Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

sdanseo

HIRLAM wants a band of snow tomorrow afternoon across the east, but warming quickly after it passes. Even GFS saying rain though so probably unlikely to come off:



Looking through the various models towards the weekend and beyond there seem to be plenty of snow opportunities.

squarecircles

They seemed to keep quiet about weather after Thursday after the 9 news, 18z gfs shows snow coming in from the northwest on Friday and again on Sunday,interesting...

sdanseo

squarecircles wrote: »

They seemed to keep quiet about weather after Thursday after the 9 news, 18z gfs shows snow coming in from the northwest on Friday and again on Sunday,interesting...

All westerly though - not even really any decent northerly component. Hard to see the influence even into +240hrs of the easterly cold like we were seeing up to 24-48hrs ago.

It's necessary to look into the crystal ball of +300hrs (note to those with pacemakers or heart conditions, look away now) to find that sort of snowmageddon.

nacho libre

sdanseo wrote: »

All westerly though - not even really any decent northerly component.

That is when the effects of Stratospheric warming should be coming into focus. Although worringly the ec46 wasn't great tonight, but maybe that's just down to not being able to get a handle on the impact of the SSW on the troposphere. We are though dealing with a powerful Vortex over Canada, so we are banking on it being obiliterated, because if it's not totally destroyed by the warmings, then it's probably game over for us. It also means in the here and now we will have to endure it throwing fronts at us for another little while.

JCX BXC

Nice and toasty +2.7c here in West Clare

Worst winter for frost in a long time. 2016/17 winter wasn't particularly remarkable however there was a good 5 day period with nice frosts.

pad199207

Completely clouded over here in Naas and it looks like it’s about to snow because the sky has that deep orange glow to it.

-1c

M.T. Cranium

Looks like the February sun lost the battle with snow here ...



(after a snowslide onto nearby highway in the Selkirk Mountains near where I now live) ...

Kermit.de.frog

Cold and icy morning. Around -1.5 c at the moment in north Dublin.

Hirlam still indicates a small risk of light temporary snowfall in parts of the east this afternoon.

Starting to cloud over now so that frost and ice may be stubborn for a while.

ongarboy

Surprising amount of patchy lying snow remaining this morning in particularly shaded spots around Dublin 15 where the sun didn't have impact yesterday. A thick hoar frost also to add to the wintery effect!

flanzer

What are the charts looking like for Thursday into Friday? When do you think we'll get a better picture?

Gaoth Laidir

Paris was badly hit with snow yesterday. 15 cm of lying snow reported at Paris Orły airport this morning, 13 cm at Charles de Gaulle. Record traffic jams yesterday evening (739 km in Ile de France alone). The Eiffel Tower closed and so are many schools today.

thomasj

ongarboy wrote:

Surprising amount of patchy lying snow remaining this morning in particularly shaded spots around Dublin 15 where the sun didn't have impact yesterday. A thick hoar frost also to add to the wintery effect!

Yeah I noticed that myself on the way to work this morning. Strange!

lolie

Any reports of snow falling from this or is it high up like early Monday evening?

pauldry

Some reports of light snow in rural Sligo this morning

Just drizzle in the town n ice from last night

George Sunsnow

My view of Lugnaquilla from near Arklow this morning

lolie

pauldry wrote: »

Some reports of light snow in rural Sligo this morning

Just drizzle in the town n ice from last night

Started snowing very very lightly at 10 o'clock for a short while but just light rain now despite the netweather radar still showing snow.

Gonzo

frost melted very quickly here this morning. Still lying snow left in shaded parts of garden from yesterday, I expect this to melt very quickly over next few hours.

pilly

20180206_173705.jpg

Galtee Mountains yesterday evening.

Nettle Soup

pilly wrote: »

20180206_173705.jpg

Galtee Mountains yesterday evening.

Nice! Keep them coming. Looks like decent snow from 300m.

sryanbruen

'Twas a lovely frosty and icy morning at Grange.

Bio Mech

sryanbruen wrote: »

'Twas a lovely frosty and icy morning at Grange.

Your neighbor with the attic conversion didn’t do a great job on the roof insulation!

highdef

Bio Mech wrote: »

Your neighbor with the attic conversion didn’t do a great job on the roof insulation!

That was the very first thing I thought too!!!

sryanbruen

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Scattered snow showers Thursday night and Friday with accumulations of less than 3cm possible. Showers most frequent in the west and north. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces.

Issued:Wednesday 07 February 2018 13:00
Valid:Thursday 08 February 2018 21:00 to Friday 09 February 2018 12:00

Oneiric 3

3 hour frames (based on GFS analysis + 3h forecast) showing the 850 hPa temps during the cold snap:



the -10.0c istotherm apparently never made it fully in to Ireland, despite some of the models (inc the GFS) forecasting that it would, albeit for a brief amount of time. Also of note is that the coldest of the 850 hPa temps were associated with a 'diverging' flow, which means that higher pressure (descending air) was dominant, which helped to quell the potential for serious shower activity to become initiated. Had the same temp profile been associated with a more cyclonic flow, it would have been a given that snow reports on here would have been vast and plentiful.

Perhaps when the 'AMO' switches back to negative, which it is expected to do in about 10 years time, we'll have better chances of seeing some real snowy weather, whether it be from the east or the west.

George Sunsnow

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

the -10.0c istotherm apparently never made it fully in to Ireland, despite some of the models (inc the GFS) forecasting that it would, albeit for a brief amount of time. .

Not surprised
Hit 6.7c here at the time that -10 air was meant to be overhead

RobertKK

Most of the snow from the other night is gone but still patches of snow around.
Got a high of 4.0C today, currently 3.2C.
Yesterday had a high of 2.6C, while in nearby Kilkenny city it was over 5C.

Gonzo

the last of the snow was fully melted here by about 1pm.

sdanseo

Apologies if this doesn't require its own thread. However MÉ have issued a fresh warning suggesting confidence in a similar type of event as occurred on Monday.

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Scattered snow showers Thursday night and Friday with accumulations of less than 3cm possible. Showers most frequent in the west and north. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces.

Issued:Wednesday 07 February 2018 13:00
Valid:Thursday 08 February 2018 21:00 to Friday 09 February 2018 12:00

Looks like showers could pop up just about anywhere:

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs handled the last debacle quite well and is showing quite a few wintry showers tomorrow night..
I don't rate the harmonies or Icon models at all!!

Plenty to look forward to going forward more wintry weather possible on Monday

Meteorite58

So cold front followed by a trough to cross the country tomorrow evening / night with increasingly cold uppers. The W and N getting the highest totals it would seem. Post frontal airmass possibly producing Thunder/ hail showers also. Some places getting more snow then the frontal snow on Mon night/ Tues morning perhaps.