Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

grindle

Mucashinto wrote: »

It seems like a stable coin could be an ideal example of a coin/the technology as well. Surely you could have one where everything is transparent on the blockchain, even the bank account and reserves, so you could follow every coins creation and a matching dollar all the way through its existence if you wanted maybe.

That already exists, DAI from MakerDAO.

makeorbrake

Here's the Deputy CEO of Deltec (Tether's bankers) and what he has to say on the subject. From what I've gathered, Tether failing won't be fatal for the rest of the industry. I'm sure they cut some corners over the years (some of them they were given no choice but to take given the way they were shut out). However, with all the heat on them and with what is now a huge business on their hands, why would they put a foot wrong?

Meanwhile, it's not coincidental that those that accuse them are anti-crypto to begin with. Either they produce the evidence or they should sling their hooks. Its interesting how crypto has stood accused of manipulation when the greatest manipulators come from the conventional financial services world....pot calling kettle black.

Bob24

makeorbrake wrote: »

Meanwhile, it's not coincidental that those that accuse them are anti-crypto to begin with. Either they produce the evidence or they should sling their hooks. Its interesting how crypto has stood accused of manipulation when the greatest manipulators come from the conventional financial services world....pot calling kettle black.

I also noticed on fintweet that a lot of crypto-skeptic influential people have all gone after Tether exactly at the same time (it started about 3 weeks ago). Strange for all of them to wake-up all at the same time given that it has been ongoing for years and there hasn’t really been anything new recently.

I think it is just a herd-driven narrative which will go away as quickly as it came once they have all received the public exposure they are looking for (I am not denying there might be something wrong with Tether, more questioning the relevance of this latest wave of concerns which aren’t bringing anything new to the table).

grindle

It's been in the news a lot more lately with the NYAG deadline, expect it to be the same for the next 4 weeks as they rifle through over 2.5m documents. Hopefully it's good news, handing documents over knowing that you're going to get crucified at the end seems pointless.

cnocbui

grindle wrote: »

It's been in the news a lot more lately with the NYAG deadline, expect it to be the same for the next 4 weeks as they rifle through over 2.5m documents. Hopefully it's good news, handing documents over knowing that you're going to get crucified at the end seems pointless.

Handing over the documents is necessary to avoid legal penalties and is not in itself any indication of innocence. It's not done voluntarily. You stand to face severe, probably worse penalties for not complying, that's why you do it, irrespective of what you think your case is like. That's how penalties work, otherwise no one would comply with legal discoveries if what was provided wasn't helpful to them.

grindle

cnocbui wrote: »

Handing over the documents is necessary to avoid legal penalties and is not in itself any indication of innocence. It's not done voluntarily.

I know that, but if there is evidence of wrongdoing they'd be better off just holding their hands up now and taking their punishment. The more they claim or infer innocence before being found guilty the harsher any judge will view it.

crushproof

BTC seems to have become quite stable over the past few days

Thargor

Cant decide whether or not I should try another big trade in ETH, wouldn't shock me to see another 20-30% drop from here.

grindle

Thargor wrote: »

Cant decide whether or not I should try another big trade in ETH, wouldn't shock me to see another 20-30% drop from here.

Risky, could go to 2k or it could halve in a week. Be patient.

Thargor

That should have been in the excited thread, definitely not worried whatever happens.

celtic_oz

excellent interview .. TLDR start @ 23 minutes in for crypto

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Mucashinto

celtic_oz wrote: »

excellent interview .. TLDR start @ 23 minutes in for crypto

I don't know much about this guy, Ive no doubt his track record is impressive, and only watched the crypto part but there's nothing much there for me.

Personally, I bought Gold at the same time I bought BTC and wanted them both to do the same function for me but didn't know which was best. When BTC didn't move much I was annoyed I put it in crypto, when crypto took off I regretted the gold. Neither of my feelings prove anything though really.

The things he says are the basic opinions anyone putting money in would consider, and whichever way you come down on them will only be a reflection of your own beliefs rather than some external truths imo.

So gold has 12,000 years of history, crypto only c.15, a lot of which is boom and bust...so that means history is going to repeat/continue then? Or maybe we should move on from gold as, well, it's obviously a bit outdated? Again, not trying to come down one way or the other, the result is far out of my control, I'll just have to wait and see.

But if you imagine a future of smart homes and autonomous vehicles and zoom/VR conferencing then surely gold seems completely anachronistic and out of place and it might ultimately drop to nothing? Or maybe crypto is just an extension of a bloated asset speculation system and it could easily collapse to nothing as the asset bubble finally, disastrously bursts after 'kicking the can down the road' for the majority of this century?

Honestly I've given up trying to 'know' and am just trying to get myself in a position where if certain things happen, I might be somewhat inured from overly disastrous consequences.

The one thing I will agree on - I didn't like when BTC/crypto tanked along with the rest of the stock market in March, it didn't look like much of a hedge then. However, that might not repeat. That was panic stations and before the crypto as safe haven narrative really took off in the public consciousness imo. Could just as easily rise if the markets crashed again I believe.

Again I don't know and it's out of my hands so I'm happy to wait and see.

unkel

Great post, Mucashinto.

celtic_oz

schiff is the perpetual doom monger .. and he doesn't pull his punches on bitcoin .. 7 mins in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6k0QEnYpSQ

Mucashinto

celtic_oz wrote: »

schiff is the perpetual doom monger .. and he doesn't pull his punches on bitcoin .. 7 mins in.

This one's worse for me tbh, maybe just because he talks more.

INTERVIEWER: Do you think BTC is taking money from Gold?
SCHIFF: No, if anything institutions are confused by the debate and deciding not to invest in either, and going for other commodities or stocks.

Dafuq. Really. Institutions where they NEED to have x percent of their portfolio as inflationary hedges, who are also getting hammered by their big clients to get some of their portfolio into these hedges NOW, are going "yeah, we couldn't decide whether BTC or Gold was best so we just bought Tesla shares instead". Laughable.

Again, there are 100s of worries to have about investing in BTC, as there are investing in anything, but if these are the best arguments against coming from outside...well my experience the criticism is a lot better from inside. It isn't all fanaticism/greed/irrational exuberance as some would like to suggest in my experience, this is people's real earned money they're putting in and they are doing a lot better analysis and due diligence imo. You can look on this forum at people who are invested in a big way but they'll offer much more insightful/thoughtful/valuable warnings than either of these imo.

EDIT: Also, someone should tell them to stop using "it has no real use" as an argument against BTC when their next sentence is "buy Gold instead". It sounds ridiculous.

Daithi40

Mucashinto wrote: »

This one's worse for me tbh, maybe just because he talks more.

INTERVIEWER: Do you think BTC is taking money from Gold?
SCHIFF: No, if anything institutions are confused by the debate and deciding not to invest in either, and going for other commodities or stocks.

Dafuq. Really. Institutions where they NEED to have x percent of their portfolio as inflationary hedges, who are also getting hammered by their big clients to get some of their portfolio into these hedges NOW, are going "yeah, we couldn't decide whether BTC or Gold was best so we just bought Tesla shares instead". Laughable.

Again, there are 100s of worries to have about investing in BTC, as there are investing in anything, but if these are the best arguments against coming from outside...well my experience the criticism is a lot better from inside. It isn't all fanaticism/greed/irrational exuberance as some would like to suggest in my experience, this is people's real earned money they're putting in and they are doing a lot better analysis and due diligence imo. You can look on this forum at people who are invested in a big way but they'll offer much more insightful/thoughtful/valuable warnings than either of these imo.

EDIT: Also, someone should tell them to stop using "it has no real use" as an argument against BTC when their next sentence is "buy Gold instead". It sounds ridiculous.

Yeah, am about 25k invested in Crypto about 5 yrs ago, yeah read all the P Schiff stuff and yeah, still believe he shills his own stuff - that's all... I'm almost 50 and thank god I tink that I believe that I can see the chaff for the wheat...... he may be proved right, who knows but really, the millionaire in your class is usally the same as you but he made a lucky bet

As always, only put in what you think will or could go to zero, ffs, this rule applies to everyone.... you are not different or smarter.... only lob in extra money - your money for your deposit on a house etc etc DONT YOU DARE..... just in case you havent been listening

Stormington

Mucashinto wrote: »

The one thing I will agree on - I didn't like when BTC/crypto tanked along with the rest of the stock market in March, it didn't look like much of a hedge then.

Ding ding ding. We have a winner.

Being a hedge is a narrative. BTC and crypto have been strongly correlated with the SPX for some time. The only hedges in March 2020 were a big bag of USD or a share of Vixxy.

Don't complain about Schiff: we need him to keep people from arriving sooner so they buy bags after BTC and crypto goes parabolic. He can keep saying the same thing for the next 8 or 9 years and he may eventually be right, but that gives everyone time to make money in the meantime.

makeorbrake

celtic_oz wrote: »

schiff is the perpetual doom monger .. and he doesn't pull his punches on bitcoin .. 7 mins in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6k0QEnYpSQ

celtic_oz wrote: »

excellent interview [Jeremy Grantham]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

So both of these come from the intrinsic value side of the debate although I suspect Schiff knows better at this stage. He can't possibly say anything good about btc as it could potentially eat golds lunch (and his whole business centres on gold).
There's no such thing as bad press and Schiff has been building his profile online through his obstinate dismissal of bitcoin. Smart move though to contrive to have his son appear as pro bitcoin - the Schiff's are hedging their bets.

Both Schiff & Grantham say ....'Gold has been around for thousands of years - bitcoin hasn't'. I'll use Michael Saylor's analogy - wooden ships were around for thousands of years - steel ships weren't. Yet one replaced the other as steel presented with several advantages over wood.
The interviewer puts Grantham right on his first couple of points i.e. you can't eat gold either and neither does gold produce a revenue stream. On gold being round for years - see above. On it not tarnishing - it's the very same point he's making re. gold being around and being durable. Bitcoin is equally as durable - it doesn't tarnish either - it just doesn't have the long track record of gold is all.

However, it's simply wrong for Grantham to park it up at that. He doesn't consider the advantages bitcoin has over gold - and it's clear that it does possess certain advantages. It's much easier and less expensive to store (once you know what you're doing). It is divisible where as gold isn't easily divisible. That means gold can't be used as money. Bitcoin can be used as a settlement layer - easily facilitating larger transactions. Use for micro-transactions (the cup of coffee purchase) remain outside of its scope right now but that may come into play through a layer 2 solution.
It can be transmitted digitally - you can send it anywhere on the planet, you can cross borders with it without the opportunity for anyone to confiscate it.

On the notion of it getting found out at the next stock market crash - in crash conditions, everything goes south. In the 2008 financial crisis, gold dropped 30%...and later recovered. In the 2020 covid-induced drop, gold dropped too. In those conditions, investors/traders need to draw down $ to cover losses. They don't care where that $ comes from. Would btc get sold off before gold? Of course it would - it's the more volatile asset and it's still proving itself in the digital gold role.

Daithi40 wrote:

I'm almost 50 and thank god I tink that I believe that I can see the chaff for the wheat

Same vintage but it's a very interesting point. Although they exist in lesser numbers as we go along, there are a list of notable people who insist that bitcoin is a nothing burger. People who otherwise have to be respected such as Munger and Buffett. However, It's a proven fact that the degree to which we have an ability to accept and adapt to change is a function of age. There are otherwise smart people who can't get their heads round bitcoin on that basis.

Daithi40 wrote:

he may be proved right, who knows but really, the millionaire in your class is usally the same as you but he made a lucky bet

Another good point. It reminds me of Raoul Pal making this very point a few months back....i.e. it's usually one thing/position/venture, etc. on which people make it. Along with the rest of the rationale he presents with, it feeds in to him being 'irresponsibly long' on bitcoin.

Bruno Mannheim

Theta waking up

unkel

makeorbrake wrote: »

He doesn't consider the advantages bitcoin has over gold - and it's clear that it does possess certain advantages. It's much easier and less expensive to store

That reminds me of a scene from "Gomorra" where your man, a capo from a mafia clan in Naples, goes to London to buy a company and pays for it in gold bars (a van full of them)

stockshares

yDai vault on yearn hacked last night.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/curve-liquidity-providers-see-3m-windfall-from-11m-yearn-finance-exploit

AH92

Eth Cme Futures are coming out tomorrow, Curious to see if there's a repeat of 2017 with Btc cme futures and the bloodbath after.

Mucashinto

Bit disheartened personally to think that the ultimate result of bitcoin may be to gift Apple even more money tbh. Not sure what I expected to happen I suppose, just feels a bit unpleasant now it's in motion.

Feel it's a harder to spin a hedging asset like this to the wider public than inflated stocks as well. At least with overvaluing start-ups it can be positioned as a positive outlook - banking on future value through their innovation etc (hiding the fact that most of the innovation revolves around removing human costs) - but with a ballooning btc price...

"Lol, why is this bitcoin thing worth so much?"
"Because money is worthless"
"Oh, right, cool "

cnocbui

Mucashinto wrote: »

Bit disheartened personally to think that the ultimate result of bitcoin may be to gift Apple even more money tbh. Not sure what I expected to happen I suppose, just feels a bit unpleasant now it's in motion.

Feel it's a harder to spin a hedging asset like this to the wider public than inflated stocks as well. At least with overvaluing start-ups it can be positioned as a positive outlook - banking on future value through their innovation etc (hiding the fact that most of the innovation revolves around removing human costs) - but with a ballooning btc price...

"Lol, why is this bitcoin thing worth so much?"
"Because money is worthless"
"Oh, right, cool "

How many Bitcoin do Apple own?

Mucashinto

Will announce $5bn holding soon apparently. Seems like it’s the only show in town atm.

HillCloudHop

Is it possible that Elon Musk manipulating BTC price will ultimately result in the SEC bringing in more crypto regulation that will tank the market?

cnocbui

Mucashinto wrote: »

Will announce $5bn holding soon apparently. Seems like it’s the only show in town atm.

I'd like to see a link to the source of that rumour.

I took a look on Reddit, and the story seems to point to: https://www.cryptoreportage.com/bitcoin-news/apple-rumored-to-make-5-billion-bitcoin-purchase/

Wherin some dweeb flaps his gums along the lines of: 'If Tim Cook wasn't gay, he might have married a woman and had children.'

I would like the story to be true, because Bitcoin would hit $80 K before Friday, but what I see in that link is less than worthless.

cnocbui

HillCloudHop wrote: »

Is it possible that Elon Musk manipulating BTC price will ultimately result in the SEC bringing in more crypto regulation that will tank the market?

No.

Lex Luthor

HillCloudHop wrote: »

Is it possible that Elon Musk manipulating BTC price will ultimately result in the SEC bringing in more crypto regulation that will tank the market?

we got another possible 12 months of a bull market

HillCloudHop

Lex Luthor wrote: »

we got another possible 12 months of a bull market

Are you basing this estimate on the 2017 bubble?

dougal0691

5 minute bitcoin segment on the 6.01 news this evening. Time to get out?

jmlad2020

dougal0691 wrote: »

5 minute bitcoin segment on the 6.01 news this evening. Time to get out?

It will be on 6.01 news again in 6-12 months. Maybe then

Lex Luthor

we need more dumb money first

Jin luk

jmlad2020 wrote: »

It will be on 6.01 news again in 6-12 months. Maybe then

As long as big companies start to get behind it its going to grow massively, it shot up after tesla announcement imagine what the likes of a few more big companies would do to it.

HillCloudHop

I'm hoping it crashes again in the near future so I can accumulate more. Just need some good FUD.

Stormington

jmlad2020 wrote: »

It will be on 6.01 news again in 6-12 months. Maybe then

No. But have your exit strategy planned.

I'm waiting for a mention on the Late Late Show and the Coinbase IPO/public issue before moving to cash.

Stormington

HillCloudHop wrote: »

I'm hoping it crashes again in the near future so I can accumulate more. Just need some good FUD.

Best of luck.

Rob2D

Lex Luthor wrote: »

we need more dumb money first

One of the old fellas at work bought Litecoin a while back then sold it at the first sign of trouble. When it dipped end of January I'd say. Knew nothing about the Paypal thing. No research done, understands none of it.
After BTC hit $40K the other day and then corrected back to $38K my father came to me in a panic. To "warn me".

These are the type of people we're dealing with here. And I'd say they make up about 80% of this island. If we could get all of them to go in. We could make a lot of money off them.

Jin luk wrote: »

imagine what the likes of a few more big companies would do to it.

Rumours of Apple buying in soon. Anything up to $5billion I heard. And that they're working on their own exchange of sorts for the app store.

That would be huge.

Bob24

Rob2D wrote: »

Rumours of Apple buying in soon. Anything up to $5billion I heard. And that they're working on their own exchange of sorts for the app store.

That would be huge.

I am off the opinion that the Silicon Valley’s plan A is to create its own cryptocurrency which it controls and with the blessing of governments (maybe as some type of SDR) which would favour it over the likes of Bitcoin.

But I wouldn’t mind being proven wrong! And of those companies all make a move towards Bitcoin it would indeed be huge and basically make it unstoppable.

Rob2D

Wow, everything in the red today. I guess we were due a bit of a pull back after the excitement of the last few days. My net worth went down by about 2K since I came into work this morning haha.

Wish I was good at trading and stuff so I could make gains from all these swings.

cnocbui

Rob2D wrote: »

One of the old fellas at work bought Litecoin a while back then sold it at the first sign of trouble. When it dipped end of January I'd say. Knew nothing about the Paypal thing. No research done, understands none of it.
After BTC hit $40K the other day and then corrected back to $38K my father came to me in a panic. To "warn me".

These are the type of people we're dealing with here. And I'd say they make up about 80% of this island. If we could get all of them to go in. We could make a lot of money off them.

Rumours of Apple buying in soon. Anything up to $5billion I heard. And that they're working on their own exchange of sorts for the app store.

That would be huge.

Link to this Apple buying bitcoin rumour please. I have found nothing remotely credible and until I see something, this is a load of BS.

Rob2D

cnocbui wrote: »

Link to this Apple buying bitcoin rumour please. I have found nothing remotely credible and until I see something, this is a load of BS.

Yeah, that's why it's called a rumour......

Jin luk

cnocbui wrote: »

Link to this Apple buying bitcoin rumour please. I have found nothing remotely credible and until I see something, this is a load of BS.

Yeah I've seen lots about it on this and reddit but no actual concrete links still though think bitcoin is finding its base in the 30s now hard to see it drop below tbh

grindle

The rumour could well be BS but the first sign of the Tesla splurge was over a month ago on Reddit, in a thread that remained commentless until Tesla reported it themselves.

Sometimes posts that seem like baseless hopium are true. Apparently.

cnocbui

grindle wrote: »

The rumour could well be BS but the first sign of the Tesla splurge was over a month ago on Reddit, in a thread that remained commentless until Tesla reported it themselves.

Sometimes posts that seem like baseless hopium are true. Apparently.

It's not a f'n rumour, it's a hot air blu skies suggestion by an RBC analyst of what he thinks Apple ought to do, with not the slightest suggestion they have done anyting with Bitcoin.

Apple Inc. should follow in Tesla Inc.’s footsteps, but by getting into cryptocurrencies, not electric vehicles, according to RBC Capital Markets.

The iPhone maker could create a sizable new market for growth if it were to develop its Apple Wallet into a crypto exchange, said analyst Mitch Steves.

”The wallet initiative appears to be a clear multi-billion dollar opportunity for the firm (potential for well over $40 billion in annual revenue with limited R&D),” Steves wrote in a note to clients.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/apple-bull-suggests-creating-crypto-exchange-and-buying-bitcoin

And somehow some brainless idiot or spoofer took that $40 billion in revenue and manufactured a stupid rumour of a $40 Billion investment.

Get a grip on reality and do some basic research.

Stormington

I mentioned Twitter earlier.
Matter of time tbh.
Oracle may be one to watch.

Enter Mastercard.

Lex Luthor

Rob2D wrote: »

One of the old fellas at work bought Litecoin a while back then sold it at the first sign of trouble. When it dipped end of January I'd say. Knew nothing about the Paypal thing. No research done, understands none of it.
After BTC hit $40K the other day and then corrected back to $38K my father came to me in a panic. To "warn me".

These are the type of people we're dealing with here. And I'd say they make up about 80% of this island. If we could get all of them to go in. We could make a lot of money off them.



Rumours of Apple buying in soon. Anything up to $5billion I heard. And that they're working on their own exchange of sorts for the app store.

That would be huge.

These are the same people who said at 5k I'm not buying yet bought at 20k

and now you have people saying no way I'm buying at 40k but will start buying at 100k

Stormington

and now you have people saying no way I'm buying at 40k but will start buying at 100k

We need those people to sell to.

antgal23

Am I starting to get a but worried? No

A bit cautious, yes.

I don't plan on holding a bag of crypto when the market crashes, and it will crash.

New people will learn expensive lessons when they get their faces ripped off.

I am not going to argue with the fact that the market will reach higher highs after it crashes but that process will take years, just like it did in 2013 , 2017 and in 2021.

The emotions and hysteria on Twitter and forums is borderline childish.

In a zero sum game somebody has to lose

TheMilkyPirate

antgal23 wrote: »

Am I starting to get a but worried? No

A bit cautious, yes.

I don't plan on holding a bag of crypto when the market crashes, and it will crash.

New people will learn expensive lessons when they get their faces ripped off.

I am not going to argue with the fact that the market will reach higher highs after it crashes but that process will take years, just like it did in 2013 , 2017 and in 2021.

The emotions and hysteria on Twitter and forums is borderline childish.

In a zero sum game somebody has to lose

In your opinion it will crash. Nobody knows what will happen but the space is much stronger now than it was in 2017 with DeFi NFTs social money more smart contracts and the acceptance of BTC by financial institutions.

If it does crash imo it won't be anywhere near as spectacular as previous dips.