Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

ZeroThreat

smacl wrote: »

Yep, cause he'll feel so much better tomorrow morning a couple of hundred bucks down with a screaming hangover. It really beggers belief that that you criticise people here for wasting their money and then advocating pissing it up against a wall. As has just been said, you might be better sticking to AH.

Well someone posting under the moniker 'Pintman Paddy' is bound to advocate copious consumption of alcohol.

ZeroThreat

grindle wrote: »

It looks nice for him there, he'll be well looked after and there's plenty of his own kind there too! Better than that - those people know much less than him so he can appear to be authoritative!

"I haven't read a fúcking jot on this scam but it is a scam because bubble bubble pip pop!"
Such a waste of potential brainpower in that thread.

Well I'm more skeptical myself than I was as a crypto-newbie this time last year.

But the posters there just making one liners like 'I told them crypto was a scam',
probably doesn't even know crypto refers to more than just bitcoin so they see it all as a single entity.

rapul

Ah leave Johnny on up on his high horse over there and Paddy aswell what are you on about ,people thanking you for seeing the light haha your are comical you have absolutely no clue how any of this will play out as neither do I but come on stop acting like you helped people haha laughable go out and get pissed as that seems to be the best thing you would advise people to do with there money

And at Autochange personally I wouldn't have gone all in no matter how much on Vechain ,in my opinion bad investment and I haven't lost all my money by a long shot ,stick with the big boyos on top cause they will go back up

grindle

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Well I'm more skeptical myself than I was as a crypto-newbie this time last year.

Be sceptical of everything, it's the only way to make a relatively informed decision. Stay away from shíthole subreddits like /r/ethtrader and /r/cryptocurrency, browse something informative and dev-focussed instead and forget about the price.
And don't go all-in on appalling shítcoins.

What gets my goat is posters thinking JF was banned for having a dissenting view - nope, he just repeated those exact same "very enlightening" talking points a trillion times, ignores any positives and refuses to debate his points.
Leaving a sub-forum for a week or two then coming back to repeat the horseshít isn't a counterpoint.

Autochange

rapul wrote: »

Ah leave Johnny on up on his high horse over there and Paddy aswell what are you on about ,people thanking you for seeing the light haha your are comical you have absolutely no clue how any of this will play out as neither do I but come on stop acting like you helped people haha laughable go out and get pissed as that seems to be the best thing you would advise people to do with there money

And at Autochange personally I wouldn't have gone all in no matter how much on Vechain ,in my opinion bad investment and I haven't lost all my money by a long shot ,stick with the big boyos on top cause they will go back up

Maybe you are right but to be honest i got bored of looking into various projects only to have Bitcoin drop and pull everything down with it. It's rigged.

I lost interest and decided to put all into the project I felt had most potential

rapul

Fair dues can respect that ,goodluck mate I hope you get some returns

Autochange

rapul wrote: »

Fair dues can respect that ,goodluck mate I hope you get some returns

I hope we all do.

And those that got in much earlier than the big run up last year well done for having the foresight

el diablo

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

The people who listened are very happy they did (I've received multiple PMs from users who have thanked me for making them see the light early).

LOL, of course you have Paddy. :cool:

Deub

I am down overall as well but I am not worried. I knew it was high risk so invested only what I could lose.

I m not going to sell now. I will wait and see what happens. It can take years.

Dohnjoe

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Pussyhands, you have 181e left. My advice is to take that money out of crypto. Go out and have a steak dinner in FX Buckleys and a lash of pints. That will be much more enjoyable than looking at charts of red candles and your remaining investmeny dwindling to nothing.

And if it goes through the roof at a later stage? It's not like that hasn't happened before. Your predictions are personal opinions, complete shots in the dark, like many made in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016 and so on. My mate sold his BTC at 80 euros. My other friend dumped his Dash at around 10 euros. You can potentially imagine the regret involved on their side.

It may go to zero, it may stagnate, it may go through the roof. Speaking from personal knowledge, many portfolios are currently up hundreds of percent, some coins up thousands of percent

People who FOMO'd in at Dec are burnt, and if they sell for a pittance, they run the (very real) chance of watching it rocket up at a later stage.

Benildus

Deub wrote: »

I am down overall as well but I am not worried. I knew it was high risk so invested only what I could lose.

I m not going to sell now. I will wait and see what happens. It can take years.

Likewise, i'm significantly down.



I invested what I could afford to lose, if i didn't invest it in Crypto it would have gone to Linkedfinance (for investment there) or my Davy account for buying shares.

Dades

IMO, the ones who consistently shout at people to HODL are partly to blame for people who have lost 80% or more of their investment.

Hodling crypto is a "thing", and where most people won't outward tell people to buy a coin, many have no problem encouraging people to hold when the arse is visibly falling out of the market. It's been a chorus of bad advice since January.

rapul

Nobody should hold on anyone's advice ,it's only people's opinions that others might be following ,no one to blame but themselves ,hold sell who cares I would assume people can think for themselves

Also for the naysayers ,I'm up a good bit today on my holdings and why is that because I did hold and wait but maybe I was just lucky?!?!?!?

makeorbrake

Dades wrote: »

IMO, the ones who consistently shout at people to HODL are partly to blame for people who have lost 80% or more of their investment.

Hodling crypto is a "thing", and where most people won't outward tell people to buy a coin, many have no problem encouraging people to hold when the arse is visibly falling out of the market. It's been a chorus of bad advice since January.

It's hard to say. As regards 'advice', I think everyone should be mature enough to understand that we all make our own decisions. That's true of everything really - but given that crypto is so incredibly unpredictable, it's especially true.

I don't really suggest HODL to anyone. However, if you have a long term belief in the fundamentals of a coin and you see it maturing over the long term, it may not be a bad option. Of course, people should also always take profit if there's a significant accumulation of same. HODL served me well to the tune of about a 4200% increase...albeit it wasn't simply 'true believer' HODL'ing...there was a situational element that meant that it suited my circumstances to do that.

I empathise with those that got stung ATH - but it's clear from their posts above that they understand the nature of it.

I'm not sure if you can cast blame - nobody complained about market manipulation on the way up - and people here are just making their best guesses. It's a discussion forum and everyone is entitled to their own opinion. There is no obligation on anyone to act on the opinion or 'advice' of others.

However, if you were to cast blame, the media is where I would start. It can't be trusted in any area but in the case of crypto, it's just full of lies and vested interests.

Whelo79

Crazy gains today, Eth up almost 20%. You could have bought at $169 yesterday and sell at $205 right now.

sexmag

Whelo79 wrote: »

Crazy gains today, Eth up almost 20%. You could have bought at $169 yesterday and sell at $205 right now.

I'm quote suspicious of this gain,10 billion in 24 hours,not good but I think it was the news about Morgan Stanley that helped the increase

https://cryptopotato.com/morgan-stanley-to-launch-bitcoin-swap-too-early-to-say/

Grumpypants

sexmag wrote: »

I'm quote suspicious of this gain,10 billion in 24 hours,not good but I think it was the news about Morgan Stanley that helped the increase

https://cryptopotato.com/morgan-stanley-to-launch-bitcoin-swap-too-early-to-say/

Nah it was because i decided to start buying again. I sent my sepa transfer so of course it shoots up in the day it takes old money to move

Tinder Surprise

I'm still looking for a valid explanation as to why the market rose so much in the weeks leading up to the peak in Jan 2018 :

Aug 2017 : $100 bil
JAN 2018 : $828 bil
SEP 2018 : $139 bil

..and then its retraction

grindle

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

I'm still looking for a valid explanation as to why the market rose so much in the weeks leading up to the peak in Jan 2018 :

Aug 2017 : $100 bil
JAN 2018 : $828 bil
SEP 2018 : $139 bil

..and then its retraction

Total cap hasn't dropped that low yet, but: Really?
Hype, massively illiquid markets, Tether, genuine post-Thanksgiving boom where a huge amount of people who have zero interest in crypto but a large interest in "free money" pushed large sums in, then a profit take.
Easy valid explanation.

Tinder Surprise

grindle wrote: »

Total cap hasn't dropped that low yet.

Oops my bad, typo...sorry!

Expecting another Thanksgiving influx? and why so severe last year?

lawred2

some people made some serious cash

small country foreign debt levels of cash

About 95% of crypto investors got rinsed

grindle

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Expecting another Thanksgiving influx?

Not unless the super-rich reckon they can entice people into another hilarious pump so soon after, in which case they'd want to stop shorting everything in the next month. Crypto was all over the news last year, everybody knows how high it went and how hard it has fallen. The only people who should be left are those looking 5-10 years out and whichever enterprises are piloting blockchains.

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

and why so severe last year?

Even though BTC owned the headlines (just like the average pleb on the street thinks of Guetta when you mention electronic music, Nickelback when you mention rock, post-Black album Metallica when you mention metal, etc etc) the entire run was caused by news of huge Fortune 500s getting involved with Ethereum and the EEA announcement was pretty astonishing at the time, it kept snowballing and adding huge names through the year.
Pre-Ethereum you had a fanciful fiat-and-government destroying shítcoin helmed by some of the most awkward and routinely deceitful cúnts alive.
Ethereum pops out with actual economic use-cases and all these companies and governments go "Ah! Now I see the point of this tech."

Also, low liquidity= harsh movements in both directions, Tether was rinsing through the system, many or most exchanges wash trading upwards... It was easy for people with millions to create new millions from FOMO.

JJJJNR

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

I'm still looking for a valid explanation as to why the market rose so much in the weeks leading up to the peak in Jan 2018 :

Aug 2017 : $100 bil
JAN 2018 : $828 bil
SEP 2018 : $139 bil

..and then its retraction

If you remember back around that time north Korea was testing and threatening the US with what from the outside looked like a reasonable amount of force, the influx of money was from people looking at bitcoin as a safe haven in the event of a total wipe out of the dollar.

This is the only logical explanation I can think of, I plan on running ML algorithms to back up my claim as the data is available to analyse, including time-lines for every tweet trump made at the time, I don't have the time as I'm working on other projects, but I'm going to get to it at some stage.

This is why I personally don’t think there will be a bull run on bitcoin 2018, the external factors are not there, unless some other nation threaten the US ie. Russia or China, or there is a huge global dump of the dollar, which is already happening but at a much slower pace. I still back block chain though in one shape or another as a future technology in the services sector, it'll be used for transactional use everywhere.

Dohnjoe

JJJJNR wrote: »

If you remember back around that time north Korea was testing and threatening the US with what from the outside looked like a reasonable amount of force, the influx of money was from people looking at bitcoin as a safe haven in the event of a total wipe out of the dollar.

Just no. It was FOMO pure and simple. Back in 2013, BTC made headlines all over the world when it hit 1k. That created the 2013 bubble, the dramatic spike and subsequent crash

Dec/Jan was almost identical, except that previously BTC hit 10k (made headlines) then almost hit 20k (making more headlines), that money then flowed into the alts and people saw the "opportunity" to make a lot of money on the alts because "they missed out on BTC"

Friends, colleagues, etc were all buzzing about it, sucking more in. There was a frenzy to sign up with clogged exchanges. Individual alts were "popping" for no other reason than they hadn't "gone up yet"

JJJJNR

Yeah I think there is some validity with the north Korea bit especially as once south korea started to ban crypto exchanges the price crashed, So I still think there was a bit of game playing there on the geopolitical stage.

JJJJNR

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/18/16793532/us-north-korea-wannacry-ransomware-cyberattack-trump-admin

Its not hard to imagine that north korea made a sh*t load from bitcoin last year, and it was in there interest to push with the testing and scaremongering.

Pussyhands

There is no rationale for why the price went up or down.

I remember last January people saying chinese new year, crypto bans in Korea etc.

People tried to make reasons for the prices.

What caused a 20% dip a couple days back? No reason for it. Just like there's no reasons for it going up.

When I say reasons I mean real news. It's likely driven by whales who are making millions from it.

Dohnjoe

Pussyhands wrote: »

There is no rationale for why the price went up or down.

Traditional irrational exuberance followed by massive panic, followed by low market confidence resulting in the bear we see today. Can overlay it with 2013 and it's almost identical.

Good news has low effects in a bear market, higher effects in a bull market

We don't know what will happen next, but with hindsight we can analyse and explain what happened in the past

Pussyhands

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Traditional irrational exuberance followed by massive panic, followed by low market confidence resulting in the bear we see today. Can overlay it with 2013 and it's almost identical.

Good news has low effects in a bear market, higher effects in a bull market

We don't know what will happen next, but with hindsight we can analyse and explain what happened in the past

Nah I don't think so.

What has put the prices up today? What caused a 40% increase in ripple?

sexmag

Pussyhands wrote: »

What has put the prices up today? What caused a 40% increase in ripple?

https://www.coindesk.com/up-13-xrp-jumps-by-double-digits-for-second-time-this-week/

Pussyhands

sexmag wrote: »

https://www.coindesk.com/up-13-xrp-jumps-by-double-digits-for-second-time-this-week/

There's multiple positive news stories about every crypto coin at any given time.

Vechain was on stage with Boyd in China and it tanked.

sexmag

Pussyhands wrote: »

There's multiple positive news stories about every crypto coin at any given time.

Vechain was on stage with Boyd in China and it tanked.

You asked a question i gave an answer

Tinder Surprise

Hopefully this improves things..
Google ends cryptocurrency ad ban

makeorbrake

Tinder Surprise wrote: »

Hopefully this improves things..
Google ends cryptocurrency ad ban

I'm open to correction but I wouldn't have thought it would be all that relevant from a market point of view. Possibly from a perception point of view, yes.

They were wrong to ban all crypto ads in the first instance. Of course there are scammers in the crypto space. Given crypto has been the buzz word in 2018, it was always going to attract Jordan Belfort types - who have nothing to do with the industry otherwise - in constructing 'scams' where they incorporate the word 'crypto' or some rouse based on crypto.

There will always be scammers and fraudsters and people they can take advantage of but it's not the fault of the tech or the market itself.

Dohnjoe

Pussyhands wrote: »

There's multiple positive news stories about every crypto coin at any given time.

Vechain was on stage with Boyd in China and it tanked.

Most crypto news is basically "good" news, but the effect it has on the market is related to it's quality and value. X has partnered with Y. It depends on what X is, who Y is, the nature of the partnership, recent news, recent movements, etc. Generally people will buy on the rumour and sell on the news, but it depends on the type of announcement/news/market conditions

Combine that with an irrational market, whether it's bull/bear/turning/stagnating

If it was as easy as "good news makes it go up" we'd all be millionaires

sexmag

Dohnjoe wrote: »

If it was as easy as "good news makes it go up" we'd all be millionaires

Speak for yourself :cool:

asteroids over berlin

bubble bubble.......are you surviving, the storm shall be over soon, be strong brothers/sisters

Tinder Surprise

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

bubble bubble.......are you surviving, the storm shall be over soon, be strong brothers/sisters

forget about crypto, I wanna get me some of your positive attitude, asteroids over berlin

Pintman Paddy Losty

Like all scams, the Bitcoin Ponzi relied on the argument that “it’s different this time, because of details that are too complex for you to understand”.
Like in every single scam ever, rational critics like myself and JohnnyFlash are pushed aside and ridiculed by the proud bagholders of magic beans.
As always, the bagholders used the same circular argument to rationalise the impossible. “I’m smart because I bought these magic beans who are going up every day, and they can’t be a scam because I’m smart.”
As always, the scam worked until the world ran out of greater idiots.

makeorbrake

Grumpypants

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Like all scams, the Bitcoin Ponzi relied on the argument that “it’s different this time, because of details that are too complex for you to understand”.
Like in every single scam ever, rational critics like myself and JohnnyFlash are pushed aside and ridiculed by the proud bagholders of magic beans.
As always, the bagholders used the same circular argument to rationalise the impossible. “I’m smart because I bought these magic beans who are going up every day, and they can’t be a scam because I’m smart.”
As always, the scam worked until the world ran out of greater idiots.

I've yet to hear you or Johnny make a single argument against crypto that is based in fact. We get the same old misguided arguments that have been debunked over and over again. Each time ye disappear for a few weeks before popping back up acting like you are right.

I had to send Euros to Sterling recently. It took 7 days and cost €400, using banks and used 4 times the power as bitcoin would have. For anyone to say that is better than using crypto to transfer in a few minutes for a fraction of the cost is just being disingenuous.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Grumpypants wrote: »

I've yet to hear you or Johnny make a single argument against crypto that is based in fact. We get the same old misguided arguments that have been debunked over and over again. Each time ye disappear for a few weeks before popping back up acting like you are right.

I had to send Euros to Sterling recently. It took 7 days and cost €400, using banks and used 4 times the power as bitcoin would have. For anyone to say that is better than using crypto to transfer in a few minutes for a fraction of the cost is just being disingenuous.

SEPA could have done the job you wanted for free. Not this posters fault that you insisted on buying your car arseways.

Avatar MIA

Grumpypants wrote: »

I had to send Euros to Sterling recently. It took 7 days and cost €400, using banks and used 4 times the power as bitcoin would have. For anyone to say that is using crypto to transfer in a few minutes for a fraction of the cost is just being disingenuous.

Cost €400 ? And took 7 days? How is that even possible? Would like to know in case I've the urge to figuratively burn some money.

Re your second point - why didn't you use crypto currency in this case?

Akrasia

Grumpypants wrote: »

I've yet to hear you or Johnny make a single argument against crypto that is based in fact. We get the same old misguided arguments that have been debunked over and over again. Each time ye disappear for a few weeks before popping back up acting like you are right.

I had to send Euros to Sterling recently. It took 7 days and cost €400, using banks and used 4 times the power as bitcoin would have. For anyone to say that is better than using crypto to transfer in a few minutes for a fraction of the cost is just being disingenuous.

Why didn't you use crypto then?

Oh yeah, because nobody other than a lunatic would accept it in exchange for real asset like a car. The exchange risk is insane. The seller could lose 10% of the value of the currency in a day.

Crypto to crypto transactions are quick and easy. Crypto to FIAT is way more expensive and more risky given how often exchanges are hacked

Grumpypants

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

SEPA could have done the job you wanted for free. Not this posters fault that you insisted on buying your car arseways.

So your suggestion is to transfer money into some strangers account in a different country with no come back if he does a runner. Brilliant advice!!

To transfer euro into a sterling account you still pay to convert to a foreign currency, that's €400 difference when using the banks rates on the day when compared to the rates on XE.com.

Plus a sepa transfer takes a min of 24 hours to complete, on a business day. I was buying on a Saturday so it wouldn't have cleared until Monday.

Staying 3 nights in the uk wasn't an option. The seller needed the car collected that day, i needed to be home that night. So the only option was a sterling draft i could hand over on the day once i was happy with the car.

Or if bitcoin had mass adoption I could have text him a code and he would have had his funds in minutes at a fraction of the cost.

Grumpypants

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Cost €400 ? And took 7 days? How is that even possible? Would like to know in case I've the urge to figuratively burn some money.

Re your second point - why didn't you use crypto currency in this case?

Even a legit draft takes 6 business days to clear the funds, plus sunday, that is 7 days. Plus because all the banks have closed their small local branches i had to drive right into the city to get a draft, wasting another half a day.

I didn't use crypto because the seller wanted a draft.

sexmag

Akrasia wrote: »

The seller could lose 10% of the value of the currency in a day.

BTC has stayed in the 5600 to 5800 range in the last 7 days at least, hardly 10%.

Unfortunate until there is further adoption there will be changes in value which aren't specific to crypto,look at Venezuela.

It's slowly happening but still in its early days,people expect things to just happen over night, an entire new type of currency that's been around for 10 years but really only being brought to mainstream attention in the last 4 isn't going to have a world wide adoption in that time,particularly when you have people abusing it to their own advantage and the media scare tactics. Once that balances out then stability will be brought to the crypto world

You don't want You use it that's fine,keep paying your bank fees just for having an account,using your debit card,making transfers and leaving someone else have complete control of your money

Akrasia

sexmag wrote: »

BTC has stayed in the 5600 to 5800 range in the last 7 days at least, hardly 10%.

Its called exchange risk because of the uncertainty. BTC has had its value change by 30% in 24 hours within the last year. Its not a reliable store of value or medium of exchange.

Unfortunate until there is further adoption there will be changes in value which aren't specific to crypto,look at Venezuela.
[\quote]
Comparing crypto to a collapsing currency is about right. Why not compare it to a stable currency instead?

It's slowly happening but still in its early days,people expect things to just happen over night, an entire new type of currency that's been around for 10 years but really only being brought to mainstream attention in the last 4 isn't going to have a world wide adoption in that time,particularly when you have people abusing it to their own advantage and the media scare tactics. Once that balances out then stability will be brought to the crypto world

You don't want You use it that's fine,keep paying your bank fees just for having an account,using your debit card,making transfers and leaving someone else have complete control of your money

You hang in there if you like, but there is absolutely no fundamental value in BTC. It's a technology that has its uses. But not as a store of value other than as a collectors item

You might as well put all your savings into rare stamps or pokemon cards

makeorbrake

Akrasia wrote: »

Its called exchange risk because of the uncertainty.

Yes, there is volatility - no contest. The use of money is a cornerstone of human activity. You may be appalled at BTC volatility but it was more volatile in the past. It's something that's likely to take quite some time to work out but it will work its way out. The internet wasn't a whole lot of use to many when it was available at dial up speeds. This is new tech - and it's evolving.

In the meantime, there are around 40 stablecoins either launched or due to be launched - usually tied to FIAT, algorithm based, fiat backed or asset backed (eg. gold).

Akrasia wrote: »

Its not a reliable store of value ...You might as well put all your savings into rare stamps or pokemon cards

You seem to be referencing two aspects here. The volatility - which we've covered and no belief in it, generally. As a long term store of value, it's as good as anything else that's out there. As regards your belief or disbelief, people attribute value to something...whether that be those pieces of paper in your wallet (as that's all they are, they're not backed by anything) or gold (and people can go on about the industrial use cases for gold or amenity uses - by far the main reason people hoard it is as a store of value..not with anything else in mind). Crypto is no different. So long as people attribute value to it, it has value. Of course, one fine day it may have none and I suspect that's your belief. We will have to wait and see. Bitcoin may or may not be around for ever but crypto generally is here to stay. There will be a crypto based store of value whether it's bitcoin or another coin.

Akrasia wrote: »

It's a technology that has its uses.

Which use cases?

Akrasia wrote: »

Comparing crypto to a collapsing currency is about right. Why not compare it to a stable currency instead?

Sure...but understand that FIAT currencies can and do collapse. In case you think, well that doesn't happen in our case, we came extremely close to it around 2008. Furthermore, in any given year there's a list of a few FIAT currencies that are all over the place.

smacl

Akrasia wrote: »

Its called exchange risk because of the uncertainty. BTC has had its value change by 30% in 24 hours within the last year. Its not a reliable store of value or medium of exchange.

Agreed it is not a reliable store of value, whether it has value as a medium of exchange is dependant on how long that exchange takes to complete and how volatile the crypto being used is over that period. While I haven't used BTC in a long time, any exchanges I've made between fiat and crypto on Kraken, either buying or selling have been very quick if I accept their market rate. It is not cost free as there are effectively charges between moving from fiat to crypto, transferring the crypto, moving back to fiat and SEPA charges moving the fiat from the crypto exchange to a bank account. AFAIK, moving from one account to another on the same exchange is relatively quick, though to be fair I haven't timed it so perhaps others could comment. As such, it seems like an entirely viable medium for exchange unless I'm missing something else obvious.