Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

Rebelbrowser

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

come on cork.... we need some lying snow here in the city!

In that regard I note the ME online forecast this morning talked of rain turning to snow over ulster and leinster but now says it will be snow in some places without naming any provinces. may reflect the charts posted above showing some of munster getting in on the act too.

Meteorite58

IMO it looks like a very cold start on Mon countrywide, later in the day and into the evening and overnight as the front makes it's transit over the Eastern side of the country looks like snowing but as has been said the front looks weak and may just drop a couple of cm's on lower levels?The SE looks more promising now for snow I think with those very cold upper airs but will there be enough precipitation left to reach there ( the GFS is suggesting lying snow in the SE all day Tues ).
As the front goes through there looks to be an increase in temps by a couple of degrees on the Western side of the country for a few hours before cold air follows. Looks like very cold uppers with wintry showers from passing troughs from early Tues along Atlantic coasts and moving some bit inland also but temps look too high for snow/ hail settling on lower ground there. Windy along coasts from the NW once the front goes through from Mon into Tues making it feel bitter cold.

Kermit.de.frog

Slight upgrade on the GFS, 850 hpa temps a degree or two lower generally as the precipitation arrives. Got another degree to go really before it matches the WRF and the higher res models. Currently it's mixed but increasingly snow as the front passes through.

Right direction for snowfall Monday night.


EDIT: GFS also upgrading snow potential for the northwest on Tuesday night - scattered snow showers elsewhere.





Going to be some very low temperatures too overnight Tuesday on this evidence.

Snowbiee21

If you look closely , Kermit’s location is snow free😄

onmebike

Looks like we can expect Gerry Murphy to be taking Force Majeure leave between now and Monday night! :pac:

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO has sub -8 850 hpa temps well embedded in the eastern half of the country on Monday ahead of the front.

squarecircles

onmebike wrote: »

Looks like we can expect Gerry Murphy to be taking Force Majeure leave between now and Monday night! :pac:

He's rang in with man flu apparently.

What id really like now is a good indepth porn forecast from Evelyn,explaining 850 hpa temperatures.She great for the ramping.

typhoony

No occlusion on the front coming in Monday night, Midlands looks good for snow, light enough winds as it passes through should help evaropatuve cooling, last week I thought it would be sizzle hopefully it drops a few cm's of snow

Easterly Beasterly

typhoony wrote: »

No occlusion on the front coming in Monday night, Midlands looks good for snow, light enough winds as it passes through should help evaropatuve cooling, last week I thought it would be sizzle hopefully it drops a few cm's of snow

What impact does this have on the weather front?

Kermit.de.frog

12z Arpege, Monday night

Kermit.de.frog

Hirlam brings in -10 850 hpa temperatures to the southeast on Monday ahead of the front

squarecircles

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hirlam brings in -10 850 hpa temperatures to the southeast on Monday ahead of the front

I wonder is there any chance of that colder air spreading further west before the front arrives.
I.e bring snow to western areas too

Meteorite58

ARPEGE

Kermit.de.frog

12z Euro4 850 hpa temps Monday afternoon. This has snow written all over it.






-6 isotherm notably much further west as well which potentially brings western counties also in for some snow potential...

George Sunsnow

With snow it’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen
I only recorded 1mm from last nights front for example which wouldn’t translate to a lot of snow

Regarding Monday night though,warmer air hitting that kind of cold peps up precip and Cold air as cold as what visits Monday being hard to shift might yet delay the fronts passage in the east or southeast which could lead to very wintry scenes indeed?

That -10 isotherm seems to be fairly supported across Wicklow Carlow and Wexford Monday ,as a weather enthusiast triple exciting the excitement as to how cold those Day time temps down here will be
What a time to have my new weather station up and running and tweeting

dublincelt

George Sunsnow wrote: »

With snow it’s very hard to predict what’s going to happen
I only recorded 1mm from last nights front for example which wouldn’t translate to a lot of snow

Regarding Monday night though,warmer air hitting that kind of cold peps up precip and Cold air as cold as what visits Monday being hard to shift might yet delay the fronts passage in the east or southeast which could lead to very wintry scenes indeed?

That -10 isotherm seems to be fairly supported across Wicklow Carlow and Wexford Monday ,as a weather enthusiast triple exciting the excitement as to how cold those Day time temps down here will be
What a time to have my new weather station up and running and tweeting

What a time to live in Carlow Town by the sounds of this. Looking forward to seeing what the next 72 hours bring! Loving the thread and many thanks to the knowledgeable folk on here.

PukkaStukka

What's the situation with those of us living smack on the north Dublin coast. Are we at risk of a cold rain event,??

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

12z Euro4 850 hpa temps Monday afternoon. This has snow written all over it.

Those temperatures are still very high up though (1520 m). It says nothing about the lowest levels. The good thing is they will be drier than of late on Monday, so hopefully will keep wbt below zero even if the dry bulb is a few degrees above.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Those temperatures are still very high up though (1520 m). It says nothing about the lowest levels. The good thing is they will be drier than of late on Monday, so hopefully will keep wbt below zero even if the dry bulb is a few degrees above.

Yes, hence we want the eastern incursion as deep as possible before hand. The height at 850 hpa will be decreasing as the front approaches as well...




Wrapping up the 12z model output

NMM high resolution

Meteorite58

A close look at the snow potential, an interesting commute on Tues morning!

Snow / Ice warning coming. Conditions could be treacherous on Tues morning as below freezing in many areas.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z . ATM according to the ECM looks like a weak front , Snow more then likely but amounts don't look huge.

Rougies

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM 12Z . ATM according to the ECM looks like a weak front , Snow more then likely but amounts don't look huge.

Doesn't look that far off the Arpege you posted above really. 1mm precip can be roughly converted to 1cm snow, so quite widespread 1-5cm

pad199207

I think this could possibly be my first ever frontal snow event to experience

JanuarySnowstor

As others have said for a lot of places it looks like it could be an all snow event. Historically most of our snow events came from showers so this could be quite notable. Also with uppers remaining low until Thursday it should lie for a couple of days on higher ground.
Long term hard to know where we are going other than looking Northwest rather than Easy
An easterly still remains elusive outside of the net weather rampers

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As others have said for a lot of places it looks like it could be an all snow event. Historically most of our snow events came from showers so this could be quite notable. Also with uppers remaining low until Thursday it should lie for a couple of days on higher ground.
Long term hard to know where we are going other than looking Northwest rather than Easy
An easterly still remains elusive outside of the net weather rampers

Could be very hit or miss in Cork overall but tomorrow might give us a better idea.

kod87

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As others have said for a lot of places it looks like it could be an all snow event. Historically most of our snow events came from showers so this could be quite notable. Also with uppers remaining low until Thursday it should lie for a couple of days on higher ground.
Long term hard to know where we are going other than looking Northwest rather than Easy
An easterly still remains elusive outside of the net weather rampers

I don't think it will be that notable tbh, we are talking about a weak front that gets weaker as it crosses the country. A widespread 1-3 cm's likely in midlands and inland eastern areas.

Will be nice to see some snow but nothing out of the ordinary really.

Kermit.de.frog

18z ICON model run coming out now. 36 hours in and a certain upgrade on it's previous run when we see the higher resolution. Cold air advected further west in line with the other high res models.

JanuarySnowstor

kod87 wrote: »

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As others have said for a lot of places it looks like it could be an all snow event. Historically most of our snow events came from showers so this could be quite notable. Also with uppers remaining low until Thursday it should lie for a couple of days on higher ground.
Long term hard to know where we are going other than looking Northwest rather than Easy
An easterly still remains elusive outside of the net weather rampers

I don't think it will be that notable tbh, we are talking about a weak front that gets weaker as it crosses the country. A widespread 1-3 cm's likely in midlands and inland eastern areas.

Will be nice to see some snow but nothing out of the ordinary really.

To be fair any snowfall in Ireland is out of the ordinary though I understand what you mean

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

I think this could possibly be my first ever frontal snow event to experience

There was a warm front in January 2010 that surely brought you snow before turning to rain just as it exited,it did here

I remember waking up to proper frontal snow in goatstown just up the toad from clonskeagh in either jan or February 1985
Quite a dumping
It was after probably a week of easterly or northeasterly snow shower trains in the Dublin area too
It shouldn’t be hard to find if Syran wants to search for it in the archives

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There was a warm front in January 2010 that surely brought you snow before turning to rain just as it exited,it did here

I remember waking up to proper frontal snow in goatstown just up the toad from clonskeagh in either jan or February 1985
Quite a dumping
It was after probably a week of easterly or northeasterly snow shower trains in the Dublin area too
It shouldn’t be hard to find if Syran wants to search for it in the archives

Is it this you're referring to on 12th/13th January?



Or the 20th January?



I will look for the 1985 one you're thinking of.