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Rents to rise to 2500 a month in Dublin
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I’m not sure that’s even possible unless you’re going to have everyone sharing houses, as there’s no way a typical family could afford that per month for accommodation.
It’s getting to the stage that moving elsewhere in Ireland or emigrating is looking like an attractive option again. Dublin’s OK, but it’s not that great that I’d pay that % of disposable income for accommodation or live in a dump.
I know two people who’ve quit jobs in Cork and moved back to continental Europe because the accomodation’s so bad here.
Ultimately, I fear that if we don’t get this housing crisis under control ASAP, it will choke off economic growth entirely and certainly stifle any opportunites to expand the economy beyond where it is now.
Effectively this is an infrastructure bottleneck.0 -
So what are their mortgage payments, and how many more years to pay? And what would their rent be if they hadn't bought?
Personally, having worked out the numbers, I would have been far better off buying as soon as I had a job. Even if I'd have bought a 1 bed apartment I'd be far better off than I am now.
I don't regret our purchase. I'd be far more stressed knowing the LL could kick us out and I'd have to go looking for somewhere in this climate. There was value about 6 months ago too. Now not so sure.0 -
It is my considered opinion as a person who fcucked this up and waited too long, that you get on the property later as fast as you possibly can when you start earning. Even if it's a one bed apartment it will do you for some time and you won't get fcucked by rising rents.
When it's time to trade up you will have a good chunk of it paid off and it you are lucky will meet a partner who had done the same thing.
Thats great, until you buy a 1 bed apartment with no car parking space in the city center for 300k and then the equivalent of the 2007 property bust arrives and leaves you with 50%+ negative equity on a property you only ever intended to live in for 6-12 months and sell on for a healthy profit after installing some wood flooring and painting the walls.
Thats the investment game and you take your chances. If you want somewhere to live, then buy somewhere to live, that will be comfortable for the long run. Forget about ladders unless you're an investor.
if you cant afford to live where you most desire, you make compromises. We would all love a semi-D in Terenure but thats not going to happen for most of us, so we move further out or to less desirable areas and make the most of it.
Owning a property is not a right, and not everybody has the means to. does that suck, yes, but thats not going to change any time soon.
Many Irish people are also unwilling to compromise. I know people who have been looking for a property for 2+ years and who refuse to look at property outside of D4/8/16 but cant find anything affordable. They will not own a property without compromising on postcode. thats their choice, but they should own that choice, rather than blaming governments, the market, people who earn more than them etc etc. This is story is common in Dublin as far as i can see.0 -
KellyXX wrote:So what are their mortgage payments, and how many more years to pay? And what would their rent be if they hadn't bought?
As I and others have tried to point out, its our overall thinking of housing and debt that has us in this situation, it's not working, and in fact it's getting worse overtime for all.0 -
Wanderer78 wrote: »I think this thinking is madness, even though I understand your logic. We seriously need to ditch this whole idea of ladders etc, as it generally just all turns into snakes eventually, people need homes, period, our thinking is arse ways about this. Our current debt burden is already unsustainable, we have to stop this madness. I was starting to consider purchasing at the height of the boom, thank bloody god I didn't, what a scam.
You are right in theory but wrong in practice. People who bought in the boom may have negative equity but they have tracker mortgages.0 -
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Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:You are right in theory but wrong in practice. People who bought in the boom may have negative equity but they have tracker mortgages.
I can understand the thinking behind these kind of statements but if you look at the wider picture, it actually isn't working at all, this is very evident for younger generations. Our whole economic thinking is based on us accumulating debt, it drives our economies, but it in fact is failing in the long run, some believing, including myself, that we must now address this or face a very unsure future.0 -
Wanderer78 wrote: »I can understand the thinking behind these kind of statements but if you look at the wider picture, it actually isn't working at all, this is very evident for younger generations. Our whole economic thinking is based on us accumulating debt, it drives our economies, but it in fact is failing in the long run, some believing, including myself, that we must now address this or face a very unsure future.
You're not really suggesting an alternative, just constantly repeating that "the system is broken", I'm happy to hear how we address the issue.
I for one think housing debt is an inevitability & with low interest rates a real positive as long as people go into it with their eyes open. On a fixed rate mortgage you're insulating yourself against inflation, rents go up, your mortgage won't. Salaries go up, your mortgage doesn't.
It's not this evil capitalist scheme you seem to keep going on about, it's a company providing a service for many many people who require said service.0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »You're not really suggesting an alternative, just constantly repeating that "the system is broken", I'm happy to hear how we address the issue.
I for one think housing debt is an inevitability & with low interest rates a real positive as long as people go into it with their eyes open. On a fixed rate mortgage you're insulating yourself against inflation, rents go up, your mortgage won't. Salaries go up, your mortgage doesn't.
It's not this evil capitalist scheme you seem to keep going on about, it's a company providing a service for many many people who require said service.
I agree that housing debt is part of the game but there is a point where it trips into the unreasonable area. People are about to overstretch themselves yet again because they don't have a choice, it's either renting or buying. The truth is that nobody who takes out a mortgage today knows how secure their job really is in 15 years time, thinking of more jobs being replaced by machines/outsourcing.
Another bitter taste is that it encourages bad planning, while there's so much land that can be planned a lot better with an outlook in the future, the Semi-D's make more money, so that's what's being built.
Dublin, Cork and Galway don't have the capacity to let companies expand and attract skilled workforce from abroad, yet it's still happening and oil is happily being poured into the fire.
Housing debt is all well and fine but the current housing debt creates a whole lot of infrastructure problems without solving anything.0 -
I agree that housing debt is part of the game but there is a point where it trips into the unreasonable area. People are about to overstretch themselves yet again because they don't have a choice, it's either renting or buying. The truth is that nobody who takes out a mortgage today knows how secure their job really is in 15 years time, thinking of more jobs being replaced by machines/outsourcing.
Another bitter taste is that it encourages bad planning, while there's so much land that can be planned a lot better with an outlook in the future, the Semi-D's make more money, so that's what's being built.
Dublin, Cork and Galway don't have the capacity to let companies expand and attract skilled workforce from abroad, yet it's still happening and oil is happily being poured into the fire.
Housing debt is all well and fine but the current housing debt creates a whole lot of infrastructure problems without solving anything.
Yes of course, I agree that we shouldn't overstretch ourselves, to be fair I think 3.5x earnings is a relatively good number. This in mind I'm surprised house prices have hit the heights they have, but fundamentally as long as people are staying in or around that multiple they should be ok. And definitely you're right re: job/career security, I work in finance and am fairly aware the goalposts are moving so I'm upskilling on the IT side to ensure I'm not behind the curve in future.
Your point regarding 3 bed semis etc isn't a debt related issue, people will want them whether they pay in cash, debt or smarties, it's a planning issue, rather than Dublin councils pushing for more 3 bed semis, they should push for more 3 bed apartments & build upwards (an issue that I've debated ad nauseum in the property 2018 thread) if builders & buyers are given a choice, they'll build out not up.0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »
Your point regarding 3 bed semis etc isn't a debt related issue, people will want them whether they pay in cash, debt or smarties, it's a planning issue, rather than Dublin councils pushing for more 3 bed semis, they should push for more 3 bed apartments & build upwards (an issue that I've debated ad nauseum in the property 2018 thread) if builders & buyers are given a choice, they'll build out not up.
And that's where I think the governments need to step in: As dickish as it sounds, people want 3bed semis, I'd say tough sh1t, buy what's there or buy a nicely laid out new 3 bed apartment. The view on having a house with a garden is not sustainable anymore, you can turn and twist it but it's not. Even if that's not what people want, there are countless cities out there where official bodies implied a building stop and you'd never get away with building developments the way it's happening here.
It can be carried on that way and there will never be enough accommodation or you are open for radical changes and finally arrive in the 21st century and build a city the way it should be built.
Even Irish people are able to adjust to changes, they could take it, no worries.0 -
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And that's where I think the governments need to step in: As dickish as it sounds, people want 3bed semis, I'd say tough sh1t, buy what's there or buy a nicely laid out new 3 bed apartment. The view on having a house with a garden is not sustainable anymore, you can turn and twist it but it's not. Even if that's not what people want, there are countless cities out there where official bodies implied a building stop and you'd never get away with building developments the way it's happening here.
It can be carried on that way and there will never be enough accommodation or you are open for radical changes and finally arrive in the 21st century and build a city the way it should be built.
Even Irish people are able to adjust to changes, they could take it, no worries.
I completely agree, we won't build up en masse without being forced to. Funnily enough there seems more will to build upwards in the general public than there is in government buildings & council offices, there lies the issue.0 -
Don't forget, NIMBY is going strong and well, because everything that's higher than like 2 metres is getting rejected from locals and they'll kick up a stink. Maybe growing up in high density areas make me somewhat immune that this would bother me.
Wasn't there a thing in Portrane a while ago where locals objected a building 3 or 4 storeys high?
I know plenty of people saying there should be building up but they'd go mental if it would be remotely in their neighbourhood. Copping on would be a thing.0 -
Don't forget, NIMBY is going strong and well, because everything that's higher than like 2 metres is getting rejected from locals and they'll kick up a stink. Maybe growing up in high density areas make me somewhat immune that this would bother me.
Wasn't there a thing in Portrane a while ago where locals objected a building 3 or 4 storeys high?
I know plenty of people saying there should be building up but they'd go mental if it would be remotely in their neighbourhood. Copping on would be a thing.
To be honest I do think the 7 story limit should be maintained outside of the Dublin canals for the moment. We need high density where we have infrastructure (in 2018 this is sadly just Dublin cc) if we throw up tonnes of 20 story blocks in suburbs that can't accommodate them it'll stress the existing infrastructure & create further traffic & potential social issues.0 -
My father lives in a 7 storey block in a 2bed (77 sqm) apartment. There are 4 units on each floor, 2 and 3 bedrooms. Including ground floor, there are 32 units in the block and that's in an area where you'd have 3 blocks bundled with green areas and one parking spot outside for each unit plus a bit of play for visitors. They also all have a storage space in the basement, individual units that can be locked up.
That is absolutely reasonable and pretty well planned. While it seems quite high, it's not that bad really. It's a pretty effective way to house people and since the apartments are built pretty well with concrete storeys you have little problems with noise. Just saying, 7 storeys is loads to house people comfortably and effectively. You can even do 5 and it'll be fine.0 -
strandsman wrote: »I can't understand why some IT professionals or other who can work mostly from home don't move out to the midlands and pay rent of 600pm or purchase for 100K . Even if a person had to commute to Dublin for 1-2 days a week how bad? Take Cashel for example, 700pm rent and 90 mins from Dublin/Cork/Limerick/Galway. Why do people go through with the missery of 600K mortgage, 2K rent, Traffic congestion etc etc.
As I work in I.T. just thought I'd give my two cents on this. The company I work for has a few employees working remotely and I myself have worked remotely during sickness/emergencies. I asked them if I could move solely to remote work as they already have people doing it, I even offered to come 1-2 x per week which these people don't do as they live in different countries where the cost of living is much cheaper as I'm struggling to live in Dublin paying 40% of my salary in rent alone and having to move frequently due to landlords selling up. I was told no can do because I was hired to work in the office. This is BS, there is not a single part of my job I can't do remotely.0 -
My father lives in a 7 storey block in a 2bed (77 sqm) apartment. There are 4 units on each floor, 2 and 3 bedrooms. Including ground floor, there are 32 units in the block and that's in an area where you'd have 3 blocks bundled with green areas and one parking spot outside for each unit plus a bit of play for visitors. They also all have a storage space in the basement, individual units that can be locked up.
That is absolutely reasonable and pretty well planned. While it seems quite high, it's not that bad really. It's a pretty effective way to house people and since the apartments are built pretty well with concrete storeys you have little problems with noise. Just saying, 7 storeys is loads to house people comfortably and effectively. You can even do 5 and it'll be fine.
I don't disagree, the issue is & will always be that builders don't want to build them. So until they're forced to, this will for always be a pipedream barring a few exceptions.0 -
As I work in I.T. just thought I'd give my two cents on this. The company I work for has a few employees working remotely and I myself have worked remotely during sickness/emergencies. I asked them if I could move solely to remote work as they already have people doing it, I even offered to come 1-2 x per week which these people don't do as they live in different countries where the cost of living is much cheaper as I'm struggling to live in Dublin paying 40% of my salary in rent alone and having to move frequently due to landlords selling up. I was told no can do because I was hired to work in the office. This is BS, there is not a single part of my job I can't do remotely.
I had the exact same issue, Ireland is way behind the times when it comes to flexible working arrangements0 -
As I work in I.T. just thought I'd give my two cents on this. The company I work for has a few employees working remotely and I myself have worked remotely during sickness/emergencies. I asked them if I could move solely to remote work as they already have people doing it, I even offered to come 1-2 x per week which these people don't do as they live in different countries where the cost of living is much cheaper as I'm struggling to live in Dublin paying 40% of my salary in rent alone and having to move frequently due to landlords selling up. I was told no can do because I was hired to work in the office. This is BS, there is not a single part of my job I can't do remotely.
How's your python cinnamony? We're hiring...0 -
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Well, we're looking but to be honest you do need to have very solid Python. https://www.digitgaming.com/careers/job-listings/job/?id=5CC7171EC8&jobTitle=Game%20Server%20Developer if you're curious though. DM me if you're interested0
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Well, we're looking but to be honest you do need to have very solid Python. https://www.digitgaming.com/careers/job-listings/job/?id=5CC7171EC8&jobTitle=Game%20Server%20Developer if you're curious though. DM me if you're interested
In your "Living in Dublin" section you could outline that people moving to town can sleep in bunkbeds for a premium because there's not much else :pac:0 -
The cost of accommodation is a perfectly reasonable topic to discuss during salary negotiations. You might wish to mention the high cost of bunkbeds during said discussion.0
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Just reading through this is so, so depressing.
An area that is affordable, (rent or ownership) = no social life, lack of infrastructure, and no progress in life (having relationships, family, careers etc)
An area that is unaffordable,(rent or ownership) = social life, good infrastructure, but no progress in life (having relationships, family, careers etc)
Unless you are extremely lucky, there is a severe lack of progress in life no matter what or where you "choose". In other words, there is no good future for this country (or many western countries).
Everyone is in a tizzy about what they bought and own, tracker rates, taxes.......basically if you didn't "get in" before 2010-ish (or ten times better, pre-2000), you have a life with little good ahead of it. You wont hear too much from the poor basta*ds that are left behind to fund everyone else dreams. But when the owners of wealth age and turn to rely on the people who propped up their lives......it wont go the way they think/hope it will.
Unsustainability is the word du jour and this will all end disastrously. Peeping out from behind the balance sheets and tax returns is the nadir of western society. There is a correction long overdue, and it isn't just a correction of economics, but of society itself.
Hyperbole? Sure, but the writing is on the wall. Its just a matter of whether you choose to ignore it or not.
Our economy (read: house prices) is basically one giant pyramid scheme.0 -
As I work in I.T. just thought I'd give my two cents on this. The company I work for has a few employees working remotely and I myself have worked remotely during sickness/emergencies. I asked them if I could move solely to remote work as they already have people doing it, I even offered to come 1-2 x per week which these people don't do as they live in different countries where the cost of living is much cheaper as I'm struggling to live in Dublin paying 40% of my salary in rent alone and having to move frequently due to landlords selling up. I was told no can do because I was hired to work in the office. This is BS, there is not a single part of my job I can't do remotely.
I'm the same myself.
Company just couldn't be bothered letting people work from home, yet if they want you when you are sick to work they are happy for you to dial in from your sick bed and work.
I bet if the government gave a tax incentive to employers for each person that they allow to work from home things would change.
Imagine how the traffic and public transport crowding would be reduced. As well as the quality of life for all those stuck in cars and buses for hours every day. And the emissions that would dissapear .....
Oh and the effect on the housing supply in the cities too.
It would be like a new world.
It's the one thing a minister could do to change the quality of life of citizens overnight.
Too sensible though.0 -
I'm the same myself.
Company just couldn't be bothered letting people work from home, yet if they want you when you are sick to work they are happy for you to dial in from your sick bed and work.
I bet if the government gave a tax incentive to employers for each person that they allow to work from home things would change.
Imagine how the traffic and public transport crowding would be reduced. As well as the quality of life for all those stuck in cars and buses for hours every day. And the emissions that would dissapear .....
Oh and the effect on the housing supply in the cities too.
It would be like a new world.
It's the one thing a minister could do to change the quality of life of citizens overnight.
Too sensible though.
It all sounds good, depending on how long term you think.
Lets pretend that there are only two counties in the country, Westmeath and Dublin. Suppose that a majority of people in Dublin were allowed to work from home.
Naturally, a lot of people would choose to escape the unsustainability of living in Dublin and move to Westmeath. Sounds good!
But then the prices in Westmeath match the growth in people moving there eventually, so its back to square one.
This idea of remote working as a solution depends entirely on a closed system. Ie that 100 people live in Dublin, and 50 in Westmeath. If it equalises, then there would be 75 in each county therefore Dublin gets a little less expensive and Westmeath gets a little more expensive. If you are only thinking of yourself, then it would work out well in the short term, but the "system" will catch up soon enough.
But its NOT a closed system anyway. As soon as some people move out of Dublin, others move in to take their place from abroad.
So the only change over time is that Westmeath becomes more expensive, AND Dublin maintains its ridiculous trajectory.
This is globalisation, and as I said above, and it is bang on the button.......this is a pyramid scheme we are all living in. There is only horizontal movement, no vertical movement. It is an ill society.0 -
It all sounds good, depending on how long term you think.
Lets pretend that there are only two counties in the country, Westmeath and Dublin. Suppose that a majority of people in Dublin were allowed to work from home.
Naturally, a lot of people would choose to escape the unsustainability of living in Dublin and move to Westmeath. Sounds good!
But then the prices in Westmeath match the growth in people moving there eventually, so its back to square one.
This idea of remote working as a solution depends entirely on a closed system. Ie that 100 people live in Dublin, and 50 in Westmeath. If it equalises, then there would be 75 in each county therefore Dublin gets a little less expensive and Westmeath gets a little more expensive. If you are only thinking of yourself, then it would work out well in the short term, but the "system" will catch up soon enough.
But its NOT a closed system anyway. As soon as some people move out of Dublin, others move in to take their place from abroad.
So the only change over time is that Westmeath becomes more expensive, AND Dublin maintains its ridiculous trajectory.
This is globalisation, and as I said above, and it is bang on the button.......this is a pyramid scheme we are all living in. There is only horizontal movement, no vertical movement. It is an ill society.
This is kind of true, but not entirely.
Why would tonnes of foreign people move to Dublin? If they had no links to Ireland they would remote work from a village in Leitrim & save an absolute fortune.
Additionally your hypothesis above presumes no more houses are built, if demand for housing was spread more evenly throughout the country we'd be sitting pretty, rather than all pressure on 3/4 counties, it would hopefully be split around 26 there wouldn't be as much upwards pressure there as there would be downward pressure in Dublin.
Having said all of this, I don't see a radical change in working environments in my lifetime, majority will always work in the office & the majority will always live in the GDA
Re your pyramid scheme point, I think you may be referring to Ponzi, but it's not one of those either. Property is an underlying tangible asset0 -
Mickiemcfist wrote: »This is kind of true, but not entirely.
Why would tonnes of foreign people move to Dublin? If they had no links to Ireland they would remote work from a village in Leitrim & save an absolute fortune.
Additionally your hypothesis above presumes no more houses are built, if demand for housing was spread more evenly throughout the country we'd be sitting pretty, rather than all pressure on 3/4 counties, it would hopefully be split around 26 there wouldn't be as much upwards pressure there as there would be downward pressure in Dublin.
Having said all of this, I don't see a radical change in working environments in my lifetime, majority will always work in the office & the majority will always live in the GDA
Re your pyramid scheme point, I think you may be referring to Ponzi, but it's not one of those either. Property is an underlying tangible asset
Its a general statement of course.
I think the reality of the situation is that not nearly enough houses are being built anyway, so its a moot point. Its not going to happen because it is FAR too profitable to change the system.
Also, tonnes of foreign people HAVE moved to Dublin, and will continue to do so. "Foreign" people can refer to immigrant pressure like people trying to move from D.8 to D.4, from Dundalk to Dublin, from Italy to Ireland, from non-EU to EU. Its all the same principle.
Just imagine that it was as easy and profitable to work from Leitrim as it is Dublin.......can you imagine the immigration?! And the effect that would have on Leitrim?
And I stick by my pyramid scheme/Ponzi analogy, it is absolutely true. If you were lucky enough to have bought/inherited a home (or more than 1!) pre-2000, you have made GIGANTIC profits, whether that be through rent or simple "asset" accumulation.
Now tell me how someone today could make similar strides. If a typical house cost 30k during the 90's and is now floating around 300k (for arguments sake), and can make a rent of say 10k a year (ie, 33% annual return on rents versus capital investment).........
today, to equal that upward mobility, you would need to spend 300k, have it accrue in value to 3 million, and be able to rent it out for 30k a year. Does that sound likely to ever happen?
Its a pyramid scheme, full stop.0 -
Its a general statement of course.I think the reality of the situation is that not nearly enough houses are being built anyway, so its a moot point. Its not going to happen because it is FAR too profitable to change the system.
I work in the business of financing construction projects, a lot of what I say on boards is opinion, but I can tell you categorically that developers would make a fortune if there was suddenly upward demand outside of Dublin.Also, tonnes of foreign people HAVE moved to Dublin, and will continue to do so. "Foreign" people can refer to immigrant pressure like people trying to move from D.8 to D.4, from Dundalk to Dublin, from Italy to Ireland, from non-EU to EU. Its all the same principle.
Obviously people have moved to Dublin. We were discussing the impact mass work from home setups would have, in which case there would be no motivation for immigrants to live in Dublin other than liking the city.
Again you're completely missing the point, I picked one example out of 26 possible counties, immigration would be more evenly spread than it currently is, therefore less impact on one particular area.] Just imagine that it was as easy and profitable to work from Leitrim as it is Dublin.......can you imagine the immigration?! And the effect that would have on LeitrimAnd I stick by my pyramid scheme/Ponzi analogy, it is absolutely true. If you were lucky enough to have bought/inherited a home (or more than 1!) pre-2000, you have made GIGANTIC profits, whether that be through rent or simple "asset" accumulation.
Honestly, Google what a pyramid or Ponzi scheme is. While you're at it, look at Google stock pre 2000 prices & compare that to now....does that mean Google is a Ponzi scheme? Because someone could have made a fortune on dividends (see rent), or asset growth.Now tell me how someone today could make similar strides. If a typical house cost 30k during the 90's and is now floating around 300k (for arguments sake), and can make a rent of say 10k a year (ie, 33% annual return on rents versus capital investment).........
today, to equal that upward mobility, you would need to spend 300k, have it accrue in value to 3 million, and be able to rent it out for 30k a year. Does that sound likely to ever happen?
In 1970 the average Irish house was worth c.3k punt, 20 years later they had increased ten fold to 30k. If you'd asked someone in 1990 do they think that in 16 years they would rise ten fold again they would have told you nobody in the world could afford to pay 300k for a house. - So yes, with the power of inflation I do believe there is every chance that some day the average house will be 3m.
No I think it's a deck chair, full stop......Its a pyramid scheme, full stop.
*me saying full stop without any points accurately proving it to be a deck chair, doesn't make it a deck chair0 -
Thinking most people should work from home is a bit of a fantasy I think.
It is not just a matter of whether a job can technically be performed remotely. Humans need social interaction and a company needs to create a sense community within its staff.
Having fully remote staff in specific situations and more flexibility for the rest is the way things are going. But everyone working remote won’t work.0 -
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