Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

JCX BXC

Thought the one Kermit set up was for the week?

Anyway Shannon, Cork and Dublin all have sleet showers in their 11pm TAF's, with Knock and Belfast having snow in their forecasts (Knock with the added bonus of -SHSNGS, snow graupel.)

sdanseo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Thought the one Kermit set up was for the week?

I wasn't sure as there are specific dates in that one, and this potential didn't really have anywhere to be discussed. But mods please merge if that's more appropriate

JCX BXC

sdanseo wrote: »

I wasn't sure as there are specific dates in that one, and this potential didn't really have anywhere to be discussed. But mods please merge if that's more appropriate

Aye wasn't directed at you just wasn't sure of the protocol on here (if any).

pistolpetes11

threads merged now

Gaoth Laidir

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

threads merged now

Two threads for Thursday are showing up on my phone. Both are the same but with slightly different titles. Which one do we post in?

pistolpetes11

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Two threads for Thursday are showing up on my phone. Both are the same but with slightly different titles. Which one do we post in?

Both redirected to here but I have second gone now , thanks

JCX BXC

Belfast Aldergrove TAF amended and all mention of snow and sleet removed, only rain showers.

Rebelbrowser

GFS has handled recent snow events well so the below chart for 15 hours time is worth posting I think (in other years we would have threads going mad over this kind of chart....)



Maybe, just maybe, the snow starved south west might see something out of this. Next Mon/Tues looks interesting too and then there's the chance of an easterly in FI...... Good times.

Rebelbrowser

Euro 04 is less bullish but still promising later on...

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

GFS has handled recent snow events well so the below chart for 15 hours time is worth posting I think (in other years we would have threads going mad over this kind of chart....)



Maybe, just maybe, the snow starved south west might see something out of this. Next Mon/Tues looks interesting too and then there's the chance of an easterly in FI...... Good time:)s.

The Met Eireann update doesn't look that great this morning in terms of snow for tonight. Hopefully we'll get something either today or Sunday/Monday.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Met Eireann update doesn't look that great this morning in terms of snow for tonight. Hopefully we'll get something either today or Sunday/Monday.

Actually Siobhan Ryan at 7.55am was very clear there are going to be widespread snow showers tonight. West and North singled out.

Rebelbrowser

Hirlam has another unexpected east coast bounty from westerly cold...

Rebelbrowser

To complete the set, GEM and Arpege show rain only - and lets face it they will probably be nearest to the ultimate precipitation.....

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

To complete the set, GEM and Arpege show rain only - and lets face it they will probably be nearest to the ultimate precipitation.....

I have big hopes that we will eventually get something from the north east towards the end of the month but anything from the Atlantic would be a bonus.

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Belfast Aldergrove TAF amended and all mention of snow and sleet removed, only rain showers.

They have just amended it again to include TEMPO 1000 m vis in moderate snow showers from 11 pm.

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

I have big hopes that we will eventually get something from the north east towards the end of the month but anything from the Atlantic would be a bonus pure muck.

Fixed your post...

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Fixed your post...

Our snow standards are very low in the south west!

pauldry

Yes looks like more slush ice muck hail graupel for us in Sligo town tonight

Rebelbrowser

pauldry wrote: »

Yes looks like more slush ice muck hail graupel for us in Sligo town tonight

Sadly I'd be quite happy with slush ice muck hail graupel in my parts.

Rebelbrowser

6z runs still look interesting though, just to annoy me personally no doubt, one tiny square pixel of pink has been turned blue over Cork city in the GFS....

JCX BXC

Dublin, Cork, Knock and Belfast all have snow showers in their forecasts, and Shannon, as usual, only has a possibility of sleet.

Rebelbrowser

JCX BXC wrote: »

Dublin, Cork, Knock and Belfast all have snow showers in their forecasts, and Shannon, as usual, only has a possibility of sleet.

That's an "upgrade" in the last hour so maybe this thing has a bit of potential tonight afterall. Can't remember last time Cork airport actually had snow, rather than sleet, forecast.

Extract from 12pm TAF for Cork

"from 08 at 23 UTC to 09 at 09 UTC

Visibility: 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 500 ft
Scattered clouds at a height of 1800 ft, Cumulonimbus.

light snow showers"

patneve2

Surprised by the GFS ppn charts for late this evening in the E as well as met eireann's "some accumulations are likely overnight" in Dublin's regional forecast. Not expecting much but will check in after 10 pm to nowcast a bit

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

Dublin, Cork, Knock and Belfast all have snow showers in their forecasts, and Shannon, as usual, only has a possibility of sleet.

Only Cork and Knock have it as likely. Dublin and Belfast just PROB40

George Sunsnow

Prob40 is the highest probability on a taf though
Meaning it’s more likely than unlikely

munsterlegend

The Radio 1 forecast at 12 53 was quite wintry for tonight mentioning plenty snow showers for the north and west. Hopefully there will he some lying in the morning.

pilly

What time is snow predicted for tonight?

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Prob40 is the highest probability on a taf though
Meaning it’s more likely than unlikely

No it doesn't, it means 40% probability, which is more unlikely than likely. I was taught it means "chance of occurring but not enough to be included as a BECMG or TEMPO (which are "certain", or as certain as can be in a forecast). PROB30 means "warrants a mention but is unlikely to occur".

George Sunsnow

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No it doesn't, it means 40% probability, which is more unlikely than likely. I was taught it means "chance of occurring but not enough to be included as a BECMG or TEMPO (which are "certain", or as certain as can be in a forecast). PROB30 means "warrants a mention but is unlikely to occur".

I was taught different
But yeah Exactly more likely than unlikely
If it was unlikely it would not be mentioned at all
If it was certain it wouldn’t be given a probability at all

pistolpetes11

What models are the TAFs comprised from ?

They seem to change every model run , Im guessing there is also forecaster intuition involved also ?