only candidate besides Higgens they put up posters, so people should have known her face. I saw someone on Reddit point out that weeks ago before the SF candidate was picked a question mark and SF logo was polling at ~13%, she doesn't look likes she's going to get half that. Casey will likely have swallowed a lot of the votes SF would have expected to go to Ní Riada.

Ideally I would have liked to see Higgens get 70% but it's looking like mid-50s and when you consider the turnout that's mid-50s of a 30-ish % turnout. Similarly though, Casey is only getting mid-20s of 30-ish% so it hard to quantify what any of this means on a national level.

CatFromHue

my take on it was that his was a protest vote to the reaction to what he said, not just for what he said.

so many of the people who criticized him were the same people who are very vocal about the housing problem. yet there is a purpose built housing block being left empty for no good reason at all and not a peep out of those people.

irishbucsfan

I have no trouble believing it was a protest vote. People are that daft.

But it is a minor wake up call that blatant and overt racism will work with some of the population, even for a blatantly poor candidate. I'm not really concerned about that leading to any actual power in the hands of people like that, but I am worried that one of the two big parties will skew that way in future.

mfceiling

irishbucsfan wrote: »

but I am worried that one of the two big parties will skew that way in future.

They won't. Neither of them stand for anything. They both care about "the rich, the poor, the working class, the middle class, the sick, the infirm, the young, the elderly, the students, the self employed, the unemployed, farmers, factory workers, the public servants and the private sector".

They're 2 half's of the one arse!!

stephen_n

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I have no trouble believing it was a protest vote. People are that daft.

But it is a minor wake up call that blatant and overt racism will work with some of the population, even for a blatantly poor candidate. I'm not really concerned about that leading to any actual power in the hands of people like that, but I am worried that one of the two big parties will skew that way in future.

I don’t think there is any risk of either FF or FG taking up these policies, as much as I dislike both, they are far too close to the centre for that to happen. However some politicians on the extreme right might lock on to it and stir it up. As we have seen in other countries it will gain traction and cause divisions. Then again, just because it doesn’t have a voice at the moment, doesn’t mean it’s not there and this vote highlights that.

DGRulz

Out of interest, putting aside the traveller comments. What are peoples thoughts on Casey's comments on Ireland becoming a welfare state?

Squidgy Black

DGRulz wrote: »

Out of interest, putting aside the traveller comments. What are peoples thoughts on Casey's comments on Ireland becoming a welfare state?

He's not far off the mark. There's a section of society who believe, or more so demands, that the government fulfill their every need, despite not actually contributing anything themselves.

irishbucsfan

DGRulz wrote: »

Out of interest, putting aside the traveller comments. What are peoples thoughts on Casey's comments on Ireland becoming a welfare state?

It's vapid and its just the same nonsense that gets wheeled out everywhere else. But the only reason he said it of course is because he needed to offer people the opportunity to triangulate, so that they can launder their distrust of minorities through vague economic excuses.