Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

quinneerr

Am i worried?
Short term , a little
Medium to long term NO
End of discussion, close the thread, nothing more to discuss, you would not be here on a crypto forum if you did not believe crypto was going to be successful in the future, this thread is just Debbie Downers, doomsayer after doomsayer saying the end is nigh.
30-1-2018 was when this thread started, crypto has never been healthier, and we still have doom and gloom posters, if you feel that way sell up and leave crypto, it ain't for you.

cnocbui

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Whatever about naturally occurring shifts in global temperature, we know that this shift in climate is man-made or is at least being expedited by man. The warming started after our industrialization, worsening since, with the rate of warming increasing as we developed globally and increased the burning of fossil fuels. 8 of the top 10 hottest days on record occurred in the decade that just passed with those just short of the record occurring after industrialization, and the records go back about 2000 years, which I know is nothing in Earth years, but to have such a shift in climate in such a short space of time, aligning perfectly with a massive increase in carbon emissions, can't be coincidental.

We don't know that this is man made. It's an untested hypothesis. Did anthropogenic CO2 cause the medaeval warming, did it cause the warming spikes on this graph:



I look at that and all I see is the next scheduled bus arriving, right on time. The CO2 and temperature record has been inferred for most of the history of the Earth, not just 2000 years. We are currently - in geological time terms - experincing one of coldest periods in the planets history with some of the lowest levels of CO2 in the atmospere ever seen. Despite the imminent human extinction nonsense, the real norms for the Earth are for significantly higher average temperatures and a lot more CO2 - conditions under which plants and animals thrive, not die. Humans could easily live and thrive in those conditions as well. Agriculture would be far easier and vastly more productive. But I doubt we are close to the Earth returning to such norms. I think this is the warming you naturally get before an ice age kicks off.

Yes, it can be coincidental. The world actually cooled after WW2, despite CO2 output increasing due to wartime manufacturing. 5,000-7,000 years ago, the Earth was far warmer than in recent times. Ireland has a perfect example of this - the Céide Fields in Mayo. The reason they were settled and farmed was because the climate was far nicer, it was warmer, it didn't pour with rain every few hours and the sun shon. The neolithic peoples who settled there thrived - then the climate went to sh*t and the bogs developed. In northern Scotland you have the flow country - Europe's largest bog. 6000 or so years ago it didn't exist for the same reason it didn't at the Céide Fields. That whole are was covered in thick forest - b e c a u s e it was warmer with less rainfall. Did anthropogenic CO2 cause all that - the mid holocene warm period? No.

As you might suspect, i am not concerned about bitcoin mining.

Gas, denying climate change to justify bitcoin.

Similar mindset of Texas oilmen!

Pintman Paddy Losty

Dohnjoe wrote: »

*opinion

It might soar, or it might not, no one knows for sure. Global regulation, anything could happen. This "it will only ever go up" mentality that people have is borderline dogmatic.

I've had BTC for a long time, in my opinion it's pretty useless stuff, it's basically just a speculation token that doesn't produce anything. At best it's an "out of the system" hedge. As for the market, it's almost purely for speculation, there is little or no reason why any of that stuff is there other than for people to try and out-gamble each other. Each passing year this is more and more evident. DeFi and BC related tech is cool, but it's easy enough to replicate if there's an actual need.

In fairness. Great post.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Gas, denying climate change to justify bitcoin.

Similar mindset of Texas oilmen!

Data centres consume 4-5 times as much energy as bitcoin mining - lets shut down the internet.

Dohnjoe

cnocbui wrote: »

Data centres consume 4-5 times as much energy as bitcoin mining - lets shut down the internet.

The internet is actually used for something

crushproof

Ah jeez where does it end?!

Bob24

crushproof wrote: »

Ah jeez where does it end?!

Apparently the Chinese government published a new press release on limiting mining and trading.

I'll have to find a Chinese speaker to get exactly what they are saying :-) (the original source is below but the relevant part of the press release is translated by Google as "crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading behavior").

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-05/21/content_5610192.htm?ivk_sa=1023197a

(funnily some BTC detractors have been mentioning mining concentration in China as a source of concern, so according to them this should be positive news :-))

Rob2D

Strange they should want to clamp down on the mining. Obvious FUD. China always knew what it was doing by holding a lot of BTC. It's gonna give them a great leg up over the US in years to come.

cnocbui

Dohnjoe wrote: »

The internet is actually used for something

It sure is: my medical records are now the property of the Russian intelligence services.

thecomedian

Rob2D wrote: »

Strange they should want to clamp down on the mining. Obvious FUD. China always knew what it was doing by holding a lot of BTC. It's gonna give them a great leg up over the US in years to come.

Do they want to get rid of bitcoin and promote their own crypto instead?

Rob2D

thecomedian wrote: »

Do they want to get rid of bitcoin and promote their own crypto instead?

Or they might want to use BTC as their own in a way. The US is a big threat with it's own crypto coming but nobody will trade the Yuan, real or digital, over the dollar worldwide. At least not yet. But people WILL trade BTC. So I can definitely see China wanting as much as they can get their hands on.

Bob24

Rob2D wrote: »

Strange they should want to clamp down on the mining. Obvious FUD. China always knew what it was doing by holding a lot of BTC. It's gonna give them a great leg up over the US in years to come.

Regulator and government talk is often vague/cryptic on purpose, and they are not being very generous with details here. So I wouldn’t draw any conclusions.

When they say “crack down on mining” it might just mean closing a few dodgy mining operations which have particularly poor environmental impact or are illegally using subsided electricity. It might also be an excuse to close those which are not indirectly controlled by the government while developing others the government has more influence on. Maybe a bit of both to kill 2 birds with one stone.

Also I think they are hinting at the the Chinese population to get ready for their new CBDC.

mcriot29

Bob24 wrote: »

Apparently the Chinese government published a new press release on limiting mining and trading.

I'll have to find a Chinese speaker to get exactly what they are saying :-) (the original source is below but the relevant part of the press release is translated by Google as "crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading behavior").

http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-05/21/content_5610192.htm?ivk_sa=1023197a

(funnily some BTC detractors have been mentioning mining concentration in China as a source of concern, so according to them this should be positive news :-))

They have been clamping down last while on mining was on tv last week showing the police raid a mining place for bit coin place was a big shed full of computers like huge hundreds of them

Donald Trump

Rob2D wrote: »

Or they might want to use BTC as their own in a way. The US is a big threat with it's own crypto coming but nobody will trade the Yuan, real or digital, over the dollar worldwide. At least not yet. But people WILL trade BTC. So I can definitely see China wanting as much as they can get their hands on.

Onshore market is still very restricted and controlled. You need special permission to do anything there. CNY is not freely convertible (and is non-deliverable). You can do what you like in the offshore market alright.

Bob24

mcriot29 wrote: »

They have been clamping down last while on mining was on tv last week showing the police raid a mining place for bit coin place was a big shed full of computers like huge hundreds of them

Yes, and it is not the first time they talk about it either.

Mellor

Mellor wrote: »

It would have disappeared, in the same way that a wind farm that isn't built doesn't generate any power. But the fact the geo-thermal generator exists means it is moving energy to he grid. If mining is using that then it displacing other power which is an issue.
If Icelands power is 100% renewable then it's no impact. And it may be, But the entire extent mining does not occur in 100% renewable zones.

What present of the total mined is mined in Iceland?

I'm not advocating mining, I'm really not, just pointing out that there are locations where it isn't a drain on the world's resources and some mining companies have taken advantage of that over the years. They did it for profit of course, not to save the earth, but still. Btw, I'm not a poster who has defended or promoted BTC/crypto mining.

Iceland's primary energy supply is about 85% renewable now. Much of that other 15% is oil for transport purposes. I've been to dams and hydro stations there, also small businesses dotted around the country. My mind has been blown at how good they have it there in terms of energy availability. It's like a gift from the gods.

It is thought that 8% of BTC in circulation was mined in Iceland, according to the Icelandic Blockchain Foundation. Of course, since people can mine many kinds of crypto at home with their own rigs, I imagine that an even smaller percentage of all the crypto mined in the world has been mined in Iceland.

If the world is going to eventually move to a new form of money, it sure as hell will need to be exponentially greener than BTC.

If you are interested in further reading, I recommend these articles...

https://www.wired.com/story/iceland-bitcoin-mining-gallery/

https://www.dw.com/en/bitcoin-mining-is-scandinavias-cryptoboom-coming-to-an-end/a-57443905

HGVRHKYY

thecomedian wrote: »

Do they want to get rid of bitcoin and promote their own crypto instead?

Definitely contributes towards it, digital yuan being widely used would give them a lot more of a hold on their population

Jeff2

Another big drop coming now.

Jeff2

ETH going below €1800 any second now.

Edit and has.

FileNotFound

How low can it go really.

Where does one set the limit buy on this, or is it going further like plenty of online peeps seem to claim!!

HillCloudHop

Why are people so eager to rush in and 'buy the dip' now? Give it a few months to see if this is a true bear market. DCA in then over a couple of years and wait patiently for the next bull run.

DonnieCorko

Hey guys. Wondering if anyone has had issues transferring money from Binance to AIB. Amount isnt small but not 6 figures either. Worried in case they may freeze my account or whatever.

FileNotFound

HillCloudHop wrote: »

Why are people so eager to rush in and 'buy the dip' now? Give it a few months to see if this is a true bear market. DCA in then over a couple of years and wait patiently for the next bull run.

I guess that's the "if" getting to people.

I'm new to this and like an excited muppet wanting to jump on any decent drop haha. Thankfully what's in is in already.

Rob2D

DonnieCorko wrote: »

Hey guys. Wondering if anyone has had issues transferring money from Binance to AIB. Amount isnt small but not 6 figures either. Worried in case they may freeze my account or whatever.

Just give them a buzz beforehand and clear it.

Jeff2

HillCloudHop wrote: »

Why are people so eager to rush in and 'buy the dip' now? Give it a few months to see if this is a true bear market. DCA in then over a couple of years and wait patiently for the next bull run.

Because some buy the dip sell the high and no interest in long term.
Make fast money.

I've made money today.

jmlad2020

If you're worried now you're in the wrong game. Don't invest in Cryptocurrency if you can't afford to lose it all.

A bit to advice.

Jeff2

jmlad2020 wrote: »

If you're worried now you're in the wrong game. Don't invest in Cryptocurrency if you can't afford to lose it all.

A bit to advice.

You forgot to add go for blue chip shares.
But its less fun.

HillCloudHop

jmlad2020 wrote: »

If you're worried now you're in the wrong game. Don't invest in Cryptocurrency if you can't afford to lose it all.

A bit to advice.

There's no point blindly 'buying the dip' and giving money to the bears either. It will take months for this to bottom out.

SortingYouOut

HillCloudHop wrote: »

There's no point blindly 'buying the dip' and giving money to the bears either. It will take months for this to bottom out.

What makes you so sure about that?

SortingYouOut

SortingYouOut wrote: »

What makes you so sure about that?

None of us can be sure, but the signs aren't exactly 'bullish'...

- At least 80 btc/alt pairings on Binance are in double digit reds for the past 24 hours. This follows days of red before it.

- Over half of the Top 100 on CMC are at least 50% down over the past 7 days, many of them down at least 60% from their 2021 high.

What went from something which could have been a market correction earlier in the week (if we rebounded) has now descended into a full-on crash as the week progressed. If the Americans don't wake up today and buy these "discounts" or at best hold, there's no telling how low this will go in the short term.

Dohnjoe

SortingYouOut wrote: »

What makes you so sure about that?

No one is sure. But am not the slightest bit surprised it's going down, put it that way. Likewise I wouldn't be surprised if, despite some token rallies, this kicks off a longer bear trend.

If that occurs, am fine with it, I sold much of my stack over the past months and will rebuy in if it gets low enough again in a year or two.

Usual disclaimer: anything could happen

Dohnjoe

Aeon Fx wrote: »

What we have seen the last week or two is an orchestrated transfer of wealth in the market. Whales and institutions selling huge positions and taking huge positions driving price down forcing out weak minded retail investors and forcing them into liquidation so the bigger players can accumulate bigger positions for more control in the future.

Now is by far the best time to buy ETH for example at 2000$ as of right now its dropped more than 50% from its ATH. It's an easy call and its at this price point big positions and players are quickly taking over the market unbeknown to the average retail trader.

Everyone I know most of whom are 6/7 figure traders are all buying up huge stacks on their main asset's in this space right now while hedging small short positions to cover the downside in the meantime.

lol

OEP

SortingYouOut wrote: »

What makes you so sure about that?

Basically betting on history repeating itself, which isn't a bad bet to make

HillCloudHop

Aeon Fx wrote: »

Now is by far the best time to buy ETH for example at 2000$ as of right now its dropped more than 50% from its ATH. It's an easy call and its at this price point big positions and players are quickly taking over the market unbeknown to the average retail trader.

To paraphrase Warren Buffet, 'The cryptocurrency market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.'

I'm in no rush to buy more, certainly not at these prices. The suicide hotline on Reddit hasn't been posted yet for example.

The streets aren't bloody enough for me. I'll likely start buying in 3-6 months time at the earliest. Maybe there will be another rally in the meantime, so be it.

mcriot29

It’s very possible they will all drop another 20 percent over the next few months, buying now may not even be a good idea just my view.

Dohnjoe

HillCloudHop wrote: »

To paraphrase Warren Buffet, 'The cryptocurrency market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.'

100%

I'm in no rush to buy more, certainly not at these prices. The suicide hotline on Reddit hasn't been posted yet for example.

Actually it has, posted several times for that 20% in one hour drop the other day

The streets aren't bloody enough for me. I'll likely start buying in 3-6 months time at the earliest. Maybe there will be another rally in the meantime, so be it.

I'm speculating there'll be a "spring 2018" style rally, and if it slips into that pattern, then I'll be looking at buying around a year from now

HillCloudHop

Aeon Fx wrote: »

Streets not bloody enough lol I like that spoken like a shark. All depends on available capital I guess throwing 1% of capital for me at this price is still a very safe risk appropriate investment.

I'm just looking to build huge positions over time and these are the prices to get in at but I'd be happy to get in lower again no doubt

I'm only guessing like everyone else here. I just have badly scarred hands from catching knives in the 2018 crash. I prefer accumulating in established bear markets if possible.

Chuckie_Egg

Its peak was around 60k, we've had several 80% sell offs in the past, a few 90% ones but they are very rare, so an 80% drop from there is back to 12k (I reckon 10k support) Its possible it could drop further as it really depends on what is driving the sell off. It's more than profit taking, I suspect something else is going on in the background. One thing for sure is the Elon party is over for now

Dohnjoe

Aeon Fx wrote: »

Streets not bloody enough lol I like that spoken like a shark. All depends on available capital I guess throwing 1% of capital for me at this price is still a very safe risk appropriate investment.

I'm just looking to build huge positions over time and these are the prices to get in at but I'd be happy to get in lower again no doubt

We're only 2 weeks into this. It's crypto, anything could happen, but personally, I'd give it time.

In 2018 many said we weren't going to see sub $400 Eth again, but there we were buying sub $100 Eth by that Christmas. And speaking of 2018, I'd overlay that chart and zoom out.

SortingYouOut

Dohnjoe wrote: »

We're only 2 weeks into this. It's crypto, anything could happen, but personally, I'd give it time.

In 2018 many said we weren't going to see sub $400 Eth again, but there we were buying sub $100 Eth by that Christmas. And speaking of 2018, I'd overlay that chart and zoom out.

Speaking as someone who knows sweet feck all, so bear with me.

Is/could the 2018 crash be comparable to this if the new supply of bitcoin is now lower and there seems to be more institutional buy in. I know Elon Musk shook things by taking Tesla out as a potential user of the currency for sales but we still have others, including heavy hitting financial institutions. The miners aren't selling at the moment and there had been a spike of purchases from institutions, according to Coindesk, at Wednesday's dip. Seems like the foundations are a bit more solid this time around, so that along with reduced supply should surely see less of a dip this time around?

I could come back to this post in a few months with egg on my face but i'm just interested in people's opinions on it.

OEP

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Speaking as someone who knows sweet feck all, so bear with me.

Is/could the 2018 crash be comparable to this if the new supply of bitcoin is now lower and there seems to be more institutional buy in. I know Elon Musk shook things by taking Tesla out as a potential user of the currency for sales but we still have others, including heavy hitting financial institutions. The miners aren't selling at the moment and there had been a spike of purchases from institutions, according to Coindesk, at Wednesday's dip. Seems like the foundations are a bit more solid this time around, so that along with reduced supply should surely see less of a dip this time around?

I could come back to this post in a few months with egg on my face but i'm just interested in people's opinions on it.

Certainly possible. For Ethereum, if EIP 1559 is successful that could cause another bull run.

Dohnjoe

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Speaking as someone who knows sweet feck all, so bear with me.

Is/could the 2018 crash be comparable to this if the new supply of bitcoin is now lower and there seems to be more institutional buy in. I know Elon Musk shook things by taking Tesla out as a potential user of the currency for sales but we still have others, including heavy hitting financial institutions. The miners aren't selling at the moment and there had been a spike of purchases from institutions, according to Coindesk, at Wednesday's dip. Seems like the foundations are a bit more solid this time around, so that along with reduced supply should surely see less of a dip this time around?

I could come back to this post in a few months with egg on my face but i'm just interested in people's opinions on it.

Most crypto "info" is just made-up speculation and guesswork, china-this and institutional-that. It's ultimately down to the sentiment of the herd, which, if we zoom right out, has somewhat of a pattern now. Are we mid 2017? possibly, there's a chance, but I wouldn't risk that because there's a likelihood we are early 2018.

Either way, I'd be waiting for a proper bear to buy, wouldn't touch in this. And yes there will be rallies and rebounds that will scoop up a lot of people.

Edit: as always take anyone's advice with a pinch of salt

snowstreams

mcriot29 wrote: »

It’s very possible they will all drop another 20 percent over the next few months, buying now may not even be a good idea just my view.

I'm looking at 2018. I could see most alts dropping another 90 % over the next year going by it. But stronger alts should have a few more runs later in the year.

bankboucy

Hope everyone got in on DeFi100 project:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:5Z6siy-TQDUJ:https://defi100.org/+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

Whelo79

bankboucy wrote: »

Hope everyone got in on DeFi100 project:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:5Z6siy-TQDUJ:https://defi100.org/+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

What age are you? I'm going to guess you are probably about 22, and immature for your age.

You are like the sad football fan who enjoys going into his rival teams thread to gloat about them being beaten.

bankboucy

Just trying to bring a little balance into the everything is awesome tone that you seem to peddle in……..its not awesome and people are getting conned and robbed……and folks should know that

cnocbui

bankboucy wrote: »

Just trying to bring a little balance into the everything is awesome tone that you seem to peddle in……..its not awesome and people are getting conned and robbed……and folks should know that

I am into bitcoin, everything is awesome. Thanks for your fake concern.

bankboucy

cnocbui wrote: »

I am into bitcoin, everything is awesome. Thanks for your fake concern.

OK bro - i tried to help - your BTC will be down 80% from todays price this time next year…….if you cant see a bubble popping before your eyes….well your doing others a big favor hodling on……to let them out before you. Your man of your principles going down with the Titanic

HGVRHKYY

bankboucy wrote: »

OK bro - i tried to help - your BTC will be down 80% from todays price this time next year…….if you cant see a bubble popping before your eyes….well your doing others a big favor hodling on……to let them out before you. Your man of your principles going down with the Titanic

Yeah, we're all well aware of the highly likely scenario that this bull run could be well finished and we'll be in a bear market by then, you're not saying or understanding anything differently to what's already commonly perceived by anyone who's aware of the history of BTC/crypto