Irexit party yay or nay?

4068ac1elhodqr

listermint wrote: »

It's not unlikely.

I have friends of mine who literally want to see Brussels deconstructed. Their words.

They will even rant and rave about it on Facebook telling anyone who will listen how Russia is right and Russia is being oppressed by the EU .

That is irrational hatred.

The same people I keep telling them , look lads go live in Russia then come back to me. I do that to their face in the pub though. They rarely have anything to respond but on Facebook they just dump random links. I've stopped replying in virtual world.

Madness

They may just be the more eccentric 1%.

But the other 99% of folks that raise concerns are simply doing that, like someone peering over a Driver's shoulder and asking them to drive more carefully, and watch out for any amount of varables that could create an uneasy journey for all.

4068ac1elhodqr

oscarBravo wrote: »

Yeah, the "Turkish membership of the EU is imminent" bare-faced lie was used to good effect in the Brexit campaign, why not wheel it out here as well?

In 5yrs+ time might it not become even more of an aspiration than it is now? (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-eu-full-membership-european-union-commitment-president-a8274166.html) - for both the EU and Turkey.

Who knows, for sure.

Guess you option of 100% deniability is the safest bet and proper outlook to have, that it might never, never, ever happen.

Imreoir2

Rhineshark wrote: »

Yeah overall I agree. There is a prospect for muckstirring and he's connected to some good muckstirrers though. So I figure it's worth saying it if only to call attention to the EU elections. I think we're probably pretty innoculated against this particular brand of bull**** but we're not immune from more targeted bull****.

Also, if my theory is correct and it does fit what's there so far it's a bloody cheek.

The anti-EU line would certainly be a dead end for alt-right activists, but you are right there are other angles where they could make inroads. For example, this country has been very moderate on the politics of immigration front and immigration is not really a live issue here in the way it is in other parts of the anglosphere or indeed other parts of the EU. There is a risk that muckstirrers could make headway in this area if they were to target it in a coordinated way, though again focusing on a European election is not the way to do this given the mix of public support for the EU and public apathy to European elections as a political event.

Our political system is not really suited to getting issues like this to the fore,
Presidential elections: are a popularity contests, its never about the issues as there arnt really any relevant issues to fight over.
European elections: no one cares
Local elections: even the candidates hardily care never mind the electorate,and they have no power anyway.
Seanad: again no one cares and it is very hard to build a profile from the Seanad.
Dáil: certainly getting a TD elected would get an issue the required profile, but single issue politics have never really done very well in this country. I'm not sure alt-right populism is entirely compatible with the kind of parish pump politics the Dáil relys on. "Sure, immigrants are bad and climate change is a hoax Mr Candidate, but what about the potholes?"

oscarBravo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Who knows, for sure.

Who knows, indeed? We should probably make preparations for East Timor joining the EU too, because we can't rule it out.

listermint

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

In 5yrs+ time might it not become even more of an aspiration than it is now? (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-eu-full-membership-european-union-commitment-president-a8274166.html) - for both the EU and Turkey.

Who knows, for sure.

Guess you option of 100% deniability is the safest bet and proper outlook to have, that it might never, never, ever happen.

You know full well turkey is not getting into the EU .

If you don't know that then you are simply not in touch with world politics right now.

prawnsambo

oscarBravo wrote: »

Who knows, indeed? We should probably make preparations for East Timor joining the EU too, because we can't rule it out.

Why stop there? Russia anyone?

Imreoir2

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

add in Turkey's membership

Why not N. Koreas membership while we are at it, both are as likely in 5 years time.

4068ac1elhodqr

listermint wrote: »

You know full well turkey is not getting into the EU .

There you go folks it has 'offically been confirmed', that they will never have the opportunity in discuss this in 5, 10 or more years time. They don't even want to discuss the matter.



In fact Eastern Timor has a better chance! Lovely weather out there, it is.

SterlingArcher

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

One thing I really wanted to avoid saying because it would just be so facile, easy and obvious was that some people just hate the EU to the point where they'll prioritise that hatred over their own welfare and freedom. I thought that this was just an easy answer to a complex question and problem facing many European countries and the EU itself. However, given the lack of anything positive about Brexit, the fact that some people in Ireland think Ireland should leave makes this the only logical explanation.

I mean, look at the stuff demfad was posting over the last few years. I'll be honest and admit that I was dismissive and just waved my hand at times at what I thought was just a mere conspiracy theory. But as time goes on, we see that the Europhobic right is little more than a den of venality, sleaze, hatred and bigotry. It's like fire. It has no interest in helping or nourishing, only in destruction. They want to see the EU burn. Maybe they hate the idea of a united public, of countries working together, of their friends in the tabloid press losing money as the Eurocrats have no interest in being lobbied by them. Or maybe it's just that a tiny amount of very wealthy people stand to make bank at the expense of or even the death of the EU.

If someone has a better explanation, please do enlighten me. I have Irish friends who despise the EU and yet they can give me no alternative vision for a post-Irexit Ireland.

It is quite simple really. Immigration. It is plain and simple. You want to piss people off? You want to turn a few malcontents into a Brexit.

You refuse to discuss the elephant in the room.

So don't talk about it. Refuse to engage on the subject. So the only people that will talk about it are guess who? The very people that you do not want being the only ones talking about it.

4068ac1elhodqr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Why not N. Koreas membership while we are at it, both are as likely in 5 years time.

Yes NK in 5+yrs time are as likely.
Maybe cap them at <20yrs though.

Imreoir2

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

There you go folks it has 'offically been confirmed', that they will never have the opportunity in discuss this in 5, 10 or more years time. They don't even want to discuss the matter.



In fact Eastern Timor has a better chance! Lovely weather out there, it is.

And I want a toilet made out of solid gold, but its just not in the cards now is it?

Seth Brundle

SterlingArcher wrote: »

You refuse to discuss the elephant in the room.

Forgive me but as I'm not wearing my glasses but I can't see the elephant in the room. Can you please describe it to me?

prawnsambo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Yes NK in 5+yrs time are as likely.
Maybe cap them at <20yrs though.

You'd have to get Greece out first. Because Turkey will only join over Greece's dead body.



And that's outside the small issue of Turkey's dwindling democratic credentials.

listermint

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

There you go folks it has 'offically been confirmed', that they will never have the opportunity in discuss this in 5, 10 or more years time. They don't even want to discuss the matter.



In fact Eastern Timor has a better chance! Lovely weather out there, it is.

It's really evident then that you are clueless about world politics right now . Thanks for confirming.

I'd keep your money in your pocket on this one.

An Ciarraioch

SterlingArcher wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

One thing I really wanted to avoid saying because it would just be so facile, easy and obvious was that some people just hate the EU to the point where they'll prioritise that hatred over their own welfare and freedom. I thought that this was just an easy answer to a complex question and problem facing many European countries and the EU itself. However, given the lack of anything positive about Brexit, the fact that some people in Ireland think Ireland should leave makes this the only logical explanation.

I mean, look at the stuff demfad was posting over the last few years. I'll be honest and admit that I was dismissive and just waved my hand at times at what I thought was just a mere conspiracy theory. But as time goes on, we see that the Europhobic right is little more than a den of venality, sleaze, hatred and bigotry. It's like fire. It has no interest in helping or nourishing, only in destruction. They want to see the EU burn. Maybe they hate the idea of a united public, of countries working together, of their friends in the tabloid press losing money as the Eurocrats have no interest in being lobbied by them. Or maybe it's just that a tiny amount of very wealthy people stand to make bank at the expense of or even the death of the EU.

If someone has a better explanation, please do enlighten me. I have Irish friends who despise the EU and yet they can give me no alternative vision for a post-Irexit Ireland.

It is quite simple really. Immigration. It is plain and simple. You want to piss people off? You want to turn a few malcontents into a Brexit.

You refuse to discuss the elephant in the room.

So don't talk about it. Refuse to engage on the subject. So the only people that will talk about it are guess who? The very people that you do not want being the only ones talking about it.

Well, going by the CSO stats, the immigrants who arrived over the last 12 months are more qualified and educated than the general population (62% have third-level qualifications), and as the unemployment rate continues to fall, there's no evidence that Irish people are being denied jobs as a result. As for housing and health, the failures in both are down to historical government policies, and would remain regardless of immigration. In terms of integration, by and large new arrivals are playing active roles in their new communities, though of course, learning English, respecting local cultural values, etc, is already government policy.

KevinCavan

I’ll vote for a property party, a party that will build apartment blocks en masses and rezone swathes of land around cities for building.

4068ac1elhodqr

prawnsambo wrote: »

You'd have to get Greece out first. Because Turkey will only join over Greece's dead body.

And that's outside the small issue of Turkey's dwindling democratic credentials.

Greece was the fav to leave, up until last year, but Italy seem to have overtaken them now (available market for next to leave, below).

Indeed Turkey has very sketchy credentials, still with what's going on over in that region (at this very moment), perhaps it will be a case of 'your enemy's enemy is your good friend and buddy'?



Last year Italy was 3.75. There is an oddity of Denmark 100/1 or 19 (18/1), stange difference of odds. Ireland averages at position 7. Sweden upto 3rd place, a bit of a surprise compared to a few years ago.

Also of interest, is the chance of Ire Unity referendum <2021. Implies 25%.

ancapailldorcha

SterlingArcher wrote: »

It is quite simple really. Immigration. It is plain and simple. You want to piss people off? You want to turn a few malcontents into a Brexit.

You refuse to discuss the elephant in the room.

So don't talk about it. Refuse to engage on the subject. So the only people that will talk about it are guess who? The very people that you do not want being the only ones talking about it.

Immigration was a secondary concern according to the Ashcroft polls. I'm not refusing to discuss anything. I accept that there is a strong protest vote element to Brexit. However, given that it's yielded not a single benefit one can conclude that an Irexit is simply an utterly terrible idea.

oscarBravo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Indeed Turkey has very sketchy credentials, still with what's going on over in that region (at this very moment), perhaps it will be a case of 'your enemy's enemy is your good friend and buddy'?

"Perhaps", "who knows".

Were you planning to contribute anything other than wild conjecture and long-shot gambling odds to this political discussion?

4068ac1elhodqr

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Immigration was a secondary concern according to the Ashcroft polls. I'm not refusing to discuss anything. I accept that there is a strong protest vote element to Brexit. However, given that it's yielded not a single benefit one can conclude that an Irexit is simply an utterly terrible idea.

Yougov Poll late Summer '16 indicates it was the primary concern with 35% of those surveyed.



Brexit hasn't happened as of yet, so benefits (if any) are hard to discuss until a few years after the dust settles. Irexit would be a bad idea anytime within 5yrs, but who's to predict what the longer-term future may hold.

oscarBravo

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Irexit would be a bad idea anytime within 5yrs, but who's to predict what the longer-term future may hold.

Maybe we should hold off on discussing it seriously until there are some faint signs of it no longer being the stupidest idea in history?

BabyCheeses

Other than imagining alternative futures have the people proposing we leave the EU come up with some sort of plan? Brexit is highlighting that the whole we'll work it out later as the EU will do what we want thing isn't doing too well.

Nitrogan

There is already a couple of Irexit political groups. Sinn Fein are the largest Irish political party who want Ireland to leave the EU.

Unless they have they changed their position on that too?

It's hard to keep up with their re-brands.

An Ciarraioch

In 2014, we were a net contributor by precisely €100m - not sure what happened in the subsequent years, but hardly self-sustaining at that point!

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In 2014, we were a net contributor by precisely €100m - not sure what happened in the subsequent years, but hardly self-sustaining at that point!

Are you sure? I haven't totted up the totals in the map, but the graph to the right is per capita, so that's no indication of the total budget.

Rhineshark

Nitrogan wrote: »

There is already a couple of Irexit political groups. Sinn Fein are the largest Irish political party who want Ireland to leave the EU.

Unless they have they changed their position on that too?

It's hard to keep up with their re-brands.

More or less. The elements that wanted to leave have appeared to get a dose of reality to the face although there's a few like O'Snodaigh.

SF are quietly eurosceptic at the moment, but in a more normal European way - reform, not leave. The raging dislike in the UK was not euroscepticism, it was destructive only.

The UK was fairly unique in wanting to burn it all down. They just seem to keep thinking that if they want something, obviously everyone else does too.

Imreoir2

Nitrogan wrote: »

There is already a couple of Irexit political groups. Sinn Fein are the largest Irish political party who want Ireland to leave the EU.

Unless they have they changed their position on that too?

It's hard to keep up with their re-brands.

I don't think they wanted Ireland to leave the EU, they definatly dont now, they shifted away from Euroscepticisim prior to the Brexit referendum.

prawnsambo

Rhineshark wrote: »

More or less. The elements that wanted to leave have appeared to get a dose of reality to the face although there's a few like O'Snodaigh.

SF are quietly eurosceptic at the moment, but in a more normal European way - reform, not leave. The raging dislike in the UK was not euroscepticism, it was destructive only.

The UK was fairly unique in wanting to burn it all down. They just seem to keep thinking that if they want something, obviously everyone else does too.

I know this may seem as flippant in the context, but this reminded me of an episode of Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains why Britain joined the then 'Common Market'. It would be just pure comedy except for the fact that most of that series was a very well observed take on UK politics.

If the mods feel that this is inappropriate, apologies in advance, but I just felt that in many ways, it encapsulates the current situation from a point long in the past. We can go even further back to Charles de Gaulle's opposition to Britain joining as well of course.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE

Nitrogan

Sinn Fein wants Ireland to leave the EU.

The Irexit agenda is well represented in Irish politics, end of thread.

Rhineshark

prawnsambo wrote: »

I know this may seem as flippant in the context, but this reminded me of an episode of Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains why Britain joined the then 'Common Market'. It would be just pure comedy except for the fact that most of that series was a very well observed take on UK politics.

If the mods feel that this is inappropriate, apologies in advance, but I just felt that in many ways, it encapsulates the current situation from a point long in the past. We can go even further back to Charles de Gaulle's opposition to Britain joining as well of course.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE

Tbh, I agree with a lot of it! Satire holds up a mirror to reality and while it's distorted for humour etc, it's funny because either it's true or it's believable.

The current batch could easily fit into an updated Yes Minister show.