Irexit party yay or nay?

Twenty Grand

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

You seem to clutching at straws, even after her denial of any 2nd Ref.

The will leave in March 19, deal or no deal (as Noel Edmunds used to say). Time to wake up and smell the coffee maybe.

Any deal type agreement will be heavily in their favour i.e. free movement (sale) of goods across the EU, but not services, and certainly no free movement of people (which was the actual cause of brexit).

The only possibility for the remoaners, is that they may attempt a re-entry but at 2030 (at the very earliest), strengthened by the desire for the former-UK getting a hold again, of an independent free Alba (Scotland).

Then again who knows what the EU of 2030 will look like? Suspect there will be plenty of serious societal issues to deal with by then.

There will be no deal. Not a hope.

The UK will wake up to a brave new world on April Fool's day 2019. Interesting to see how they'll cope.

Already lost thousands of jobs. Many more to follow when they miss the agreement deadline at the end of October. Car manufacturers are already shifting production to other countries. Same with finance institutions.
Hundreds of researchers will have to leave after EU funding is cut.
Might get a United Ireland and independent Scotland into the mix too.

I'll be over buying cars when the pound collapses.

RobertKK

Irexit is an awful idea. We are all better working together and building on common interests to benefit all the people in Europe.
We gain nothing from Irexit.

Rhineshark

RobertKK wrote: »

Irexit is an awful idea. We are all better working together and building on common interests to benefit all the people in Europe.
We gain nothing from Irexit.

We don't. But the UK does. And given Kelly's connections and that so far the entire Irexit Freedom talking point set is cribbed directly from Leave.EU, I suspect that's the most important benefit they are seeing.

They are going to follow up with a continuation of the same sorts of lies and aspirational bull****tery to try fool the Irish ("fool the natives" as Kelly put it (he was talking about the EU doing the fooling ofc) into leaving and clinging onto the HMS Brexit as she slams into the iceberg of reality, reliant on whatever scraps it cares to toss to us. Or we can make a lovely trade deal with Trump ofc.

This is an entirely manufactured issue these guys are campaigning for and it translates so poorly to Ireland that they're barely even trying to (sure, aren't the Irish and English basically the same so the same arguments should work...). These guys are running as pro-trump, Ireland should cleave to the US (currently bonkers) and the UK (currently bonkers), ultranationalist of the rarrgh-furrinors variety Conservatism. Which is a style that is not particularly native to our country. I would not be particularly surprised if it was part of that lunatic Bannon's Fourth Wave (of ultranationalists and snake oil salesmen) that he is rather unsuccessfully trying to start across Europe. This is Farage with an Irish face this time as we didn't fall for Farage's own snowflakey mug in February.

Oh, and needless to say, they could not answer a single question regarding practicalities. Of course.

Things that concern me about this;
-These clowns are running for national and MEP positions. Now, I for one am going to pay a lot more attention to the EU elections and do not want Ireland's interests represented by IKIP. UKIP were a waste of money when it came to doing anything useful and an embarrassment in their carry-on.

-What sort of lies are allowed in referenda and elections. We all saw our own home grown type of factually plain untrue promises on posters in the last few referenda. And as we have seen people do fall for plain and obvious propaganda.

Mind you, I was heartened to note on the Journal comments that there were about four actual Irexiters (at least one of whom was a bit suspicious as to his actually being Irish and one was a Brexiter), and lots of people asking good questions. The Irexiters were mostly loud and abusive. One of them had to resort to a whine about why anyone cared about the economy, a mythical isolationist version of sovereignity was the only important thing. So there's that.

I may be too worried. But after the last couple of years, not sure I can be blamed for concern about this bull**** propaganda being shipped in.

LuckyLloyd

Where is the funding for this coming from? That’s the key question. I’ll confidently suggest that the answer to that underlines how little this nonsense has the interests of Ireland close to its heart.

stuff.hunter

Infini wrote: »

May denies it but there are call's for a 2nd vote as well as call's for a vote on the final deal if any. Realistically if the threat of a No Deal crystallises those calls could become demand's as the penny drops. Remember 48% did vote remain though and it could become increasingly bitter closer to D-Day.

As for this "new party" it's more or less gonna end up in the same bin as Renua. It won't take off here the conditions just dont allow it not to mention the EU despite the bailout thing still is popular.

my 5 cents about 2nd referendums: its happening in Ireland only ....

Hurrache

stuff.hunter wrote: »

my 5 cents about 2nd referendums: its happening in Ireland only ....

No it doesn't, unless we sneakily took over Denmark without telling them.

stuff.hunter

Hurrache wrote: »

No it doesn't, unless we sneakily took over Denmark without telling them.

my bad, never heard about it

EdgeCase

You realise most of the businesses that come in here with foreign direct investment do so to create their EU Headquarters.

If Ireland left the EU, it would be bye bye to the vast majority of that as it would be off to the Netherlands, Luxembourg or anyone else would would give them a tax deal.

We'd lose easy access to the continent for Irish goods and services. We'd lose access for people who want to move there or study there.

Ireland is an absolutely tiny country on the diplomatic stage and isn't even a member of NATO. So we would be bounced around for any trade deals.

Then you'd have to relaunch the IEP Irish Pound, a currency that has basically never been free floating. Prior to the European Exchanges Rates mechanism and the Euro it was pegged to GBP for all of its existence.

So basically we would be back to hanging onto our former master's apron strings and begging for crumbs again!

Is that what anyone actually wants ?!

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Where is the funding for this coming from? That’s the key question. I’ll confidently suggest that the answer to that underlines how little this nonsense has the interests of Ireland close to its heart.

This. It's hard to imagine any sentient person on this island who would think this is a good idea. Even the "Blood on the streets" type disaster capitalists would find slim enough pickings from such an omnishambles.

Lots of interests outside the EU on the other hand...

FreudianSlippers

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Bassett actually came across as being measured and reasonable in my opinion. No wailing about sovereignty or foreigners at all.

That said, his position is extremely weak. He argues that Ireland must follow Britain out due to the 2 nations' close ties. He has a point but senior British politicians have postured about wreaking economic havoc on Ireland not to mention how they would try to undermine Ireland's low corporation tax rate. Factor in the amount of US multinationals who need single market access and Ireland would likely turn into a third world country overnight.

His argument is, if you ignore how spectacularly awful Brexit has been thus far, logical. However, what he fails to articulate is that in order for what he suggests to actually be functional, Ireland would need to form an economic and taxation union with the UK; in effect, Ireland would need to "join" the UK. Whether there are arguments for there being merit to that idea aside, I don't believe there is any real appetite for that in Ireland.

EdgeCase

So, basically back to being a far flung region of the UK without any serious political power, being ignored by Westminster.

I'm sure some of the 19th century fanatics in the British government and some of the unionists would be delighted with that one.

Why does anyone think that an utterly dysfunctional, England centric government that can't even get it's head around Scottish devolution most of the time, would be good for Ireland ?!

We left the UK largely because the policies in Westminster were designed by England and for England and ran this place into the ground in the 19th century.

Had the UK ever been a fairly constructed, federal system, maybe history would have been very different but, it wasn't and it isn't.

We would be back to policies set by London for London.

Ukip / right wing Tory types would love if we supported them, lending them broadened legitimaticy. I can assure you though if Ireland then wanted to be a partner, rather than a subject or if it became a serious economic competitor within a partnership, we would be thrown under the bus.

You're dealing with English (British) nationalists not the friendly, progressive centrist politics or the 1990s that brought about the NI peace process. It's an aspect of UK politics that has never ever been great friends of Ireland.

Right now we are a problem, an obstruction to get around, not a partner.

oscarBravo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Tax-harmonisation (12.5% to 22%, and corporate flight towards mainland EU).

Direct taxation rates are not an EU competence. Why would we voluntarily almost double our corporation tax rate?

EdgeCase

oscarBravo wrote: »

Direct taxation rates are not an EU competence. Why would we voluntarily almost double our corporation tax rate?

Without the EU consumer market as a selling point, we could have 0% tax and we still wouldn't be very attractive. You'd have to entirely remake the Irish economy which could take decades and would result in massive emigration again.

The current Irish model is definitely overreliant on tax break driven FDI but at least we have the opportunity to transform the economy into something far more dynamic over the next few decades and globally, tax break economies are beginning to be knocked back into line. A future as some kind of free floating Atlantic tax haven isn't a very viable one as if it's not dealt with in an EU context it will be through the WTO and other mechanisms as more political pressure is coming on to reign in corporate tax avoidance around the globe.

Ireland is developing into an EU hub for all sorts of things at the moment and that's something that is sustainable long term. We are an English speaking, very dynamic, very socially progressive and attractive looking part of the EU that is extremely business friendly and well connected.

Being here is being in the EU and having access to the world's largest (in economic terms) consumer and business market and having access to a vast array of talent from a whole continent too.

Irexit would mean a short, sharp shock they we would probably never recover from.

prawnsambo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

You seem to clutching at straws, even after her denial of any 2nd Ref.

The will leave in March 19, deal or no deal (as Noel Edmunds used to say). Time to wake up and smell the coffee maybe.

Any deal type agreement will be heavily in their favour i.e. free movement (sale) of goods across the EU, but not services, and certainly no free movement of people (which was the actual cause of brexit).

The only possibility for the remoaners, is that they may attempt a re-entry but at 2030 (at the very earliest), strengthened by the desire for the former-UK getting a hold again, of an independent free Alba (Scotland).

Then again who knows what the EU of 2030 will look like? Suspect there will be plenty of serious societal issues to deal with by then.

So many things wrong here. Firstly it's 29th March. Secondly, You can't have goods moving across the EU without services. As Barnier said, a mobile phone is made up of between 20% - 40% services. You can't even move goods without services. Thirdly, whatever societal problems the EU may be facing in 2030, the UK will clearly suffer far worse.

FreudianSlippers

oscarBravo wrote: »

Direct taxation rates are not an EU competence. Why would we voluntarily almost double our corporation tax rate?

It's bordering on conspiracy theory that (somehow?) once the UK leaves the EU, there will be some fundamental change to EU policy to directly attack Ireland's CT policy. There is some serious underpants gnome thinking going on there tbh.

FreudianSlippers

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

[...] certainly no free movement of people (which was the actual cause of brexit).

Just a friendly reminder (for what seems like the billionth time) that this is nonsense. There is no such thing as "free movement of people" (in the manner that you and others seem to imply as to how it works) in the EU.

1) The UK (and Ireland) are not part of Schengen which allows for border-less travel between Member States;
2) All EU Citizens are entitled to reside in any Member State for a period of less than 3 months on the basis that they (a) are not entitled to claim social benefits (b) must follow all requirements of that MS regarding registration of their presence;
3) If an EU citizen wants to reside longer than 3 months in any MS they must prove that they have a job capable of providing income in excess of the minimum income for social welfare payments in that MS or must prove that they have sufficient funds and health insurance to ensure that they are not a burden on the MS.

EdgeCase

In terms of taxation, Ireland's not alone in the EU. We've a lot in common with the Netherlands, Luxembourg and several others who aren't just suddenly going to adopt French tax rates because the UK left...

The EU isn't France nor is it Germany. That's a very common misconception in the UK.

ancapailldorcha

EdgeCase wrote: »

The EU isn't France nor is it Germany. That's a very common misconception in the UK.

It's beyond stupid and objectively untrue. I went to a Brighton talk with Yanis Varoufakis once. A woman in the audience asked how the UK would escape the German dictatorship. This was just before the EU referendum as well so the answer was literally on the horizon.

knipex

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

That's true (currently) but what if these events occur within the next decade:

i) Tax-harmonisation (12.5% to 22%, and corporate flight towards mainland EU).
ii) Further exits from the EU (Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Greece or some of the V4).
iii) Continued mass-migration considering Ire may be the next 'destination of choice' for millions (once the UK offically leave), considering the current escalating issues with basic housing, health and infrastructure.

And what if we get hit by an asteroid.
Or we discover a method of generating unlimited clean renewable fuel, cheaply.
Or Santa Claus pays off the national debt.

stuff.hunter

for some reason I've got a feeling that only who will be laughing in a few years to come will be UK ....
even with 'hard' exit, they'll made separate deals with every member of EU, probably not a direct kind on govt level but on corporate with lower CT which will make them more attractive than e.g Ireland

EdgeCase wrote: »

Ireland is developing into an EU hub for all sorts of things at the moment and that's something that is sustainable long term. We are an English speaking, very dynamic, very socially progressive and attractive looking part of the EU that is extremely business friendly and well connected.

guess we're living in different countries, Ireland will never develop into any kind of EU hub, oh well, might happen when we'll get rid housing problem, massive social welfare payouts and corrupt politicians

EdgeCase wrote: »

Being here is being in the EU and having access to the world's largest (in economic terms) consumer and business market and having access to a vast array of talent from a whole continent too.

did you mean Americas and Asia by any chance?

EdgeCase wrote: »

Irexit would mean a short, sharp shock they we would probably never recover from.

pile of .... we'll suffer more than UK, hoping to be wrong

ancapailldorcha

stuff.hunter wrote: »

for some reason I've got a feeling that only who will be laughing in a few years to come will be UK ....
even with 'hard' exit, they'll made separate deals with every member of EU, probably not a direct kind on govt level but on corporate with lower CT which will make them more attractive than e.g Ireland

The UK can't do deals with separate EU states because the customs union precludes this. The UK will be much less attractive as a place of business than Ireland as it will have a much smaller market and will be vulnerable to EU tariffs.

stuff.hunter wrote: »

guess we're living in different countries, Ireland will never develop into any kind of EU hub, oh well, might happen when we'll get rid housing problem, massive social welfare payouts and corrupt politicians

Ireland is already an EU hub for Pharmaceuticals and services.

4068ac1elhodqr

prawnsambo wrote: »

So many things wrong here. Firstly it's 29th March. Secondly, You can't have goods moving across the EU without services. As Barnier said, a mobile phone is made up of between 20% - 40% services. You can't even move goods without services. Thirdly, whatever societal problems the EU may be facing in 2030, the UK will clearly suffer far worse.

Few things wrong here. Firstly 19 refers to 2019 not the 19th doh!.

A 'goods-only brexit' is exactly what the likely scenario will be, the UK can export denby tea cups across the EU but they cannot offer fiscal banking type services to Hans in Munich without jumping through an awful lot of hoops.

The last part is speculation, who's to say who will fair worse on the world stage.

stuff.hunter

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The UK can't do deals with separate EU states because the customs union precludes this. The UK will be much less attractive as a place of business than Ireland as it will have a much smaller market and will be vulnerable to EU tariffs.
Ireland is already an EU hub for Pharmaceuticals and services.

still not enough, every pharma in here is a part of foreign corporation and they can move as they wish and building countrys economy around one sector wont work.
and yes, we're a hub for all tax dodgers like FB, Google and Apple, good luck to us with that

prawnsambo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Few things wrong here. Firstly 19 refers to 2019 not the 19th doh!.

A 'goods-only brexit' is exactly what the likely scenario will be, the UK can export denby tea cups across the EU but they cannot offer fiscal banking type services to Hans in Munich without jumping through an awful lot of hoops.

The last part is speculation, who's to say who will fair worse on the world stage.

Well I'm sure you'll forgive me for mistaking the year for the day. Ambiguous at best.

Barnier has already stated that 'goods only' is technically and physically insane. The bureaucracy alone would cripple the country.

4068ac1elhodqr

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It's bordering on conspiracy theory that (somehow?) once the UK leaves the EU, there will be some fundamental change to EU policy to directly attack Ireland's CT policy...

Unless you're living under a rock, you'll be aware the European Commission (France-Germany in particular) have a hard-on for tax-harmonisation (CCCTB) across the eurozone.

FreudianSlippers

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Unless you're living under a rock, you'll be aware the European Commission (France-Germany in particular) have a hard-on for tax-harmonisation (CCCTB) across the eurozone.

...and unless you have no basic understanding of EU tax law, then you'll be aware that the CCCTB has absolutely nothing to do with tax rates in individual Member States.

So is it that you're purposely misrepresenting/skewing the facts or that you don't know what you're talking about?

ancapailldorcha

stuff.hunter wrote: »

still not enough, every pharma in here is a part of foreign corporation and they can move as they wish and building countrys economy around one sector wont work.
and yes, we're a hub for all tax dodgers like FB, Google and Apple, good luck to us with that

It's been working quite well for Ireland in the past few decades though.

stuff.hunter

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's been working quite well for Ireland in the past few decades though.

you mean pharma sector or tax dodgers?

ancapailldorcha

stuff.hunter wrote: »

you mean pharma sector or tax dodgers?

I mean the tech and pharma companies. The tax evasion thing is small fry compared to the amount of FDI they bring not to mention the huge amount of people they employ.

FreudianSlippers

stuff.hunter wrote: »

you mean pharma sector or tax dodgers?

Google, Facebook and Apple all pay tax in Ireland and are therefore not dodging any tax. So I can only take it you believe that these companies are manufacturing pharmacological products?