Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

Calibos

How quick can Amazon deliver snow grips for shoes and snow socks for tyres??

Fecking typical though. I've always said when it came time to change the tyres on my car I'd buy those new amazing Michelin Cross Climate which are better than all season tyres as they are 95% as good as a Summer tyre in the Summer and 95% as good as a Winter Tyre in the Winter but last as long as a Summer tyre. Summer 2017 was the when the tyre finally needed changing. After planning the Cross Climate upgrade for so many years I said feck it at the last minute and ordered another set of Summers because sure.......when are we ever going to get 2010 level or beating snow again?????....Well the very next Winter as it turns out!! ARRGGHH!!

tiegan

Kudos to Kermit for starting this thread - I missed Ophelia as I was in NZ at the time and had to watch from afar. Even if it never happens, this is a great thread and the excitement is building!! But a bit like watching a slow motion car crash, with your hands covering your face sneaking a peek through your fingers in case it actually happens. Impossible to stay away from the thread for more than an hour or so, in case I miss something. Although as I work night shifts, this page will probably be "50 Shades of Gray" by tomorrow night, word porn at the very least!! Thanks to all who put so much hard work in so that some of us hangers on get all the good bits. Particularly to MT who is a bit of a hero in my book.

Calibos

Pray that I don't have to whip out this jpg in anger next week!

Rougies

Calibos wrote: »

How quick can Amazon deliver snow grips for shoes and snow socks for tyres??

Fecking typical though. I've always said when it came time to change the tyres on my car I'd buy those new amazing Michelin Cross Climate which are better than all season tyres as they are 95% as good as a Summer tyre in the Summer and 95% as good as a Winter Tyre in the Winter but last as long as a Summer tyre. Summer 2017 was the when the tyre finally needed changing. After planning the Cross Climate upgrade for so many years I said feck it at the last minute and ordered another set of Summers because sure.......when are we ever going to get 2010 level or beating snow again?????....Well the very next Winter as it turns out!! ARRGGHH!!

You'll be grand with the summer tyres, IOM and Anglesey shadows will see to that.

Cantona's Collars

Was offline for the evening, I pop in for a gander at the possibility of snow next week and see the place going bananas.
Everyone down my way is getting into full on Spring mode,they are in for a serious fright if what's showing in the models comes to pass.

Calibos

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Was offline for the evening, I pop in for a gander at the possibility of snow next week and see the place going bananas.
Everyone down my way is getting into full on Spring mode,they are in for a serious fright if what's showing in the models comes to pass.

Me too. This morning last time I'd checked in the FI Model thread there was simply cautious optimism. Log back into boards tonight and everyone's going bananas. Have to admit I got butterflies while catching up on the FI thread and Kermits 6 hour old 20 page monster thread.

BLIZZARD7

00z GFS in quicker again, -10C 850s in on sunday, first flurries in the east by sunday evening...

BLIZZARD7

00z UKMO is in agreement - has -12c uppers or lower into the east by 1am Monday - Pressure a bit high for much shower activity yet though.

Rougies

Yup, everything still looking great on the night watch blizzard7!

BLIZZARD7

Solid continuation altogether this morning - All the models look sublime, Very Cold air in by Sunday evening.

GFS very solid the last few days.



GEM is insane - So much snow
Edit : GFS is almost identical at +200hrs to the GEM, you would be hard pushed to draw a better chart for a snowy setup for Ireland - The whole east coast and south are going to get pummeled if we see these charts become reality...

M.T. Cranium

Would not rule out some forward advance of this cold spell as latest analysis shows consolidation of the polar high between 90 and 60 E, weak features that models may be trying to resolve just ahead of this building high could be overanalyzed and what is supposed to happen around Sunday-Monday could get moved up to Friday-Saturday if this gets moving a bit faster. Absence of downgrades sometimes correlates with faster schedules too.

munsterlegend

Met Eireann taking a further walk into the dark side with their outlook update with possible snow in east and south coasts by the weekend on.

http://m.met.ie/forecast-national.aspx

JanuarySnowstor

While everyone will see snow the biggest risk seems to be south and east coasts which of course includes cork and Dublin.
For corkonians the fact that the wind is southeast should pile the showers our way.....
High impact stuff possible

kod87

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

While everyone will see snow the biggest risk seems to be south and east coasts which of course includes cork and Dublin.
For corkonians the fact that the wind is southeast should pile the showers our way.....
High impact stuff possible

Really? What makes you say that. At the moment the models are indicating there might be showers in coastal regions of NE,E and possibly S coast (depending on wind direction). However, there is no indication at this moment of anything more widespread other than coastal showers and very cold temperatures.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

While everyone will see snow the biggest risk seems to be south and east coasts which of course includes cork and Dublin.
For corkonians the fact that the wind is southeast should pile the showers our way.....
High impact stuff possible

Hopefully there is enough power to bring those showers inland!

force eleven

Not liking this mornings ECM so far. Slowing things down and pushing the cold further south again, just like it did yesterday morning. Run isn't complete yet so caveats etc.

M.T. Cranium

Kind of reminds one of a swimmer at a beach dealing with cold water but day 8 appears to be a wave -- stay in or run for the towel, buddy.

George Sunsnow

force eleven wrote: »

Not liking this mornings ECM so far. Slowing things down and pushing the cold further south again, just like it did yesterday morning. Run isn't complete yet so caveats etc.

It’s grand
Tuesday -11 850s into the east in northeasterlies
Snowmageddon
Similar out to the end
UKMO even colder

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

It’s grand
Tuesday -11 850s into the east in northeasterlies
Snowmageddon
Similar out to the end
UKMO even colder

Just looks a slower evolution. The cold is not going south into continental Europe which is always my fear.

force eleven

George Sunsnow wrote: »

It’s grand
Tuesday -11 850s into the east in northeasterlies
Snowmageddon
Similar out to the end
UKMO even colder

The fetch from the east looks flabbier though. One run, and we can expect this to happen on the way. I'll go back to those lovely GFS charts for comfort and reassurance :-)

Surinam

force eleven wrote: »

The fetch from the east looks flabbier though. One run, and we can expect this to happen on the way. I'll go back to those lovely GFS charts for comfort and reassurance :-)

It shows you how spoilt we have been by these stellar runs that anyone could find the ECM disappointing!1 week ago we would have had a heart attack seeing something as potent coming our way!

M.T. Cranium

Yes but anything could be happening inside that 1005 mb low on day 9, how accurate would we expect that evolution to be at nine days? It appears to be a polar eddy moving southwest and colliding with the over-running of the Iberian winter storm, and just saying Iberian winter storm has me reaching for the strong stuff.

M.T. Cranium

Did you just hear a loud WTF from the distant west? (or east?)

Day ten ECM -- retreat to a soundproof room and take a peek.

George Sunsnow

Surinam wrote: »

It shows you how spoilt we have been by these stellar runs that anyone could find the ECM disappointing!1 week ago we would have had a heart attack seeing something as potent coming our way!

Aye into March slack northeasterly
Low pressure
-12 uppers
Every other parameter checked
Lordy

M.T. Cranium

That is a similar evolution to 24 Feb 1933 (just reading about that and looking at maps the other day), weak low turns southeast and intensifies off south coast, only in that case the analysis did not show nearly this depth of cold air -- verbatim, this map for day ten (00z 2 March) would have the potential of a major blizzard-like snowstorm over the southern two-thirds of the country.

Too bad there's no day eleven available but you would have to figure that the low is on its way to central Britain with winds turning northerly over Ireland, no warm advection likely, continued snowfall.

Well, these are only maps in the mind of a computer model. Reality might be quite a bit different but the key thing is, -12 C uppers and various models saying moderate or even strong wind gradients at times, makes the broad picture one of widespread snow possibilities.

kod87

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Did you just hear a loud WTF from the distant west? (or east?)

Day ten ECM -- retreat to a soundproof room and take a peek.

I don't think I've ever seen MT so excited

munsterlegend

I have never seen such charts across the board on a day after day basis. I have been confident about something special as Met Office UK have been signalling this easterly since early February and they have been using phrases such as significant snowfall. Next week could be very very special.

teddybones

kod87 wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen MT so excited

Him and everyone else in here. I eventually got to sleep but was seeing model graphics in all my dreams. Feeling a bit shakey after seeing this mornings runs. Bring it on.

kod87

the latter frames of the ECM are just EPIC, simply unbelievable

SeaBreezes

ECM day 10 is snowmageden. I have to remind myself it's Fantasy Island...