Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Nika Bolokov

grindle wrote: »

Some ICO dev I talk to reckons BTC will hit $3k-$4k and ETH $300-$400 over coming months.

It's all guessing though, trying to spot patterns in something this young and volatile is shaky.

The hundreds for BTC is probably more likely for a while anyway if the post Decemeber buyers realise it's not a road to riches and the losses start to hurt.

There were posters on here saying at the time they were investing 10 grand etc .....

Bob24

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Is anyone buying now ? Or shud wait...

Buying during a fairly extended downwards phase is probably not the best idea as there is no visibility on how much further down it can go.

The best move would be to buy as soon as you think a clear upwards phase has been initiated. But it’s not rocket science and there will always be a risk to get it wrong (it could recover for a day or two and start dipping again).

grindle

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

The hundreds for BTC is probably more likely for a while anyway if the post Decemeber buyers realise it's not a road to riches and the losses start to hurt.

There were posters on here saying at the time they were investing 10 grand etc .....

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

h0neybadger

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

smacl

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $3,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $3,000 per BTC

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

That was some price jump in 2 minutes

Tinder Surprise

h0neybadger wrote: »

Anything under $4,000 for BTC will be severely problematic considering the difficulty in mining.

Only a very small handful of countries can run miners cheap enough that miners will break even at $4,000 per BTC

https://ibb.co/eWBnAH

Hope you dont mind me asking....what are you currently mining at the moment?

h0neybadger

smacl wrote: »

That was some price jump in 2 minutes

When I posted it originally, I tried to attach a pic but it was too large.
When I opened it, I realised 3k still rules out almost every country except Venezuela!
So I up it to 4K

h0neybadger

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Hope you dont mind me asking....what are you currently mining at the moment?

$3,133 per BTC.

drunkmonkey

h0neybadger wrote: »

When I posted it originally, I tried to attach a pic but it was too large.
When I opened it, I realised 3k still rules out almost every country except Venezuela!
So I up it to 4K

That all depends on how large an operation and what way your mining.

PopePalpatine

I suppose Venezuela has the distinct advantage over other oil-dependent countries of not hitting the high 40s for half the year.

Tinder Surprise

Surprised not to see Iceland higher up the list tbh

aint they attracting lots of mining farms due to their climate and cheap renewable energy?

Nika Bolokov

grindle wrote: »

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

It is very hard to know but today again there seems to be more major negative moves down.

Only time will tell !!

Bob24

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

grindle wrote: »

Sub $1k BTC? 95% drop from ATH - I dunno, seems unrealistic to me. Media has become largely positive about everything, subreddits are still busy and a rake of ICOs have projects lifting off this year, plus they have huge marketing funds. Once a lot of those dev team's vested funds get released they'll likely be piling a portion of their profits back into ETH and BTC.

It'll be an interesting thing to look back on anyway. More data to incorrectly apply to future events. :cool:

It is very hard to know but today again there seems to be more major negative moves down.

Only time will tell !!

Hard to predict indeed, but it's not looking good. 2-3 more days like this and it will reach the early Feb bottom again. If it goes past that I'll see it as a very bad signal for the coming months ...

lifeandtimes

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction

The highs of Nov,Dec and Jan haven't balanced out yet so there will be more of this for a while.

I fully believe the market will stabilise and begin a bull run again but only time will tell

Blacktie.

The crypto markets aren't the laws of physics.

lifeandtimes

Blacktie. wrote: »

The crypto markets aren't the laws of physics.

The laws of physics apply to everything

What happened in the world outside of crytpos (regulations, banning, promotion, integration) all have an effect on cryptos.

The fear of panic buying or selling doesn't come from nowhere and as such Newtons 3rd law applies in 1 way or another

Blacktie.

lifeandtimes wrote:

The laws of physics apply to everything

I'm not even gonna bother.

ignorance is strength

lifeandtimes wrote: »

The laws of physics apply to everything

What happened in the world outside of crytpos (regulations, banning, promotion, integration) all have an effect on cryptos.

The fear of panic buying or selling doesn't come from nowhere and as such Newtons 3rd law applies in 1 way or another

But not any law you chose!! Applying casual physics knowledge to crypto currency markets is part of the reason for the bubble. Let this be the “When my shoeshine boy was giving me stock tips, I knew it was time to sell” moment.

Arrival

So who's prepared to ride this crash out for possibly a year or more? Obviously not saying this is how long it could be for sure, but it's happened before and it's interesting to think about people's willingness to hold for so long during a decent sized dip. I think we haven't reached full on despair yet.

I bought my BTC and ETH with the expectation to hold it for at least 4-5 years minimum no matter what lows it went to during crashes in those years so I keep reminding myself of that while checking the prices a lot less. Ethereum will surely have big news this year though that'll hopefully impact the price of ETH and maybe even cause the flippening many people are anticipating, and that would very interesting to see what happens to the price of BTC because it's not like the fundamentals of BTC will have changed by then and it may even have more scaling solutions by then so hopefully it'll basically just result in the two being entirely independent from each other growth wise

Elessar

Arrival wrote: »

So who's prepared to ride this crash out for possibly a year or more? Obviously not saying this is how long it could be for sure, but it's happened before and it's interesting to think about people's willingness to hold for so long during a decent sized dip. I think we haven't reached full on despair yet.

I bought my BTC and ETH with the expectation to hold it for at least 4-5 years minimum no matter what lows it went to during crashes in those years so I keep reminding myself of that while checking the prices a lot less. Ethereum will surely have big news this year though that'll hopefully impact the price of ETH and maybe even cause the flippening many people are anticipating, and that would very interesting to see what happens to the price of BTC because it's not like the fundamentals of BTC will have changed by then and it may even have more scaling solutions by then so hopefully it'll basically just result in the two being entirely independent from each other growth wise

Yep, gonna ride it out. If you think about it, those who got rich off bitcoin wouldn't have been if they sold at every other crash. Not saying anyone here will be rich but food for thought. I'm still positive for the crypto market overall, it seems to happen in cycles, bull, bear, bull but the overall trend has been growth. Just a case of how long until positive sentiment returns. Bitcoin is a big issue though - most alts are paired to it and it singlehandedly defines the market. It needs to be decoupled and there is at least one exchange launching this year which will have direct fiat/alt pairs and bank transfers I'm hoping will accelerate this (which coincidentally I've put 50% of my portfolio into!).

ligerdub

lifeandtimes wrote:

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction

The highs of Nov,Dec and Jan haven't balanced out yet so there will be more of this for a while.

I fully believe the market will stabilise and begin a bull run again but only time will tell

Ironic you used Newton as a reference, a man who lost his arse investing in the South Sea Company, one of the biggest bubbles to burst in the history of financial markets. That didn't shoot back up either.

Cally Caleigh

It's just the usual volatility inherent to all cryptocurrencies.
Nothing fundamental to the technology or it's potential has changed in the last 2 months.
Google banning of cryptocurrency advertisements (which were mostly ICO scams anyway), and the mt.gox lawyer possibly dumping a load more bitcoins onto the market in the future has put the fear into people.
As Baron Rothschild said in the 18th century:
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

JohnnyFlash

ligerdub wrote: »

Ironic you used Newton as a reference, a man who lost his arse investing in the South Sea Company, one of the biggest bubbles to burst in the history of financial markets. That didn't shoot back up either.

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

Greater in terms of the speed of the rise & the angle of the chart over a short timeframe, not greater in terms of value lost if it gets sent to zero. Yet.

It's still a very small market.

drunkmonkey

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The cryptocurrency bubble is of an order of magnitude greater than the South Sea bubble, the Dutch Tulip mania, or the Japanese housing bubble as well. It’s fairly unprecedented.

All bubbles burst, there a tiny fraction compared to the ones that succeed. You’ve named 3 from the last 400 years.
Here’s the funny thing, The Dutch still export billions of tulips every year, ships still sail and the Japanese still buy houses.

I wouldn’t write off the bitcoin and if your calling it a bubble it’s already burst as most bubbles aren’t noticed until afterwards.

Bob24

drunkmonkey wrote: »

if your calling it a bubble it’s already burst as most bubbles aren’t noticed until afterwards.

True that most people will only notice a bubble after it starts bursting. But it doesn’t mean that when it gets noticed it is done bursting. See the Irish property bubble as an exemple. By 2009 most people would have recognised there was a bubble, but it took another few years to have clarity on the extend of the correction and be able to say the bubble was done bursting (and to be honest in 2009 no one could have accurately predicted how much longer it would take and how low prices would go).

TanyGray

I put 2.5k into but coin just over 3 years ago.
It was just after a huge tumble in the value that I bought it.
Sold half of it for a nice few quid just after Christmas since it was in the news so much and had gone up. I wonder should I sell what's left, since it's still a nice profit or just leave it and forget it for another 3 years or so. Decisions.

But as with any investment, everybody is an expert. Tbh I believe that nobody knows the future and I just buy and forget. I did the same with property and thought I'd really fked up, but it turns out I didn't. Its all just a time game.

drunkmonkey

Bob24 wrote: »

True that most people will only notice a bubble after it starts bursting. But it doesn’t mean that when it gets noticed it is done bursting. See the Irish property bubble as an exemple. By 2009 most people would have recognised there was a bubble, but it took another few years to have clarity on the extend of the correction and be able to say the bubble was done bursting (and to be honest in 2009 no one could have accurately predicted how much longer it would take and how low prices would go).

Yes and it became to expensive to build houses, much like bitcoin, it has a bottom where it no longer becomes feasible for anyone to make bitcoins, I put that figure of a rock bottom of about $2000 a coin.
What happens when no more start coming online much like housing, price goes up.
Digital currency is the way forward but it’s got a long way to go. The bubble if it is a bubble hasn’t even started.

HerrKuehn

Stop selling you idiots! arrggh

Bob24

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Yes and it became to expensive to build houses, much like bitcoin, it has a bottom where it no longer becomes feasible for anyone to make bitcoins, I put that figure of a rock bottom of about $2000 a coin.
What happens when no more start coming online much like housing, price goes up.
Digital currency is the way forward but it’s got a long way to go. The bubble if it is a bubble hasn’t even started.

The difference is that everyone needs a home so demand is guaranteed at a minimum level defined by the current population. Not everyone needs bitcoins.

JohnnyFlash

HerrKuehn wrote: »

Stop selling you idiots! arrggh

You buying at the moment amigo?

lifeandtimes

Bob24 wrote: »

The difference is that everyone needs a home so demand is guaranteed at a minimum level defined by the current population. Not everyone needs bitcoins.

Not everyone needs cars but there's nearly 2 for eber household.

It's supply and demand and as more business start accepting crypto it will go up.

Arizona accepting btc for taxs, the American congress meeting to discuss crytpo and saying "they want to get regulation right the first time" , Asian countrys looking to tax it, these are all positives towards it becoming more and more mainstream. Google and Facebook banning crypto ads was a very positive step becuase what they are actually doing to banning scam ICOs to protect people but that headline doesn't get as many clicks.

Like marmite people either love or hate crypto and are entitled to their opinion.

Only time will tell but in a digital world digital currency only seems right

crushproof

At this point I've not much choice but to hold for the long term. No point in cashing out considering how much its already wiped off my profits.

I'm taking a break from reading the forum (it will difficult to beat temptation to look) and checking my portfolio and shall come back in a few months and see where I'm at!

lifeandtimes

crushproof wrote: »

At this point I've not much choice but to hold for the long term. No point in cashing out considering how much its already wiped off my profits.

I'm taking a break from reading the forum (it will difficult to beat temptation to look) and checking my portfolio and shall come back in a few months and see where I'm at!

Someone told me there's a site or app that will lock your crypto for you without letting you access it for an extended time of you chooseing.

Great idea for long term hodlers

banie01

lifeandtimes wrote: »

Someone told me there's a site or app that will lock your crypto for you without letting you access it for an extended time of you chooseing.

Great idea for long term hodlers

As opposed to a wallet or self controlled off line cold storage?
It also prevents anyone using it from taking advantage of a short term spike in price and immediate selling.
Its an app that there is really no reasonable need for, if one is using a wallet.

lifeandtimes

banie01 wrote: »

As opposed to a wallet or self controlled off line cold storage?
It also prevents anyone using it from taking advantage of a short term spike in price and immediate selling.
Its an app that there is really no reasonable need for, if one is using a wallet.

Ehm it's the same as bank accounts that require you to give 1 months notice before you can access your funds.

Some people cant trust themselves with their own wallet so the advantage is it stops people panic selling, like I said the point is long term holders who want to forget and check back in a year or whatever, not the day traders to take advantage of a spike and sell.

Suits some and not others

annie.t

ligerdub wrote: »

Ironic you used Newton as a reference, a man who lost his arse investing in the South Sea Company, one of the biggest bubbles to burst in the history of financial markets. That didn't shoot back up either.

How many South Sea Company bubbles there were in the history? Cause you know this is the third (or is it the fourth?) bubble in btc history right?
And it's not the last one

smacl

lifeandtimes wrote: »

Someone told me there's a site that will lock your crypto for you without letting you access it for an extended time

Bitgrail? :pac:

BloodBath

annie.t wrote: »

How many South Sea Company bubbles there were in the history? Cause you know this is the third (or is it the fourth?) bubble in btc history right?
And it's not the last one

You still think it's going to recover from this? Some people really are delusional.

This is the first real bubble. No drops in the past are comparable. Makes me wonder if people are even capable of reading a basic graph.

banie01

lifeandtimes wrote: »

Ehm it's the same as bank accounts that require you to give 1 months notice before you can access your funds.

Some people cant trust themselves with their own wallet so the advantage is it stops people panic selling, like I said the point is long term holders who want to forget and check back in a year or whatever, not the day traders to take advantage of a spike and sell.

Suits some and not others

No its not!
A bank account contains FIAT currency that isnt subject to rapid swings in value.(Loss or gains barring hyper inflation)
Locking funds into a notice account also comes with the benefit of increased interest rates for the period the funds are "locked" earning you money whilst your funds are outside your control.
A bank account also comes with a guarantee of funds protection if the bank goes tits up!

Does the app you mentioned pay interest?
Does it offer a state backed guarantee?
Does it offer any advantage to a wallet other than a protection against "panic selling"?
Does the app even offer an advantage over holding the coins on an exchange?

The hodler mentality of just power through has some serious flaws in certain aituations, especially when an emergency strikes and immediate liquidity is needed.

To be quite frank its ridiculous to lock away funds in an app because you are worried about panic selling.
If someone has that little impulse control or knowledge regarding their investments, they should not be investing in the 1st place.

annie.t

BloodBath wrote: »

You still think it's going to recover from this? Some people really are delusional.

This is the first real bubble. No drops in the past are comparable. Makes me wonder if people are even capable of reading a basic graph.

No it's not the first real bubble. And its called a chart btw

Chart above is just an example

About "no drops in the past are comparable" part - how long are you in crypto? are you even? We are going even lower imo but its not the end.

lifeandtimes

banie01 wrote: »

A bank account contains FIAT currency that isnt subject to rapid swings in value.(Loss or gains barring hyper inflation)
Locking funds into a notice account also comes with the benefit of increased interest rates for the period the funds are "locked" earning you money whilst your funds are outside your control.

Does the app you mentioned pay interest?
Does it offer any advantage to a wallet other than a protection against "panic selling"?
Does the app even offer an advantage over holding the coins on an exchange?

The hodler mentality of just power through has some serious flaws in certain aituations, especially when an emergency strikes and immediate liquidity is needed.

To be quite frank its ridiculous to lock away funds in an app because you are worried about panic selling.
If someone has that little impulse control or knowledge regarding their investments, they should not be investing in the 1st place.

People can do what they want with their money and crytpo currency, just because they might be susceptible to panic selling and would rather put their coins away for a while doesn't give you the right to tell them they shouldnt be buying it

Just because you think it's stupid doesn't mean that it is.

The people who bought bitcoin years ago and sold say they wish they had just put it away and forgot, some people can be control themselves some can't and would benifit from it.

Instead of having a go at me about something I mentioned maybe just say it's not for me and move on, infact it wasn't even you I suggested it too so :-P

banie01

lifeandtimes wrote: »

People can do what they want with their money and crytpo currency, just because they might be susceptible to panic selling and would rather put their coins away for a while doesn't give you the right to tell them they should be buying it

Just because you think it's stupid doesn't mean that it is.

The people who bought bitcoin years ago and sold say they wish they had just put it away and forgot, some people can be control themselves some can't and would benifit from it.

Instead of having a go at me about something I mentioned maybe just say it's not for me and move on, infact it wasn't even you I suggested it too so :-P

Well what I'd like for you to do is outline a response to the points I made highlighting why the app is a poor choice?

To defend your position with something other than

Just because you think it's stupid doesn't mean that it is.

I'm not having a go at you, I'm having a go at the advice you offered and if you can address the questions asked then I'm happy to maybe change my mind.
You know, the way discussion usually works?

Arrival

BloodBath wrote: »

You still think it's going to recover from this? Some people really are delusional.

This is the first real bubble. No drops in the past are comparable. Makes me wonder if people are even capable of reading a basic graph.

Why do people like you try to talk about things as if you know what you're talking when you don't know what you're talking about? Can you even name ten different cryptocurrencies besides the most known one's (BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP)? I ask this because someone who cannot do this proves that they haven't even done the most basic research and so their opinion is worthless -- for the same reason my opinion on rugby is worthless, I haven't got a clue about it so I don't bother trying to seem like I do. Do you even own any yet?

Anyway, yeah some people are delusional. That's great. Thanks for that insight.

lifeandtimes

banie01 wrote: »

Well what I'd like for you to do is outline a response to the points I made highlighting why the app is a poor choice?

To defend your position with something other than


I'm not having a go at you, I'm having a go at the advice you offered and if you can address the questions asked then I'm happy to maybe change my mind.
You know, the way discussion usually works?

Crushproof said
"I'm taking a break from reading the forum (it will difficult to beat temptation to look) and checking my portfolio and shall come back in a few months and see where I'm at!"

I commented on their post about something that might suit them.

I don't have to prove sh1te to you as it didn't concern you at all.

Laters!

banie01

lifeandtimes wrote: »

Crushproof said
"I'm taking a break from reading the forum (it will difficult to beat temptation to look) and checking my portfolio and shall come back in a few months and see where I'm at!"

I commented on their post about something that might suit them.

I don't have to prove sh1te to you as it didn't concern you at all.

Laters!

So thats a no then?
Thought so.

You offered someone with almost zero experience poor advice and rather than address the points raised are bailing on this part of the conversation?

ligerdub

annie.t wrote:

How many South Sea Company bubbles there were in the history? Cause you know this is the third (or is it the fourth?) bubble in btc history right? And it's not the last one

I never claimed Bitcoin was a bubble. I merely pointed out the "for every action, there's a reaction" claim with reference to financial markets was utter nonsense.

I notice that poster chose to ignore another Newtonian anomaly, roughly speaking "what goes up, must come down". I have no idea where bitcoin will go, and to honest it means nothing to me as I will not be buying/selling bitcoin any time soon, nor have I done so to date.

People who follow a "well it went down so it should go up" shouldn't be putting any of their money into the market (any market). There is almost zero basis of an argument following that sort of mantra. I'd say the same for people who tend to buy because prices are flying up too. It's that sort of rubbish that gets people into the poorhouse or into some sort of ponzi scheme and blaming everyone else for it.

BloodBath

annie.t wrote: »

No it's not the first real bubble. And its called a chart btw

Chart above is just an example

About "no drops in the past are comparable" part - how long are you in crypto? are you even? We are going even lower imo but its not the end.

Doesn't matter whether I'm in it or not. I'm stating opinions the same as you are. My instincts are usually good. It's nearly late March now. Where is this recovery?

All it is now is a bunch of greedy speculators flogging a dead horse and people who lost money desperately hoping it goes back up. The time to invest is gone. The smart money has moved onto other things.

I may be wrong and you can come back in December and show me how wrong I am but I'll stick by it now. I don't see it going back above 10k this year.

We'll see who is right.

We can all link charts.

Arrival wrote: »

Why do people like you try to talk about things as if you know what you're talking when you don't know what you're talking about? Can you even name ten different cryptocurrencies besides the most known one's (BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP)? I ask this because someone who cannot do this proves that they haven't even done the most basic research and so their opinion is worthless -- for the same reason my opinion on rugby is worthless, I haven't got a clue about it so I don't bother trying to seem like I do. Do you even own any yet?

Anyway, yeah some people are delusional. That's great. Thanks for that insight.

Your opinion is also worthless. It's nothing but speculation on everyones behalf. At least I can acknowledge that. You think you're an expert? So tell me what the valuation will be come December Mr. expert?

I have predicted 1000% increases in multiple shares albeit not currencies in the past and I'm not an expert.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Down below $7500 now.

Deary me... looks like this "correction" is not done yet...



This is a good observation on the HODL culture.

annie.t

BloodBath wrote: »

Doesn't matter whether I'm in it or not. I'm stating opinions the same as you are. My instincts are usually good. It's nearly late March now. Where is this recovery?

All it is now is a bunch of greedy speculators flogging a dead horse and people who lost money desperately hoping it goes back up. The time to invest is gone. The smart money has moved onto other things.

I may be wrong and you can come back in December and show me how wrong I am but I'll stick by it now. I don't see it going back above 10k this year.

I never said anything about December this year, never mentioned any dates actaully. This bubble was the longest ever in btc so it might be years until it comes back who knows, but it will comeback. Obviously it's like you said just an opinion of a randomer on the internet just like your opinion. Always DYOR