Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

KingdomRushed

I think I can stomach the slight delay on ECM if it brings the 1 in 100 year snow storm. What are we actually looking at here.

My only concern is still that this is still a few days out, though the trend appears almost unstoppable

munsterlegend

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ECM day 10 is snowmageden. I have to remind myself it's Fantasy Island...

Yeah which means it will probably stay that way. The cold seems certain at this stage. How snowy it will be is anyone's guess.

NMB

“Tuesday, 20 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT -- A spell of severe winter weather is now considered very likely starting around Sunday 25th and lasting perhaps a week or longer. Details are of course sketchy but the depth of cold air apparently heading west towards Ireland would suggest that temperatures could be well below freezing, and that snowfall is a strong possibility in the east, south and perhaps coastal areas of north and west as well, and we are seeing some charts on the most reliable models that are real jaw-droppers for snowfall potential, so be aware and check for updates, there is still a slight chance of a less intense outcome but with all global models marching in lock-step towards this scenario, confidence is growing.” Nowwwww I’m loosing my tiny mind !!!

pad199207

At this stage now it would have to be a huge downgrade now. Easily the most synoptically beautiful model runs I have ever seen.

Wine Goddess

pad199207 wrote: »

After this evenings runs i think the only thing that stands between us and probably the strongest easterly in decades is Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The setup cannot be faulted.

Id say if the same setup is being modelled through tomorrow this thread will likely be 20 pages long by tomorrow evening.......

It's 26 pages long (on mobile) now!!!! :-)

pad199207

Wine Goddess wrote: »

It's 26 pages long (on mobile) now!!!! :-)

Lol anyone want to hazard a guess of how many Pages it will be at 21:00 this evening ?

mirrorwall14

Change your settings! It’s only 8 pages long on mobile for me

sryanbruen

It's 21 pages on PC for me.

I thought I'd see more.

M.T. Cranium

kod87 wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen MT so excited

Well I am not going to experience this directly so less excited than perhaps concerned over the possible impacts this spell could have -- if there are five hundred people in Ireland who actually want this weather to happen, I know all of them by internet screen name.

(well most of them)

I can't really see how the models could totally blow the basic picture here, the details of course might be different, but essentially they are all saying big high northern Europe, broad easterly flow, very cold air moving west, eventually overwhelming the whole Atlantic basin and linking to a Greenland blocking high.

Have seen weaker examples that busted (we all have) but this one? Something wintry is going to happen.

M.T. Cranium

pad199207 wrote: »

Lol anyone want to hazard a guess of how many Pages it will be at 21:00 this evening ?

It's not possible to predict stuff like that. :pac:

62.

Liffey4A

Any chance boards.ie Techs can fix the issues that plague the forum during events like this?
The forum usually grinds to a halt and makes getting updates difficult.
It's a pity because it's exactly when people need the information

beefburrito

So I wonder, will this be a 1947,1963,2018 event ?

Beechwoodspark

Joanne d gave forecast this morning and all she said was it’s unclear beyond the weekend but it may be cold. Is she underplaying it to hedge her forecast or what?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Joanne d gave forecast this morning and all she said was it’s unclear beyond the weekend but it may be cold. Is she underplaying it to hedge her forecast or what?

Its still quite far out

If she was doing that on Friday or Saturday it would be one thing but think its the right way to go for now

pad199207

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Joanne d gave forecast this morning and all she said was it’s unclear beyond the weekend but it may be cold. Is she underplaying it to hedge her forecast or what?

She is playing it safe and I wouldn’t blame her. If it happens the way the models say it is going to happen it will be another noteworthy disruptive event. Akin to Ophelia.

snowbabe

Well I'm extremely excited and even more hugely grateful to all the knowledgeable posters here. I also have learned a lot from you all and those beautifully coloured charts. I for one just thank and try not to clog thread with my uneducated waffle to allow you all to post and part your infinite wisdom to us mere mortals . Many thanks again and here's to a good few sleepless exciting nights .

up for anything

I've just wandered into this off the back of M.T.'s daily forecast and it's the first I've read of it (my laptop was in the hospital). I haven't the time this week to delve into the thread and work out the dates and the extent of the cold/snow expected from the model runs to date.

Would some kind soul please take pity on me and post (I know it's impossible to predict accurately this far out) date beginning... this DAY 10 (Is that day ten from now or day ten of the cold spell?) that the last couple of pages have mentioned and what sort of minus figures cold and how much snow we're looking at. I promise I won't sue if we don't get it. In fact, I'd be really happy. It's just that next week is a bit of nightmare already for me and I have five people relying on me to organise them, some dependent on public transport, and I'd sooner prepare for the worst and have over-prepared rather than be caught on the hop. I also need to travel but don't want to be stuck and not able to get home to some minors. I can cancel ahead if I think I'd sooner not be stressed nearer the time but cancelling a day ahead will not be looked on kindly regardless if the entire country is buried under 50' of snow.

Please and thank you, I hope.

Call me Al

Are you all expecting this to actually come to decent fruition? And not just be a damp squib with snizzle that passes within 2 hours?
Are the charts showing this event to be decent in duration?
I know ...so many questions. And I'm waiting for one of the resident killjoys to come along any moment now to ruin the anticipation :-))))

gerrybhoy

Call me Al wrote: »

Are you all expecting this to actually come to decent fruition? And not just be a damp squid with snizzle that passes within 2 hours?
Are the charts showing this event to be decent in duration?
I know ...so many questions. And I'm waiting for one of the resident killjoys to come along any moment now to ruin the anticipation :-))))

just get your BBQ out

Macy0161

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Joanne d gave forecast this morning and all she said was it’s unclear beyond the weekend but it may be cold. Is she underplaying it to hedge her forecast or what?

The BBC forecast I saw last night was going with "looking like turning increasingly colder after the weekend". They can't ramp it too much until the outcome is more certain. When Met Éireann role out the Eagle for Morning Ireland, then we'll know it's serious!

Beechwoodspark

kingshankly wrote: »

It’s a week away for Christ sake anything could happen hardly expect her to mention snow storms and get the country in a fret

That’s my point. We have the knowledgeable people on this very excited about what’s coming down the tracks so I was wondering why the professionals at met eireann are hedging their forecast.

And if “anything could happen” why are ppl getting so excited about the charts???

Villain

Anyone expecting Met Eireann to forecast on FI charts is a little deluded

The charts are amazing and they have been consistent but it is still FI, people need to relax and when the downgrades come (they always do) people will also need to stay calm.

I would suggest technical discussion stays in FI thread for charts and then a new technical thread once the charts become closer as this thread will be overcome with "will it snow IMBY" soon enough.

gabeeg

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That’s my point. We have the knowledgeable people on this very excited about what’s coming down the tracks so I was wondering why the professionals at met eireann are hedging their forecast.

And if “anything could happen” why are ppl getting so excited about the charts???

There's still time for this to go pear-shaped, but it's looking increasingly likely to happen.

The regular members of this forum suffer this conversation every few months. Just saying.

Akrasia

Villain wrote: »

Anyone expecting Met Eireann to forecast on FI charts is a little deluded

The charts are amazing and they have been consistent but it is still FI, people need to relax and when the downgrades come (they always do) people will also need to stay calm.

I would suggest technical discussion stays in FI thread for charts and then a new technical thread once the charts become closer as this thread will be overcome with "will it snow IMBY" soon enough.

This thread is such a damp squid. I'm looking out my window now and not a snowflake to be seen

gabeeg

Akrasia wrote: »

This thread is such a damp squid. I'm looking out my window now and not a snowflake to be seen

Squib, dude. Squib.

All squids are damp by nature

munsterlegend

Akrasia wrote: »

This thread is such a damp squid. I'm looking out my window now and not a snowflake to be seen

I suppose the thread title might explain that!

JCX BXC

Just catching up from last night, I told myself that I'd look at the ECM and GFS first myself before reading the thread. Was shocked again. Just 5 days out now, getting fairly locked in.

pauldry

Yes this could turn into a damp squid

But its mighty craic

Incidentally no met eireannweather forecast predicted temperatures below zero this morning yet its -2c in Athenry and was below zero in parts of Sligo

_Kaiser_

At the risk of being a spoilsport.... Seriously am I the only one not "excited" by this idea?

I remember 2010..traffic chaos, massive heating bills, the entire country slowly grinding to a halt because we don't plan ahead as a rule, always react late and not enough, and never learn from the experience.

Remember this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLM9xHmLGHE

Yea, fun times!

It might be fun if you're a kid who gets a few days off school, but if you've to work or do things in that sort of weather it's a disaster.

mikeecho

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That’s my point. We have the knowledgeable people on this very excited about what’s coming down the tracks so I was wondering why the professionals at met eireann are hedging their forecast.

And if “anything could happen” why are ppl getting so excited about the charts???

Met eireann hedge their bets , until the last minute, because other agencies act on what they forecast.
And if they forecast too far in advance, and things don't pan out, then they look like fools, and companies /factories / schools / businesses may have organised shut downs.
City corporations & county council's will have made certain arrangements etc etc.

Met Eireann, will only state what they can be pretty certain of, and only give notice that is as far ahead , that they can confidently stand over.

No-one congratulates them on being correct, but when they get is wrong.... its open season on them.