Irexit party yay or nay?

CrabRevolution

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Greece was the fav to leave, up until last year, but Italy seem to have overtaken them now (available market for next to leave, below).

Indeed Turkey has very sketchy credentials, still with what's going on over in that region (at this very moment), perhaps it will be a case of 'your enemy's enemy is your good friend and buddy'?



Last year Italy was 3.75. There is an oddity of Denmark 100/1 or 19 (18/1), stange difference of odds. Ireland averages at position 7. Sweden upto 3rd place, a bit of a surprise compared to a few years ago.

Also of interest, is the chance of Ire Unity referendum <2021. Implies 25%.

Your argument seems to be: "The 1% chance of Turkey joining the EU in the next few decades or of the EU removing our tax powers is too much of a risk. Therefore just to be on the safe side we should take a course of action which has a 100% chance of destroying our economy"

ArmaniJeanss

Vera Unsightly Bellows wrote: »

Greece was the fav to leave, up until last year, but Italy seem to have overtaken them now (available market for next to leave, below).

Last year Italy was 3.75. There is an oddity of Denmark 100/1 or 19 (18/1), stange difference of odds. Ireland averages at position 7. Sweden upto 3rd place, a bit of a surprise compared to a few years ago.

Also of interest, is the chance of Ire Unity referendum <2021. Implies 25%.

Sorry but all these odds are unreliable as it's not a complete market.
The next-to-leave market needs a 'none-to-leave' option and a time frame (even 10 or 20 years would be ok), and then the price of the individual countries would lengthen to more accurate odds.
And you say the odds imply a 25% chance of an Irish Unity referendum by e-o-y 2021. They don't because again its not a proper market where a bookie offers odds on the event Not occurring. If the bookie was going 1/5 No, 3/1 Yes then we could extrapolate a percentage chance - but when the bookie only quotes one side then it indicates pretty little.
You've enough posts on betting on boards.ie to indicate that you actually know all this already. So why put up posts like this here.

dublinman1990

I was just looking at the first pictures of the Irexit Freedom Party meeting from Nuacht RTÉ. It was the top story for today's bulletin showing big huge green Irexit wall posters being present while Ray Kinsella was making an address in front of the attendees. It appears to be quite a sizeable crowd for it's first AGM at it's venue in Whitehall. Apparently they were expecting a crowd of 300 people although with the size of the room at play; it could have the capacity to bring in more than that if people wanted to go this meeting purely to waste time about why an Irexit should happen from the EU.

An Ciarraioch

By their company shall you know them:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GenIdentityIrl

Rhineshark

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

By their company shall you know them:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GenIdentityIrl

They seem like a lovely shower.

And yep, all the usual boxes.


"@Campaignforleo
calls this "sharing the burden". We must invite a plague of cut-throats to descend on us "to show solidarity". And then, after each ignoble death at the hands of a 4th-world Diversity-savage, Leo will warn us of "right-wing extremism".
#MerkelMania"

I think whoever wrote that swallowed their dogwhistle.

hill16bhoy

I expect they already have a ton of anonymous sock puppet Twitter accounts invoking 1916 and "For what died the sons of Roisin" and loads and loads of Celtic mysticism.

Which is ironic for something which is so clearly a sleeper UKIP operation run by and for the benefit of backward-looking Englishmen who bitterly lament the loss of empire.

Kermit.de.frog

We shouldn't overlook the fact that we will need to defend our interests in the EU.

Blind loyalty would be just as bad as Irexit.

Infini

hill16bhoy wrote: »

I expect they already have a ton of anonymous sock puppet Twitter accounts invoking 1916 and "For what died the sons of Roisin" and loads and loads of Celtic mysticism.

Which is ironic for something which is so clearly a sleeper UKIP operation run by and for the benefit of backward-looking Englishmen who bitterly lament the loss of empire.

I'll be honest they reek of being an English Front operation for the Brexiteers. They cant simply ruin their own country they want to try and ruin ours. Difference is we dont have the same weaknesses in our system as the UK. Sure they in theory could gain some traction but even under ideal circumstances it wouldnt be overwhelming.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We shouldn't overlook the fact that we will need to defend our interests in the EU.

Blind loyalty would be just as bad as Irexit.

While we should, and obviously do promote our our interests in the EU, even blind loyalty to the EU would be drasticly better than Irexit.

ancapailldorcha

Imreoir2 wrote: »

While we should, and obviously do promote our our interests in the EU, even blind loyalty to the EU would be drasticly better than Irexit.

I think that the Irish diplomatic team in the EU have just had some excellent practice in getting themselves heard. Traditionally, they'd just cede this to the British but now they'll have to stand up for themselves. Given their achievements, I'm not too worried.

WomanSkirtFan8

Imreoir2 wrote: »

While we should, and obviously do promote our our interests in the EU, even blind loyalty to the EU would be drasticly better than Irexit.

absolutely without question. I can't see this lot gaining any significant ground sufficiently enough to mount a serious threat to our membership of the EU. I think they're probably more a worry than a major concern. :rolleyes:

Rhineshark

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

absolutely without question. I can't see this lot gaining any significant ground sufficiently enough to mount a serious threat to our membership of the EU. I think they're probably more a worry than a major concern. :rolleyes:

Even so, we need to be interested in the EU elections next year and be sure to vote for sane representation, especially while Ireland/EU relations are so important. Our system of voting make it harder for them to gain a UKIP type bloc there but the most basic way to keep them safely out of important jobs is to vote.

ancapailldorcha

No more puns please. Post deleted.

WomanSkirtFan8

Rhineshark wrote: »

Even so, we need to be interested in the EU elections next year and be sure to vote for sane representation, especially while Ireland/EU relations are so important. Our system of voting make it harder for them to gain a UKIP type bloc there but the most basic way to keep them safely out of important jobs is to vote.

Agreed

Iodine1

All fine and logical, no worry then so? However when the lies and mis-information starts it is amazing the momentum it will gather. Rem Brexit and all the money saved will go to the NHS solving all their problems. We'll save loads and of course build all the houses needed to end homelessness. Etc Etc Etc. And the eu regulations are stopping this that and the other from planning houses and environmental impact surveys to cutting turf. It'll be great altogether. Already we are almost promised a united Ireland. So it cannot be ignored.

An Ciarraioch

I would say, however, that in the last few years, we've already had the National Party and Identity Ireland on that end of the political spectrum, so all three are fishing out of a relatively small vote pool.

ArmaniJeanss

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I would say, however, that in the last few years, we've already had the National Party and Identity Ireland on that end of the political spectrum, so all three are fishing out of a relatively small vote pool.

They were pretty much nonsense parties operating out of a shed.

I think the most relevant comparison might be Libertas who, at the height of the economic crisis threw an absolute fortune (US money?) at the 2009 European Elections here on a similar sort of anti-EU, anti-immigrant platform. Got themselves lots of media/airtime and Declan Ganley just missed a seat in the North West constituency with 14% of first preferences. Their other candidates fared poorly though, 3% in Dublin and 4% in Leinster.
That was pretty much the perfect time for them to run so the fact they failed then would make me confident they'll do no better now.

Anthracite

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

They were pretty much nonsense parties operating out of a shed.

I think the most relevant comparison might be Libertas who, at the height of the economic crisis threw an absolute fortune (US money?) at the 2009 European Elections here on a similar sort of anti-EU, anti-immigrant platform. Got themselves lots of media/airtime and Declan Ganley just missed a seat in the North West constituency with 14% of first preferences. Their other candidates fared poorly though, 3% in Dublin and 4% in Leinster.
That was pretty much the perfect time for them to run so the fact they failed then would make me confident they'll do no better now.

I read something recently suggesting a Russian connection with Libertas.

Loafing Oaf

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

They were pretty much nonsense parties operating out of a shed.

I think the most relevant comparison might be Libertas who, at the height of the economic crisis threw an absolute fortune (US money?) at the 2009 European Elections here on a similar sort of anti-EU, anti-immigrant platform. Got themselves lots of media/airtime and Declan Ganley just missed a seat in the North West constituency with 14% of first preferences. Their other candidates fared poorly though, 3% in Dublin and 4% in Leinster.
That was pretty much the perfect time for them to run so the fact they failed then would make me confident they'll do no better now.

Plus it was round the time of the re-run of the Lisbon referendum, so anti-EU feeling in Ireland was probably peaking. I remember Caroline Simons's head taking up the advertising hoarding at the end of my road in Dublin for weeks in the run-up to those Euro elections, so there was clearly big money behind Libertas. And as you suggest, whatever support they attracted was probably due more to Ganley's high personal profile than anything more profound...

demfad

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I would say, however, that in the last few years, we've already had the National Party and Identity Ireland on that end of the political spectrum, so all three are fishing out of a relatively small vote pool.

This party is more significant in that Russia is/will be backing it.

The only big International News Network to cover this tiny opening was RT. Indeed they sent reporters on to Dublin streets last week BEFORE it was even news in Ireland.

Behind them you will have Russia's propaganda machine and the Mercer/Bannon propaganda machine. Russia back's certain anti-EU parties in many EU countries. As am English speaking country we will be vulnerable to the full assault.
Expect disinformation to start ratcheting up after Brexit. The goal here is to weaken the EU and a secondary goal is instability in the target country.

Edit: Link

https://www.rt.com/news/437964-ireland-irexit-freedom-party/

Rhineshark

demfad wrote: »

This party is more significant in that Russia is/will be backing it.

The only big International News Network to cover this tiny opening was RT. Indeed they sent reporters on to Dublin streets last week BEFORE it was even news in Ireland.

Behind them you will have Russia's propaganda machine and the Mercer/Bannon propaganda machine. Russia back's certain anti-EU parties in many EU countries. As am English speaking country we will be vulnerable to the full assault.
Expect disinformation to start ratcheting up after Brexit. The goal here is to weaken the EU and a secondary goal is instability in the target country.

It's something we need to be bearing in mind, yeah. And making a "get out the vote" next year.

To some extent, we're forewarned at least. Its now up to the Irish people as to whether it will work or not.

mcmoustache

demfad wrote: »

This party is more significant in that Russia is/will be backing it.

The only big International News Network to cover this tiny opening was RT. Indeed they sent reporters on to Dublin streets last week BEFORE it was even news in Ireland.

Behind them you will have Russia's propaganda machine and the Mercer/Bannon propaganda machine. Russia back's certain anti-EU parties in many EU countries. As am English speaking country we will be vulnerable to the full assault.
Expect disinformation to start ratcheting up after Brexit. The goal here is to weaken the EU and a secondary goal is instability in the target country.

I wonder what the IRA (no, not our IRA) troll twitter profiles will look like? A common one in the US was hot generic blonde with an American flag and references to God and family. I don't even know what our equivalent of that would be.

mcmoustache

Rhineshark wrote: »

It's something we need to be bearing in mind, yeah. And making a "get out the vote" next year.

To some extent, we're forewarned at least. Its now up to the Irish people as to whether it will work or not.

I would be quite surprised if it would work. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Russians had enough information on US culture to come up with plausible profiles. The US is also so big that people interact with people that they'd never expect to see in meatspace.

Ireland on the other hand is very small. It's small enough that you'd recognise people or know someone who has met others. We also recognise places fairly well so it should be easy enough to spot trolls and their amplification by bots, at least it should be for those who are suspicious enough. People who want to believe that all those profiles are genuine Irish people who want to leave the EU will probably want to believe. My hope is that they will be drowned out by corrections.

demfad

mcmoustache wrote: »

I wonder what the IRA (no, not our IRA) troll twitter profiles will look like? A common one in the US was hot generic blonde with an American flag and references to God and family. I don't even know what our equivalent of that would be.

https://twitter.com/sn0wball11

Loafing Oaf

mcmoustache wrote: »

meatspace.

Thanks for that addition to my vocabulary.;)

demfad

mcmoustache wrote: »

I would be quite surprised if it would work. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Russians had enough information on US culture to come up with plausible profiles. The US is also so big that people interact with people that they'd never expect to see in meatspace.

Ireland on the other hand is very small. It's small enough that you'd recognise people or know someone who has met others. We also recognise places fairly well so it should be easy enough to spot trolls and their amplification by bots, at least it should be for those who are suspicious enough. People who want to believe that all those profiles are genuine Irish people who want to leave the EU will probably want to believe. My hope is that they will be drowned out by corrections.

Yes, but now there is a political party whose coverage will be blown out of all proportion. Stories about immigrants will be exagerated. Anti-EU rhetoric will slolwy start to be added. And when any incident involving someone who is not white Irish it will be attributed to a non-existent immigration problem.
That's just one angle. People form their opinions on what they see and here.
The Russians have interfered with almost 28 countries now big and small.
IMO they did a lot of research during the repeal of the 8th amendment campaign.
The group SCL (similar to what was used in Brexit and Trump) has messed in 95 countries. I am sure they have social media profile data by now.
I don't think people are ready for what might be coming. I don't think are media remotely are.

mcmoustache

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Thanks for that addition to my vocabulary.;)

That's an oldie from the internet of the 90's. Are the kids using something else now? I've seen "irl" (in real life) and "outside" but those aren't great.

Loafing Oaf

mcmoustache wrote: »

That's an oldie from the internet of the 90's. Are the kids using something else now? I've seen "irl" (in real life) and "outside" but those aren't great.

I twigged what it mean even without looking it up, which is always a good sign for a neologism. Or an oldologism...The other two I would probably pass over without noticing.

mcmoustache

demfad wrote: »

Yes, but now there is a political party whose coverage will be blown out of all proportion. Stories about immigrants will be exagerated. Anti-EU rhetoric will slolwy start to be added. And when any incident involving someone who is not white Irish it will be attributed to a non-existent immigration problem.
That's just one angle. People form their opinions on what they see and here.
The Russians have interfered with almost 28 countries now big and small.
IMO they did a lot of research during the repeal of the 8th amendment campaign.
The group SCL (similar to what was used in Brexit and Trump) has messed in 95 countries. I am sure they have social media profile data by now.
I don't think people are ready for what might be coming. I don't think are media remotely are.

OK. When you put it like that, it's a concerning picture and none of that information is new to me. I had sort of forgotten about SCL/Emerdata and what they actually did. I still think they'll have a tough time given current polling but this can go on for years.

I guess that what we can expect to see is amplification of every immigrant crime on places like facebook and twitter and then seeing them pop up here too.


I had a look at that twitter profile. It just looks like part of a retweet network promoting Russian propaganda mixed with some Katie Hopkins and other assorted Brexit bots/trolls. 128 thousand retweets at that over 8 years. That's nearly 50 a day if we assume that the account was never dormant/inactive. And it's a troll, not a bot account. It was a Qanon troll back in January with the red X and all. Christ, that was an interesting rabbit hole.

OK, so I guess the profile archetype is going to be Irish nationalism, 1916 and conservative Catholicism. Thanks for the example there, demfad. I hadn't seen the trolls with an Irish spin as yet.

Rhineshark

mcmoustache wrote: »

OK. When you put it like that, it's a concerning picture and none of that information is new to me. I had sort of forgotten about SCL/Emerdata and what they actually did. I still think they'll have a tough time given current polling but this can go on for years.

I guess that what we can expect to see is amplification of every immigrant crime on places like facebook and twitter and then seeing them pop up here too.


I had a look at that twitter profile. It just looks like part of a retweet network promoting Russian propaganda mixed with some Katie Hopkins and other assorted Brexit bots/trolls. 128 thousand retweets at that over 8 years. That's nearly 50 a day if we assume that the account was never dormant/inactive. And it's a troll, not a bot account. It was a Qanon troll back in January with the red X and all. Christ, that was an interesting rabbit hole.

OK, so I guess the profile archetype is going to be Irish nationalism, 1916 and conservative Catholicism. Thanks for the example there, demfad. I hadn't seen the trolls with an Irish spin as yet.

I've seen a few already, although they generally reveal themselves as clumsy UKIPpers. Watch out for them arguing that we should rejoin the UK and/or Commonwealth (mostly UK) too.

The I Can't Believe It's Not IKIP ones tend to argue 1) if you vote the wrong way, the EU will force you to do it again (because Irish people are thick), 2) rejoin the UK and 3) rargh Troika evil EU forcing austerity but UK bailed you-I-mean-us out, with fairly poor understanding of what happened.

Edit: might be worth noting that "Irish" social media accounts saying dodgy stuff from about 2014 onwards may be another hint. 2014 was when whatever Russia influencing we had in Ireland kicked up a gear going by the Gardai comments about it all in the spring.

Then again, might be a red herring.