Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

ninebeanrows

HIRLAM looks interesting before the clearance..

Kermit.de.frog

EDIT: Weathercheck beat me to it. lol though.

JanuarySnowstor

Reports of very bad ice coming in now for parts of cork......see cork safety alerts for more detail

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

EDIT: Weathercheck beat me to it. lol though.

Yes but will it stick? That’s the question.

Soccarboy11

Cork Airport reporting temps of -1, my car is reporting -3. Pretty cold tonight!

Soccarboy11

Latest ME update

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/962809345225494528

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes but will it stick? That’s the question.

I don't see why not. Temperatures are progged at freezing during snowfall on all models at the moment so wet or not, some intensity, it would stick quite quickly i'd have thought.

Gonzo

if the snow is heavy enough tomorrow it will definitely stick.

The rain-snow-rain event we had one night in late December was a mostly wet event, but we had about 45 minutes of snowfall in the middle of it and it still stuck before getting washed away again when it turned back to rain.

Villain

Weathercheck wrote: »

HIRLAM looks interesting before the clearance..

Harmonie is rather different sadly.

Kermit.de.frog

Be interesting to see Euro4 this evening. Both ICON and HIRLAM (GFS to a certain extent) have some intensity to the snowfall tomorrow night so we could be looking at some level of disruption Tuesday morning for the rush hour commute.

Happygosad33

Rougies wrote: »

ECM snow depth for 6am Tuesday morning. Pretty inline with Met Eireann's advisory. Not sure if their Harmonie model is in range of this yet.

Might take a spin to Donegal if that chart is to be believed.

Snowbiee21

I know Monday is the primary focus but how’s Tuesday looking lads

Mullaghteelin

Dublin Airport reporting -1C with 15knts of wind. Casement similar.
It feels really nasty outside

Soccarboy11

roads and footpaths in my estate are already sparkling and glistening in the light. If it snows again not only will it stick, but the morning will be deadly.

Jimbob1977

Thick snowflakes in Limerick now.

Temperature is 0c

Snowbiee21

Going by the hirlam Dublin could be in for very heavy snow

catrat12

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Going by the hirlam Dublin could be in for very heavy snow

When?

Snowbiee21

catrat12 wrote: »

When?

Early Tuesday morning

Kermit.de.frog

WRF NMM (2 km resolution) going for a sharp transition from rain to snow...



Temperature gradient

MJohnston

Kermit, there's a nice "Irlande" button on Meteociel for the WRF model, gives you a better view

Meteorite58

Yes here it is http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=334

You can set the image per second to a lower speed, this is 1 per second ....

Looks like a late night tomorrow night

MJohnston

I updated the above as the full 36h frames became available, but here are some other relevant charts from the WRF, it's going to be a wild night and quite easy to spot the transition:



Rather sharp drop in the temps as it progresses too:

Kermit.de.frog

I think we can put Euro4 down as "inconclusive" - messy.

pauldry

Yes tomorrow night looks like the peak of this spell

Bbc promising mild from Wednesday 8 and 9c for 3 or 4 days at least

q85dw7osi4lebg

Untreated roads fairly bad here in East Meath. Earlier snow has frozen.

Kermit.de.frog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Looks like a late night tomorrow night

I'm not staying up till 5 am for an hour of snow :pac: Have to work too. If it was a weekend maybe.

It may be more worthwhile in the end - not a done deal yet.

Soccarboy11

looks like a snow shower is about to arrive in cork city. Ontop of the frozen roads already, I see this sticking (if it actually falls and netweather isnt glitching!)

Also interesting how Cork Airport is reporting the coldest temps (according to this site anyway http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/ireland.php?icao=EICK ) I thought that would have been the west/northwest? (from my limited non-knowledge lol)

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think we can put Euro4 down as "inconclusive" - messy.

I think "messy" is a good conclusion.

MJohnston

It's worth mentioning that AROME, ARPEGE, and arguably the ECM are not really biting on this Monday overnight precip turning into snow. ARPEGE has been a good performer in my experience this winter, so this could just be a significant rainfall and nothing more.

kerrycork13

Shower activity has stopped completely here now -1 and freezing hard. No signs of any showers in the next while anyway. If it snows again before dawn or shortly after the roads WI be tricky for commutes. Just a nice dusting on the roads with a centimetre or two on grass and footpaths. East kerry border with cork. 150 asl