Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

pauldry

Another wintry mess in NW but Eastern half of country will get snow. The West will prob get sleet. NW hail sleet and some snow, SW zero,
Northern Ireland snow away from coast, Leinster snow widely

Thats what I see panning out Tuesday

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

EC certainly much watered down compared to yesterday's 0z in terms of longevity of this cold snap.....

However, with regards to Monday night, still very similar with 2-5cm accumulated snow progged widely across Ulster, Leinster, east Connacht and parts of east Munster.

The U.S met service is not overly impressed with the ECM at the moment in their technical forecast notes

arctictree

Donegal Storm wrote: »

The precedent is unfortunately that the Atlantic wins out with snow falling over the UK. I've never seen a worthwhile frontal snow event in my 30 odd years living here

Depends where you live. We've had 2 or 3 frontal snow events this year alone in Wicklow!

Elmer Blooker

squarecircles wrote: »

I'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.
Turning into a Watery mess as usual.

Me too. I've been saying over and over that we have to get rid of you know what to get a proper cold spell. A +NAO never delivered anything worth getting excited about.
More of the same, cold nw'lies. The pattern almost always persists from January into February anyway.

sryanbruen

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Me too. I've been saying over and over that we have to get rid of you know what to get a proper cold spell. A +NAO never delivered anything worth getting excited about.
More of the same, cold nw'lies. The pattern almost always persists from January into February anyway.

February 1991 was a positive NAO.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

February 1991 was a positive NAO.

Was it? This chart doesn't look too positive to me with a sluggish looking PV, a big Scand high ridging to Greenland and LP over France. Not to mention a weak and insignificant Azores quite far south.

sryanbruen

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Was it? This chart doesn't look too positive to me with a sluggish looking PV, a big Scand high ridging to Greenland and LP over France. Not to mention a weak and insignificant Azores quite far south.

That particular chart is neutral to slightly negative. Look at the monthly index figure for example: 0.74 - the most positive figure of the entire Winter of 1990-91 despite being the coldest month.

Go back nearly a week before hand and the positive NAO is evident:



Moderately strong PV there over Greenland along with a moderately strong Azores High too but with Scandinavian blocking trying to bring the winds into the east fighting off the Atlantic from the normal conditions a positive NAO would bring. Any time, the Atlantic would try and battle, it would bring heavy snow to many as precipitation comes up against the cold air - the Scandinavian block was more intense than the PV and Azores High.

Even a few days after the one you posted, you can see the Atlantic about to get its normal action going here as the Azores High and PV strengthen along with the Scandinavian block becoming non-existent:

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

I'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.
Turning into a Watery mess as usual.

Never say never

fraxinus1

So it’s starting to go pear shaped. Disappointed yet again but my SAD is starting to lift with the advent of the brighter evenings so I’m going to forget about snow and ice. It’s exhausting; the continuous talk of cold and ‘beasts from the east’ etc only for it all to be cruelly snatched away from us every time. The Spring is here and I’m looking forward to the garden and nature in general returning to life. I’m done with winter threads. Over and out.

Snowbiee21

fraxinus1 wrote: »

So it’s starting to go pear shaped. Disappointed yet again but my SAD is starting to lift with the advent of the brighter evenings so I’m going to forget about snow and ice. It’s exhausting; the continuous talk of cold and ‘beasts from the east’ etc only for it all to be cruelly snatched away from us every time. The Spring is here and I’m looking forward to the garden and nature in general returning to life. I’m done with winter threads. Over and out.

Tod off so, have you not looked for Monday or Tuesday or , I thought you were going Dublin .. eek

grenouille1966

Spring begins on March 1...where is all this February 'Spring' rubbish coming from??

Met Eirean classify Spring as starting on March 1 and ending on 31 May. Summer starts on 1 June in Ireland ....according to Met Eireann anyway..

George Sunsnow

Nothing is going pear shaped
Monday night into Tuesday a lot of the country will see snow
There’s another possibility later in the week
Beyond that No ones been commenting beyond the usual run to run speculation

So may I respectfully suggest anyone who wants to moan and give out get their own thread elsewhere preferably hidden somewhere where no one else can find it
Life’s too short
A friend of mines wife found a lump on her breast 4 months ago
She’s now in a wheelchair with doctors giving her 6 weeks to 3 months tops to live
Young family
Now that’s a crisis

giveitholly

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Nothing is going pear shaped
Monday night into Tuesday a lot of the country will see snow
There’s another possibility later in the week
Beyond that No ones been commenting beyond the usual run to run speculation

So may I respectfully suggest anyone who wants to moan and give out get their own thread elsewhere preferably hidden somewhere where no one else can find it
Life’s too short
A friend of mines wife found a lump on her breast 4 months ago
She’s now in a wheelchair with doctors giving her 6 weeks to 3 months tops to live
Young family
Now that’s a crisis

Well said,thoughts with you and her family

patneve2

Still expecting snow here late Monday/early Tuesday, let's see how it pans out. Hopefully we'll all avoid freezing rain.

Larbre34

grenouille1966 wrote: »

Spring begins on March 1...where is all this February 'Spring' rubbish coming from??

Met Eirean classify Spring as starting on March 1 and ending on 31 May. Summer starts on 1 June in Ireland ....according to Met Eireann anyway..

Happens every year, pagan prehistoric nonsense . If anyone argues just tell them how can they contradict the three warmest stat months being summer and three coldest being winter and the other seasons deriving from that. Its just science

PokeHerKing

Larbre34 wrote:

Happens every year, pagan prehistoric nonsense . If anyone argues just tell them how can they contradict the three warmest stat months being summer and three coldest being winter and the other seasons deriving from that. Its just science

To be fair astronomy is science too. You can put a scientific argument forward for it based on astronomy.

I'm a weather fan so I'm firmly still in winter but who really cares at the end of the day.

I'm more impressed with fraxinus1 ability to consistently troll the weather forum.

Donegal Storm

arctictree wrote: »

Depends where you live. We've had 2 or 3 frontal snow events this year alone in Wicklow!

Just speaking from my own experience, some areas well inland and usually on higher ground have seen quite a few frontal snow events over the years I'm sure but I can't remember a single memorable one where a front stalled over the country giving a good nationwide covering as happens in the UK.

Franz Von Peppercorn

grenouille1966 wrote: »

Spring begins on March 1...where is all this February 'Spring' rubbish coming from??

Met Eirean classify Spring as starting on March 1 and ending on 31 May. Summer starts on 1 June in Ireland ....according to Met Eireann anyway..

Standard Celtic seasons were based on length of day.

Lumi

fraxinus1 is taking an extended break from the weather forum

Can we get back to discussing the approaching cold and please, rather than dragging the thread off topic, report the post(s) and let the mod team deal with it - my thanks to those who took the trouble to do so.

George Sunsnow

This is the projected snow accumulation chart for Tuesday morning from the 0z ECM

Irish Steve

Frontal snow..........

Memories of Late 70's in South West England, a front struggled in from the Atlantic, and dumped about 3 Ft of snow across the South West overnight on a Saturday, and then stalled around the middle of the country, and then got pushed back again by an Easterly on the Sunday night, which dumped another 3 Ft or so on the way back, so we all woke up on Monday Morning to a very different picture.

We were in an urban area, and the road outside the house was a bus route, but nothing moved down our road for 4 days, directly outside the windows, we could see tarmac, because of the way it drifted, but down the middle of the road, the drift was 6 Ft deep. The relevant authorities had to get assistance from the military and anyone else that had machines that could move snow to get the roads open again. we had a door on the windward side of the house that wasn't used much, just as well, after the second session, when we opened the door, the snow had drifted in the wind to above the door level, due to the shape of the house and the surrounding structures. Fortunately, the door on the other side of the house was only about 3 Ft outside it, so we were still jst about able to get in and out to dig out the rabbit hutch and feed them, though we didn't do much else, there was nowhere to go due to the state of the roads.

We've been in Ashbourne for close on 28 years, and I've never seen snow to the same degree here, even though we're further north, there have been a few events that have lasted for more than 24 hours, not many, and I've never not been able to get home through it, but the reasons for that are probably best left for another thread and time.

Snowbiee21

Any snow that falls will surely lie around for a time come Tuesday ??

Kermit.de.frog

Afternoon everyone

Not much change on the models this morning regarding Monday and Tuesday. Still the snow potential there for Monday night with broad cross model support. GFS arguably the weakest.

Monday - Wednesday will be very cold days (typically 1 - 4 c) with occasional sleet and snow showers (transitioning more to rain in western counties by Wednesday morning). Longer period of snow possible in the northwest and north Tuesday evening.

Thursday looks like it will be a milder day at this stage with some rain before a cold incursion again from the northwest overnight Thursday and for Friday with snow showers particularly in the northwest.

The night time temperatures overall very low with the exception of Wednesday night. Typically minima between 0 and -5 c. Monday night slightly milder due to the precipitation.

That's my guidance but going beyond Tuesday night brings a serious health warning in terms of reliability on specifics at the moment. We can only go with generalities for now.

I know it's frustrating for some. My advice would be to take a step back every now and then and take one potential event at a time.

Larbre34

Now lets cross over to Met Éireann for the weather and sea area forecast, good afternoon Gerry Murphy....

Kermit.de.frog

I see the ICON model has cheered up from yesterday.





Not particularly heavy or active but key here is very much time of arrival. Temperatures around freezing across much of the east.







Snow should be expected to settle readily and that's how we could get our few cm's.

Arpege is more of the same






Note the agreement on timing now is the early hours of the morning which is as ideal as it gets.

kod87

timing certainly looks good, but even if it falls as snow from beginning to end I don't expect that it will amount to much, the front looks a bit 'lightweight'.

JCX BXC

Nothing for me at least

Kermit.de.frog

Euro4 brings in sub -10 c 850 hpa temperatures to the southeast by early Monday morning

Soccarboy11

come on cork.... we need some lying snow here in the city!

km79

Looks dry in the West
Lovely