Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Lux23

I was watching Bloomberg a couple of days ago, and one analyst said - 'it is clear in the US there will be a lot of people suffering this Christmas financially, but the markets don't really seem to care'. Which is probably one of the most honest things, I have ever heard one of those people say.

Lex Luthor

Average joe is not buying Bitcoin right now
When you hear your granny telling you that she heard from the woman sitting next to her at the hairdresser is buying them it’s time to sell

Stormington

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Average joe is not buying Bitcoin right now
When you hear your granny telling you that she heard from the woman sitting next to her at the hairdresser is buying them it’s time to sell

There's an easier barometer in Ireland: RTE. When the Late Late or Radio 1 mention it, sell up.

Lex Luthor

Stormington wrote: »

There's an easier barometer in Ireland: RTE. When the Late Late or Radio 1 mention it, sell up.

all well & good them mentioning it, its getting the audience to buy in

at $17k people wont even look at it and they wont understand you can only buy a fraction

now we have a different breed of investors.....its billionaires, large companies, etc cos they see further ahead than the avg joe
inflation is coming so they are planning ahead, not selling and supply is decreasing with more demand which will cause price to go up

I think we will see a much bigger price this time around than 2017, strap yourselves in for this one

Stormington

Lex Luthor wrote: »

all well & good them mentioning it, its getting the audience to buy in

at $17k people wont even look at it and they wont understand you can only buy a fraction

If they can get Eddie Hobbs in to flog apartments near the mountains in Bulgarian, they'll be able to get some gombeen in to explain buying BTC.

If it does happen, I'll be tearing the mickey off myself watching it at the thought of flogging my overpriced BTC to the innocents in the audience.

daheff

Stormington wrote: »

If they can get Eddie Hobbs in to flog apartments near the mountains in Bulgarian, they'll be able to get some gombeen in to explain buying BTC.

If it does happen, I'll be tearing the mickey off myself watching it at the thought of flogging my overpriced BTC to the innocents in the audience.

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

Stormington

daheff wrote: »

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

Any amount more than I have bought if for

Lex Luthor

daheff wrote: »

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

1btc = 1btc

makeorbrake

Stormington wrote: »

Any amount more than I have bought if for

You've been hodling for a while, correct?

I'll give you $1 above your buy price. That's fair value, right?

Stormington

You've been hodling for a while, correct?

I'll give you $1 above your buy price. That's fair value, right?

That's not value. BTC has become more scarce since I started, for a start.

I've also sold chunks off to buy alts and shares.
BTC -> ETH -> Alts -> BTC is the wheel.

unkel

Stormington wrote: »

That's not value. BTC has become more scarce since I started, for a start.

No it hasn't

The number of BTC out there is still growing every day. It's becoming less and less scarce until the maximum pre set number of coins is reached.

Bob24

unkel wrote: »

No it hasn't

The number of BTC out there is still growing every day. It's becoming less and less scarce until the maximum pre set number of coins is reached.

Saying this for the enjoyment of the discussion and it is unimportant; but given the fact that some bitcoins are being lost forever because people are losing access to their keys/wallet, technically the number of actually usable bitcoins could already be stable or even dropping. Of course it is impossible to make call either way, as while the number of new bitcoins made available each days is public and unquestionable information, there is no way to know how many are being lost.

Stormington

unkel wrote: »

No it hasn't

The number of BTC out there is still growing every day. It's becoming less and less scarce until the maximum pre set number of coins is reached.

Lots of lost and near inaccessible BTC accounted for in the interim since I started buying (not 2020).
There's no way there will ever be close to 21 million BTC available so it is more scarce than advertised.

unkel

Bob24 wrote: »

technically the number of actually usable bitcoins could already be stable or even dropping.

Only if more coins are being lost today and in the future than are being mined. I find that very unlikely

But yes, of course a lot of coins have been lost in the past. I remember a video about this dude in the UK who mined for a bit on his laptop back in 2009, then swapped his hard disk and accidentally threw it away. He's gone as far as considering purchasing the local landfill dump where it likely went and spending millions paying for people sifting through the rubbish trying to find the disk. His coins would be worth something like a hundred million today :eek:

cnocbui

It would be worth about €118 million since the drive reportedly had over 7500 BTC.

unkel

I wasn't far off then with my hundred million - GBP as the lad is in the UK

el diablo

Bob24 wrote: »

bitcoins

The plural of bitcoin is ...bitcoin. :pac:

Not sure why but "bitcoins" really bugs me.

Lex Luthor

el diablo wrote: »

The plural of bitcoin is ...bitcoin. :pac:

Not sure why but "bitcoins" really bugs me.

Or the bitcoin

joe250

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Or the bitcoin

Bitcoins to Euros.:-)

Bob24

el diablo wrote: »

The plural of bitcoin is ...bitcoin. :pac:

Not sure why but "bitcoins" really bugs me.

You actually sent me to google to look it up as I never thought about this, and there doesn’t seem to be any consensus either way. Wikipedia says the plural is “bitcoins” though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin

Also says here that uppercase Bitcoin is uncountable (as the concept) and lower case bitcoin is countable (as the unit) and therefore its plural is bitcoins. Makes sense to me.

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/bitcoin

Daithi40

joe250 wrote: »

Bitcoins to Euros.:-)

Do you mean the Euro

Dohnjoe

Market cap hitting around $600 billion. Jesus christ, just to be very cynical here, that amount of money in a bunch of tokens that pretty much do nothing but suck electricity and provide solutions for problems that don't exist, sorry couldn't resist

In all seriousness though, if this bull gets big enough I'll be unloading a good bit of this stuff.

Daithi40

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Market cap hitting around $600 billion. Jesus christ, just to be very cynical here, that amount of money in a bunch of tokens that pretty much do nothing but suck electricity and provide solutions for problems that don't exist, sorry couldn't resist

In all seriousness though, if this bull gets big enough I'll be unloading a good bit of this stuff.

Fair enough. But why? Why wait..... if you are not a HODLer etc, then what is your price to cash out.... $2trillion.... who knows? I definitely dont know - back to the good advice - only invest what you can afford to lose, if you are quids in then cash out and enjoy the €€s i guess

think I'll wait a bit ...

Grumpypants

el diablo wrote: »

The plural of bitcoin is ...bitcoin. :pac:

Not sure why but "bitcoins" really bugs me.

It should be bitcoinses

Lex Luthor

$600 billion is nothing, wait until its $4 trillion

makeorbrake

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Market cap hitting around $600 billion. Jesus christ, just to be very cynical here, that amount of money in a bunch of tokens that pretty much do nothing but suck electricity and provide solutions for problems that don't exist, sorry couldn't resist

In all seriousness though, if this bull gets big enough I'll be unloading a good bit of this stuff.

Didn't you tell us that bitcoin had stalled 6 months ago? I thought you had offloaded then?

It's like having a JF hybrid on here....it's all woeful stuff but apparently you're holding

antgal23

makeorbrake wrote: »

Didn't you tell us that bitcoin had stalled 6 months ago? I thought you had offloaded then?

It's like having a JF hybrid on here....it's all woeful stuff but apparently you're holding

Worried? Only for the peeps about to buy crypto

This is just another cycle, the space has matured a lot in the past 36 months

Once the self off comes BTC lows will be higher than the 2018 lows

Stormington

antgal23 wrote: »

Once the self off comes BTC lows will be higher than the 2018 lows

Was a bit confused by the answer as makeorbrake appeared to be replying to DohnJoe.

Thargor

Did Johnnyflash fake his own death and use the Pintman alt account to post it because he was too embarrassed by how wrong he was about this run?

grindle

Thargor wrote: »

Did Johnnyflash fake his own death and use the Pintman alt account to post it because he was too embarrassed by how wrong he was about this run?

Shhhhhhh, it's all headed to zero. Any day now. Should be right about now. Or maybe 3 years from now during the next cataclysmic suicide-dip. Then it'll die, for sure.

rapul

I see sky news are running a story on bitcoin, doomed!

FFVII

Its on rte 1 o clock news there.

Stormington

FFVII wrote: »

Its on rte 1 o clock news there.

You have a link by any chance? If so, it's time to plan your exit if you don't have one in place already.

q85dw7osi4lebg

I remember hearing someone talking about how XRP is the next Bitcoin on today FM about a day or so before the top back in 17.

Stormington

Gerald Obedient Manicurist wrote: »

I remember hearing someone talking about how XRP is the next Bitcoin on today FM about a day or so before the top back in 17.

CNBC were showing people how to set up Ripple/XRP wallets.

q85dw7osi4lebg

]

Stormington wrote: »

CNBC were showing people how to set up Ripple/XRP wallets.

Dohnjoe

Daithi40 wrote: »

Fair enough. But why? Why wait..... if you are not a HODLer etc, then what is your price to cash out.... $2trillion.... who knows? I definitely dont know - back to the good advice - only invest what you can afford to lose, if you are quids in then cash out and enjoy the €€s i guess

think I'll wait a bit ...

Have been in this since 2013, I'm waiting, but will unload of a lot stuff if there's a sufficient bull this time around.

FFVII

Stormington wrote: »

You have a link by any chance? If so, it's time to plan your exit if you don't have one in place already.

Business guy said it was approaching all time highs and the governor of the bank of England was worried or cautious (i forget which word) about people transfering money into it.

Stormington

FFVII wrote: »

Business guy said it was approaching all time highs and the governor of the bank of England was worried or cautious (i forget which word) about people transfering money into it.

Sound man, thanks. Lets see if Tubridy gets on this too in the next few weeks.

Dohnjoe

Another big rug pull, take care out there
https://www.coindesk.com/compounder-developers-implicated-alleged-smart-contract-rug-pull

If going for these "crypto moon shots", at the very least make sure the team are not anonymous

False Prophet

Worrying time bomb



https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

seannash

False Prophet wrote: »

Worrying time bomb



https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

Towards the end he states the following


"It was still possible that retail demand for Bitcoin was driving real USD into Tether Ltd. through some unknown mechanism; that Tether Ltd. was issuing Tethers in exchange for those dollars; and that those issued Tethers were then being used to buy Bitcoin. Under that scenario, Tether’s rise was being caused by Bitcoin’s demand, and Tether might be fully backed by dollars after all"


I'm playing devils advocate here but why isn't this a possibility. The appetite for Altcoins is huge and as a result Coinbase doesn't cover all bases.
Take me for example. I deposit euros into Binance and if necessary I convert to tether. I'd say this is very common.



Further more isn't there other stable coins out there now that could and should step in to take tethers place if something happens to Tether

cnocbui

False Prophet wrote: »

Worrying time bomb



https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

If I wanted to short bitcoin or cause a dump allowing me to buy back in, I might write something like that, which seems to have involved a lot of unpaid work to anonymously, out of the goodness of someone/s heart/s, to warn the poor schucks to watch out.

The epiphany where he/she/they are catching up with their friend 'Bob', who is such a good friend, yet they don't have the slightest clue about Bob's interest and involvement in crypto? If Bob is real, I'm your uncle.

I admit I haven't quite fully grasped the model behind the scam; the scale of trading on dodgy Binance is an order of magnitude greater than the scale of trading on legit Coinbase, and yet the latter is being used as the outlet for all that scammed money, but it surely is but a trickle?

You'd be a fool to be milking a Tether scam for USD, as that is very hard to leep out of the reach of the US government.

Bob24

cnocbui wrote: »

The epiphany where he/she/they are catching up with their friend 'Bob', who is such a good friend, yet they don't have the slightest clue about Bob's interest and involvement in crypto? If Bob is real, I'm your uncle.

At least he didn’t say Bob24! ... glad to be off the hook as the imaginary friend who does all the dodgy stuff one needs to back their case with ‘evidence’ that things have gone mad.

seannash

cnocbui wrote: »

If I wanted to short bitcoin or cause a dump allowing me to buy back in, I might write something like that, which seems to have involved a lot of unpaid work to anonymously, out of the goodness of someone/s heart/s, to warn the poor schucks to watch out.

The epiphany where he/she/they are catching up with their friend 'Bob', who is such a good friend, yet they don't have the slightest clue about Bob's interest and involvement in crypto? If Bob is real, I'm your uncle.

I admit I haven't quite fully grasped the model behind the scam; the scale of trading on dodgy Binance is an order of magnitude greater than the scale of trading on legit Coinbase, and yet the latter is being used as the outlet for all that scammed money, but it surely is but a trickle?

You'd be a fool to be milking a Tether scam for USD, as that is very hard to leep out of the reach of the US government.

I'm not sure that's the motive but I feel Bob could certainly be ficticious.
He probably does want so notoriety for the piece.


Whats stopping people with bitcoin transfering to Coinbase and cashing out? Wont Coinbase be in a similar position of not having enough cash on hand to cash people out. Their assets would be tied up in bitcoin which is what Tether currently has. It has a portion of its assets in Bitcoin and the majority in USD allegedly

grindle

seannash wrote: »

Whats stopping people with bitcoin transfering to Coinbase and cashing out? Wont Coinbase be in a similar position of not having enough cash on hand to cash people out.

There's a huge difference between people cashing out via CB - BTC's price would drop significantly if there was a run to exit, they'd be selling to people buying until there was no liquidity left - versus people being able to claim 100% of the 24,734,696,756 Tether that are meant to be backed 1:1 with USD. If they're backed, all good. If they're not, very very bad.

seannash

grindle wrote: »

There's a huge difference between people cashing out via CB - BTC's price would drop significantly if there was a run to exit, they'd be selling to people buying until there was no liquidity left - versus people being able to claim 100% of the 24,734,696,756 Tether that are meant to be backed 1:1 with USD. If they're backed, all good. If they're not, very very bad.

Gotcha,
That makes sense

Mucashinto

That $24bln Tether - that's should match only to Tether that's being held at a given time right? Like as soon as someone makes a USDT/EUR sell, those coins should be burnt up and removed from circulation or something?

Edit: Sorry, maybe only removed if bought by Tether themselves?

Edit 2: Or if technically Tether themselves were actually holding $10bln of those coins, those wouldn't actually need to be back by cash at all? They only have a kind of temporary value, when they're directly matched to a transaction?

Bob24

Mucashinto wrote: »

That $24bln Tether - that's should match only to Tether that's being held at a given time right? Like as soon as someone makes a USDT/EUR sell, those coins should be burnt up and removed from circulation or something?

Edit: Sorry, maybe only removed if bought by Tether themselves?

Edit 2: Or if technically Tether themselves were actually holding $10bln of those coins, those wouldn't actually need to be back by cash at all? They only have a kind of temporary value, when they're directly matched to a transaction?

Only Tether can mint and burn coins (and at least in theory, for every coin they mint they add $1 to their bank deposits and for every coin they burn they remove $1).

If you are selling USDT for euros on an exchange, there is a counter-party on the other side of the trade which is buying those USDTs from you (i.e. that counter-part gets to keep them - they are not being destroyed). So it doesn't change the quantity of bank reserves required for Tether to back the coins.

Mucashinto

Right.

Hmm, I can easily see Tether having cut corners tbh because, well crypto, but equally if they used those 15 months of stalling to actually do more dodginess as the article suggests rather than try and get their house in order by whatever means...that’s a ballsy move with the US gov looking over your shoulder :eek:

It seems like a stable coin could be an ideal example of a coin/the technology as well. Surely you could have one where everything is transparent on the blockchain, even the bank account and reserves, so you could follow every coins creation and a matching dollar all the way through its existence if you wanted maybe.